Front Page: What Happened to Eddie Rosario’s Defense?

[Bomba2026]

Maybe he just sees Buxton getting hurt all the time and doesn't want to end up like him? I think he is just being cautious and smarter.

[Crackedfungo]

Wow.. Eddie is the most energetic guy on the team.  He delivers in the clutch, and is both a hitter for average/power, with above average speed/arm, who is also playing through a nagging ankle injury.  There is a certain brashness to his play - BIG DEAL, it makes him who he is in the clutch.  He is also a VERY good baseball player.  We DO NOT know if AK, Rooker, or Larnach can hit MLB pitching yet.  In fact, each has struggled a bit moving up a level.  MLB is the BIGGEST jump, and Rosario is a borderline all-Star every year.  You people are clueless to blow this dog whistle again.  I heard this same crap on TD a couple of years ago about Rosario, which abated as he tore up league pitching, yet here we go again. 

 

We are also pitching quite well with at least 3/4 - 4/5 of the starters, and are going to need spots for Smeltzer, Graterol, Gonsalves/Stewart/Thorpe, Balazovic and Duran within two years or less.  So, you are proposing to trade a proven player like Rosario for a vet high mileage pitcher (this winter) and HOPE Larnach, Rooker, or AK don't take 2-3 years to figure out what took Buxton, Hicks, and others at least that many?  Glad we have no FAN GMs in charge.....I vote 'no' on trading our proven players for high mileage (overpriced) pitchers that may not even perform to Gibson or Pineda level, and only pitch every fifth day.

[stringer bell]

FWIW, bbref had Rosario listed as a plus defender (runs above average) in 2015-17. Not so much this year or last. 

 

One thing I've repeatedly seen out of Eddie is jogging after balls that get past him  down the left field line. I've thought he was baiting guys to try for third on "automatic" doubles, believing he would throw them out of they tried to stretch for a triple.

 

If throwing is included in these metrics, I have seen far fewer "huh?" throws from Eddie, but far fewer runners trying to take an extra base. He's gotten leather on, but not caught, several balls these last two seasons and my eyes tell me that his jumps on balls are worse, or at least not improved. 

 

As far as trading Rosario, I don't know. He's been a borderline All-Star two straight years and loves the big moment. He has periods of invisibility . If someone from the Twins' system reduces his playing time, I do believe he could be moved without much loss on the field.

[Crackedfungo]

One other question:  IF you are down by one with a man on first with advancement on the line in the playoffs (2 outs, bottom of the 9th, winner take all), who do you want up to bat?

 

1)  Kepler

 

2)  Buxton

 

3)  Sano

 

4)  Polanco

 

5)  Cruz

 

6)  Rosario

 

7)  Arraez/Cron/Garver/etal

 

I am taking Rosario every time.  He has delivered (in both minors and majors), and thrives in these moments.  How did you feel about Aaron Hicks sticking it to us in the Yankees series a few weeks back?  Rosario would shove it up our backside worse than Hicks.

[USAFChief]

Wow.. Eddie is the most energetic guy on the team. He delivers in the clutch, and is both a hitter for average/power, with above average speed/arm, who is also playing through a nagging ankle injury. There is a certain brashness to his play - BIG DEAL, it makes him who he is in the clutch. He is also a VERY good baseball player. We DO NOT know if AK, Rooker, or Larnach can hit MLB pitching yet. In fact, each has struggled a bit moving up a level. MLB is the BIGGEST jump, and Rosario is a borderline all-Star every year. You people are clueless to blow this dog whistle again. I heard this same crap on TD a couple of years ago about Rosario, which abated as he tore up league pitching, yet here we go again.

 

We are also pitching quite well with at least 3/4 - 4/5 of the starters, and are going to need spots for Smeltzer, Graterol, Gonsalves/Stewart/Thorpe, Balazovic and Duran within two years or less. So, you are proposing to trade a proven player like Rosario for a vet high mileage pitcher (this winter) and HOPE Larnach, Rooker, or AK don't take 2-3 years to figure out what took Buxton, Hicks, and others at least that many? Glad we have no FAN GMs in charge.....I vote 'no' on trading our proven players for high mileage (overpriced) pitchers that may not even perform to Gibson or Pineda level, and only pitch every fifth day.

we're going to need spots for every minor league pitcher of note, but not one OF prospect can take Rosario's spot?

