Front Page: Trade Deadline Thread: How Do the Twins Respond to the Trevor Bauer Trade?

[Thebigalguy]

"No reason to get excited / The thief he kindly spoke." Minnesota's Bob Dylan, a great baseball rube, put it best. For the Twins in the playoffs, it's what you see is what you get. I have to tip my new pink fight-breast-cancer hat to the Indians, who clearly put themselves in a place where a three-game lead is tenuous for the Twins. The head-to-head matchups between the two teams will probably decide who wins the division unless the Twins mop up on bad teams while the Indians come down to earth against the better teams in the league. I don't mind the team trading second-tier prospects before 3pm today for better relief pitching, but the Pressly trade last year is the one that still haunts the team and might be their Waterloo this year when he whiffs somebody with the bases loaded and the series-winning game on the line. That was dumb and made me think Falvine was doing somebody down in Houston a favor. The team we have is the one we have (40 man roster, not the 25 currently in The Bigs) and the pitchers, starting and otherwise, have to regain their best form if we hope to beat the Yankees (can't win giving up 14 runs) and compete with the Astros,

[big dog]

Adding Puig makes the Indians better, except on days when it makes them worse.  Let's hope for a lot of the latter days.

[highlander]

Always in moderation-

I'll take the under.

My wish is Vasquez, but really will be a mid tier set up arm.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think the Twins go after Giles. The price will probably be lower now and maybe if we get him we put him on the IL or something to rest up for a playoff push.

Given he's sidelined with elbow inflammation, I'm of the opinion we should look elsewhere. 

[rebldomakr]

I have gained a lot of trust for the Twins front office lately, but I must say that if this trade deadline goes down how I predict it will (no moves for the twins) I will have lost all trust... I don’t get in the slightest why they refuse to move Royce Lewis... he doesn’t help us win now or next year and those are the two years we MUST win and a lot of scouts predict he won’t stick in the big leagues due to swing, defense etc... the rotation has been okay to be honest up to this point, but by September they will be taking it easy with Michael Pineda, Martin Perez is either very good or very bad and there’s no in between, and even Gibson has been a little sketchy of late.. I guess if we have to Devin Smeltzer is a decent option, but I want the twins to be as good as the Astros or Yankees or Red Sox and in order to do that we need a guy like Thor, or minor or Greinke or even Robby ray... I’m also nervous about the rotation next year cause if there scared to go get someone now they will be during the off-season too.. and I can see it now the twins rotation being consisted of berrios, Smeltzer, Thorpe, Stewart and Martin Perez on an option (that rotation makes me sick) long story short I’m mostly scared of that being our rotation next year, and I know these next two years are the twins Window the win and I DO NOT want it to pass us by... also if they don’t get another reliver, atleast one more guy like Greene, Yates, Raisel Iglesias, Edwin Diaz AND also a guy like a Daniel Hudson or nick Anderson I will lose my mind... this team is good but Falvey and Levine are cheap and for some reason they think our rotation and bullpen is good enough as is andbim just really worried about this year and next year and our lack of pitching and the front office’ lack of guts to make a deal

[nicksaviking]

Seems like Giles is out, or at least he should be. Sounds like Syndergaard has mostly been a bluff this whole time. I've always been of the mind that AZ was too good and wouldn't actually sell, we'll see. If the Giants end up deciding to go for it and Pittsburgh holds on to Vazquez, we might not see as much activity today as everyone thought.

[Cody Pirkl]

The Indians lineup just got probably better than it was last year and they significantly closed the gap between the quality of their lineup and the Twins lineup. As for pitching, we all know there's no argument to be made with the rotation. They may be the better team at this point. It would be an all time Twins move if we don't make a counter trade. We have the firepower in the minors to do it, but there's been no indication that we will. This could be an absolute disaster of a trade deadline.

[woolywoolhouse]

I just don't want Puig getting pissed in an upcoming Twins/Indians series and rushing the mound at Rogers or Harper. Sano is going to have to be on "hired goon" dirty those games. 

 

Still thinking Twins will land MadBum or Minor. 

