Front Page: Twins Game Recap (8/8): Gibson Struggles, Late-Inning Rallies Fall Short

[gocgo]

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-teams-with-toughest-remaining-schedules

 

Twins have the easiest remaining schedule.  We just need to breath, get healthy, and play ball like we all know this team can.

[yarnivek1972]

Duffey?

 

I don't think so. He isn't any more trustworthy than the worst guys out there. If I'm Rocco I go to the FO and tell them I want these young fireballers up here. I also go to Romo and Rogers and tell them to eat their wheaties because we have to lean on you heavy.

 

Bottom line either way. Our starters have to at least keep you in games. I mean give up 4 runs over 6 innings and we have a chance with this team. Lately, they haven't even been able to do that.

Duffey’s most recent outing was the first time he allowed an inherited runner to score all year. Mainly because he has the highest swing and miss rate in the pen and the highest swing percentage of pitches outside the zone. No one is saying he’s Mariano Rivera, but he is easily the best RH reliever the Twins have.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Surprising to see the big WAR differences for Gibson on b-r and fangraphs. Honestly not sure which I favor.

Yeah, Gibson's ERA (4.24) and FIP (4.08) are pretty close, but his RA9 (ERA including unearned runs) is 4.95. That's one of the higher marks on the staff. Plus, contrary to what FIP suggests, B-Ref credits the Twins with slightly above-average defense, and a slight pitcher's park factor too.

 

According to B-Ref, an average pitcher with the same defense/parks/opponents as Gibson would only allow 4.82 RA9. So they think he's a little below average, hence 1.0 bWAR in 23 starts.

 

Fangraphs doesn't have as nice of a breakdown as B-Ref, but presumably they are basing Gibson's 2.5 fWAR on his 4.08 FIP which is indeed better than the AL SP average FIP of 4.66.

[puckstopper1]

Can't have starting pitching performances like the Twins have had the past 3 games and expect to make the playoffs or be a true contender during the playoffs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-teams-with-toughest-remaining-schedules

 

Twins have the easiest remaining schedule.  We just need to breath, get healthy, and play ball like we all know this team can.

Yup. 13 straight games with the White Sox and Tigers later this month, then another 13 straight with the those two clubs and the Royals to finish out the season, for 26 total.

 

Cleveland only has 16 games left with those clubs.

[HawksNest]

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-mlb-teams-with-toughest-remaining-schedules

 

Twins have the easiest remaining schedule.  We just need to breath, get healthy, and play ball like we all know this team can.

 

They've blown an 11.5 game lead

 

Is the team legit? Yeah I think the lineup most definitely is.  Or is it a .500 team that played way over its head the first 1.5 months of the season?

 

I don't know...the last 45 games are going to reveal a lot. All I know is that this team had an 11.5 game lead in early June and are now on the verge of a historic collapse of epic proportions.

 

Hope they can figure it out.

Edited August 9, 2019 by HawksNest

[Ole St Carleton]

The "Not Ready for Prime Time Players"

Starting pitching- awful- too scared to attack

Relief pitching- just as awful, if not more

Defense- sloppy

Base Running- poorly educated and executed

Offense- fantastic

 

1 out of 5 ain't good

I just wish the Twins would finally give up on the "blind squirrels": Gibson, May, Duffy. How many more years do we have to endure their ineptitude??

Let's the (young) kids play! The minor league pitchers can hardly be any worse than most of what we now have.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Can't have starting pitching performances like the Twins have had the past 3 games and expect to make the playoffs or be a true contender during the playoffs.

Well, at least that should eliminate the Yankees too.

[gunnarthor]

This team really needs Buxton back. He just makes the team better by a lot. 

 

Pitching is going to kill us in the playoffs but we'll make the playoffs. 

[Mike Sixel]

I suggest people might want to check the pitching leaderboards, sort by ERA or whatever stat you want....Gibson is an above average pitcher this year. Pitching in this era is ridiculously difficult.

