The Rays got their man at the deadline. Arggggh!

[Otto von Ballpark]

So, Kirilloff for five years of a number three? If those numbers are correct, I do that every time given this roster. Every time. They have one starter under contract for next year. One.

Actually, by Fangraphs at least, Chisholm is ahead of Kirilloff. Other sources seem to still prefer Kirilloff, but no doubt he's had a tough season.

 

Also, Zac Gallen himself was only a 40 FV prospect preseason. I suppose there is still some question about whether he is for real going forward, or if he's a more marginal guy having a good run. In which case, he may ultimately not be any better than Thorpe or perhaps even Smelter, Dobnak, etc.

 

Do you swap Kirilloff at a low value point, for Gallen at a high value point? It would be tempting for sure.

[Vanimal46]

I am on record as liking the Pressly trade as he wasn't going to help us in 2018 and the FO had all off season to find someone with stuff that was at least close to what was lost.

 

They found a player in Marwin Gonzalaz to come close to replacing Escobar's production why couldn't they do that for the pen? If they would have then the Pressly trade wouldn't have looked so bad but by essentially not replacing that production then yes I agree that trade does look bad. It didn't have to look bad though.

There wasn't a reliever available in free agency last winter close to Pressly's caliber.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Every front office has misses... Add this to the list. Time will tell whether Anderson can sustain an MLB career.

 

There was a lot of teeth gnashing last year over losing Derek Rodriguez... This year was utterly forgettable for Rodriguez.

I mentioned this in another thread recently, but Rodriguez's 2018 was pretty unsustainable by the numbers. Probably even moreso than Nick Blackburn and Scott Diamond, who at least got a lot of grounders.

 

Reliever performance can be pretty volatile too, but at least Anderson has the peripherals to back it up (and then some). And the well-respected and competitive Rays ponying up to trade for Anderson in a pennant race is an encouraging sign for him too.

[alarp33]

 

There wasn't a reliever available in free agency last winter close to Pressly's caliber.

 

There were plenty available who were better than Pressly was as a Twin, which is what the applicable comparison would be. Since I'm guessing they wouldn't have traded him had they been able to unlock this dominate version of Pressly

[drivlikejehu]

Everyone is smart in hindsight. I'd love to see links to all the posts decrying the Twins' trade of Anderson, when it actually happened.

[Vanimal46]

Everyone is smart in hindsight. I'd love to see links to all the posts decrying the Twins' trade of Anderson, when it actually happened.

It was a blip on the radar. No one was mad or cared he was traded.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/31783-twins-trade-nick-anderson-to-marlins-for-brian-schales/?fromsearch=1

[Riverbrian]

We'll agree to disagree on a lot of this... It's simply impossible to keep every single player on the 40 man. Limited spots, you know? All of them would have to be dropped at some point for injury or lack of performance in the case of Chargois. Brace yourselves, there's a huge 40 man roster crunch coming this winter. Other players that may have a moment of greatness in the future will be let go.

The preciousness of the 40 man roster space that you mention is exactly my point and reasoning. I am braced for the 40 man decisions to come this winter and it’s a good problem to have. I’m not so sure we had this good problem to have in previous years.

 

I don’t want to focus on Chargois specifically when I’m really talking broad concept fundamentals. We can get lost in Chargois because he was hurt and his release can be justified.

[Vanimal46]

The preciousness of the 40 man roster space that you mention is exactly my point and reasoning. I am braced for the 40 man decisions to come this winter and it’s a good problem to have. I’m not so sure we had this good problem to have in previous years.

 

I don’t want to focus on Chargois specifically when I’m really talking broad concept fundamentals. We can get lost in Chargois because he was hurt and his release can be justified.

We can discuss the other players you wish were still on roster then.

 

Nick Burdi- this year he would have 10 IP as a Twin and placed on the 60 day IL. Are you still keeping him this winter over Duran, Alcala, or other RP options needing a 40 man roster spot?

 

Curtiss: Would another few MLB innings change his outcome? Would he still be on the 40 struggling with a 7.75 ERA in AAA?

 

How about the other players cut this year? Should they also be on the 40? Will there be a hindsight thread created for trading any of these players for nothing?

