Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/8): Gibson Struggles, Late-Inning Rallies Fall Short

[Tom Froemming]

 

Agree with the boring move of the 13th pitcher for now. Best stretch of offense was back in the late spring when Cruz was out. We have multiple options at DH. Won't happen now, but I look for Graterol soon if he keeps throwing like this. Good on Falvey for trying anyone and everyone. Balazovic can come up right behind him as far as I'm concerned. We have starting pitching problems and we need to solve that one quick. 

It is starting to feel like we're going to see Graterol in some role on this team before the end of the year. He needs to be added to the 40-man at the end of the year anyway. Cody recently wrote about him here, for anybody who may have missed it.

 

I think the jump from High-A to the upper levels of the minors is huge, especially for a pitcher, considering how friendly an environment the Florida State League is. Balazovic is having an excellent year, but I don't think he's a realistic option.

 

If you're looking for new arms to call upon who we haven't seen up with the Twins yet, maybe Edwar Colina could be that guy? Among the guys we have seen, maybe it's time to give Sean Poppen more of a look, as opposed to just using him for bullpen length in the event of an emergency. But that's just my thoughts, I dunno.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

There were a large group of posters who ripped the front office a new one for burning Jorge's option in 2014, and I think I was probably one of them.

To add to my previous post:

 

The front office did make a roster error with Polanco, but it was back in 2010. They gave him too many active days in rookie league ball so he was Rule 5 eligible a year sooner than he should have been. Thus, he was already taking a 40-man roster spot and burning an option year in 2014, before we even called him up.

[SwainZag]

 

Polanco was already required to be on the 40-man roster in 2014 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, which is why he got called up when we needed an infielder for a few days. He was already burning an option regardless of whether we called him up that year or not.

 

It would make far less sense to add Kirilloff to the 40-man roster now, unnecessarily, even before considering whether he might burn an option.

 

That would have been for 2015 right?  Didn't they waste a year by calling him up in 2014, one they could have saved or am I off on that?  If not that makes sense, but yeah completely on Kirilloff.  If he was ripping the cover off the ball it would be a different story.

 

Edit: You answered my question in above post about service time.  

Edited August 9, 2019 by SwainZag

[gunnarthor]

 

1.73 ERA in 26 innings vs CWS and Baltimore, if the Twins face one of those teams in the playoffs Gibson will be ready to go. 

 

4.88 ERA vs everyone else. 

I really hate these type of comparisons. If you're going to discount his best 26 innings, shouldn't you also discount his worst innings? 

[alarp33]

 

I really hate these type of comparisons. If you're going to discount his best 26 innings, shouldn't you also discount his worst innings? 

 

Those were not his 26 best innings

 

And the theme many have picked up on with Gibson this year is when the team needs a big start from him he craps the bed. See both starts vs Cleveland since All Star break

Edited August 9, 2019 by alarp33

[gunnarthor]

 

Vs Playoff teams (or playoff hopefuls); NYM, NYY, TBR, BOS, OAK, CLE; 

 

10 starts, 53 innings, 39 runs, 31 earned runs.  5.07 ERA with a whopping 8 unearned runs. 4 of the 10 games didn't get out of the 5th inning. 

Is that good? Did you compare other starters to those same teams to show where Gibby stands?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I look at it as him taking Cave's 40-man spot after the season.

 

I am willing to take the risk of burning an option for the potential reward Kirilloff could provide. If he isn't going to be ready to contribute to the Twins prior to next September, they why didn't the Twins shop him more aggressively during the trade deadline?

 

Maybe this is why I don't have a job in the Twins front office, but I would be fairly aggressive moving Kirilloff up and taking the risks involved.

Again, the risk is NOT just burning an option.

 

If you think that little of Cave, you can give his 40-man spot to Jax, or Blankenhorn, or some other prospect who needs it this offseason. By unnecessarily giving it to Kirilloff, you're risking losing one of those guys, not just Cave. (Or you're risking not having room to take a flier on the next Kirby Yates, etc.)

 

I'm not saying you have to wait until September 2020 to promote Kirilloff -- I could see him coming into camp next spring fully healthy and in 2018 hitting form, and getting promoted after a few weeks (the Bryant rule) or in June after the super-2 date (like Buxton, etc.). But no sense trying to force it in August 2019, and risk losing other prospects (to say nothing of messing up Kirilloff's own development) when he is pretty clearly not ready at the moment.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Really enjoyed the video. A 13th pitcher makes the most practical sense, but I love the idea of a Kirilloff call-up.