 

Not sure that's realistic.

[yarnivek1972]

Darn it. Accidentally deleted my post.

 

Rosario’s “clutch” stats are right in line with his overall stats both in 2019 and his career. Never trust the “eye” test. They usually lie.

 

Rooker is already 24. It’s his turn. Marwin, Cave/Wade (I would expect one to be a roster casualty this offseason) and Astudillo are the “plan B” options. That’s plenty of a safety net.

 

Who is talking about a “high mileage veteran” pitcher? Rosario won’t fetch a proven MLB starter. Reliever probably. Solid close to MLB ready prospect is more likely. Like a step up from Smeltzer for example.

 

 

Let’s also bare in mind that money is always a factor in Twins roster decisions. The Twins have a far greater need for pitching than they do for Rosario IMO.

[Twodogs]

Someone somewhere also probably said a few years back that Nelson Cruz has lost a step too.  I find it difficult to replace a guy who has been doing it at the Major league level with some guys who project out to be Major league players.  Eddie is a really good player and you're just not going to replace him with some guy who has never played at the MLB level as of this point in time.  Now on the other hand, if when guys like Buxton go down with injuries the Twins were to bring one of those guys up instead of wade and Cave then they would be able to see if they can replace them.  

[Doomtints]

 

FWIW, bbref had Rosario listed as a plus defender (runs above average) in 2015-17. Not so much this year or last.

 

And yet in 2015-2017 people complained about his defense and he was benched for his defense more than once by Molitor.

 

I agree that he looks like the same defender this year that he looked like last year.

[Crackedfungo]

 

we're going to need spots for every minor league pitcher of note, but not one OF prospect can take Rosario's spot?

Not sure that's realistic.

The point wasn't that we have to find a spot for everyone of these pitchers, but one-two of them will be able to deliver 4.40-4.80 ERA, and 20-30 starts right out of the gate, or they will be optioned for one of about 7-8 other alternatives NEXT YEAR.  You will have Berrios, and at least two-three of Odo, Gibson, Pineda, and Perez (one has an option, two others will be re-signed is my guess). As for OF, you have to replace a borderline All Star (in trading Rosario), and expect 1 of 3 OFs to replace that level of DAILY production in their first or second year in MLB?  I don't see it....

 

You are also not going to get a front-line starter without Rosario, and two Top 5 players.  Look at the trade deadline moves or lack thereof, for a guy that takes the ball every 5th day.  I sure wouldn't do that for an everyday borderline All Star and have only HOPES for a high end MiLB talent to produce in Year 1 or 2.  Losing proposition.  You also never know what you are going to get - all those starters and relievers we wanted going into this year and last have rarely panned out (Kuechel, Arrieta, Darvish......take your pick of relievers - NO THANKS).  Need to re-sign what we can, and grow our own.  Just my $.02

[Crackedfungo]

 

Someone somewhere also probably said a few years back that Nelson Cruz has lost a step too.  I find it difficult to replace a guy who has been doing it at the Major league level with some guys who project out to be Major league players.  Eddie is a really good player and you're just not going to replace him with some guy who has never played at the MLB level as of this point in time.  Now on the other hand, if when guys like Buxton go down with injuries the Twins were to bring one of those guys up instead of wade and Cave then they would be able to see if they can replace them.  

