Front Page: 2019 MLB Trade Deadline Review

[Riverbrian]

 

I would have traded the farm for Noah Syndergaard with two more seasons on the books. I would have done it four years ago. I would have done that three years ago. I would have done it last year, and I would have done it today.

 

Not two years ago tho... This way you avoid a clear recognizable pattern. 

[Splash45]

I loved how the Dbacks got that Marlin kid who shut us down last night. It might have been a John Ryan Murphy move but I thought he'd be a good get. But i didn't think the Marlins wouldn't be trading away a promising young starter. I guess it wouldn't have hurt to ask we probably could have got him for Gordon based on the return.

 

I doubt Gordon would have been enough. The kid they got is a top 100 prospect by some rankings and has huge potential. Gordon will probably be a good player but doesn’t have nearly as much upside

[Brandon]

What were the solid deadline deals Ryan made? Stewart- anyone else?

 

Getting Pavano, Cabrera, Rauch, Fuentes, even Capps was Bill Smith.

 

Ryan would more likely ship off major league players like Lawton and Redman and not improve the team at all.

A Terry Ryan move, he traded Matt Lawton for Rick Reed a number 3/4 starter.

 

Another was for Shannon Stewart

 

Another was for Castillo at 2B

 

Really I thought of these trades the Lawton trade didn't fully go as planned cause they didn't get the second trade pulled off as planned. But the other two were prospects for lesser names that really helped the team.

[big dog]

I like the Twins' two pickups.  I'll tell you how much I like them in a couple of months.

 

OK, let's settle the betting pool- who had "Yankees zero acquisitions"?  No one??? that's what I thought.

[jdoffing11]

 

The Yankees will probably get a #1 starter by about Sept 15th in Severino. The Twins don't have anyone like that lurking around about to do a rehab assignment.

The Yankees FO would be incredibly stupid to bank on Severino coming back off of a shoulder injury with setbacks and immediately pitching at a #1 starter level. The guy also has a career postseason ERA of 6.26. Meanwhile, they don't have any starter with an ERA or FIP under 4, and have gotten absolutely smacked around by the MLBs two best offenses in the past week. Even German, who was having a breakout year, has come crashing back down to Earth, with an ERA at 4.40 or higher every month since April.

[Riverbrian]

Brodie Van Wagenen and Farhan Zaidi are going to be fly's in the traditional front office ointment. 

 

Unless they are going to submit a QO to Wheeler. I'm not sure why he is still on the roster. Frazier? Surely someone offered something and something is better than nothing.

 

The Giants simultaneously moved a chunk of the bullpen while acquiring a pretty good rental with Scooter, keeping the expiring contracts of Bumgarner and Smith during a time they are in contention, old and light on the farm.  

 

 

[jdoffing11]

 

Brodie Van Wagenen and Farhan Zaidi are going to be fly's in the traditional front office ointment. 

 

Unless they are going to submit a QO to Wheeler. I'm not sure why he is still on the roster. Frazier? Surely someone offered something and something is better than nothing.

 

The Giants simultaneously moved a chunk of the bullpen while acquiring a pretty good rental with Scooter, keeping the expiring contracts of Bumgarner and Smith during a time they are in contention, old and light on the farm.  

What can I say, Mets are gonna Mets. Brodie got himself so deep into this mess by making the Cano/Diaz trade and sending the message out of competing with this roster that he can't go back. I have read that they may resign Wheeler though, which makes for a pretty nice rotation. 

 

For the Giants, I'm taking a guess here but I believe the FO may have been instructed by ownership not to move the majors pieces of Bumgarner and Smith unless completely overwhelmed to give Bochy a shot at a wild card run in his last year, but let them trade more minor guys like Dyson (who imo shoudn't be considered minor), Melancon, Pomeranz etc. And if they give them the QO in the offseason, even if they walk they'll still get the draft pick compensation which would be in the ballpark of what they would've gotten at the deadline. They did amazing giving away Pomeranz and Black, and getting Dubon in return from the Brewers, who have an very weak farm system to begin with.  

