Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/19): Twins Unable to Mount Comeback, Drop Series Opener 6-4

[prouster]

Interesting development:

• Jake Cave, ML batting stats after this game: .261 / .358 / .374
• Byron Buxton, 2019 to date: .262 / .314 / .513
• Eddie Rosario: .282 / .307 / .519
• Max Kepler: .255 / .336 / .529

Defensively there's no comparison between Cave and Buxton or Kepler. However, if Cave keeps increasing the gap in his on base numbers and closing in SLG. there is a case for platooning him with Buxton and Rosario, with Buxton getting the call in late innings of tight games.

Cave is a terrible defender. And look at that slugging percentage you cited.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Are Rocco and his coaching staff sleeping in the dugout?
 

This is the 2nd play that should have been challenged over the last few days. There have been more egregious plays that they challenged, but choose to not challenge these most recent ones?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Thanks for the photo. In my opinion. Sano would have been safe if not blocked. That I’m convinced of.

If he can’t apply a tag in time. He certainly can’t move his foot in time to block the plate.

The only way he is able to block the plate is if it was pre-blocked prior to the ball arriving and that is against the rules.

The only question should be. Did he need to block the plate in order to catch the ball? I believe the answer to that is no. He had an unnecessary wide stance, which blocked the plate.

It was a great play by the Sox but the Posey rule is in the books and this appears to be the definition of what you can’t do.

In the end. Brand new game today.

 

The throw was very low to the ground. Which implies the catcher would need to widen his stance to field it, as compared to receiving a higher throw. And his stance was widened only as he was moving his whole body in the direction of the throw. All of that seems allowable by the rule. Catchers aren't required to wait for the throw in a seated or kneeling position.

 

Keep in mind, the rule was put in place to protect catchers from collisions. After some initial confusion, I think they've tightened up enforcement over the past few years with that purpose in mind, although such things still aren't 100% consistent or predictable. Which is why it still may have been worth a challenge (although that's precisely what I hate about the challenge system).

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The throw was very low to the ground. Which implies the catcher would need to widen his stance to field it, as compared to receiving a higher throw. And his stance was widened only as he was moving his whole body in the direction of the throw. All of that seems allowable by the rule. Catchers aren't required to wait for the throw in a seated or kneeling position.

 

Keep in mind, the rule was put in place to protect catchers from collisions. After some initial confusion, I think they've tightened up enforcement over the past few years with that purpose in mind, although such things still aren't 100% consistent or predictable. Which is why it still may have been worth a challenge (although that's precisely what I hate about the challenge system).

Well summarized. This was not a gimme play that would automatically have been overturned. I don't know the percentages but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if New York let the call stand almost immediately.

 

Would I have challenged? Sure, but I don't think it's some massive oversight where everyone on the Twins suddenly forgot the rules. What's more likely than the team forgetting the rules is that they have seen far more of these plays and know a challenge is likely wasted on a play of this kind.

[bighat]

 

At what point does last year become the outlier for Gibson? He had a career low BABIP and career high LOB%. 

 

Theres 28 AL pitchers with enough innings pitched to qualify, he's 20th in ERA this season 

 

Yeah I agree with you. Last year appears to be an albatross, a career year for Gibson that erased a lot of skepticism. Perez experienced a blip this year at the beginning of the season as well, but he's also returned to average form.

 

The Twins have certainly benefited from the spikes in productivity - not saying that Gibson's career year last season and Perez' first half were bad things. But, this team is going to have to take its lumps with these guys on the hill, and just basically cross their fingers and hope things go well.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Are Rocco and his coaching staff sleeping in the dugout?
 

This is the 2nd play that should have been challenged over the last few days. There have been more egregious plays that they challenged, but choose to not challenge these most recent ones?

No tech is allowed in the dugout so Rocco isn't the person who actually sees the play. He has the final say on whether the challenge is deployed or not but he's working with limited information and a very short timeline to make a decision.