Standing applause.  Two Dogs gets it.  There will be options next year to see what Larnach, Rooker, and AK can do.  Trading Rosario is NOT the way to 'get their feet wet.'  They are still more than 2-3 years from being a reasonable replacement (if we are lucky).  I would not have traded Rosario or Buxton straight up for Syndergaard either.  He is no better than 3-5 of our starters this year, and not nearly as good as Berrios.  (His past years are in the past unless he proves otherwise).  Wasn't he the board's MOST coveted starter via trade and above MadBum?  Who does the board think they could get as a Top Line starter for Rosario and a 5-10 ranked prospect?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Wow.. Eddie is the most energetic guy on the team.  He delivers in the clutch, and is both a hitter for average/power, with above average speed/arm, who is also playing through a nagging ankle injury.  There is a certain brashness to his play - BIG DEAL, it makes him who he is in the clutch.  He is also a VERY good baseball player.  We DO NOT know if AK, Rooker, or Larnach can hit MLB pitching yet.  In fact, each has struggled a bit moving up a level.  MLB is the BIGGEST jump, and Rosario is a borderline all-Star every year.  You people are clueless to blow this dog whistle again.  I heard this same crap on TD a couple of years ago about Rosario, which abated as he tore up league pitching, yet here we go again. 

 

We are also pitching quite well with at least 3/4 - 4/5 of the starters, and are going to need spots for Smeltzer, Graterol, Gonsalves/Stewart/Thorpe, Balazovic and Duran within two years or less.  So, you are proposing to trade a proven player like Rosario for a vet high mileage pitcher (this winter) and HOPE Larnach, Rooker, or AK don't take 2-3 years to figure out what took Buxton, Hicks, and others at least that many?  Glad we have no FAN GMs in charge.....I vote 'no' on trading our proven players for high mileage (overpriced) pitchers that may not even perform to Gibson or Pineda level, and only pitch every fifth day.

 

Where do you propose getting 4 pitchers next year, if not in trade (since you don't want older pitchers, which are the only available in trade or FA)?

[SomeGuy]

I doubt Rosario is playing through a nagging injury. This team has been extremely conservative with injuries.

[Major League Ready]

Rosario was great the 1st half of 2018. Since then he has produced .9 Fwar. Zero for the 2nd half of last year and .9 to date this year. He is 10th among our position players in fWAR this season. I would sure hope one of our OF prospects could produce better than what we have seen in Rosario since the 1st half of last year. I also would not expect much in a trade.

[Mike Sixel]

Rosario was great the 1st half of 2018. Since then he has produced .9 Fwar. Zero for the 2nd half of last year and .9 to date this year. He is 10th among our position players in fWAR this season. I would sure hope one of our OF prospects could produce better than what we have seen in Rosario since the 1st half of last year. I also would not expect much in a trade.

Agree on all fronts. At a minimum, one of the young guys can do that by their second year, and do it for a lot less money, which will be needed for pitching and hopefully Sano or Buxton.

 

Wow, nice sentence....

[Crackedfungo]

 

Where do you propose getting 4 pitchers next year, if not in trade (since you don't want older pitchers, which are the only available in trade or FA)?

I would re-sign two of them, and pick up the option on Perez.  Then, I would bring up the best of the 7-8 that are knocking on the door and stick with the one whom adapts the best.  Right now, though ERA is NOT the end all for pitchers, our starting pitchers are 7, 23, 38, 44, and 59 in ERA.  That is among 30 Teams of 5 starters each.  For a comparative, Keuchel (would be 30th if he qualified), Syndergaard is 35, Darvish is 49, Arrieta is 53, Wheeler is 54, and Sale is 62.  At one time or another, many on this board have salivated over these pitchers, many of which cost over $20MM/year.  Many also want to trade significant assets for them (Rosario, Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, etc...).  My question is why!?!?  IF you can sign two of Gibson/Pineda/Odo and pick up the option on Perez, why would you bother investing proven MLB players or top MiLB prospects for these high-cost and high-mileage pitchers with these types of results!?!  If you say it is just a 'down year' for this group, I ask you whether you would feel good trading a premium asset for a declining asset that is also going to cost you close to Mauer money (Darvish, or Sale)?  Not me.  You could lock up two of our three FA pitchers, whom are paid $5MM, $8.1MM, and $9MM respectively, for a great deal less than any of the above, say $12MM-$15MM, and you would be in better shape than all but a few teams (and you would not have to sacrifice an asset).  That is assuming they maintain performance, but you have the same concern with these older high-mileage options, as well.  Moreover, when are we going to open 1-2 spots for a young pitcher that is controllable, talented and cheap (from among Smeltzer, Graterol, Duran, Balazovic, etc), and might be the next Cole, Syndergaard, or Sale?  Waiting too long can cause the prospects to go stale in AAA (see Stewart, Gonsalves, all the relievers like JT Chargois, Reed, Burdi, etc), and cause significant 40 man issues.  This is a build for the long-haul, and even though I might want to 'go all in' in a year like this one, I don't see the pitcher out there this year (or this winter) that might be anything more than a reasonable replacement for a cheaper internal option.  And, as far as the playoffs go, we have seen some very good pitchers get shelled in the past few years of juiced baseballs - this year may be the worst yet.