[Dantes929]

Yes the Indians got better offensively but Bauer pitched over 156 innings.   Next guy has pitched 140 innings and no one after that has pitched over 65 innings.   They are going to miss their quality innings eater.

[Platoon]

There seems to be a shortage of no miss arms, and a clear path. I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen as this FO has surprised us before, both pro and con. But I do know that no matter what, I don't want a trade made just for the sake of PR or selling tickets. I want the FO to run a baseball team and the marketing dept. to deal with tickets sales, and bloggers!

[nicksaviking]

 

There seems to be a shortage of no miss arms, and a clear path. I don't think anyone really knows what's going to happen as this FO has surprised us before, both pro and con. But I do know that no matter what, I don't want a trade made just for the sake of PR or selling tickets. I want the FO to run a baseball team and the marketing dept. to deal with tickets sales, and bloggers!

 

Yeah, I could still make a list of players I'd want who I actually think will be traded, but that list is significantly shorter than it was a week ago when it looked like half the league was for sale.

 

Still have 6+ hours for teams to change course though.

[DukeoftheDark]

I’m not sure how this is a big win for the Indians, they pick up two power hitters, who doesn't get on base, doesn't walk and can’t field.  Their combined WAR this year is 1.2.  Yasiel Puig is gone after this year so the pick-up is Reyes, who is basically a DH as he can’t field.  I guess that’s ok but the Indians traded away a really good pitcher who strikes a lot of people out, had one more year of control and has 17+ WAR over his time with the Indians. I think they just got worse.  The Indians got some Minor League depth as well and a former top 100 prospect.  The Padres got a Top 30 prospect and basically gave up a DH, that was the win.  Also Kolby Allard was the Braves 11th Best prospect coming into the season per MLB.com.  Fan Graphs has him for the Rangers at 23 and MLB.com has him at 16th.  SO... It wasn't a big haul...

[bighat]

I'm guessing we'll pull the deal on maybe one more mid-tier reliever. My prediction: Romo's the biggest name the Twins acquire here at the deadline.

 

Right or wrong, the FO can point to the overall record and say "we're good enough as we are, we'll take our chances with the team we have".

 

We'll see in a few hours!

 

Crazy to see Cleveland SUBTRACT pitching while in a pennant race. Guess when you have Kluber back in 2 weeks the move doesn't look too bad.

[ChrisKnutson]

Honest question, if Lewis, AK, and Grayerol are truly off the table, would a package of Larnach and Balazovic (or Duran) be worth landing Vazquez??

[Steve Lein]

 

..

5.  In Falvine we trust.  These guys have a philosophy, they're savvy, they've earned my trust.  This is not about money; this is about fit, risk/reward, short-term v. long-term, the fickleness of bullpen arms--lots of variables.  I trust these guys to figure it out, for this season and seasons to come.

 

For me, what they do today is going to decide how much I've earned their trust when it comes to the major league team. I like just about everything they've done related to the minors and prospects.

 

They struck out on their MLB deals last year as a whole I think, at least how it pertains to how this year has now gone. Just imagine how good this team would be Eduardo Escobar and Ryan Pressly still here. 

[Dr. Beanpole]

 

It’s so frustrating that we’re so clearly a buyer and have a great farm system and this is the stingiest deadline scenario ever.

When we have assets it’s a dead market. When we want to acquire them it’s “buxton lewis and Graterol for this 3.79 FIP reliever with 6k/9”

Ugh.

This is the main problem and probably the reason why the Twins have yet to make a move other than Sergio Romo. If "making a move" for them means giving up 2 of Royce Lewis, AK, Graterol, and Larnach and getting a middle reliever in return, that's not a move the Twins should make. 

 

Go add pieces at the deadline, but don't get fleeced while doing it. If everyone is going to be clinically insane with their asking prices, there's not much Falvey can do.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How Do the Twins Respond to the Trevor Bauer Trade?

 

First response: get a sympathy card for Max Kepler...