 

I think the Twins could reasonably add him to the 25 man roster to avoid burning an option, and make Cave the odd man out. I also think the way Rocco juggles his lineup and provides frequent rest would mean if Kirilloff was on the opening day roster next season he would get frequent at bats.

 

The other reason I would love a Kirilloff call-up would be the energy/excitement he would bring to the club house, especially if he has an immediate impact on the field. The Twins have looked a little lifeless as of late. Call up a big time prospect and inject a little life into everyone!

 

For all the criticism the FO got during the trade deadline, this is an aggressive roster move they could make that could have significant positive impact, with virtually no downside.

Others have made good points on the options, which is why in the video I said the way that could make the most sense is if they could find away to carry Alex on the roster through the rest of August. Then rosters expand and you don't have to send him down/burn an option.

 

That seems to me like it'd be tough to pull off, but it's possible. It probably wouldn't be the best thing for Kirilloff's development, but I'm pretty comfortable with who he is, despite some largely uninspiring results this season. Basically, I don't think you would be hindering his development much by having him miss the final few weeks of the minor league season.

 

One last thing I want to add in regard to either a potential Graterol or Kirilloff move is at some point you have to do something. I can get behind the idea of building from within and trusting internal options. That's actually a lot of fun if you follow the minor league system. But if you're not going to be active in free agency, and you're not going to be active on the trade market, you have to do something somewhere.

 

At a certain point it does make some sense to push a prospect or two sooner than maybe you had originally intended to. Could end up being a disaster, but every once in a while you fall into a Luis Arraez situation. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Agree with the boring move of the 13th pitcher for now. Best stretch of offense was back in the late spring when Cruz was out. We have multiple options at DH. Won't happen now, but I look for Graterol soon if he keeps throwing like this. Good on Falvey for trying anyone and everyone. Balazovic can come up right behind him as far as I'm concerned. We have starting pitching problems and we need to solve that one quick. 

 

 

If you're looking for new arms to call upon who we haven't seen up with the Twins yet, maybe Edwar Colina could be that guy? Among the guys we have seen, maybe it's time to give Sean Poppen more of a look, as opposed to just using him for bullpen length in the event of an emergency. But that's just my thoughts, I dunno.

 

Duran would be the next most obvious candidate, after Graterol. Both of them have to be added to the 40-man after the season anyway. Alcala is in the same boat, but he's been much, much shakier in performance this season.

 

Colina and Balazovic don't have to be added until after 2020. Obviously if we really think they're ready, we can and should add them sooner. But if we're hoping to get lucky, no sense in adding them quite yet.

[JW24]

 

Again, the risk is NOT just burning an option.

 

If you think that little of Cave, you can give his 40-man spot to Jax, or Blankenhorn, or some other prospect who needs it this offseason. By unnecessarily giving it to Kirilloff, you're risking losing one of those guys, not just Cave. (Or you're risking not having room to take a flier on the next Kirby Yates, etc.)

 

I'm not saying you have to wait until September 2020 to promote Kirilloff -- I could see him coming into camp next spring fully healthy and in 2018 hitting form, and getting promoted after a few weeks (the Bryant rule) or in June after the super-2 date (like Buxton, etc.). But no sense trying to force it in August 2019, and risk losing other prospects (to say nothing of messing up Kirilloff's own development) when he is pretty clearly not ready at the moment.

I agree with everything you have said here, and the fact Kirilloff is not hitting well enough to merit a promotion is very valid.

 

For all the reasons you have listed, I do not think the Twins call him up. I would just rather see Kirilloff in the outfield the rest of this season than Cave as I think Kirilloff gives the Twins a better chance immediately to win the division. Personal preference/opinion.

[Doomtints]

I would be very happy if they had won the past three games, but I'm not surprised they lost them.

 

They'll try again tomorrow.

[ashbury]

For all the criticism the FO got during the trade deadline, this is an aggressive roster move they could make that could have significant positive impact, with virtually no downside.

This would be a desperation move, more than just an aggressive one.

[the_brute_squad]

 

This is the version of Gibby we have had of him most of this year, unlike last 1.25 years.  Has to nibble.  Not an extension candidate at 33 next year.

 

I know this is blasphemy but anyone else not understanding Rocco's obsession with protecting the bullpen?  Seems like lately he's leaving pitchers out way too long.  You have to hope your bullpen can help. I know I know bullpen not great, but this is the team we have or chose to have.