[Crackedfungo]

 

Rosario was great the 1st half of 2018. Since then he has produced .9 Fwar. Zero for the 2nd half of last year and .9 to date this year. He is 10th among our position players in fWAR this season. I would sure hope one of our OF prospects could produce better than what we have seen in Rosario since the 1st half of last year. I also would not expect much in a trade.

Hope is not a strategy, and given the struggles in moving up levels for all of our OF prospects, there is almost 0% chance that comparable performance will occur before year 3 - this is BY FAR the biggest jump, and pitchers will challenge them and adjust to what they do best.  (And don't bring up Arraez, he has not really struggled to hit at any level or adjust - he seems unique).  

 

Additionally, it would be unwise to ignore clubhouse impact - I don't think you want to disrupt any of the core of; Rosario, Kepler, Buxton, Sano, or Berrios until they prove that they cannot win together.  They are all close, and have won in the minors together.  It reminds me of the Hrbek, Bruno, Gaetti, Viola, Puckett years.  Let them prove they cannot do it in their peak years, prior to breaking them up.  I would add to the core, not subtract from it.  It reminds me of the outburst for the mere cutting of Morin - the team does not want their mojo interrupted by Front Office decisions.  

[Mike Sixel]

I doubt three are brought back. That just seems unlikely. I'm all for one spot being planned for younger players.

 

Perez has been awful, since his hot start, returning to the guy he was in the past. Why would you be in him being good next year, given his history?

 

I agree the FA list looks bad, which is why I hated passing on Keuchel. Which is also why I think they'll have to make a trade, or have a pretty mediocre group of starters next year.

[Major League Ready]

 

I doubt three are brought back. That just seems unlikely. I'm all for one spot being planned for younger players.

Perez has been awful, since his hot start, returning to the guy he was in the past. Why would you be in him being good next year, given his history?

I agree the FA list looks bad, which is why I hated passing on Keuchel. Which is also why I think they'll have to make a trade, or have a pretty mediocre group of starters next year.

 

Kuechel only signed for this year, right. He is a free agent next season. Bumgarner / and Wheeler are FAs. I was hoping we would see Tehran this series as he is a FA at the end of the year.

Gerrit Cole and Alex Wood would both be great acquisitions. I don’t think Houston can afford any more big contracts but I have read Cole want to play on the west coast. Not sure how hard it would be to pry Cole from Cincinnati.

 

That’s quite a few good options. This is the year they need to pony up and land a top FA Starter. That addition to Berrios and at least one of our current starters plus whatever prospect steps up should make a better staff than this year. We could also sign Archer hoping for him to bounce back.

 

I hope you get your wish this year and we land a top FA starter. The FAs should be more receptive than past years given the state of the team and we will be in the financial position to get it done. 

[yarnivek1972]

I would re-sign two of them, and pick up the option on Perez. Then, I would bring up the best of the 7-8 that are knocking on the door and stick with the one whom adapts the best.

 

 

The only reason Perez is still in the rotation is because Pineada is on IL. He’s given up 4 or more runs in 8 of his last 11 starts. That’s not good.

 

 

Who are these 7-8 knocking on the door? No, really, I’d like to know. Are you counting the guys on the AAA shuttle (Smeltzer, Thorpe, Littell, etc)? They are already in the door. Also, succeeding as a mop up reliever is very different from success as a starter.

