Front Page: Maybe the Twins Bullpen is Actually Good?

[twins1095]

I really like the way our bullpen has been developing between Rogers/Romo/Dyson/Duffey/May.  I think that group can definitely lock down the 7th-9th on a consistent basis.

 

I really like the idea of bringing up Graterol/Alcala/Colina in September and potentially adding 1-2 of them to the playoff roster.  While all will likely be raw and hard to trust in high-leverage situations, I really like the idea of pitchers with that kind of stuff taking the 5th-6th innings.  

 

From there we can tell our non-Berrios SPs...don't worry, we just need you to get through 4-5 innings with 1-2 runs minimum.  The pen has got it from there.

[Mike Sixel]

It's clear the bullpen is a stars and scrubs group, or at least it was before all the DFA action.

 

Now? The two new additions add depth and talent for sure. I have no idea if any of the less experienced players are good or not, just not enough data.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And O'Rourke is not pitching like someone who should earn a spot. Frankly, I wouldn't call him up in September either, unless there is a roster spot for him somewhere, once Graterol uses that 40th spot. 

To be fair, O'Rourke is being deployed to eat innings for Rochester right now, so we probably can't use those results to judge how he'd fare as a strict LOOGY.

 

If we're planning to drop a guy like Diplan or Stewart eventually anyway, I could possibly see us doing that in September and adding O'Rourke as a strict LOOGY down the stretch. Of course, we'll have something like a 15-man bullpen by that time anyway, so it may not be worth the effort! May be better to sneak Alcala onto the 40-man on Aug. 31, along with Graterol, and let them both audition for possible postseason inclusion.

[Squirrel]

 

To be fair, O'Rourke is being deployed to eat innings for Rochester right now, so we probably can't use those results to judge how he'd fare as a strict LOOGY.

 

If we're planning to drop a guy like Diplan or Stewart eventually anyway, I could possibly see us doing that in September and adding O'Rourke as a strict LOOGY down the stretch. Of course, we'll have something like a 15-man bullpen by that time anyway, so it may not be worth the effort! May be better to sneak Alcala onto the 40-man on Aug. 31, along with Graterol, and let them both audition for possible postseason inclusion.

This is what I want to happen ... Graterol and/or Alcala. I'm okay if they feel they need to add O'Rourke into the mix, (because honestly, I don't know better than those making these decisions, regardless of my opinion) and find a 40-man spot for him ... but not instead of at least one of Graterol or Alcala. I'm not going to get out a pitchfork, as someone above suggested, but I would be ... disappointed. (And I'll keep my mantra handy ... 'This is just a game, this is just a game, this is just a game ... )

[bird]

 

A bullpen always looks good if you're getting 5-7 innings from your starters.

 

 

Maybe not always, but you make a good point. The difference between bad and good is often the difference between overworked and rested.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

But will they add him to the roster before that, so he can be used in post-season games? If that 39th spot goes to, well, O'Rourke, who hasn't really been performing all that well in AAA, then, hmmm.

They can't call him up in September unless he's added to the 40-man, which qualifies him to pitch in the postseason (Aug 31 deadline for the 40-man addition, I think?).

 

If they're going to promote him at all, that's the only way that makes sense. Otherwise, why bother?

[yarnivek1972]

The only issue of concern to me about O’Rourke is that he has been walking too many LHB. He’s walked 14 of 83 LHB faced in 2019. That’s at least double what it should be. LHB don’t hit him well at all. That’s at AAA and MLB over the last 3 years.

 

But I don’t think the Twins would have picked up O’Rourke to be AAA fill. Plenty of pitchers were DFA in July/early August. You pick up O’Rourke to fill a need.

[Squirrel]

 

They can't call him up in September unless he's added to the 40-man, which qualifies him to pitch in the postseason (Aug 31 deadline for the 40-man addition, I think?).

 

If they're going to promote him at all, that's the only way that makes sense. Otherwise, why bother?

Okay, well, duh. Yeah. I tripped over myself badly there. I just would really hate to see O'Rourke being the only one added. If they add and call up O'Rourke, I'd like to see at least one of Graterol or Alcala get that, too. But if it's O'Rourke instead of either one of them, ugh, I don't like that. But I'm not going to get my pitchfork out, either. Life goes on.