 

Mejia

Parker

Magill

Morin

Jay

Eades

Adams

Granite

[USAFChief]

There were plenty available who were better than Pressly was as a Twin, which is what the applicable comparison would be. Since I'm guessing they wouldn't have traded him had they been able to unlock this dominate version of Pressly

He was really good the last year with the Twins, and he always had really really good stuff.

 

And it's "dominant," by the way.

[alarp33]

 

He was really good the last year with the Twins, and he always had really really good stuff.

And it's "dominant," by the way.

 

He had a 3.40 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, and 127 ERA+

 

He was basically last years Ryne Harper. 

 

Yes, he did have good stuff, but Twins fans seem to forget he was never actually that great of pitcher here

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Great posts by everyone, though some make more sense to me than others. It is very difficult to predict success . There are many variables. The organization that is successful in predicting success, in teaching the tools necessary for success, in fostering a will to win, and in maintaining a future, while winning consistently, will win more games...but even then will lose 4 out of every 10 games. It is a heavy yoke we fans of specific baseball teams have chosen to wear. 

[Dman]

 

There were plenty available who were better than Pressly was as a Twin, which is what the applicable comparison would be. Since I'm guessing they wouldn't have traded him had they been able to unlock this dominate version of Pressly

 

Yeah Pressly always threw hard and had decent stuff but the results never quite matched up with the Twins.  I mean his numbers while with the Twins are not that different than Trevor Mays are now.  Granted in 2018 he was arguably having his best year as a reliever for the Twins but was he going to keep that up or regress? 

 

We always complain the Twins never sell high.  He only had one more year of team control left they had time to come up with a replacement for this year if they felt it was necessary, but they didn't.  They obviously felt they had enough internal options to fill the bullpen this year but that didn't work very well.

 

Houston really helped him up his game so would he be that pitcher for us if we had kept him?  Hard to say but I don't think so.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He had a 3.40 ERA, 1.364 WHIP, and 127 ERA+

 

He was basically last years Ryne Harper. 

 

Yes, he did have good stuff, but Twins fans seem to forget he was never actually that great of pitcher here

Ryne Harper is not really an appropriate comparison. Pressly last year not only had solid results, but also one of the highest Twins K% marks in recent memory as evidence of his improving stuff. Yes, he wasn't an all-star yet, but was pretty much our best bet at the time for reaching that level of performance/trust in the near future.

[alarp33]

 

Ryne Harper is not really an appropriate comparison. Pressly last year not only had solid results, but also one of the highest Twins K% marks in recent memory as evidence of his improving stuff. Yes, he wasn't an all-star yet, but was pretty much our best bet at the time for reaching that level of performance/trust in the near future.

 

I'm aware the "stuff" is much different between Harper and Pressly, I'm using them as an example strictly based on results/ raw numbers that are pretty similar/ slightly favor Harper 

 

ERA: Harper 3.45  Pressly 3.40

Whip Harper 1.106  Pressly 1.364

ERA+ Harper 133  Pressly 127

 

Many of us saw the strikeout numbers, and thought Pressly COULD be dominant. But people are greatly mis-remembering what the actual results showed when he was here. 

[alarp33]

 

Ryne Harper is not really an appropriate comparison. Pressly last year not only had solid results, but also one of the highest Twins K% marks in recent memory as evidence of his improving stuff. Yes, he wasn't an all-star yet, but was pretty much our best bet at the time for reaching that level of performance/trust in the near future.

 

I could also use Trevor May like Dman mentioned above. 

 

Ryan Pressly last season with Twins vs Trevor May 2019

 

ERA: Pressly 3.40  May 3.50

Whip: Pressly 1.364  May 1.230

ERA+: Pressly 127   May 132

[alarp33]

 

Yeah Pressly always threw hard and had decent stuff but the results never quite matched up with the Twins.  I mean his numbers while with the Twins are not that different than Trevor Mays are now.  Granted in 2018 he was arguably having his best year as a reliever for the Twins but was he going to keep that up or regress? 

 

We always complain the Twins never sell high.  He only had one more year of team control left they had time to come up with a replacement for this year if they felt it was necessary, but they didn't.  They obviously felt they had enough internal options to fill the bullpen this year but that didn't work very well.

 

Houston really helped him up his game so would he be that pitcher for us if we had kept him?  Hard to say but I don't think so.

 

There are plenty of legitimate questions around Pressly I would ask of the Front Office like;  Why was this potential untapped here and seemingly flourished immediately upon leaving? 