 

That said, not good last night. But all these comments about his personality and his overall quality are kind of wrong....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Since June 2nd, when we had an 11.5 game lead:

 

Cleveland has gone 23-6 against truly bad teams (DET, KCR, BAL, TOR). But they've also gone 17-10 against the rest (not all world-beaters, of course, but not truly awful like the aforementioned clubs).

 

The Twins have only managed 17-10 against truly bad teams in the same stretch (DET, SEA, KCR, CHW, MIA), and 13-17 against the rest. (Our trend may be improving vs bad teams, though, 8-2 in our last 10.)

[SwainZag]

 

They've blown an 11.5 game lead

 

Is the team legit? Yeah I think the lineup most definitely is.  Or is it a .500 team that played way over its head the first 1.5 months of the season?

 

I don't know...the last 45 games are going to reveal a lot. All I know is that this team had an 11.5 game lead in early June and are now on the verge of a historic collapse of epic proportions.

 

Hope they can figure it out.

 

I don't consider a collapse when a team playing .500 or slightly above it and the other team wins at .725 clip.  Twins still on pace to win 98 games.  I don't think anyone thought or believes this team is a 110 win team.  

 

The Tribe are 19-8 since the break and 35-14 since June 12th.  That's a pace to win 117 games.

 

The bats need to wake up before the 6th inning.  They have scored 19 runs in the last 3 games, and 2 of them have come before the 6th inning.  Yes, the starting pitching needs to be better, but early runs change games.

[Battle ur tail off]

I'm just worried that our starters are wearing down. It seems like it to me. Hopefully this is just a bad stretch they are going through. But with Pineda hurt, Berrios velocity down last game, Perez struggling mightily and Gibson not able to throw strikes, it just has the feel of a staff that is starting to get tired. 

 

Hope they can dig down and give us what we need from them to continue forward and do some more winning. They literally need to take 2 of these last 3 against Cleveland so our division lead can stay where it was when this series started. We will see I guess. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I suggest people might want to check the pitching leaderboards, sort by ERA or whatever stat you want....Gibson is an above average pitcher this year

Well, not by RA9 or WAR per B-Ref.

[USAFChief]

 

I don't consider a collapse when a team playing .500 or slightly above it and the other team wins at .725 clip.  Twins still on pace to win 98 games.  I don't think anyone thought or believes this team is a 110 win team.  

 

The Tribe are 19-8 since the break and 35-14 since June 12th.  That's a pace to win 117 games.

 

The bats need to wake up before the 6th inning.  They have scored 19 runs in the last 3 games, and 2 of them have come before the 6th inning.  Yes, the starting pitching needs to be better, but early runs change games.

"Early runs change games."

 

Witness the Twins starting pitching.

[alarp33]

 

I suggest people might want to check the pitching leaderboards, sort by ERA or whatever stat you want....Gibson is an above average pitcher this year. Pitching in this era is ridiculously difficult.

That said, not good last night. But all these comments about his personality and his overall quality are kind of wrong....

 

1.73 ERA in 26 innings vs CWS and Baltimore, if the Twins face one of those teams in the playoffs Gibson will be ready to go. 

 

4.88 ERA vs everyone else. 

[JW24]

 

I couldn't sleep, so I quick whipped together some speculation on what might happen if Nelson Cruz is forced to the IL.

Really enjoyed the video. A 13th pitcher makes the most practical sense, but I love the idea of a Kirilloff call-up.

 

I think the Twins could reasonably add him to the 25 man roster to avoid burning an option, and make Cave the odd man out. I also think the way Rocco juggles his lineup and provides frequent rest would mean if Kirilloff was on the opening day roster next season he would get frequent at bats.

 

The other reason I would love a Kirilloff call-up would be the energy/excitement he would bring to the club house, especially if he has an immediate impact on the field. The Twins have looked a little lifeless as of late. Call up a big time prospect and inject a little life into everyone!

 

For all the criticism the FO got during the trade deadline, this is an aggressive roster move they could make that could have significant positive impact, with virtually no downside.

[SwainZag]

 

"Early runs change games."

 

Witness the Twins starting pitching.