[bighat]

Romo's been pretty good. Gotta admit that something about him throwing in those 80 MPH frisbees makes me very nervous. Can't argue with results though!

[Darius]

Good is about right. Not great. There are a lot of solid pieces (Rogers, Dyson, Romo, Duffey, May), and everyone seems to be going relatively well right now.

 

There isn’t a run of consistently dominant guys, like you see at the back-end of the Yankees bullpen. With Chapman, Britton, Ottavino, Kahnle, and once healthy Betnances, lined up in the playoffs, they have a huge advantage over anyone. But, I think we’re just as good or better as any other serious playoff contender right now.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Darius

[Darius]

Romo's been pretty good. Gotta admit that something about him throwing in those 80 MPH frisbees makes me very nervous. Can't argue with results though!

It does look funny from our perspective. From a hitters perspective, the lateral movement on that pitch is wild. I have some first-hand experience that causes me to appreciate that pitch:

 

I caught a guy in high school who had an unbelievable slider/slurve that looked similar to Romo’s in terms of directional movement. Great, great pitcher. Romo’s breaking ball is much better, no doubt, but it reminds of me of his and it was good enough to get plenty of attention from pro scouts. He eventually got drafted in some obscure round because he was giving up baseball after high school to play college football (great receiver as well).

 

It was very difficult to catch, let alone hit. Amazing that a ball can move like that. I saw on multiple occasions hitters totally bail, once or twice even going to the ground, only to have the pitch break over for a strike. Swings would look silly. I don’t recall anyone making solid contact. It looks like a fastball that takes a violent left turn about halfway to the plate, breaking what seemed like multiple feet. It almost seemed to change speeds suddenly mid-flight. A devastating pitch.

 

I picture Romo’s a perfect version of that pitch, breaking even more sharply. People just can’t hit that.

Edited August 29, 2019 by Darius

[Otto von Ballpark]

But I don’t think the Twins would have picked up O’Rourke to be AAA fill. Plenty of pitchers were DFA in July/early August. You pick up O’Rourke to fill a need.

DFA guys aren't necessarily O'Rourke comparables/replacements -- they might require a waiver claim and a 40-man spot. That's not AAA fill. All of the Twins DFA guys were claimed or got MLB deals -- Morin, Mejia, Magill, Parker, even Eades.

[nicksaviking]

Why don't they 60-day Nick Gordon to open up a 2nd spot? Add Graterol and Alcala, or O'Rourke if people still like LOOGY's. Which I don't but could be convinced of with an expanded roster.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Why don't they 60-day Nick Gordon to open up a 2nd spot? Add Graterol and Alcala, or O'Rourke if people still like LOOGY's. Which I don't but could be convinced of with an expanded roster.

They could do that, and Gordon is the best candidate (the other injured minor leaguers are too close to returning).

 

And they would have to do it by Aug. 31, because Gordon won't be able to spend the full 60 days on the MLB DL before the postseason as required by the rule that allows for injury replacements.

[Riverbrian]

 

FIP isn’t the only area where Twins relievers shine. According to FanGraphs’ version of WAR, Minnesota’s relievers have accumulated 5.4 WAR, which is tied with Tampa Bay for the second most in baseball. The Yankees have accumulated the most WAR (6.8), but both the Rays and the Yankees have over 530 relief innings. Meanwhile, the Twins had yet to crack the 450 mark, which is the eighth fewest in baseball.

 

 

 

I agree with you Cody on what you seem to be suggesting. When you look at the total numbers, the bullpen has performed decently as a collective unit.

 

The numbers certainly suggest that torches and pitchforks are not necessary. 

 

However... I've made this point and similar points for a long time.

 

The bullpen is in inch deep. The starting rotation is in inch deep. 

 

The starters have carried the bulk of the water, you illustrate this with your post of total relief Innings pitched. The Yankees and Rays have rotation question marks and a deep bullpen so they are using the pen more than we do. Our starters have masked possible bullpen issues by staying healthy and pitching deep into games. .  

 

If anything changes in that equation (Injuries or bad performance from the starters). The bullpen will have to show that it can handle the additional responsibility like the Yankees and Rays currently do.  

 

If the bullpen were to suffer an injury to one of the key 5... who will rise up to fill the role.... will it become the key 4 by default... What happens if it becomes the key 4. 