 

 

Right now, though ERA is NOT the end all for pitchers, our starting pitchers are 7, 23, 38, 44, and 59 in ERA. That is among 30 Teams of 5 starters each. For a comparative, Keuchel (would be 30th if he qualified), Syndergaard is 35, Darvish is 49, Arrieta is 53, Wheeler is 54, and Sale is 62. At one time or another, many on this board have salivated over these pitchers, many of which cost over $20MM/year. Many also want to trade significant assets for them (Rosario, Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, etc...). My question is why!?!? IF you can sign two of Gibson/Pineda/Odo and pick up the option on Perez, why would you bother investing proven MLB players or top MiLB prospects for these high-cost and high-mileage pitchers with these types of results!?! If you say it is just a 'down year' for this group, I ask you whether you would feel good trading a premium asset for a declining asset that is also going to cost you close to Mauer money (Darvish, or Sale)? Not me.

 

 

As you say, there are 5 starting pitchers on every team. As of August 6, only one of the current members of the rotation is sure to be back next year. Just resign two of them? What if they don’t want to? Even with resigning two, the Twins still need two more. One might go to Smeltzer or someone else. But if Perez is back I think it would be a big mistake. The Twins also need 8 relievers. Rogers is really still the only sure thing next year. MAYBE May, Duffey and Harper stick. Maybe Littell joins them. Still need 3 more. At least two of them should be really good ones. We saw in June and July what can happen when a team is counting on unproven relievers to take key roles.

 

There’s only one left fielder per team. I feel confident that Rooker won’t be a big enough drop off from Rosario as to substantially impact an offense that leads all of MLB in HR and is second in runs scored by .06 runs per game. The only position players not under control for 2020 are Schoop and Castro. As I mentioned previously, Marwin and others provide the safety net for Rooker.

 

I don’t happen to believe Rosario is a premium asset. He’s a slightly better than average hitter and a bad defender. I’m also not suggesting using him to acquire an aging veteran starting pitcher. Because he isn’t going to bring that return. Might get a reliever. Should get at least a very close to MLB ready prospect that shows promise. As I said previously, someone who would be a step up from Smeltzer, who the Twins got for two months of Dozier. Rosario still has two more YEARS of control.

 

 

You could lock up two of our three FA pitchers, whom are paid $5MM, $8.1MM, and $9MM respectively, for a great deal less than any of the above, say $12MM-$15MM, and you would be in better shape than all but a few teams (and you would not have to sacrifice an asset). That is assuming they maintain performance, but you have the same concern with these older high-mileage options, as well. Moreover, when are we going to open 1-2 spots for a young pitcher that is controllable, talented and cheap (from among Smeltzer, Graterol, Duran, Balazovic, etc), and might be the next Cole, Syndergaard, or Sale? Waiting too long can cause the prospects to go stale in AAA (see Stewart, Gonsalves, all the relievers like JT Chargois, Reed, Burdi, etc), and cause significant 40 man issues. This is a build for the long-haul, and even though I might want to 'go all in' in a year like this one, I don't see the pitcher out there this year (or this winter) that might be anything more than a reasonable replacement for a cheaper internal option. And, as far as the playoffs go, we have seen some very good pitchers get shelled in the past few years of juiced baseballs - this year may be the worst yet.

 

Smeltzer is already in the rotation, so I’ll ignore him. Balazovic is still in A ball. He’s at least 1 1/2 years away. Graterol probably needs at least half a year in AAA. Duran at least two years away. Meaning none of them should be considered anything more than plan C or D for a team that hopes to contend next year.

 

 

The prospects you named didn’t go stale. They got figured out and/or hurt.

 

Yes, build for the long haul. Like it or not, in Twins territory that means making roster decisions with money as an important factor. Rosario might get upwards of $ 9 mil in arb next year. That’s $ 9 mil that won’t be spent on pitching.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Kuechel only signed for this year, right. He is a free agent next season. Bumgarner / and Wheeler are FAs. I was hoping we would see Tehran this series as he is a FA at the end of the year.

Gerrit Cole and Alex Wood would both be great acquisitions. I don’t think Houston can afford any more big contracts but I have read Cole want to play on the west coast. Not sure how hard it would be to pry Cole from Cincinnati.

