Article: Twins Trade Lewin Diaz for RHP Sergio Romo, 2 Minor Leaguers

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Actually, one fWAR is replacement level, unless you think it is that precise over a full year.....

As for his defense, that is what people said about Mauer. First base defense is just not that hard to find.

Sure, so now one WAR is replacement level.

 

Why not two WAR? Why not -1 WAR? -2 WAR?

 

The literal definition of the phrase ceases to have meaning if you play that fast and loose with it. First off, a "replacement player" is not necessarily available. You could go from what is close to a guaranteed +1 WAR to a -1 WAR without blinking. Or maybe you'll get a +3 WAR, who the **** knows?

 

The point is that a replacement player's value is centered around a number. Cron is better than that. Therefore, by the literal definition, he is not a "replacement level" player. Because if you eschew the artificial definition of a phrase you've put as a baseline because it suits your purposes, the phrase ceases to have any meaning whatsoever.

 

And keep in mind that the writer of that article couched his "replacement level" view of Cron based on three games as a designated hitter. Because that means something, right?

 

Just admit it was a trash take and move on, Mike, If you want to argue the legitimacy of Cron's performance, do it honestly.

[twinstalker]

Too many comments to wade through prior to making mine, so I'll write then read. Trading Diaz should not be an issue at all. The Twins would have to protect him this year, and it's highly doubtful that would happen. To get three assets for him is, in general, a great haul, even if one is just org filler.

 

The only question, and it's an important one, is if Romo is the best Diaz can bring or help bring. That depends on Romo to some extent. I highly doubt Diaz could ever bring more value than good Romo. 

 

The MiLB pitcher is a bonus.

[twinstalker]

 

So we're holding it against Cron that he happened to have three hot days at DH, which "makes him look" better than he really is at first, where he obviously is incapable of having three hot days in a row?

 

That Fangraphs writer kinda jumped the shark right there.

 

I do not think that phrase means what you think it means.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Actually, one fWAR is replacement level, unless you think it is that precise over a full year.....

As for his defense, that is what people said about Mauer. First base defense is just not that hard to find.

WAR stands for wins above replacement, does it not... Anything positive is technically better than a replacement player.

 

I don't have a problem with them looking to upgrade Cron this offseason... You always look for upgrades, but I doubt a minor leaguer walks in and out performs him, and I'm not going to call him a replacement player. 

[Doomtints]

 

What’s even sadder is assuming that no moves are coming because past front offices were overly conservative and assuming that same ethos applies to an entirely new front office that we’ve never seen operate under these conditions.

 

I am assuming nothing.

[jmlease1]

 

Sure, so now one WAR is replacement level.

 

Why not two WAR? Why not -1 WAR? -2 WAR?

 

The literal definition of the phrase ceases to have meaning if you play that fast and loose with it. First off, a "replacement player" is not necessarily available. You could go from what is close to a guaranteed +1 WAR to a -1 WAR without blinking. Or maybe you'll get a +3 WAR, who the **** knows?

 

The point is that a replacement player's value is centered around a number. Cron is better than that. Therefore, by the literal definition, he is not a "replacement level" player. Because if you eschew the artificial definition of a phrase you've put as a baseline because it suits your purposes, the phrase ceases to have any meaning whatsoever.

 

And keep in mind that the writer of that article couched his "replacement level" view of Cron based on three games as a designated hitter. Because that means something, right?

 

Just admit it was a trash take and move on, Mike, If you want to argue the legitimacy of Cron's performance, do it honestly.

 

This. 

 

bRef also defines their WAR pretty clearly:

8+ MVP, 5+ A-S, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, < 0 Repl

 

fWAR likes Cron less, but he's still not a replacement-level player.

 

Cron has been good, not as healthy as we might like. Certainly better than Austin, who was the option a number of people really wanted. he's likely to finish somewhere north of 2 bWAR, probably just south of 1 fWAR. YMMV on which is the better measure.

[jorgenswest]

The possibility that a reader could read that article and believe that Cron or Goldschmidt are replacement level is where fangraphs was irresponsible. They even admitted cherry picking by saying that Vogt should have been in the group after an 0-4 but they chose not to include him.

 

The overall message that the Twins might be able to improve at 1B for next year isn’t bad. Sano or Kirilloff or Rooker could be better. Cron has been hitting at the league average for 1B. There is space to improve. I don’t know how to measure his glove. I believe fangraphs uses a measure that relies on a batted ball but a 1Bs value comes from how they deal with throws from infielders much more than batted balls. That could be why there is a huge difference between Cron’s fWAR and bWAR numbers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

WAR stands for wins above replacement, does it not... Anything positive is technically better than a replacement player.