 

I agree that the bullpen has performed decently for what we have asked for them... what happens when we ask more of them? 

[darin617]

I am very happy with what I have seen from Sergio Romo.

 

Great veteran leadership for starters and the fact that he has all those WS rings.

 

I hope he would be interested in resigning with the Twins this winter.

 

I also love the interviews.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

It’s good the Twins picked up Dyson and some of their internal options are working out. If things hold as they are now, the Twins can largely ignore the bullpen this offseason and focus on the rotation, which is a hot mess going into the 2020 season.

 

It's actually not that bad, when you think about it.  Berrios is a given, but I think Perez is likely to have his option picked up--$7.5M feels totally reasonable for a pitcher with 1.7 WAR this year (57th in baseball amongst pitchers with 130+ IP; he's also 55th in FIP and 52nd in xFIP), so long as he's your 4th/5th starter.  Extend the QO on Pineda (if you can, I'm not sure if he's eligible) or Odorizzi, and you're left with only 2 spots, one of which will be filled by Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak/Poppen.  Is it a great rotation?  No--but you're not getting to great until either Graterol/Ober/Balazovic are succeeding in the Majors, or Jim Pohald opens the pocketbook.

 

Because of that, I have a sneaking suspicion Falvine doubles down on the lineup and looks for under the radar rotation moves, counting on trading for pieces in July, or prospect emergence to round the staff into playoff form.

[Mike Sixel]

It's actually not that bad, when you think about it. Berrios is a given, but I think Perez is likely to have his option picked up--$7.5M feels totally reasonable for a pitcher with 1.7 WAR this year (57th in baseball amongst pitchers with 130+ IP; he's also 55th in FIP and 52nd in xFIP), so long as he's your 4th/5th starter. Extend the QO on Pineda (if you can, I'm not sure if he's eligible) or Odorizzi, and you're left with only 2 spots, one of which will be filled by Smeltzer/Thorpe/Dobnak/Poppen. Is it a great rotation? No--but you're not getting to great until either Graterol/Ober/Balazovic are succeeding in the Majors, or Jim Pohald opens the pocketbook.

 

Because of that, I have a sneaking suspicion Falvine doubles down on the lineup and looks for under the radar rotation moves, counting on trading for pieces in July, or prospect emergence to round the staff into playoff form.

You will be lucky to get two thirds of a year from Pineda. Perez? So, basically the same rotation?

[DocBauer]

With this bullpen, I'd normally still want some strong upgrades. But after what looked to be a bumper crop of free agent relievers nearly all turn to dust league-wide, yeah, I might consider the bullpen build going forward to be an built atypically.

While SSS and nothing yet proven, I have been pleased and amazed that virtually every single young arm brought up has performed quite well: Littell, Poppen, Stashak, Smeltzer, Thorpe and now Dobnak.

 

While I feel Smeltzer and Thorpe are still SP options, and good ones, there are a couple nice looking BP arms I just listed. Not throw Alcala in there and find me a LH and I'm feeling pretty happy about the 2020 pen at this point.

[LFRGary]

Actually, I think that the Twins' bullpen improvement is tied directly to the Twins acquisition. Prior to his acquisition, May was inconsistent & Duffey spent too much time nibbling & trying to throw the perfect pitch.

 

After Romo's acquisition, Duffey's used his fastball more effectively & it's showed. May has been more effective, too. He's been more confident lately.

 

I think these think are tied together. Romo is to the bullpen what NC23 has been to the batting order.

[longstrangetrip]

 

Get the pitchforks ready. I'm guessing we see Littell and/or O'Rourke before Graterol come play-off time.

I'm glad you mentioned Littell.  In his last 18 appearances (dating back to June 18), he's only given up a run once...that's phenomenal!  Add May and Littell to the Big 4, and I certainly agree with the OP's premise that we have a very good bullpen.  Kudos to the front office once again.

[jimbo92107]

I'll take one of Smeltzer / Thorpe...probably Smeltzer for long relief, to eat innings with shockingly few runs allowed. Smelt is a little more Show-ready. Then I'll take one of Graterol / Alcala, probably Graterol because of that nifty heater and sub-2 ERA as a reliever in the minors. Gotta have a hot arm to blow away pesky batters in close games. 