 

A little tired of the come from behind dramatics.  Don't mind a close game, just prefer not to be behind a ton and rely on the big bomb to bring us back.

 

let's hope we get it back.  Cleveland now can hit.

I agree with the no extension for Gibby. In my opinion this is a tryout and he's failing in the big games. Too bad big Mike Pineda is on the shelf because I think he'd be the best option right now.

Baldi is showing his trust in the pen as he's had the starters out to hang 3 games in a row. It seems like he's more willing to do that since Odo had his meltdown about getting taken out too early a few weeks ago.

It's obvious this staff doesn't match up against many of the better teams. If we don't get help from the minors - outside of Smeltzer - I don't see how the squad makes it anywhere past the first round of playoffs.

[JW24]

 

This would be a desperation move, more than just an aggressive one.

I think that depends on how well Kirilloff plays if he were to get called up.

[alarp33]

 

Is that good? Did you compare other starters to those same teams to show where Gibby stands?

 

No, Gibson has not been good vs good teams. Did you really think 39 runs in 53 innings may have been good?

 

Berrios vs playoff hopefuls; 

 

10 starts, 62.2 innings, 24 earned runs. 3.45 ERA  

 

Odorrizzi vs playoff hopefuls; 

 

13 starts, 65.1 innings, 32 earned runs, 4.41 ERA

 

Pineda vs playoff hopefuls; 

 

9 starts, 47.2 innings, 22 earned runs, 4.15 ERA

 

 

Edited August 9, 2019 by alarp33

[ashbury]

I think that depends on how well Kirilloff plays if he were to get called up.

No, the move itself smacks of desperation. You judge a decision at the time, not after the results come in. Hoping that Kirilloff turns around a month of tepid numbers at AA into good major league numbers would mean our FO is much like a batter who is pressing. Anything can happen, but it doesn't make it a solid move.

[JW24]

 

No, the move itself smacks of desperation. Hoping that Kirilloff turns around a month of tepid numbers at AA into good major league numbers is much like a batter who is pressing. Anything can happen, but it doesn't make it a solid move.

If Kirilloff comes up and rakes, I think most would consider it an aggressive move that paid off. If he comes up and looks completely lost, desperate might be underselling it a bit.

 

I'm not saying it is a solid move. I was addressing the idea Tom put forth in his video and voiced support for it, mostly from a fan perspective. Believe me, there is no one in the Twins organization that values my opinion when it comes to roster construct and management.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Duran would be the next most obvious candidate, after Graterol. Both of them have to be added to the 40-man after the season anyway. Alcala is in the same boat, but he's been much, much shakier in performance this season.

 

Colina and Balazovic don't have to be added until after 2020. Obviously if we really think they're ready, we can and should add them sooner. But if we're hoping to get lucky, no sense in adding them quite yet.

With Colina, I kind of see him as being in a window where you're probably not going to be too worried about his options anyway. There are a lot of other pitchers in this system on a similar timeline, so I don't think you need to milk every ounce of service time/protect options for each and every one of them. But, that's just me, that's a very subjective take, not necessarily the "right" one.

 

It's too bad Alcala hasn't taken off as a reliever because he'd be the perfect guy to go to in this conversation otherwise. 

[SwainZag]

 

I agree with the no extension for Gibby. In my opinion this is a tryout and he's failing in the big games. Too bad big Mike Pineda is on the shelf because I think he'd be the best option right now.

Baldi is showing his trust in the pen as he's had the starters out to hang 3 games in a row. It seems like he's more willing to do that since Odo had his meltdown about getting taken out too early a few weeks ago.

It's obvious this staff doesn't match up against many of the better teams. If we don't get help from the minors - outside of Smeltzer - I don't see how the squad makes it anywhere past the first round of playoffs.

 

I don't think it has anything to do with trusting the pen in any of these 3 games.  He tried to let Berrios get out of his own mess, and he failed.  It was 6-0 at that point.  

 

He let Perez pitch because it was the 3rd inning and 6-0 and a big series with the Indians started the next day.  We needed Perez to give us more innings.

 

Last night Gibson probably should have been pulled, but what...1 or 2 batters prior?  It was the 5th inning in a 2 run game.  

[laloesch]

This rotation is melting down. They can't win big games anymore and when they do have an okay start the bullpen completes the disaster.

[SwainZag]

 

This rotation is melting down. They can't win big games anymore and when they do have an okay start the bullpen completes the disaster.