 

And I suspect whoever mans the Twins film booth has a lot more first-hand knowledge of the rules and likelihood of a play being overturned than anyone here.

 

That doesn't mean they're automatically right but as a person who has only seen a few of these plays since the rules change, despite watching a lot of baseball, I'm not in the position to say they were wrong with such finality.

[Mike Sixel]

 

At what point does last year become the outlier for Gibson? He had a career low BABIP and career high LOB%. 

 

Theres 28 AL pitchers with enough innings pitched to qualify, he's 20th in ERA this season 

 

Looking only at qualifiers is silly. A LOT MORE than 28 pitchers pitch in the AL. If you expand that to a number where you have 100+ starters in the AL, he's right in the middle of all pitchers. Unless you think only comparing him to the 28 best players is a fair way to judge him compared to the 131 pitchers that have started an AL game.....

[alarp33]

 

Looking only at qualifiers is silly. A LOT MORE than 28 pitchers pitch in the AL. If you expand that to a number where you have 100+ starters in the AL, he's right in the middle of all pitchers. Unless you think only comparing him to the 28 best players is a fair way to judge him compared to the 131 pitchers that have started an AL game.....

 

I mean I was throwing out a pretty simple comparison, not really trying to argue the merits of qualifying innings. I don't know how relevant comparing him to guys who have started 1 game is either. Lower it to 70 innings? 36th of 56.  He hasn't been very good, feel free to pick away at the loose numbers I used to show the Twins should expect more from him

[Brock Beauchamp]

This site is really good at showing the disparity of last night's game.

 

Look at the hard hit numbers on the right for each pitcher and then sort by exit velocity down below for hitters. Gibson actually pitched a good game and got burned by some bad luck and sequencing. 

 

On the other hand, the Twins were mashing the ball and had very little to show for it.

 

That's baseball sometimes, as infuriating as it may be. While I'm pretty bent out of shape over the loss because the Twins need to win these games, I'm actually encouraged by Kyle's performance and command.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=567024

[alarp33]

 

This site is really good at showing the disparity of last night's game.

 

Look at the hard hit numbers on the right for each pitcher and then sort by exit velocity down below for hitters. Gibson actually pitched a good game and got burned by some bad luck and sequencing. 

 

On the other hand, the Twins were mashing the ball and had very little to show for it.

 

That's baseball sometimes, as infuriating as it may be. While I'm pretty bent out of shape over the loss because the Twins need to win these games, I'm actually encouraged by Kyle's performance and command.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=567024

 

I am as in to the underlying stats and metrics as anyone, there is tons of value in that stuff. 

 

But it's August of a pennant race and Gibson is not getting the job done, repeatedly. I don't care that his underlying performance was promising, I care that his team got him a 2 run lead and he couldn't protect it.. which has become a common occurrence from him

[Dantes929]

 

Looking only at qualifiers is silly. A LOT MORE than 28 pitchers pitch in the AL. If you expand that to a number where you have 100+ starters in the AL, he's right in the middle of all pitchers. Unless you think only comparing him to the 28 best players is a fair way to judge him compared to the 131 pitchers that have started an AL game.....

I was already thinking along the same lines.   My math says every team pretty much goes with a 5 man rotation.   15 teams times 5 pitchers means 75 starting rotation spots.   His ERA is slightly better than league average but worse than the Twins ERA which is still somehow in the American League top 5.    Given how they have been for the last month I am surprised that the Twins are still 5th best in the AL in run prevention.   Better than the Yankees.   Anyway, we are defending Gibson but just against unfairness.     I had much higher expectations for him than what we have seen so far this year.