 

Why was he traded would not be one of them. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Everyone is smart in hindsight. I'd love to see links to all the posts decrying the Twins' trade of Anderson, when it actually happened.

Well, there were quite a few posters who wanted to see Anderson get an audition last year instead of Belisle. And probably more who, had they known we were changing pitching coaches and Anderson was likely to be claimed in Rule 5 (hence the trade), would have liked to see Anderson get some kind of opportunity in 2019 too, perhaps at the expense of Granite, De Jong, Curtiss, or eventually Torreyes on the 40-man roster.

 

Deprived of that knowledge and opportunity, obviously Anderson being left of the 40-man roster and subsequently traded was a pretty minor move at the time (most here didn't comment on it at all).

 

Anderson was close enough to a MLB opportunity, and a likely enough Rule 5 pick, that I think it's fair to question it now without too much hindsight. A guy like Dereck Rodriguez was a much bigger hindsight case.

[Vanimal46]

There are plenty of legitimate questions around Pressly I would ask of the Front Office like; Why was this potential untapped here and seemingly flourished immediately upon leaving?

 

Why was he traded would not be one of them.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/15/magic-dust-spin-rates-buy-in-how-astros-make-good-pitchers-even-better/?noredirect=on

 

Houston has built up a ton of credibility with their analytics team. It's natural to buy in to a team when they can say we made a HOF pitcher like Verlander even better.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I could also use Trevor May like Dman mentioned above. 

 

Ryan Pressly last season with Twins vs Trevor May 2019

 

ERA: Pressly 3.40  May 3.50

Whip: Pressly 1.364  May 1.230

ERA+: Pressly 127   May 132

May has a 27.1 K% versus Pressly's 33.2% last year.

 

But sure, if the Twins traded Trevor May at the deadline this year for a couple of 40 FV lower minors prospects, and replaced him this offseason with Blake Parker, it would probably be pretty questionable too.

[alarp33]

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2018/10/15/magic-dust-spin-rates-buy-in-how-astros-make-good-pitchers-even-better/?noredirect=on

Houston has built up a ton of credibility with their analytics team. It's natural to buy in to a team when they can say we made a HOF pitcher like Verlander even better.

 

Yeah, I've read that article. Some of that might be on Pressly, but the FO should be able to explain to these guys why this data is valuable, etc. Hopefully the Twins are working on this. 

[wsnydes]

For me, I didn't mind the Pressly trade because of the sell high factor. The only argument that I would argue against the trade was that it weakened an already weak pen. While that's true, I would then trust the FO to go out and reinforce the weakness that they further weakened. They didn't do that. That's where I have the problem.

[alarp33]

 

May has a 27.1 K% versus Pressly's 33.2% last year.

 

But sure, if the Twins traded Trevor May at the deadline this year for a couple of 40 FV lower minors prospects, and replaced him this offseason with Blake Parker, it would probably be pretty questionable too.

 

For the 10th time. No one is absolving the Twins for lack of bullpen additions this offseason, not remotely what my point is here. 

 

The K% is great, his ERA was 3.70 as a Twin and he had a year of service time left. At some point a reliever with a 3.70 ERA isn't especially valuable. 

 

I jumped into this because someone said no one on the FA market this offseason was even close to as good as Pressly, which is just patently false based on Pressly's career as a Twin which is relevant. 

[Vanimal46]

Yeah, I've read that article. Some of that might be on Pressly, but the FO should be able to explain to these guys why this data is valuable, etc. Hopefully the Twins are working on this.

I'm sure they are... Rome wasn't built in a day. If there's still a gap explaining why the data they're presenting is valuable they're not the right people for the job.

[Riverbrian]

 

We can discuss the other players you wish were still on roster then.

Nick Burdi- this year he would have 10 IP as a Twin and placed on the 60 day IL. Are you still keeping him this winter over Duran, Alcala, or other RP options needing a 40 man roster spot?

Curtiss: Would another few MLB innings change his outcome? Would he still be on the 40 struggling with a 7.75 ERA in AAA?

How about the other players cut this year? Should they also be on the 40? Will there be a hindsight thread created for trading any of these players for nothing?

Mejia
Parker
Magill
Morin
Jay
Eades
Adams
Granite

 

With all due respect Van.

 

I don't think I will. 

 

You are not understanding me and you are working way too hard to take me away from my point. 

