Front Page: Dyson Drama: The Case of the Mystery Injury

[Battle ur tail off]

Nice post/article. 

 

I don't see Dyson as IMPACT help any way you slice it though. Not in my opinion. If he was impact help, he would have cost us a prospect that other teams see as a real part of their future. 

 

Impact help in the BP was Diaz from the Mets. Or some other guy with hard stuff and hammer breaking pitches. At best, even if we were getting the type of guy we thought we were, Dyson is a guy that doesn't strike many out, and has marginal type stuff. Is he better than what we had? Probably, or at least when healthy he should be. But I wouldn't call it impact help. Just my opinion. 

 

The twins scouting department and FO should be scolded heavily for this mistake. Getting a guy that was injured and showing signs of it before he was traded feels like they didn't do their homework on him. He was in a stretch of sucking before he got here, and he's been bad/hurt here now. 

 

 

Edited August 8, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

[ashbury]

This would be fairly typical for a professional ballplayer – gutting it out in the name of "toughness" while hurting yourself and your team in the process. It's a toxic mindset

Concur completely on the first sentence, disagree strongly with the second.

 

There is no "on/off" switch or "yes/no" dashboard light with regard to injury. It's all shades of gray, until maybe something goes snap. Players are told to report injury, then they get a thousand subtle lessons to not bother the staff with minor things you can play through. "God heals and the doctor takes the fees." -- Benjamin Franklin, baseball coach

 

And yes, sometimes this approach hurts the team, and the player himself.

 

The problem with the analysis, and calling the mindset toxic, is the voluminous missing data. How many times do pitchers take the approach Dyson took, with what started off as an owie, and it works out great? We just hear about the cases where it doesn't work out great, and then start to look around for malfeasance on somebody's part.

 

The pitcher himself is often ill-positioned to make the judgement, and the team trainer then would have to go on general principles if given the vague information. As a boss of mine used to ask me, "what would you do with that information, if you had it?" So, the pitcher keeps it to himself, until necessary.

 

As an analogy, how many times have we heard about a pitcher having great stuff while warming up and then getting rocked after entering the game - or once in a while a pitcher pitches a gem and we hear later that while warming up he wasn't even sure he could go? The pitcher is nearly as much in the dark as anyone.

 

Absent further information, I've got this one in the Bad Luck All Around pigeonhole.

[jkcarew]

Unlike many of Byron Buxton's 'bad breaks'...I'm not sure this 'fiasco' could have been realistically avoided.

[Mr. Brooks]

The Chief has it right.

 

Think about it. The Yanks got Encarnacion and the Mets got Stroman cheap because they knew what they wanted, they knew how much they were prepared to pay, and they acted on their own timetable, doing business early before things heated up as the deadline loomed. Because they took the initiative, their moves also influenced the rest of the market, taking valuable pieces coveted by other teams off the table, raising prices on what remained.

 

We should have done our shopping in April and May.

Encarnacion was a salary dump.

Nobody is trading an impact pitcher in April or May.

[Mr. Brooks]

Yes, I believe it's when the Twins started shopping seriously because the BP was something that was not addressed earlier, i.e. in the offseason.

 

And no, I don't think prices ever became reasonable, as the best out there weren't moved, with one or two exceptions.

 

But, I think the Twins got the best that was attainable at this time, because 1) they didn't address it sooner, and 2) the best wasn't being sold for reasonable prices

I find it odd that they got Romo two days before the deadline then, if they only started shopping 5 minutes before the deadline.

[twinbythebay]

 

Yeah...I did my fair share of bashing the FO last year because I was very angry that they tanked the season so early however....How come almost everyone on this site knows that the major weakness of our team is the back end of our bullpen. Even before Spring Training I could clearly see that this team would score plenty of runs. ..I liked the Perez signing and I thought a wild card would be Pineda. All that has been as good as we could have hoped. But man how disappointing that guys like Kimbrell were out there and all we can come up with are Blake Parker, a washed up Cody Allen , Sergio Romo and Dyson, the third best option on what had been a last place Giants team. I'm tired if hearing how smart they are and how much money they can spend. SPEND SOME!. Didn't the Yankees just prove that they can out bash us anywhere and anytime. This was a time to make a statement. (Sort of like the Braves just did by getting Green, Melancon, and Martin....oh yeah...and Keuchel) Man a lot of really good pitchers slipped through our hands this year.

 

You mean the same Craig Kimbrel who has pitched to the tune of a 5.68 ERA, 6.77 FIP, -0.4 fWAR, and is currently on the IL? I think the Twins did well to avoid signing him. I do agree that they absolutely dropped the ball in the offseason by making Blake Parker their top bullpen acquisition, which put them in a very tough spot at the trade deadline.