 

I see that, but it goes both ways.

[alarp33]

Vs Playoff teams (or playoff hopefuls); NYM, NYY, TBR, BOS, OAK, CLE; 

 

10 starts, 53 innings, 39 runs, 31 earned runs.  5.07 ERA with a whopping 8 unearned runs. 4 of the 10 games didn't get out of the 5th inning. 

[SwainZag]

 

Really enjoyed the video. A 13th pitcher makes the most practical sense, but I love the idea of a Kirilloff call-up.

 

I think the Twins could reasonably add him to the 25 man roster to avoid burning an option, and make Cave the odd man out. I also think the way Rocco juggles his lineup and provides frequent rest would mean if Kirilloff was on the opening day roster next season he would get frequent at bats.

 

The other reason I would love a Kirilloff call-up would be the energy/excitement he would bring to the club house, especially if he has an immediate impact on the field. The Twins have looked a little lifeless as of late. Call up a big time prospect and inject a little life into everyone!

 

For all the criticism the FO got during the trade deadline, this is an aggressive roster move they could make that could have significant positive impact, with virtually no downside.

 

I get the excitement of someone new and fresh and highly regarded, but he's 21 hitting .269/.330/.391 in AA.  It just seems like a wasted option, much like they did with Jorge in 2014 if they call him up right now.

[JW24]

 

I get the excitement of someone new and fresh and highly regarded, but he's 21 hitting .269/.330/.391 in AA.  It just seems like a wasted option, much like they did with Jorge in 2014 if they call him up right now.

Yeah, I get that. But Jorge has worked out pretty darn well. I don't think the Twins regret calling him up early at this point.

 

Also, Kirilloff isn't hitting the juiced baseballs AAA and MLB play with. Not saying that is going to turn him into Yordan Alvarez, but it might help his numbers a little.

 

I would rather see Kirilloff in the lineup than Cave. Considering Buxton is going to be out until September-ish, and Cruz for some amount of time, I think Kirilloff could be rostered without burning the option. Cave would continue his pingpong between MN and Rochester.

[yarnivek1972]

That’s a pretty big gamble. What if he struggles so badly you have to send him down? Then you do burn that option.

[Battle ur tail off]

Honestly, burn it. Who cares. If he is as good as advertised, you won't need all of those option years because he will be up and playing with the big club. 

 

That said, if he comes up and struggles mightily and has to be sent back down, I think you lose a little of his trade value if you are thinking there is any chance you move him this offseason. 

 

There is also the confidence thing. He might not be ready and by exposing him and possibly him failing, you might do more harm than good to the kid's development. 

Edited August 9, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

[Vanimal46]

Honestly, burn it. Who cares. If he is as good as advertised, you won't need all of those option years because he will be up and playing with the big club.

 

That said, if he comes up and struggles mightily and has to be sent back down, I think you lose a little of his trade value if you are thinking there is any chance you move him this offseason.

 

There is also the confidence thing. He might not be ready and by exposing him and possibly him failing, you might do more harm than good to the kid's development.

Actually, burning options is a big deal when it comes to prospects you think will be stars. You don't want to be stuck in the future if he's struggling as a 24 year old and unable to send him to AAA.

 

When it comes to marginal prospects like relievers, then I agree. Burn em...

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Really enjoyed the video. A 13th pitcher makes the most practical sense, but I love the idea of a Kirilloff call-up.

 

I think the Twins could reasonably add him to the 25 man roster to avoid burning an option, and make Cave the odd man out. I also think the way Rocco juggles his lineup and provides frequent rest would mean if Kirilloff was on the opening day roster next season he would get frequent at bats.

 

The other reason I would love a Kirilloff call-up would be the energy/excitement he would bring to the club house, especially if he has an immediate impact on the field. The Twins have looked a little lifeless as of late. Call up a big time prospect and inject a little life into everyone!

 

For all the criticism the FO got during the trade deadline, this is an aggressive roster move they could make that could have significant positive impact, with virtually no downside.

Virtually no downside?