[Dantes929]

Along those lines, I thought Smalley was spot on in a lot of his commentary last night.   He said he wouldn't give Abreu anything good to hit with 1st base open and Gibson grooved the first pitch.    The next guy got on with an error by Arraiz but still.   That pitch pretty much cost the game and it was one Smalley had just cautioned against.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was already thinking along the same lines. My math says every team pretty much goes with a 5 man rotation. 15 teams times 5 pitchers means 75 starting rotation spots. His ERA is slightly better than league average but worse than the Twins ERA which is still somehow in the American League top 5. Given how they have been for the last month I am surprised that the Twins are still 5th best in the AL in run prevention. Better than the Yankees. Anyway, we are defending Gibson but just against unfairness. I had much higher expectations for him than what we have seen so far this year.

Yep. Gibson can be a disappointment while still being a pretty good pitcher. The Twins need more of a #2 performance from him while they’re getting a #3 performance this season. Not a massive drop off but enough to cost a couple of wins over a season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Along those lines, I thought Smalley was spot on in a lot of his commentary last night. He said he wouldn't give Abreu anything good to hit with 1st base open and Gibson grooved the first pitch. The next guy got on with an error by Arraiz but still. That pitch pretty much cost the game and it was one Smalley had just cautioned against.

Yep, Smalley’s timing on that one was impeccable.

[alarp33]

 

Yep. Gibson can be a disappointment while still being a pretty good pitcher. The Twins need more of a #2 performance from him while they’re getting a #3 performance this season. Not a massive drop off but enough to cost a couple of wins over a season.

 

June 19 - August 19 Gibson has a 5.23 ERA.  "still a pretty good pitcher".  Ok

[Brock Beauchamp]

June 19 - August 19 Gibson has a 5.23 ERA. "still a pretty good pitcher". Ok

Mediocre pitchers have bad stretches. No league average pitcher goes out and throws 6 IP, 3 ER in every start. That’s not how it works.

[alarp33]

 

Mediocre pitchers have bad stretches. No league average pitcher goes out and throws 6 IP, 3 ER in every start. That’s not how it works.

 

You said he was pretty good, not mediocre. That's not a bad stretch, thats half his season. 

[alarp33]

Gibson's ERA since June 16th is higher than Martin Perez's. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

You said he was pretty good, not mediocre. That's not a bad stretch, thats half his season.

Are we now at the point of parsing intent behind phrases like “pretty good”, “mediocre”, and “decent”?

 

Because ugh.

 

Gibson still has an ERA+ of 107, btw. If you want to argue whether that’s decent, pretty good, or mediocre, have at it because I don’t care enough to participate in that kind of pedantry.

[Tyler Roepke]

I can't fathom what Gibson was trying to accomplish with the 92 mph meatball he threw Abreu. The only thing that would even remotely make sense is if he was trying to go inside and left it over the plate. You can throw that pitch to Abreu 10 times and he'll crank it out of the park 9 times. Home run derby type of pitch.

[Bandit34]

The bottom line is if we can not go out and get somebody better than Kyle Gibson this offseason that's pretty sad of our front office. I believe we will find someone better though and I look forward to the day when Gibson signs with another team. His career in light of being such a high draft pick, has been very disappointing in all aspects. It's unfortunate but some guys just never reach their potential, some don't even come close. I think Gibson had what it takes to be a great pitcher, but I don't think he will ever be one. 

[SwainZag]

I'm surprised this whole recap is basically about Gibson not performing.  The Twins had 15 hits, 4 for extra bases and only could push 4 runs across the plate.  They left 2 runners on the 2nd, 4th, 6th, and the 9th.  Yes, Gibson made the mistake on the pitch to Abreu, but the offense set themselves up time and time again and couldn't find the clutch hits.

[Dantes929]

 

I'm surprised this whole recap is basically about Gibson not performing.  The Twins had 15 hits, 4 for extra bases and only could push 4 runs across the plate.  They left 2 runners on the 2nd, 4th, 6th, and the 9th.  Yes, Gibson made the mistake on the pitch to Abreu, but the offense set themselves up time and time again and couldn't find the clutch hits.