 

I'm going to try and not let the last 3 games dictate if they are melting down or not. Previous to that they had won 8/10 and the rotation was pitching just fine.  Next 3 games will be telling.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

With Colina, I kind of see him as being in a window where you're probably not going to be too worried about his options anyway. There are a lot of other pitchers in this system on a similar timeline, so I don't think you need to milk every ounce of service time/protect options for each and every one of them. But, that's just me, that's a very subjective take, not necessarily the "right" one.

 

It's too bad Alcala hasn't taken off as a reliever because he'd be the perfect guy to go to in this conversation otherwise. 

Again, it's not so much about Colina's own options or service time, but rather protecting other player assets. Adding Colina to the 40-man now could leave a player like Jax, Blankenhorn, etc. unprotected this winter (or leave us with less flexibility to claim the next Kirby Yates ).

 

I haven't crunched the numbers recently -- maybe we have enough spots to protect everyone we want this winter and still protect Colina.

 

But having just added Dobnak, planning to add Graterol soon, and hopefully bringing back Thorpe and considering Duran, we also have to consider how much opportunity we could even give Colina in MLB right now.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

Gibson's performance was even worse in person. He was awful last night.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm going to try and not let the last 3 games dictate if they are melting down or not. Previous to that they had won 8/10 and the rotation was pitching just fine. Next 3 games will be telling.

Do you think they'll be facing teams like Miami, Chicago, and KC in the postseason?

[Riverbrian]

[quote name="Tom Froemming" post="897000" timestamp="1565367621

 

One last thing I want to add in regard to either a potential Graterol or Kirilloff move is at some point you have to do something. I can get behind the idea of building from within and trusting internal options. That's actually a lot of fun if you follow the minor league system. But if you're not going to be active in free agency, and you're not going to be active on the trade market, you have to do something somewhere.

 

At a certain point it does make some sense to push a prospect or two sooner than maybe you had originally intended to. Could end up being a disaster, but every once in a while you fall into a Luis Arraez situation.

 

This is exactly right. Once the front office says they don’t like the prospect price in trade considerations.

 

At that point... They have committed to internal options.

 

I’m fine with that. It is the job of the front office to weigh the costs and all considerations.

 

But once the decision is made you must move forward.

 

Standing still is not an option.

 

So start calling guys up. We have holes in the bullpen and rotation.

[gunnarthor]

 

No, Gibson has not been good vs good teams. Did you really think 39 runs in 53 innings may have been good?

 

Berrios vs playoff hopefuls; 

 

10 starts, 62.2 innings, 24 earned runs. 3.45 ERA  

 

Odorrizzi vs playoff hopefuls; 

 

13 starts, 65.1 innings, 32 earned runs, 4.41 ERA

 

Pineda vs playoff hopefuls; 

 

9 starts, 47.2 innings, 22 earned runs, 4.15 ERA

No, I mean have you compared Gibby to other pitchers besides ours? I get that he hasn't pitched well but at the same time, fangraphs has only 13 pitchers in the AL ahead of him in WAR. He'd lead the Yankees in WAR, for instance. Domingo German has a 5.40 era against playoff hopefuls, I believe. Tanaka is 5.28 or so. 

 

The point being, I'm not convinced SSS of random teams is all that helpful.

[SwainZag]

 

Do you think they'll be facing teams like Miami, Chicago, and KC in the postseason?

 

No but I don't think they will give up 6 ER in the 1st couple innings of every game either.

[Tom Froemming]

Kyle Gibson Career Numbers

 

Pitching to Castro: 5.56 ERA, 1.62 K:BB ratio, .788 opponent OPS in 137.2 IP

Pitching to Garver: 3.23 ERA, 2.85 K:BB ratio, .665 opponent OPS in 136.2 IP

 

Just something to consider going forward ...

[Jham]

1.73 ERA in 26 innings vs CWS and Baltimore, if the Twins face one of those teams in the playoffs Gibson will be ready to go.

 

4.88 ERA vs everyone else.

if you told me that our opponent in a 7 game series scored between 4 and 5 runs every game, I'd take my chances with our bats.

[Vanimal46]

Kyle Gibson Career Numbers

 

Pitching to Castro: 5.56 ERA, 1.62 K:BB ratio, .788 opponent OPS in 137.2 IP

Pitching to Garver: 3.23 ERA, 2.85 K:BB ratio, .665 opponent OPS in 136.2 IP

 

Just something to consider going forward ...

His career numbers with Castro includes 2017 before he overhauled his approach and got better. Not a fair comparison IMO.