 

Alex Kirilloff at AA

Last 7 days: .200/.238/.350, .588 OPS

Last 28 days: .263/.278/.347, .626 OPS

Last 90 days: .268/.320/.395, .715 OPS

 

At Fangraphs, Steamer projects him at 89 wRC+, virtually the same as Cave's 86.

 

And it's not just a matter of potentially burning an option with Kirilloff in 2019 -- he doesn't have to be protected from Rule 5 until after the 2020 season. Obviously if he's ready we will call him up before then -- but he hardly looks ready right now. Taking that gamble now will leave you with one less 40-man roster spot for the rest of this season and offseason. (And even if you can hide him on the expanded September rosters in 2019 to avoid burning an option this year, you'd almost certainly burn an unnecessary option on him for 2020, although his readiness and the 40-man spot are more important considerations.)

[Mike Sixel]

1.73 ERA in 26 innings vs CWS and Baltimore, if the Twins face one of those teams in the playoffs Gibson will be ready to go.

 

4.88 ERA vs everyone else.

Do Cruz's numbers against bad teams not count too? What do you think the league ERA is if you take out the bad hitting teams from every pitcher?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Actually, burning options is a big deal when it comes to prospects you think will be stars. You don't want to be stuck in the future if he's struggling as a 24 year old and unable to send him to AAA.

When it comes to marginal prospects like relievers, then I agree. Burn em...

Actually, future stars are less likely to need the option than more marginal guys. Although it's still nice to have, in case you need it.

 

But see my post above -- burning an option isn't even the 1st or 2nd most important consideration with a potential Kirilloff call-up right now.

[SwainZag]

 

Actually, burning options is a big deal when it comes to prospects you think will be stars. You don't want to be stuck in the future if he's struggling as a 24 year old and unable to send him to AAA.

When it comes to marginal prospects like relievers, then I agree. Burn em...

 

There were a large group of posters who ripped the front office a new one for burning Jorge's option in 2014, and I think I was probably one of them.  There were people in 2017 who suggested DFA'ing him because he was struggling and they couldn't send him down.  Yes, he turned out fine, but was it worth 20 combined plate appearances he got in the bigs in 2014 and 2015?  It's extremely risky, especially for an offense who still has a ton of explosion even without Cruz and Buck in the lineup.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I get the excitement of someone new and fresh and highly regarded, but he's 21 hitting .269/.330/.391 in AA.  It just seems like a wasted option, much like they did with Jorge in 2014 if they call him up right now.

Polanco was already required to be on the 40-man roster in 2014 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, which is why he got called up when we needed an infielder for a few days. He was already burning an option regardless of whether we called him up that year or not.

 

It would make far less sense to add Kirilloff to the 40-man roster now, unnecessarily, even before considering whether he might burn an option.

[JW24]

 

Virtually no downside?

 

Alex Kirilloff at AA

Last 7 days: .200/.238/.350, .588 OPS

Last 28 days: .263/.278/.347, .626 OPS

Last 90 days: .268/.320/.395, .715 OPS

 

At Fangraphs, Steamer projects him at 89 wRC+, virtually the same as Cave's 86.

 

And it's not just a matter of potentially burning an option with Kirilloff in 2019 -- he doesn't have to be protected from Rule 5 until after the 2020 season. Obviously if he's ready we will call him up before then -- but he hardly looks ready right now. Taking that gamble now will leave you with one less 40-man roster spot for the rest of this season and offseason. (And even if you can hide him on the expanded September rosters in 2019 to avoid burning an option this year, you'd almost certainly burn an unnecessary option on him for 2020, although his readiness and the 40-man spot are more important considerations.)

I look at it as him taking Cave's 40-man spot after the season.

 

I am willing to take the risk of burning an option for the potential reward Kirilloff could provide. If he isn't going to be ready to contribute to the Twins prior to next September, they why didn't the Twins shop him more aggressively during the trade deadline?

 

Maybe this is why I don't have a job in the Twins front office, but I would be fairly aggressive moving Kirilloff up and taking the risks involved.