[Florida Loggerman]

Just saying: Twins needed a top quality starter, to combine with Berrios? what did the FO do?? Zero??>   Secondly, the Twins starting pitchers can not compete with the Astro's durng a plalyoff matchup, the Twins do nothing, and the Astro's go all in and pick up Zach Greinke<  Astor's big Winner! Twins    yup did nothing at all Again.  we will all see, if the Twins luck out and make the playoff's they will have to more than likely have to go through the dreaded Yankmee's, or worse, the Astor's and I"m not a betting person, yet, the Astro's on paper look insanely powerful.  some things simply do not change, and spending money in Minnesota is not one of them when you discuss pro baseball in Minny   it's like a one on one race on a short track, the Twins own a Corvette, and the Astor's have a Maseratti  which vehicle win's, 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I felt the deadline overall was good for fans around MLB in general. The trend seemed to be for more teams to sell their seasons short, but that didn’t happen this year.

 

The Twins got some needed bullpen help, but it still feels like they could have done more. I argued for a long time they should trade Nick Gordon for pitching. I’ve been arguing they should trade one of Larnach/Kirilloff/Rooker. I don’t know what they have planned for those three guys together.

[Cooper Carlson]

 

Just saying: Twins needed a top quality starter, to combine with Berrios? what did the FO do?? Zero??>   Secondly, the Twins starting pitchers can not compete with the Astro's durng a plalyoff matchup, the Twins do nothing, and the Astro's go all in and pick up Zach Greinke<  Astor's big Winner! Twins    yup did nothing at all Again.  we will all see, if the Twins luck out and make the playoff's they will have to more than likely have to go through the dreaded Yankmee's, or worse, the Astor's and I"m not a betting person, yet, the Astro's on paper look insanely powerful.  some things simply do not change, and spending money in Minnesota is not one of them when you discuss pro baseball in Minny   it's like a one on one race on a short track, the Twins own a Corvette, and the Astor's have a Maseratti  which vehicle win's, 

 

1.) The Twins added an elite reliever with Dyson and another solid reliever in Romo.
2.) Zack Greinke had the Twins on his no trade clause so he was not coming here
3.) The Twins could have added someone like Minor or Ray but the prices are astronomical (thats why nobody got them) and they don’t improve the Twins rotation much.
4.) Saying the Twins will be lucky to make the playoffs seems odd with a three game lead in the division and an easy schedule the rest of the way.
5.) October is weird and you never know what will happen. (Scherzer-Price-Verlander for Detroit were swept a few years ago.)
6.) Trades aren’t based on money…

[Cooper Carlson]

 

I felt the deadline overall was good for fans around MLB in general. The trend seemed to be for more teams to sell their seasons short, but that didn’t happen this year.

The Twins got some needed bullpen help, but it still feels like they could have done more. I argued for a long time they should trade Nick Gordon for pitching. I’ve been arguing they should trade one of Larnach/Kirilloff/Rooker. I don’t know what they have planned for those three guys together.

They won't be held onto forever. Stay tuned for this upcoming offseason, there will be at least one move made for a top end starting pitcher involving some of the guys you mentioned above. It's likely the prices were too high or the starters weren't a big enough of an upgrade on the rotation now.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

1.) The Twins added an elite reliever with Dyson and another solid reliever in Romo.

Not quite how you described them in the original write-up

[Cooper Carlson]

 

Not quite how you described them in the original write-up

I described them as two back end relievers. That can mean many things. If I was doing an actual analysis of the moves I would have gone more in depth but that was just a league recap.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

They won't be held onto forever. Stay tuned for this upcoming offseason, there will be at least one move made for a top end starting pitcher involving some of the guys you mentioned above. It's likely the prices were too high or the starters weren't a big enough of an upgrade on the rotation now.

I’m not holding my breath.