 

bRef also defines their WAR pretty clearly:

8+ MVP, 5+ A-S, 2+ Starter, 0-2 Sub, < 0 Repl

 

Technically and precisely, yes, 0 WAR is replacement, but in reality, we'd expect replacement level player performance to fall within a range. And that range actually ventures further into positive WAR territory than you might think, because guys who are in negative WAR territory tend to get cut.

 

In full-time play, I think of -1 to +1 WAR as a a general replacement level range. Cron has had a few seasons in that range, but is a still a little bit above that. So I agree that I wouldn't call him replacement level -- but one doesn't have to be replacement level to be replaceable either!

[Mike Sixel]

It's like margin of error doesn't exist all of a sudden....

 

But let's set aside if he's replacement level, or close... He's not good. He's ok. Which was the actual point of the post that started this tangent. I hope the find someone better, or much cheaper so they upgrade someplace else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sure, a margin of error exists... but it exists in both directions. It’s equally likely that Cron is a two WAR player that it is he’s a zero WAR player.

 

Therefore, I go with the number listed next to his name, which puts him as maybe a slightly subpar starter. And I’m not even sure I buy into that but baseball offense is so batty this season that it’s hard to wrap my head around what is good, bad, or average.

 

It doesn’t help that B-Ref has him valued so differently.

[alarp33]

 

The Yankees right handed batters crush right handed pitching. They do not do nearly as well against left handed pitching. Romo also has had the benefit of coming in to start innings this year. He has not pitched nearly as well with runners on base and certainly did not in 2018 when he has the more difficult role of coming in to put out a fire.

 

Reverse splits in a small sample sizes are not particularly meaningful. 

 

Voit and Torres for example have better numbers vs Righties than lefties this year, but both in their careers follow expected splits (hit lefties better). 

 

LeMahieu, Judge, Hicks, etc. all hit lefties better. 

 

A right handed pitcher like Romo who in his career has been death to righties is the correct move vs that lineup

[prouster]

As far as this whole WAR thing goes, I think it’s just really, really hard to be an “elite” first baseman given how the stat punishes the position defensively. There are currently four first basemen who have compiled more than 3.0 fWAR. One of them, Max Muncy, frequently plays other positions. Otherwise it’s Pete Alonso, Freddie Freeman, and Carlos Santana. Alonso is leading at 3.6 fWAR, which has required him to run a 149 wRC+. Fangraphs has him completely neutral as a base runner, and of course his defensive value is considered negatively given his position. For the sake of comparison, Xander Bogaerts is running a 150 wRC+ and is slightly positive as a base runner at about 2.5 runs—so something like 1/5 of a win. His fWAR is 5.1, in part because shortstops rightly benefit from playing a premium defensive position. My point is that a guy’s “eliteness” is largely a function of the position he plays. Currently, there are guys who are elite for first basemen, but it’s hard to say there are any first basemen who are elite players, at least according to the metrics I’ve included here. This seems weird to me.

 

By wRC+, Cron is about 10% better than the league average hitter. Are his defense and base running that bad? I don’t know. Maybe. He looks fine to me when I watch. Is he a replacement level player? No. I think the fact that he plays first base might distract us from the fact that he’s a pretty good hitter. It’s definitely a position that could be upgraded, but I wonder if it’s a position where there just aren’t many guys who could significantly impact the game according to Fangraphs’ metrics.

Edited July 29, 2019 by prouster

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Technically and precisely, yes, 0 WAR is replacement, but in reality, we'd expect replacement level player performance to fall within a range. And that range actually ventures further into positive WAR territory than you might think, because guys who are in negative WAR territory tend to get cut.

 

In full-time play, I think of -1 to +1 WAR as a a general replacement level range. Cron has had a few seasons in that range, but is a still a little bit above that. So I agree that I wouldn't call him replacement level -- but one doesn't have to be replacement level to be replaceable either!

That's fair, but I think it's right to say that Cron is on the ideal side of that metric. I do agree that he could potentially be upgraded, and if the cost is right why not... but... I would argue pretty vehemently that he's better than replacement. We've seen replacement level (or below) at 1B before. Cron isn't that. 