 

[Steve Lein]

 

I’m not sure how this is a big win for the Indians, they pick up two power hitters, who doesn't get on base, doesn't walk and can’t field.  Their combined WAR this year is 1.2.  Yasiel Puig is gone after this year so the pick-up is Reyes, who is basically a DH as he can’t field.  I guess that’s ok but the Indians traded away a really good pitcher who strikes a lot of people out, had one more year of control and has 17+ WAR over his time with the Indians. I think they just got worse.  The Indians got some Minor League depth as well and a former top 100 prospect.  The Padres got a Top 30 prospect and basically gave up a DH, that was the win.  Also Kolby Allard was the Braves 11th Best prospect coming into the season per MLB.com.  Fan Graphs has him for the Rangers at 23 and MLB.com has him at 16th.  SO... It wasn't a big haul...

 

I kind of agree with you on the hitters. They're not really that good.

 

Nelson Cruz as a DH has over twice the WAR of them combined.

[zenser]

If the Twins are interested in Ray and Bradley from Arizona, what do you think it would take to get them?  What if the Twins, dare I say, take on some of Tomas too?  Doesnt he have like 1 yr, $17 million left? 

 

Not that I would want them to do that but they get creative like that to lessen the prospects.

[twinkiesfan11]

I’m not sure how this is a big win for the Indians, they pick up two power hitters, who doesn't get on base, doesn't walk and can’t field. Their combined WAR this year is 1.2. Yasiel Puig is gone after this year so the pick-up is Reyes, who is basically a DH as he can’t field. I guess that’s ok but the Indians traded away a really good pitcher who strikes a lot of people out, had one more year of control and has 17+ WAR over his time with the Indians. I think they just got worse. The Indians got some Minor League depth as well and a former top 100 prospect. The Padres got a Top 30 prospect and basically gave up a DH, that was the win. Also Kolby Allard was the Braves 11th Best prospect coming into the season per MLB.com. Fan Graphs has him for the Rangers at 23 and MLB.com has him at 16th. SO... It wasn't a big haul...

Agreed! Don’t understand all the positive reviews this trade is getting in favor of the Indians. It’s not a bad haul but doesn’t overwhelmingly make them a better team.

[Alex Schieferdecker]

I really hope the front office ignores the peanut gallery and doesn't feel additional pressure to "make a deal" or "respond" to the Bauer trade. Let the Twins focus on what they can control. If there's a good deal to be made, make it. Don't force a bad deal just because you need to be seen as doing something.

 

Cleveland just traded away an ace-caliber pitcher for a couple of prospects and a couple sluggers of the caliber that the Twins have a bunch of, and who make Miguel Sano look like a gold glover. Oh, and one of them is about to be suspended. The deal might pay off, but it also might not. It's a big risk. The fundamental facts of both teams' remaining schedules remains the same. The Twins' three game lead remains the same. This quality Twins team remains the same.

 

Should they being working the phones all day to make a deal? Of course. But there's no cause for the Twins to make a gamble just because Cleveland did.

[Shaitan]

 

Right now, I am so confused. I need time to sort this all out. The Wets..,errr..,Mets, make a trade for Stoman because they will now go on a tear to compete, or flip him to another team who was already interested and will somehow/someway pay more more for Stroman than before..? Or they will be more likely to deal Syndergard now than before despite his injury history and poor 2019 ERA, (just an example) because they are so deep? The Indians trade their top SP for a couple of bats but weaken their rotation? This crap is crazy! And some want to question why the Twins FO are rubbing their hands together?

 

Twins are getting better because their competition is getting worse.

 

Sabotage!

[Monkeypaws]

Not making any more deals doesn't equate to doing nothing.

 

I'm sure the Twins are trying their damndest to get some pitching help, but so is just about every other contender. 

 

I'd rather they stand pat than make a desperation trade like Ramos for Capps, or end up fleeced in what looks like a sellers market. 

 

I believe a guy like Thorpe could be as good as some of the proven commodities being shopped around out there.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I’m not sure how this is a big win for the Indians, they pick up two power hitters, who doesn't get on base, doesn't walk and can’t field.  Their combined WAR this year is 1.2.  Yasiel Puig is gone after this year so the pick-up is Reyes, who is basically a DH as he can’t field.