 

It feels to me like they are afraid of a trade failing, or that the player they trade away will play well somewhere else. News flash: all of Larnach, Kirilloff and Rooker will make the majors, and probably hit well too. However, not all of them will hold down a Twins corner outfield starting job at the same time.

 

Maybe the long game is that hoarding prospects is the way to win, even if some of them are left too long on the vine. But we’ve seen teams win by trading prospects, too.

[Cooper Carlson]

 

I’m not holding my breath.

It feels to me like they are afraid of a trade failing, or that the player they trade away will play well somewhere else. News flash: all of Larnach, Kirilloff and Rooker will make the majors, and probably hit well too. However, not all of them will hold down a Twins corner outfield starting job at the same time.

Maybe the long game is that hoarding prospects is the way to win, even if some of them are left too long on the vine. But we’ve seen teams win by trading prospects, too.

I agree there is definitely a time to trade prospects and this would have been a good season but I don't think it is worth giving up the farm. Kirilloff is the future first baseman in my opinion. Larnach couldn't net us an elite pitcher like Thor so it's not worth giving him up for a slightly above average starter. I'm actually surprised Rooker wasn't more widely sought after, unless he was an I just have no idea.

[jdoffing11]

I personally don't view the Reds as losers. I think they're big winners. Trammell was their top prospect and still has the tools to be great, but he was underperforming at AA. Pitchers like Bauer aren't out on the trade block everyday, and their direction is clear, playing to win in 2020. Sure they are 9 games under .500 but the Pythagorean W/L is 55-50, which suggests some bad luck. They're looking at a rotation of:

 

Luis Castillo, a 26 year old who has to be the best least-talked about pitcher in baseball and even with Bauer is their ace

 

Trevor Bauer

 

Sonny Gray who was an all star and is having a great bounce back year in a hitter's park

 

Anthony DeSclafani a solid back end starter who owns a 4.01 ERA this year

 

The last spot could be filled by Alex Wood, who recently made his season debut coming off injury but is a FA after the year, a FA or trade acquisition or Tyler Mahle, a 24 year old who has pitched to a 4.93 ERA in 19 starts this season but has a 4.32 FIP. 

 

Sounds pretty good to me. Right up there with the Dodgers for best rotation, assuming the Astros can't keep Cole, which will be hard to do with Greinke's salary. The lineup has been pretty average this year, but with a couple smart FA signings and breakout years from guys like Senzel could be above average. Same goes for the bullpen, Iglesias is having a down year but they have some nice arms at the top, and a couple moves wouldn't hurt. To me, they put themselves in a great position for next year, in a division that no one has been able to run away with this year. 

 

And also they traded Tanner Roark, a back end of the rotation 2 month rental for the A's number 8 prospect who comes in at number 10 in their organization according to MLB.com. Not too bad.

[drivlikejehu]

 

I’m not holding my breath.

It feels to me like they are afraid of a trade failing, or that the player they trade away will play well somewhere else. News flash: all of Larnach, Kirilloff and Rooker will make the majors, and probably hit well too. However, not all of them will hold down a Twins corner outfield starting job at the same time.

Maybe the long game is that hoarding prospects is the way to win, even if some of them are left too long on the vine. But we’ve seen teams win by trading prospects, too.

 

The fact is that a wide range of teams - including teams that have zero questions around their competency (e.g., the Yankees), chose not to sacrifice the farm this year. And that's been a general trend for a number of years now. 

 

There have also been trades where a team appeared to have given up huge prospect value at the time, but that in hindsight reflected a lack of public understanding about the quality/health/etc. of those prospects. 

 

The true frequency of massive prospect-for-star deals is very, very low. And this deadline we saw situations where clubs apparently asked for top prospects in exchange for 2nd tier players.

 

Many posters here don't want to accept the reality that not much was actually out there. But the reality is apparent, because the deadline is in the past, and guys like Syndergaard, Ray, Bumgarner, etc., didn't get traded.