 

He may not be league average for 1B... but that doesn't mean he's a replacement player... if anything, it was a good acquisition for a fairly reasonable price. I'm not really liking our other options at 1B if we didn't have him. 

[yarnivek1972]

It's like margin of error doesn't exist all of a sudden....

 

But let's set aside if he's replacement level, or close... He's not good. He's ok. Which was the actual point of the post that started this tangent. I hope the find someone better, or much cheaper so they upgrade someplace else.

If he gets healthy reasonably soon he’s probably going to get 25 plus HR with a .320 ish ISO. He doesn’t strike out a ton for a power hitter. No one is saying he’s an all star but he’s a pretty solid veteran first baseman that slots very nicely into the lineup. As for salary, I don’t see him topping $ 9 mil in 2020. That would double his 2019 salary. Anyone “better” isn’t going to be cheaper and I doubt anyone cheaper will be better.

[Mike Sixel]

If he gets healthy reasonably soon he’s probably going to get 25 plus HR with a .320 ish ISO. He doesn’t strike out a ton for a power hitter. No one is saying he’s an all star but he’s a pretty solid veteran first baseman that slots very nicely into the lineup. As for salary, I don’t see him topping $ 9 mil in 2020. That would double his 2019 salary. Anyone “better” isn’t going to be cheaper and I doubt anyone cheaper will be better.

They need to find three or four starting pitchers next off season.... Given their fiscal restraint, would you rather downgrade first, or spend less on pitching? They will likely need relief pitching also.

[amjgt]

People seem to be conflating "replacement level" and "league average"

 

WAR isn't like ERA+ and OPS+ where league average is literally manipulated to 100. As an example Max Kepler was considered below league average offensively the last two years (OPS+ of 95 and 97), but still had a positive oWAR (1.4 and 1.7) 

Edited July 29, 2019 by amjgt

[yarnivek1972]

They need to find three or four starting pitchers next off season.... Given their fiscal restraint, would you rather downgrade first, or spend less on pitching? They will likely need relief pitching also.

The Twins are currently spending about $ 30 mil on the rotation. I would anticipate that being over $ 50 mil in 2020. On the presumption that the “regular” infield will be Cron, Arraez, Sano and Polanco, that’s about $20 mil. Maybe $18-20 mil on the OF unless Buxton or Rosario is dealt for pitching. IMO that is a distinct possibility if they hang onto Rooker. Trading either would drop the OF to $10-$12 mil. Garver is still pre-arb. I think the Twins will probably latch on to a veteran reserve (maybe even Castro) in the $ 4 mil range. Marwin and the rest of the bench for $ 11 mil tops. The Twins front loaded his deal and Cruz adds $ 12 mil. If my math is correct, that’s $117 mil with the current OF, or $ 107 mil if one is traded. So, that leaves about $ 20 - $ 30 mil for the pen. Rogers figures to get about $ 4 mil of that. So, there is room for 2-3 $ 8 mil per year guys.

[USAFChief]

The Twins are currently spending about $ 30 mil on the rotation. I would anticipate that being over $ 50 mil in 2020. On the presumption that the “regular” infield will be Cron, Arraez, Sano and Polanco, that’s about $20 mil. Maybe $18-20 mil on the OF unless Buxton or Rosario is dealt for pitching. IMO that is a distinct possibility if they hang onto Rooker. Trading either would drop the OF to $10-$12 mil. Garver is still pre-arb. I think the Twins will probably latch on to a veteran reserve (maybe even Castro) in the $ 4 mil range. Marwin and the rest of the bench for $ 11 mil tops. The Twins front loaded his deal and Cruz adds $ 12 mil. If my math is correct, that’s $117 mil with the current OF, or $ 107 mil if one is traded. So, that leaves about $ 20 - $ 30 mil for the pen. Rogers figures to get about $ 4 mil of that. So, there is room for 2-3 $ 8 mil per year guys.

I cant imagine a scenario where the Twins trade Buxton this winter.

 

Maybe Rosario, but that's pretty remote too, I'd think.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I cant imagine a scenario where the Twins trade Buxton this winter.

 

Maybe Rosario, but that's pretty remote too, I'd think.

Yeah, almost a zero chance on Buxton, I think.

 

Rosario might happen. It depends on the return, which I think is a big hurdle to overcome. Corner OF don’t bring a lot back nowadays unless they’re elite. Rosario is simply good.