 

And the three relievers that Atlanta picked up at the deadline haven't exactly had great results so far. I'd still take the Twins' pen over Atlanta's at this point (assuming Dyson can bounce back and pitch like his normal self soon).

[twinbythebay]

 

I really doubt he's hurt. Every pitcher has a sore shoulder after they pitch. This time of year especially. it's a mistake to rely on him going forward, imo. Addison Reed 2.0. There's a reason no one else wanted this guy and he came on the cheap.

 

Fangraphs did call him the best reliever traded at the deadline... I'm more inclined to trust his past year and a half of solid performance rather than his two rough outings with the Twins so far with a sore arm. Give him a couple of weeks off, and I think he'll return to form and be a solid setup man again. However, it does suck that he probably won't provide much (if any) value to the team in August, and that alone makes the trade look a lot worse.

[Squirrel]

 

I find it odd that they got Romo two days before the deadline then, if they only started shopping 5 minutes before the deadline.

I considered that as last- minute ... maybe not as last-minute as Dyson, but it's last-minute when the need for BP arms wasn't addressed in the off-season, imo. We all knew it was a weakness going into ST. But then, maybe we were counting on some things to happen that didn't. Still ... it was not only a weakness, it was a glaring weakness. Addressing it in late July, when 2 minutes before the deadline or 2 days before ... is last-minute shopping when we knew it needed to happen back in November.

 

All 'imo', of course. But that's how I feel about it. 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I’m just glad Rocco lobbied to bring in Romo at this point.

[Squirrel]

 

Fangraphs did call him the best reliever traded at the deadline... I'm more inclined to trust his past year and a half of solid performance rather than his two rough outings with the Twins so far with a sore arm. Give him a couple of weeks off, and I think he'll return to form and be a solid setup man again. However, it does suck that he probably won't provide much (if any) value to the team in August, and that alone makes the trade look a lot worse.

Right. I'm not about to get all riotous about it because, well, it's just a game, and two, it sucks, so be it, and three, I'm hoping he can help in the long run. But in the short run, yeah, makes the trade look a lot worse. And if he doesn't get better? Sigh. I don't want to think about that just yet.

[Minny505]

 

The culture point is an angle of this I hadn’t thought about. Just have to hope at this point he gets healthy and will be effective when he returns and that there isn’t any toughing out that creeps into the rest of the team.

 

If anything, I would think this whole experience would have the opposite effect. By toughing it out, Dyson let down his new teammates in a BIG way, likely generating some resentment in the clubhouse. It should.

 

I hope his teammates give him **** about it. The best way to get rid of such a misguided attitude is to shame those who engage in it...in a fun, playful, teammates breaking each others balls, sort of way. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

 

Encarnacion was a salary dump.
Nobody is trading an impact pitcher in April or May.

 

Encarnacion was a salary dump.

Nevertheless, New York knew they wanted him and they got him.  Now he doesn't play for another team that can hurt them.

 

Nobody is trading an impact pitcher in April or May.

Perhaps.  But others have noted there was also the off season, and nobody was blind to shortcomings in the roster.  In any case, Stroman came much cheaper because the Mets grabbed him before any other major pitching trades, and that action changed the market behavior of other buyers and sellers.

[Nick Nelson]

 

The problem with the analysis, and calling the mindset toxic, is the voluminous missing data. How many times do pitchers take the approach Dyson took, with what started off as an owie, and it works out great? We just hear about the cases where it doesn't work out great, and then start to look around for malfeasance on somebody's part.

True to an extent, but players need to know their bodies, limits and thresholds. It's part of being a professional athlete. If he was in pain lifting a plate at home, he probably shouldn't have been on the mound pitching in important spots for a first-place team.

 

I get how he'd feel confident pitching through it based on the results in those final appearances with the Giants, but after his meltdown in the Twins debut? Come on.

[Squirrel]

 

If anything, I would think this whole experience would have the opposite effect. By toughing it out, Dyson let down his new teammates in a BIG way, likely generating some resentment in the clubhouse. It should.

 

I hope his teammates give him **** about it. The best way to get rid of such a misguided attitude is to shame those who engage in it...in a fun, playful, teammates breaking each others balls, sort of way. 

I hope he learns something from it, but I really hope his teammates don't give him **** about it and make his job here any harder. I hope they welcome him and 'show him the way' ... we don't need a bad clubhouse.

[alarp33]

 

 

Having said all that, I have a hard time letting Derek Falvey and Thad Levine off the hook entirely, even if they weren't made aware of this arm problem. I remarked in my Week in Review column on Sunday, published before Dyson revealed that the issue had been affecting him for half a month, that his "issue actually appears to date back a ways; in his last four appearances with the Giants, he got only one swing-and-miss on 42 pitches after inducing 18 in his first eight July outings (15% rate)."