 

I wouldn't call it a big win for Cleveland, but:

 

Fangraphs projects Puig and Reyes to be worth 1.2 WAR the rest of the season. And they are likely replacing Jake Bauers and Greg Allen, who were projected at 0 or slightly negative WAR the rest of the way (and have combined for -0.7 WAR already this year).

 

On the flip side, Fangraphs projects Trevor Bauer to be worth 1.6 WAR the rest of the season. Even if they replace Bauer with a 0 WAR starter, this could be close to a wash for 2019.

 

2020 is tougher -- Bauer projects at 3.9 WAR, vs Reyes at 2.4 -- but presumably that is where MLB ready pitching prospects Allen and Moss come into play, plus ~$20 mil salary savings and longer range prospect Nova.

[Otto von Ballpark]

baseballtradevalues.com has the Indians as the winner, and Reds as the loser, but I suspect they have Taylor Trammell overrated. Although that wouldn't really affect the Cleveland side of things, as they neither gave up nor received Trammell.

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/real-life-scorecard-tracking-our-values-against-the-2019-summer-trade-deadline/

[redstorm]

 

Honest question, if Lewis, AK, and Grayerol are truly off the table, would a package of Larnach and Balazovic (or Duran) be worth landing Vazquez??

 

Would it be worth it? Absolutely. Would the Pirates do it? I highly doubt it. In your proposal, you'd likely have to include BOTH Balazovic and Duran. That would be closer to fair value, and a pretty hard pill to swallow.

Edited July 31, 2019 by redstorm

[Otto von Ballpark]

To those downgrading Trammell (myself included):

 

Trammell is a 21 year old corner outfielder with 107 wRC+ at AA this season.

 

Kirilloff is a 21 year old corner outfielder / first baseman with a 109 wRC+ at AA this season.

 

Neither one is hitting for power in 2019, and have roughly equal strikeout rates. Kirilloff's advantage is in BABIP, while Trammell's is in walks and stolen bases.

 

Kirilloff obviously was much better in 2018, and we hope this downturn is due to an injury from which he can recover -- but he's up to 287 PA on the season now, including 150 PA (with a 96 wRC+) since his last trip to the DL.

 

If you're not crazy about Trammell, I could see why Kirilloff may not be a real attractive headliner for a blockbuster trade right now either.

[dex8425]

Count me as one who isn't sure the Indians got better from this deal. Puig would have the lowest OPS in the Twins lineup and Reyes is basically a DH who has been worth .4 WAR this year and has Sano-like injury concerns. This will expose the Indians pen even more and their pen is not very good. 

[SomeGuy]

 

I wouldn't call it a big win for Cleveland, but:

 

Fangraphs projects Puig and Reyes to be worth 1.2 WAR the rest of the season. And they are likely replacing Jake Bauers and Greg Allen, who were projected at 0 or slightly negative WAR the rest of the way (and have combined for -0.7 WAR already this year).

 

On the flip side, Fangraphs projects Trevor Bauer to be worth 1.6 WAR the rest of the season. Even if they replace Bauer with a 0 WAR starter, this could be close to a wash for 2019.

 

2020 is tougher -- Bauer projects at 3.9 WAR, vs Reyes at 2.4 -- but presumably that is where MLB ready pitching prospects Allen and Moss come into play, plus ~$20 mil salary savings and longer range prospect Nova.

The Cleveland rotation should be fine without Bauer though...Salazar returns Thursday and Kluber is starting a rehab assignment shortly. They will probably be rusty but there is a decent chance they will be replacing 2019 Bauer with a pitcher a bit better than 0 WAR.

 

2020 might look something like Kluber, Clevinger, Bieber, Salazar, Carrasco/Plesac/Allen/Plutko.

 

They dealt from strength and got a haul in return.  Reyes is only 23 years old and has a young career line of .266/.326/.519. He might not maintain that level but Matt Chapman is comparable at .263/.343/.504.  Add in Puig for 2019 and the decent prospects and it looks like a win for Cleveland.

[PDX Twin]

Note that a Twins' trade for Bauer would no longer be a trade "within the division." Would the Reds turn around and flip Bauer to the Twins? Would Bauer love to go out and beat the Indians down the stretch?