 

Otherwise, I like this bullpen. They're not perfect, but they're all veterans, and I have seen each of them dominate. I was worried earlier about May and Duffey, but both men have made excellent adjustments after mid-season. Romo is a wizard, Dyson is a bully, and Rogers just blows hitters away like there's no chance. 

 

Hat tip to Littell, Dobnak, Stashak, and Poppen. Each of these guys could be a very good mlb pitcher. Littell impressed the most early on. Dobnak has the look of a long-term pro.

[wabene]

Dobnak has the look of a long-term pro.

It's the mustache, amirite?

[Brandon]

I did want to add that Parker, Morin, and Magill have been solid with their new teams. Only Mejia is still struggling.

[DocBauer]

Did a little digging in regards to stats for RP on different AL teams. Found some interesting comparisons, though I don't know if this thread is going to die or not.

 

PITCHER ERA IP AVG WHIP BB SO

 

Britton 2.15 54 .188 1.21 31 45

Clippard 2.47 51 .176 .80 10 50

Harris 1.74 52 .209 1.01 13 52

Duffey 2.74 46 .209 1.11 14 60

May 3.20 51 .194 1.16 23 62

 

I chose Britton, Clippard and Harris rather deliberately. (Harris, from Houston, could be argued somewhat due to the injury to Pressly). I chose these 3 deliberately because they are on top AL contending teams with reputed strong bullpens. I also chose them, rather deliberately, as overall game appearances and IP marked each as the #3 option in their respective pens. It could be argued, back and forth, that pre and post acquisition of Dyson and Romo, that each of Duffey and May were/are the 3rd-5th option in the bullpen.

 

This not to state the Twins have a lethal pen. But I think it offers up additional perspective just how good Duffey and May have been this season.

 

EVERY RP will allow runs, have bad days, etc. And as has been quoted, it seems nobody is ever truly happy with their team's pen. But look how the Twins 3-5 options compare in this sample to other top teams proposed #3 BP option.

[Doomtints]

We should not judge how "good" anyone on the team is doing over the past couple of weeks considering the competition.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

You will be lucky to get two thirds of a year from Pineda. Perez? So, basically the same rotation?

 

I mean, I'd like for the Twins to sign Cole, Keuchel, and Ryu, then make the Nationals a godfather offer for Scherzer, but I'd put the over/under on number of those pitchers in a Twins uniform next year at 0.5, and still pound the under.  The fixes to this rotation are in all likelihood going to come in the same way Cleveland built their rotation--through consistent incremental improvement driven by development of minor league talent and the odd shrewd trade for undervalued assets.

[Mike Sixel]

I mean, I'd like for the Twins to sign Cole, Keuchel, and Ryu, then make the Nationals a godfather offer for Scherzer, but I'd put the over/under on number of those pitchers in a Twins uniform next year at 0.5, and still pound the under. The fixes to this rotation are in all likelihood going to come in the same way Cleveland built their rotation--through consistent incremental improvement driven by development of minor league talent and the odd shrewd trade for undervalued assets.

Ridiculous straw man argument. Seriously, no one has suggested this.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Ridiculous straw man argument. Seriously, no one has suggested this.

 

I didn't say anyone has suggested it.  I highlighted the fact that the Twins are unlikely to improve their rotation through expenditure (whether capital or prospect).  Even if they do, it will be only 1-2 spots, and not a wholesale rebuilding of the rotation.  That leaves only a couple of options;

1. Use largely the same rotation they had this year by picking up options/extending QO's/agreeing to new deals with their current starters
2. Put the burden on the members of the Rochester shuttle to man 2-3 spots in the rotation throughout the entire year
3. Dumpster dive and hope you can affect improvement in underperforming players

Of these 3 options, option 1 seems like the best balance between risk and reward--it has the lowest ceiling, but the highest floor.

 

All that being said, how would you propose fixing the rotation?

[Mike Sixel]

Keep one of Pineda or Odorrizi. Sign one of the five best free agents, they have plenty of money. Trade for someone, I couldn't list a specific name, but there will be a decent or good pitcher traded this off season.

 

I can't guarantee it is better than this year, but you can't not sign anyone and go with four rookies.

 

It also isn't realistic to expect them to sign three good free agents, as some have suggested. No team has ever done that.

 

This front office chose to have this problem, by not singing anyone or trading for anyone, and it isn't an easy one to fix.

Edited September 3, 2019 by Mike Sixel