 

That’s quite a few good options. This is the year they need to pony up and land a top FA Starter. That addition to Berrios and at least one of our current starters plus whatever prospect steps up should make a better staff than this year. We could also sign Archer hoping for him to bounce back.

 

I hope you get your wish this year and we land a top FA starter. The FAs should be more receptive than past years given the state of the team and we will be in the financial position to get it done. 

 

Ah, I thought Keuchel signed a 2 year deal, but you are correct.....I guess that doesn't really help next year.....

[Mr. Brooks]

The only reason Perez is still in the rotation is because Pineada is on IL. He’s given up 4 or more runs in 8 of his last 11 starts. That’s not good.

 

 

Who are these 7-8 knocking on the door? No, really, I’d like to know. Are you counting the guys on the AAA shuttle (Smeltzer, Thorpe, Littell, etc)? They are already in the door. Also, succeeding as a mop up reliever is very different from success as a starter.

 

 

 

 

As you say, there are 5 starting pitchers on every team. As of August 6, only one of the current members of the rotation is sure to be back next year. Just resign two of them? What if they don’t want to? Even with resigning two, the Twins still need two more. One might go to Smeltzer or someone else. But if Perez is back I think it would be a big mistake. The Twins also need 8 relievers. Rogers is really still the only sure thing next year. MAYBE May, Duffey and Harper stick. Maybe Littell joins them. Still need 3 more. At least two of them should be really good ones. We saw in June and July what can happen when a team is counting on unproven relievers to take key roles.

 

There’s only one left fielder per team. I feel confident that Rooker won’t be a big enough drop off from Rosario as to substantially impact an offense that leads all of MLB in HR and is second in runs scored by .06 runs per game. The only position players not under control for 2020 are Schoop and Castro. As I mentioned previously, Marwin and others provide the safety net for Rooker.

 

I don’t happen to believe Rosario is a premium asset. He’s a slightly better than average hitter and a bad defender. I’m also not suggesting using him to acquire an aging veteran starting pitcher. Because he isn’t going to bring that return. Might get a reliever. Should get at least a very close to MLB ready prospect that shows promise. As I said previously, someone who would be a step up from Smeltzer, who the Twins got for two months of Dozier. Rosario still has two more YEARS of control.

 

 

 

Smeltzer is already in the rotation, so I’ll ignore him. Balazovic is still in A ball. He’s at least 1 1/2 years away. Graterol probably needs at least half a year in AAA. Duran at least two years away. Meaning none of them should be considered anything more than plan C or D for a team that hopes to contend next year.

 

 

The prospects you named didn’t go stale. They got figured out and/or hurt.

 

Yes, build for the long haul. Like it or not, in Twins territory that means making roster decisions with money as an important factor. Rosario might get upwards of $ 9 mil in arb next year. That’s $ 9 mil that won’t be spent on pitching.

Why is Duran at least two years away? He's in AA right now.

He should start next year at AAA.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Why is Duran at least two years away? He's in AA right now.
He should start next year at AAA.

 

Agreed, but he shouldn't be one you count on to start next year at the beginning of the year. I'd say Smeltzer and, um, who else in the minors? That's really the point, imo.

 

And no, I don't think Rosario returns a MLB starting pitcher....but he can part of a package to get a good/great prospect or two. That 9-12MM combined with other money will help with the pitching.

[twins1095]

Agreed, but he shouldn't be one you count on to start next year at the beginning of the year. I'd say Smeltzer and, um, who else in the minors? That's really the point, imo.

 

And no, I don't think Rosario returns a MLB starting pitcher....but he can part of a package to get a good/great prospect or two. That 9-12MM combined with other money will help with the pitching.

Rosario + prospects can definitely be part of a package to get a good SP.

 

You don’t think Rosario + say Gordon/SP prospect could get a good SP?

[yarnivek1972]

Why is Duran at least two years away? He's in AA right now.

He should start next year at AAA.

Where he has an ERA over 4. At A ball his ERA was barely better than league average. He’s not going to move up until that improves substantially. He more than likely starts 2020 in AA. Frankly, I think he’s being pushed too fast. He should still be in A ball IMO.