In my mind, when a pitcher who's accustomed to missing bats suddenly stops doing so in such stark fashion, it's one of the clearest indicators something is wrong. One swinging strike on 42 pitches is egregious; by comparison, Ehire Adrianza got two swinging strikes on 14 pitches when he threw an inning against the Mets in July. Now, after pitching twice for the Twins, Dyson has induced two whiffs on his last 80 pitches.

 

 

This is such an absurd leap on a small sample size I almost have to respect it. I can't tell if you actually believe that is evidence or not or if its a troll. He pitched 4 innings, gave up 2 hits (one was an infield hit) and his velocity was in line with what it was all season. 

 

Nice cherry pick of the dates too, seeing as he said he got hurt around All Star break, but you failed to go that far back since he got 9 swinging strikes in the 3 innings between then and your arbitrary date

[yarnivek1972]

This is such an absurd leap on a small sample size I almost have to respect it. I can't tell if you actually believe that is evidence or not or if its a troll. He pitched 4 innings, gave up 2 hits (one was an infield hit) and his velocity was in line with what it was all season.

 

Nice cherry pick of the dates too, seeing as he said he got hurt around All Star break, but you failed to go that far back since he got 9 swinging strikes in the 3 innings between then and your arbitrary date

Dyson has said it started bothering him after the second series after the break. The “cherry pick” is based on Dyson’s own statements.

 

From the pioneer press article:

 

After being put on the 10-day injured list Sunday with what was diagnosed as right biceps tendinitis, Dyson spoke to reporters Monday and said he’s been dealing with the issue since the second series after the all-star break.

[alarp33]

 

Dyson has said it started bothering him after the second series after the break. The “cherry pick” is based on Dyson’s own statements.

From the pioneer press article:

After being put on the 10-day injured list Sunday with what was diagnosed as right biceps tendinitis, Dyson spoke to reporters Monday and said he’s been dealing with the issue since the second series after the all-star break.

 

He said he noticed it during the Colorado series, which was not included in that cherry picked 4 game sample

[alarp33]

 

Dyson has said it started bothering him after the second series after the break. The “cherry pick” is based on Dyson’s own statements.

From the pioneer press article:

After being put on the 10-day injured list Sunday with what was diagnosed as right biceps tendinitis, Dyson spoke to reporters Monday and said he’s been dealing with the issue since the second series after the all-star break.

 

Dyson's Swinging strike %; 

 

Season - 9%

Since start of CO series (unclear if he was hurt 1st appearance, or 2nd appearance) - 12%

After CO series until trade - 9%

 

Again, please show me how the stats the author used are relevant in the least

[Battle ur tail off]

Either way all of this could have been avoided had the Twins went after it and picked up Diaz or Vazquez. They didn't though and tried to little engine that could their way into a cheap guy that wouldn't cost them much in prospects. I don't feel bad for them one bit. They got what they paid for. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

This is such an absurd leap on a small sample size I almost have to respect it. I can't tell if you actually believe that is evidence or not or if its a troll. He pitched 4 innings, gave up 2 hits (one was an infield hit) and his velocity was in line with what it was all season. 

 

Nice cherry pick of the dates too, seeing as he said he got hurt around All Star break, but you failed to go that far back since he got 9 swinging strikes in the 3 innings between then and your arbitrary date

It's not a cherry-pick. On Sunday when putting together my column I noted that he had only one swinging strike on 38 pitches as a Twin, and thought it seemed strikingly low. Then, I looked at his game logs and noticed this scarcity of whiffs seemed to date back a little further, so I made mention of it. 

 

So when he came out the following day and said, "Yeah, I've been pitching through this for a while," I felt the correlation might be worth revisiting. Injuries don't always manifest in one's performance instantly. You can disagree with the meaningfulness of the data but settle down over there. 

[Castinofan]

Twins should have done some due diligence.  SF Giants claimed they wanted to compete and they kept Bumgarner and Smith, even though both are free agents in 2020.  Yet they were willing to deal Dyson, who is team-controlled in 2020.  

 

IF SF honestly believed they had a chance at the playoffs, why not keep Dyson, too?  

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This is such an absurd leap on a small sample size I almost have to respect it. I can't tell if you actually believe that is evidence or not or if its a troll. He pitched 4 innings, gave up 2 hits (one was an infield hit) and his velocity was in line with what it was all season. 

 

Nice cherry pick of the dates too, seeing as he said he got hurt around All Star break, but you failed to go that far back since he got 9 swinging strikes in the 3 innings between then and your arbitrary date

Pretty sure Nick Nelson's not a troll.