[Monkeypaws]

The Astros look great on paper. So do the Yankees. Yet I've seen the Twins knock Severino out of a playoff game. I've seen them beat Verlander. Cleveland? Fuggetaboutit. 

 

They play the games for a reason, and the best team on paper only wins some of the time.Perhaps the Twins have a post-season beast waiting to be unleashed we don't know about yet.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There have also been trades where a team appeared to have given up huge prospect value at the time, but that in hindsight reflected a lack of public understanding about the quality/health/etc. of those prospects.

I agree with this, and part of it must be because the published prospect values we see on sites like Fangraphs are sometimes very different from the values teams keep internally.

[Wizard11]

1.) The Twins added an elite reliever with Dyson and another solid reliever in Romo.

2.) Zack Greinke had the Twins on his no trade clause so he was not coming here

3.) The Twins could have added someone like Minor or Ray but the prices are astronomical (thats why nobody got them) and they don’t improve the Twins rotation much.

4.) Saying the Twins will be lucky to make the playoffs seems odd with a three game lead in the division and an easy schedule the rest of the way.

5.) October is weird and you never know what will happen. (Scherzer-Price-Verlander for Detroit were swept a few years ago.)

6.) Trades aren’t based on money…

And the Corvette beats the Maserati on any track...every time

[jdoffing11]

 

The Twins got some needed bullpen help, but it still feels like they could have done more. I argued for a long time they should trade Nick Gordon for pitching. I’ve been arguing they should trade one of Larnach/Kirilloff/Rooker. I don’t know what they have planned for those three guys together.

With great depth at those positions, trading these guys for pitching seems ideal, but at the end of the day there just weren't that many guys out there, from a starter perspective. Syndergaard wasn't there without Buxton or MLB talent, Giants were no longer looking to sell on Bumgarner,  we were on Greinke's no trade list, and the Blue Jays never got back to us on Stroman. Then you get in the next tier of guys which are nice to have, but you question how much better they actually make the team, that being Mike Minor, Robbie Ray and Zack Wheeler. With Wheeler, the Mets actually want to bring him back as they try to contend next year, and its the Mets, so its unlikely a fair deal could've gotten done there. Robbie Ray is the most intriguing but the Diamondbacks apparantley asked the Yankees for Clint Frazier, a former top 50 prospect who has succeeded in the MLB but is stuck in AAA because of the Yankees logjam in the outfield and RHP Clarke Schmidt. For the Twins that would be like Larnach and Balazovic, which is way too much for a guy who with high walk and home run rates may not make it out of the 4th inning in the playoffs. And I haven't seen how much the price on Minor was, but he's been dreadful in July so I don't know how much better we get there. Anyways, at least we still have those pieces in Gordon, Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker that are there for a fair offseason trade.

[Mr. Brooks]

Just saying: Twins needed a top quality starter, to combine with Berrios? what did the FO do?? Zero??> Secondly, the Twins starting pitchers can not compete with the Astro's durng a plalyoff matchup, the Twins do nothing, and the Astro's go all in and pick up Zach Greinke< Astor's big Winner! Twins yup did nothing at all Again. we will all see, if the Twins luck out and make the playoff's they will have to more than likely have to go through the dreaded Yankmee's, or worse, the Astor's and I"m not a betting person, yet, the Astro's on paper look insanely powerful. some things simply do not change, and spending money in Minnesota is not one of them when you discuss pro baseball in Minny it's like a one on one race on a short track, the Twins own a Corvette, and the Astor's have a Maserattiwhich vehicle win's,

I could really go for a maserattiwhich right now.