[Mr. Brooks]

Where he has an ERA over 4. At A ball his ERA was barely better than league average. He’s not going to move up until that improves substantially. He more than likely starts 2020 in AA. Frankly, I think he’s being pushed too fast. He should still be in A ball IMO.

I really hope the FO isn't even looking at ERA for minor leaguers, let alone in 11 inning sample sizes.

Duran earned his promotion, and I suspect he'll do well at AA as well.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Rosario + prospects can definitely be part of a package to get a good SP.

You don’t think Rosario + say Gordon/SP prospect could get a good SP?

 

Hard to say. Rosario has, what, 2 years of arbitration left after this year? He'd have to go to a good team, needing an OF, and having a SP available. Is there even such a team? 

[twins1095]

 

Hard to say. Rosario has, what, 2 years of arbitration left after this year? He'd have to go to a good team, needing an OF, and having a SP available. Is there even such a team? 

 

I think he could also slot in for just about any MLB team needing a DH.  He likely would need to go to a good team though.  

 

The immediate team that comes to mind that doesn't fit with the DH idea is the Mets who are looking for MLB ready players.  

 

Things in the MLB change fast though.  Case in point Twins/Braves last year and this year.  There will be a fit.

[yarnivek1972]

I really hope the FO isn't even looking at ERA for minor leaguers, let alone in 11 inning sample sizes.

Duran earned his promotion, and I suspect he'll do well at AA as well.

As you say, he only has 11 IP at AA. He will probably make 4-5 more starts for 20-30 more IP. I certainly hope the Twins FO doesn’t deem him ready for AAA based on that SSS.

[Crackedfungo]

 

The only reason Perez is still in the rotation is because Pineada is on IL. He’s given up 4 or more runs in 8 of his last 11 starts. That’s not good.


Who are these 7-8 knocking on the door? No, really, I’d like to know. Are you counting the guys on the AAA shuttle (Smeltzer, Thorpe, Littell, etc)? They are already in the door. Also, succeeding as a mop up reliever is very different from success as a starter.
 

 

As you say, there are 5 starting pitchers on every team. As of August 6, only one of the current members of the rotation is sure to be back next year. Just resign two of them? What if they don’t want to? Even with resigning two, the Twins still need two more. One might go to Smeltzer or someone else. But if Perez is back I think it would be a big mistake. The Twins also need 8 relievers. Rogers is really still the only sure thing next year. MAYBE May, Duffey and Harper stick. Maybe Littell joins them. Still need 3 more. At least two of them should be really good ones. We saw in June and July what can happen when a team is counting on unproven relievers to take key roles.

There’s only one left fielder per team. I feel confident that Rooker won’t be a big enough drop off from Rosario as to substantially impact an offense that leads all of MLB in HR and is second in runs scored by .06 runs per game. The only position players not under control for 2020 are Schoop and Castro. As I mentioned previously, Marwin and others provide the safety net for Rooker.

I don’t happen to believe Rosario is a premium asset. He’s a slightly better than average hitter and a bad defender. I’m also not suggesting using him to acquire an aging veteran starting pitcher. Because he isn’t going to bring that return. Might get a reliever. Should get at least a very close to MLB ready prospect that shows promise. As I said previously, someone who would be a step up from Smeltzer, who the Twins got for two months of Dozier. Rosario still has two more YEARS of control.

 

Smeltzer is already in the rotation, so I’ll ignore him. Balazovic is still in A ball. He’s at least 1 1/2 years away. Graterol probably needs at least half a year in AAA. Duran at least two years away. Meaning none of them should be considered anything more than plan C or D for a team that hopes to contend next year.


The prospects you named didn’t go stale. They got figured out and/or hurt.

Yes, build for the long haul. Like it or not, in Twins territory that means making roster decisions with money as an important factor. Rosario might get upwards of $ 9 mil in arb next year. That’s $ 9 mil that won’t be spent on pitching.