I think its just one of those games where the blame can be spread out pretty evenly.   Offense, starter, relief, defense, base running.     I had a bad feeling the game might have turned in the first inning when Rosario hit the rocket that the 2nd baseman made a great play on.  Some days it might have still been enough to beat some teams but playing well enough to beat most teams is the standard they need to   play up to.   I'm just not so sure about the clutch hitting part.   I get what you are saying but are you expecting them to have more than 15 hits and more than 4 extra base hits or do you think it is in their control when they get those hits.?   

[AlwaysinModeration]

I can't fathom what Gibson was trying to accomplish with the 92 mph meatball he threw Abreu. The only thing that would even remotely make sense is if he was trying to go inside and left it over the plate. You can throw that pitch to Abreu 10 times and he'll crank it out of the park 9 times. Home run derby type of pitch.

Get ahead in the count, I’m pretty sure. The announcers were also touting how he had thrown first pitch strikes for a majority of the batters of the game.

[Riverbrian]

The throw was very low to the ground. Which implies the catcher would need to widen his stance to field it, as compared to receiving a higher throw. And his stance was widened only as he was moving his whole body in the direction of the throw. All of that seems allowable by the rule. Catchers aren't required to wait for the throw in a seated or kneeling position.

 

Keep in mind, the rule was put in place to protect catchers from collisions. After some initial confusion, I think they've tightened up enforcement over the past few years with that purpose in mind, although such things still aren't 100% consistent or predictable. Which is why it still may have been worth a challenge (although that's precisely what I hate about the challenge system).

I can buy what you are selling

[bighat]

 

Well summarized. This was not a gimme play that would automatically have been overturned. I don't know the percentages but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if New York let the call stand almost immediately.

 

Would I have challenged? Sure, but I don't think it's some massive oversight where everyone on the Twins suddenly forgot the rules. What's more likely than the team forgetting the rules is that they have seen far more of these plays and know a challenge is likely wasted on a play of this kind.

 

Bingo. Since that rule's been in place, I've only seen the call overturned once. And it was like the lead story on ESPN that night. It's, frankly, a rule that umps and the league doesn't want to enforce (much like the "neighborhood" play). There's no way that gets overturned, IMO.

 

The only way it'll be overturned in the future is if it's a bang-bang play where the runner was almost safe. On a play like that, where Sano was out by a good distance, it wouldn't be overturned no matter if he was blocking the plate or not.

[DiscGolfer]

Last night felt like the closest thing to a quality start from a Twins starter in a while.  1 bad inning and 1 bad pitch cost the game.  He should've pitched around Abreu in that situation.  But if a few more balls drop or or something squeaks through then the story of the game is much different.

 

On the Sano play if all of us are debating that play this much and can't come up with convincing evidence that it should've been reversed there is no way the umps would have overturned it during the game.  It was a tough break play that Chicago pulled off defensively.   Overall Chicago made enough good plays on defense to win the game.

 

Tough loss in a very winnable game, go get 'em tonight (if the rain holds off)

[SwainZag]

 

I think its just one of those games where the blame can be spread out pretty evenly.   Offense, starter, relief, defense, base running.     I had a bad feeling the game might have turned in the first inning when Rosario hit the rocket that the 2nd baseman made a great play on.  Some days it might have still been enough to beat some teams but playing well enough to beat most teams is the standard they need to   play up to.   I'm just not so sure about the clutch hitting part.   I get what you are saying but are you expecting them to have more than 15 hits and more than 4 extra base hits or do you think it is in their control when they get those hits.?   

 

I'm saying they had several chances to add runs and failed, many times twice in one inning.  Not being able to get a runner home from 2nd with less than two outs with this offense is something that's going to bite them in the rear end and it did.

[USAFChief]

If you ask me, the throw Rosario made was at least as bad, and IMO worse, than the pitch Gibson threw.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If you ask me, the throw Rosario made was at least as bad, and IMO worse, than the pitch Gibson threw.

I'd really prefer not to pick a "winner" between those two plays.