Edited August 1, 2019 by Mr. Brooks

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

With great depth at those positions, trading these guys for pitching seems ideal, but at the end of the day there just weren't that many guys out there, from a starter perspective. Syndergaard wasn't there without Buxton or MLB talent, Giants were no longer looking to sell on Bumgarner,  we were on Greinke's no trade list, and the Blue Jays never got back to us on Stroman. Then you get in the next tier of guys which are nice to have, but you question how much better they actually make the team, that being Mike Minor, Robbie Ray and Zack Wheeler. With Wheeler, the Mets actually want to bring him back as they try to contend next year, and its the Mets, so its unlikely a fair deal could've gotten done there. Robbie Ray is the most intriguing but the Diamondbacks apparantley asked the Yankees for Clint Frazier, a former top 50 prospect who has succeeded in the MLB but is stuck in AAA because of the Yankees logjam in the outfield and RHP Clarke Schmidt. For the Twins that would be like Larnach and Balazovic, which is way too much for a guy who with high walk and home run rates may not make it out of the 4th inning in the playoffs. And I haven't seen how much the price on Minor was, but he's been dreadful in July so I don't know how much better we get there. Anyways, at least we still have those pieces in Gordon, Kirilloff, Larnach and Rooker that are there for a fair offseason trade.

If GMs cannot agree on what “fair” means here at the deadline, they are not likely to agree in the offseason either.

[Squirrel]

They won't be held onto forever. Stay tuned for this upcoming offseason, there will be at least one move made for a top end starting pitcher involving some of the guys you mentioned above. It's likely the prices were too high or the starters weren't a big enough of an upgrade on the rotation now.

I’m holding you to that!

[jkcarew]

 

I know this is going to sound crazy, but the Reds attendance is up 3000 per game this year, after their offseason of additions. Maybe they want to keep those fans around? It's possible....no idea.

Run differential would also suggest they're better than their current record reflects....maybe significantly so.

[Mike Sixel]

This deadline should be a warning, imo, that drafting only hitters high so you can trade for pitching later, might not be viable. If no good pitchers are available, or have Minnesota on their no trade.

 

Please note the word might is in there....

[jdoffing11]

 

If GMs cannot agree on what “fair” means here at the deadline, they are not likely to agree in the offseason either.

At that point teams are in different situations, some of the teams in the WC races will have had an awful final two months and may be looking to deal.  Wouldn't just be going after the same couple guys. And if the Blue Jays had come back to the Twins with that price on Stroman I think they might've taken it.

[yarnivek1972]

This deadline should be a warning, imo, that drafting only hitters high so you can trade for pitching later, might not be viable. If no good pitchers are available, or have Minnesota on their no trade.

 

Please note the word might is in there....

Andy MacPhail’s philosophy was develop pitchers and pay for hitters. Ironically, they had much better luck developing hitters during his watch. Banks and Mahomes basically flopped. Rich Garces’ weight became his biggest obstacle. Neagle did alright, but of course he was used in the Smiley trade. Radke was the big success of MacPhail’s pitching drafts.

 

Knoblauch, Leius, Cordova and even Chip Hale and Denny Hocking all were MacPhail draftees.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Andy MacPhail’s philosophy was develop pitchers and pay for hitters. Ironically, they had much better luck developing hitters during his watch. Banks and Mahomes basically flopped. Rich Garces’ weight became his biggest obstacle. Neagle did alright, but of course he was used in the Smiley trade. Radke was the big success of MacPhail’s pitching drafts.

 

Knoblauch, Leius, Cordova and even Chip Hale and Denny Hocking all were MacPhail draftees.

Not sure if that is an accurate summary of MacPhail's philosophy. We paid for Blyleven, Reardon, Morris, Smiley -- even Tapani and Aguilera, in a way. On the hitter side, we bought Chili Davis, then Dave Winfield at the end...

 

Although it is interesting to remember that even Torii Hunter was drafted under MacPhail!

[yarnivek1972]

Not sure if that is an accurate summary of MacPhail's philosophy. We paid for Blyleven, Reardon, Morris, Smiley -- even Tapani and Aguilera, in a way. On the hitter side, we bought Chili Davis, then Dave Winfield at the end...

 

Although it is interesting to remember that even Torii Hunter was drafted under MacPhail!

I remember an interview with him stating it was his philosophy. It didn’t work out that well though.