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/it-may-really-be-the-lewin-diaz-trade/

[yarnivek1972]

As was mentioned, there is going to have to be some give in the payroll somewhere. I also think Rosario is the more likely trade candidate. He won’t fetch a king’s ransom, but even in this era, a 30 HR OFer controllable for two more years will have value.

[amjgt]

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/it-may-really-be-the-lewin-diaz-trade/

 

Did Jeter ghost write that?

[Dman]

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/it-may-really-be-the-lewin-diaz-trade/

 

Thanks for the link.  I really liked this statement form the article. 

 

"The star of this deal is Miami’s scouting department, on both the pro (which likely knew the background on Diaz) and amateur (which found Vallimont at a Division-II school in last years fifth round) side, even if Sergio Romo has a sizable impact on the postseason race. The Marlins flipped a rental reliever and recent fifth rounder for what might be a long term answer at first base."

 

I think Fangraphs see's this the way I do.  They are not declaring a winner of this trade just yet but Miami knew the Twins were going to have 40 man issues this summer and that there is a bit of a log jam at first base.  They targeted a very good bat that should be able to help them pretty soon and only had to give up a 5th round pitcher(at least until we know the player to be named later)  to do it.  Marlins got what they wanted\needed out of this deal and are likely a stronger club for it.

 

As much as I was down on Diaz until this year I really think he is in that Rosario mold of borderline All-Star caliber of player at his position.  If he ever gets better strike zone discipline then I see him as likely All-Star caliber.  He has a really sweet swing from what I have seen and has been a tough out all year this year.

 

I like Vallimont but don't know a lot about him.  Seems like a pretty short record to this point and from what I have read he needs a better third pitch but the guy could be good as well.  Maybe not All-Star level but we need good pitchers in the system and he should help with that.  We also get Romo, a player to named later and have one less player that needs rule V protection.  So this deal works out pretty well for us as well.

Edited July 29, 2019 by Dman

[USAFChief]

Just for the record, everyone is aware this winter would be Diaz's third in a row of rule 5 eligibility, right? He's been eligible for the past 2 years.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Did Jeter ghost write that?

Only the second half of the article. The first half was written by Sergio Romo’s agent.

[Mike Sixel]

Just for the record, everyone is aware this winter would be Diaz's third in a row of rule 5 eligibility, right? He's been eligible for the past 2 years.

For the record, is anyone down on giving up Diaz? I'm not sure I get your post. Help me out.

[USAFChief]

For the record, is anyone down on giving up Diaz? I'm not sure I get your post. Help me out.

a lot of "he needs 40 man protection this winter" posts.

 

Maybe, maybe not. He hasn't the past two winters. Not at all sure he'd last on a MLB roster next year. He's having a bounceback season, for sure, but is he ready to be a position player on a 26 man roster, all season?

 

Dunno.

 

And for the record, I like the Romo deal. He's a bullpen upgrade, for sure. There just needs to be more.

[yarnivek1972]

a lot of "he needs 40 man protection this winter" posts.

 

Maybe, maybe not. Not at all sure he'd last on a MLB roster next year. He's having a bounceback season, for sure, but is he ready to be a position player on a 26 man roster, all season?

 

Dunno.

 

And for the record, I like the Romo deal. He's a bullpen upgrade. There just needs to be more.

For a non contender like the Marlins? Probably. What do they have to lose? 95 games instead of 90?

[SwainZag]

 

a lot of "he needs 40 man protection this winter" posts.

Maybe, maybe not. He hasn't the past two winters. Not at all sure he'd last on a MLB roster next year. He's having a bounceback season, for sure, but is he ready to be a position player on a 26 man roster, all season?

Dunno.

And for the record, I like the Romo deal. He's a bullpen upgrade, for sure. There just needs to be more.

 

A lot more risk of being taken by a guy who has hit AA pitching fairly well compared to someone who had never been called up to that level yet.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

a lot of "he needs 40 man protection this winter" posts.

Maybe, maybe not. He hasn't the past two winters. Not at all sure he'd last on a MLB roster next year. He's having a bounceback season, for sure, but is he ready to be a position player on a 26 man roster, all season?

Dunno.

And for the record, I like the Romo deal. He's a bullpen upgrade, for sure. There just needs to be more.

He'd be claimed this year.

 

In 2017, he was a chunky, mediocre first baseman in low A ball.

 

In 2018, he was a really bad first baseman in high A ball (as in "under .600 OPS" bad).

 

In 2019, he's a slimmed down pretty good defensive first baseman with an OPS of .900 split between A+/AA.

 

That guy gets claimed, for sure.