 

You brought up Burdi, Chargois and Curtiss... I did not but yeah I'd rather the club look at Anderson with some helium than Belisle with nowhere to go but down in a lost season.   

 

Go Back and read my original first 4 sentences. That's my point. 

 

If anyone wonders why I'm insistent about giving playing time to as many players as possible.

 

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. 

 

If anyone wonders why I don't have complete faith in the scouts, the front offices or Keith Law to be right all the time.

 

Nick Anderson is one of many exhibits. 

 

When I talk about one of many exhibits... I'm talking about Anderson (the subject of this thread). I'm talking about Kirby Yates, Brad Hand, Justin Turner, Luke Voit, Mitch Tauchman, Max Muncy off the top of my head. I'm talking about the scouts and data being wrong frequently because all clubs miss on guys like this because of the 40 man pressure. I'm not relying on the scouts, the front office or Keith Law to pre-determine fate. I'd like them to determine their own fate with the ball in hand.   

 

I'm talking about not wasting roster space on average to below average, Belisle and Breslow types who have no chance of increasing in value and running up players like Nick Anderson instead who have a chance of increasing in value. 

 

The bullpen isn't strong enough to give players away like Anderson.  

[Mike Sixel]

No one will be right all the time, that's an awful strawman to bring up.

 

You larger point that last year they should have run the team differently is 100% true.

 

People can keep typing every team makes mistakes..... When do we see the pitching successes that are sustainable? Because they literally cut half their bullpen in June and July. That's not sustainable. Neither is having one starter under contract for next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Many of us saw the strikeout numbers, and thought Pressly COULD be dominant. But people are greatly mis-remembering what the actual results showed when he was here. 

If someone is claiming the Twins traded Pressly while he was an all-star, by all means correct them.

 

But generally, I'm reading this discussion as the Twins trading their best reliever at the 2018 deadline, with the best chance of being their best reliever or even a breakout reliever in 2019 too. All of that was true at the time. (Rogers wasn't even all that great for the Twins through July 2018.)

 

There was seemingly a bet there that Pressly wouldn't keep up his 2018 performance, or a bunch of other guys would soon emerge, or that the 2019 Twins weren't going to be all that close to contending, or that Alcala was ready to rocket to MLB. All of those were fairly questionable bets, ergo it's a pretty questionable trade even without the hindsight of his Astros performance.

[alarp33]

 

If someone is claiming the Twins traded Pressly while he was an all-star, by all means correct them.

 

But generally, I'm reading this discussion as the Twins trading their best reliever at the 2018 deadline, with the best chance of being their best reliever or even a breakout reliever in 2019 too. All of that was true at the time. (Rogers wasn't even all that great for the Twins through July 2018.)

 

There was seemingly a bet there that Pressly wouldn't keep up his 2018 performance, or a bunch of other guys would soon emerge, or that the 2019 Twins weren't going to be all that close to contending, or that Alcala was ready to rocket to MLB. All of those were fairly questionable bets, ergo it's a pretty questionable trade even without the hindsight of his Astros performance.

 

The post I replied to literally said there wasn't a reliever available this past off-season even in Presslys league. 

 

Again, I commented because that is nowhere near true when discussing Pressly as a TWIN, not his 2 months as an Astro. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I jumped into this because someone said no one on the FA market this offseason was even close to as good as Pressly, which is just patently false based on Pressly's career as a Twin which is relevant. 

In terms of cost/commitment/age/stuff/potential, I think it may not be far off. I'm not sure what FA RP contract I would have preferred to Pressly last winter.

 

Especially when you consider the context, that the Twins needed more than just one such reliever in FA -- just replacing Pressly with another Pressly would probably be inadequate, as I think we probably needed to add one or more of that caliber of reliever even before trading Pressly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Again, I commented because that is nowhere near true when discussing Pressly as a TWIN, not his 2 months as an Astro. 

See my most recently reply above -- what offseason FA RP contract would you have preferred over Pressly and his arb control circa July 27, 2018?

[alarp33]

 

See my most recently reply above -- what offseason FA RP contract would you have preferred over Pressly and his arb control circa July 27, 2018?

 

I can't say this anymore clearly. Again, that is not what I responding to. This is the exact comment I responded to. It mentions nowhere age, cost, years, etc. 

 

"There wasn't a reliever available in free agency last winter close to Pressly's caliber."