 

It's a small sample, to be sure, but wouldn't you also expect the effects to get worse over time? It's not a binary thing. If he noticed the problem in the COL series, it may have affected his performance more later. In which case, the most recent results would seem to be most relevant to the discussion.

 

Has he had other streaks of 1 swinging strike out of 42 pitches? How normal is that? (I honestly don't know.)

Edited August 8, 2019 by spycake

[alarp33]

 

Pretty sure Nick Nelson's not a troll.

 

It's a small sample, to be sure, but wouldn't you also expect the effects to get worse over time? It's not a binary thing. If he noticed the problem in the COL series, it may have affected his performance more later. In which case, the most recent results would seem to be most relevant to the discussion.

 

Has he had other streaks of 1 swinging strike out of 42 pitches? How normal is that? (I honestly don't know.)

 

Yes he has, and many streaks where its maybe 2 swinging strikes in that many pitches. 

 

If you want to make a correlation to an injury in CO, and blame the Twins for not noticing the injury in CO, you should use the date that points back to the day he said he was hurt, rather than cherry pick a 4 game sample size that doesn't fit the narrative. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

Yes he has, and many streaks where its maybe 2 swinging strikes in that many pitches. 

 

If you want to make a correlation to an injury in CO, and blame the Twins for not noticing the injury in CO, you should use the date that points back to the day he said he was hurt, rather than cherry pick a 4 game sample size that doesn't fit the narrative. 

To claim I'm cherry-picking would suggest I selected this date range based on what he said, which I didn't. Did you miss the part where I was referencing a casual remark made before he said any of this?

[alarp33]

 

To claim I'm cherry-picking would suggest I selected this date range based on what he said, which I didn't. Did you miss the part where I was referencing a casual remark made before he said any of this?

 

You blamed Falvey and Levine for not knowing he was hurt by using those 4 appearances, 42 pitches, where his velocity was fine, he got through 4 innings with giving up 2 hits (1 infield) and no runs. You said he stopped missing bats in "such stark fashion" a "clear indicator something was wrong".

 

He didnt struggle getting batters out, didn't struggle missing bats (he averaged under 11 pitches per inning appearance) yet used that as evidence the Twins didn't do their jobs... while also ignoring his previous appearance included 4 swinging strikes (apparently after said injury)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If you want to make a correlation to an injury in CO, and blame the Twins for not noticing the injury in CO, you should use the date that points back to the day he said he was hurt, rather than cherry pick a 4 game sample size that doesn't fit the narrative. 

Again, it's not a binary issue. His arm didn't fall off in Colorado, he started noticing an issue then. An issue one could expect to get progressively worse.

 

Similar to what you'd expect if a batter tweaked his wrist. Maybe he shakes it off, plays through it, and does all right for a few games -- but it could get worse over time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes he has, and many streaks where its maybe 2 swinging strikes in that many pitches. 

Just curious, when were those streaks? (Honestly just looking for a good tool to easily identify them!)

[Heezy1323]

Nicely done article Nick. I've enjoyed the discussion as well.

For this who are interested, I wrote a blog post about biceps tendinitis here:

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/1036/entry-11602-biceps-tendinitis-qa/

 

My guess would be that it was bothering him a little bit, but that he didn't think it was having a signifiant effect on his performance while in SF, and therefore didn't say anything (you can have a valid argument regarding whether this is appropriate or not, but that is a different discussion). He was likely hoping it would settle down over some time (which these issues often do), but had some issues his first couple outings here and was asked about it- at which point this came to light. It seems unlikely to me they would have put him back out there for his second appearance if they had know of a problem after the first (IMHO). 

Edited August 8, 2019 by Heezy1323

[alarp33]

 

Again, it's not a binary issue. His arm didn't fall off in Colorado, he started noticing an issue then. An issue one could expect to get progressively worse.

 

Similar to what you'd expect if a batter tweaked his wrist. Maybe he shakes it off, plays through it, and does all right for a few games -- but it could get worse over time.

 

The suggestion in the article is that the Twins failed to do their job by not noticing this issue. You are suggesting (like the author) that they should have noticed even though no stats seem to back up that claim? Again, throwing 10.5 pitches per inning, plenty of strikes, with normal velo it not evidence of an issue getting worse the Twins could have realistically known about

[alarp33]

 

Just curious, when were those streaks? (Honestly just looking for a good tool to easily identify them!)

 

Baseball reference Game logs. Mid May he had 3 straight appearances with 0 swinging strikes, and on each side of those 3 games had a game with 12 pitches and 1 swinging strike.

 

55 pitches in Mid June with 2 swinging strikes. Again, this really wasn't that huge of anomaly. He wasn't struggling through appearances. He threw 42 effective pitches across 4 outings 

Edited August 8, 2019 by alarp33