 

I'll just note the following, we can agree to disagree:

 

1)  Berrios, then sign two of Gibson/Odo/Pineda. If they 'don't want to sign,' focus on another of the three or pay a comparable pitcher as a FA - $12-$15MM.  (I don't see a huge market for any of the three, and perhaps they will stay with the right contract - we have the money with Castro coming off payroll).  Perez has an option.  If he continues to pitch like crap for the balance of this year or early next year, find an alternative that is a 'prove it' candidate, or if warranted by more than one of those from 2 below, bring another up. (BTW:  You never referenced the rankings of all the 'must have' pitchers - they don't look like 'sure things' either - where do you suggest finding one premier SP or 'up and comer' that is a near certainty, and at what level of 'over payment' in prospects and dollars?  What do you think it would take, and what would you be willing to give up for Darvish, Arrieta, Sale, Stroman, or Keuchel type numbers?

 

2)  No.  None of the 7-8 I had referred to are actually 'in the door' until they are off the shuttle when their innings are exhausted and starting without a quick trip back to the minors.  I would let Thorpe and Smeltzer prove they can/cannot handle the 5th starter spot for first two months, then bring up Graterol (assuming health - no point in letting him languish in the minors or letting him be jerked around like Romero until his value plummets).  Colina, Duran or Balazovic may be ready by later in the year - maybe not.  But, there is little need for every pitcher to make a pit stop in AAA - the best just don't need it.  Not sure where ours will fall, but Colina seems to be handling AA just fine with 60+ innings.

 

2)  Rooker will likely strike out more than Sano in first few years of MLB, and is no 'gem' in the OF - less capable to hit .280, slower, less arm.  I simply don't agree.  Nor do I think Marwin is any form of insurance for Rooker or reasonable replacement for Rosario (on the field or in the clubhouse).  He is also needed in too many other positions versus LF.  Neither AK nor Larnach will be ready yet either to replace Rosario...Don't they need the proverbial AAA stop as with pitchers?  Surely, they are 1.5-2.0 years away given their AA experience and performance.

 

3)  So, jury already out on Dyson?  I wasn't impressed with SSS, but hunting for two more reasonably capable relievers can come from a better than Addison Reed FA signing, or a lower cost trade; a couple of players ranked 10-20.  Did you see how many of the 'top tier' relievers or 'second tier' were washouts or unmitigated disasters this year?  I would not trade a borderline All Star everyday player for one RP, unless a Pressley type (and that won't likely happen - it will require an overpay to get a Pressley).  Many relievers that fare well are 'found' as failed starters, or buried under aged tinder on other teams (our analytics group and Falvey are supposedly great at finding these types - they need to prove it)  

 

4)  I disagree on stale.  Romero has become stale, as were many of our relievers from the past that were constantly trapped by cast-offs and cheap signings:  (Morin, Drake, Duke, Abad, Boshers, Fien, Belisle, Breslow, Melville, etal).  It is past time to see what these younger assets have to offer; whether they are Littel, Romero, Eaves, Poppen, Gonsalves, or Stewart.  I would also move Romero back to SP, as the RP experiment isn't yielding any dividends.  I wouldn't rule out a Hackimer possibility either late next year.  He has better stuff than Hildenberger did.   

 

In short, as illustrated for this year by their ranking in my original post (go back to Arrieta, Darvish, Keuchel, Sale - all 30-60), buying a high-priced and high-mileage SP provides no assurances whatsoever, and they only pitch every 5th day.  RP is kind of a mixed bag of unattainable performers that are cost prohibitive, or a 'converted' pitcher that is 'found' by the developing or acquiring club.  An everyday player high-value asset traded (plus a high prospect) with no realistic back-up(s) of comparable ability is not a sound strategy.  We can dispute 'high value asset,' but I put more stock in Rosario's performance and league-wide rankings than the opinion of any poster on TD.  FWIW

 

 

[Mr. Brooks]

As you say, he only has 11 IP at AA. He will probably make 4-5 more starts for 20-30 more IP. I certainly hope the Twins FO doesn’t deem him ready for AAA based on that SSS.

Ok, but even if he moves up to AAA after the draft, that still doesn't fit the timeline of "at least two years away".

 

I mean, it very well could take two years, because injuries and setbacks can occur, but he also could be ready by this time next year.