Twins are impressive... but they won't win their division in 2019.

[spanman2]

The schedule has its peaks/valleys etc.  We know in "most" seasons nearly not all but nearly every team is going to lose 60 and win 60.  Is it a benefit to play a bad team...of course it is.  But if you catch them at the wrong time you can easily lose a series.  I expect the Twins to win the division and make a move or 2 along the way to improve the club.  Cleveland is not going to maintain their recent hot streak just as we did not.  We have 10 games left against Cleveland.  We need to go 6-4/5-5 in those games which I don't think is out of bounds thinking.  As for our remainng divsion games we need to play around .700% ball.  Play a few games above .500 on the rest of the schedule outside of our division and that should take care of it!

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Cleveland is 2-1 vs NYY, 2-1 vs BOS, 2-2 vs HOU. The Twins are now 1-2, 2-3, and 4-3 against those same 3 clubs.

What drags down the CLE record vs 500+ teams is a 1-5 mark vs Oakland and 1-3 vs Tampa, all accumulated while they were sputtering in May. Back then, Cleveland still had Gonzalez (OPS+ 47) and Martin (OPS 60+) in their regular lineup, both since DFA'd, and were missing Clevinger (as well as Kluber who is still out). Oakland still had ace Frankie Montas back then, whom the Twins missed in July while going 3-4 vs OAK. And even so, 4 of those 5 CLE losses to OAK were by only 1-2 runs (shades of the close Twins series) and they're now done with OAK for the season (and only play Tampa 3 more times).

No argument that Cleveland has played a light schedule that will get tougher, of course. But I'm not sure it's accurate to simply say "they've struggled against good teams" on the basis of that 15-21 record.

FWIW, B-Ref shows SoS (Strength of Schedule) and indeed Cleveland has the lowest in the AL so far, at -0.6. But next lowest is the Twins, at -0.4.

 

Since you want to dive deeper--one of the wins against Houston was against Cole when he was struggling (he had a 4.71 ERA AFTER giving up two runs in 7 innings in that game).  The other win against Houston was against McHugh, who has a 5.12 ERA on the year.  None of the 4 games was against Verlander, the Indian's 4 starters were Bauer, Kluber, Bieber, and Carrasco, and Lindor played in all 4 (he was a PH in one of the two losses).

 

When the Indians played the Yankees in June, Aaron Judge got 0 plate appearances, but Kendrys Morales and his 62 wRC+ got 7.  The Yankees were also playing well (104 win pace before the series), but have found another gear after that series (114 win pace since that series).

 

Going into the series against the Red Sox, Boston had just come off 3 games against Houston, as opposed to when they played the Twins, where they were coming off 3 games against Baltimore.

 

Against the A's, it should be noted that if you're going to give Cleveland a pass for struggling in May, you have to give the same to the A's--they weren't even a .500 team until their last win against Cleveland on May 22.  So the bad Indians went 1-5 against the bad A's, while the bad Twins went 3-4 against the good A's (the A's have played at a 101 win pace AFTER completing the sweep of the Indians).

 

The Twins opponents the rest of the way have a.463 winning percentage, the Indians are at .499.  what's more, the stretch the Indians embark upon Tuesday has them playing 20 games in 20 days against teams with a combined winning percentage of .583 (94 win pace), while the Twins play 19 games against teams with a combined winning percentage of .490 (80 win pace).  Essentially, the Indians are playing the Braves while the Twins are playing the Rangers for the next three weeks, and those three weeks are the toughest remaining portion of the Twins schedule.

 

While the Indians might be done with the A's, the Twins are done with the A's, the Rays, the Yankees, the Angels, and the Astros.  There are only 2 AL teams above .500 the Twins still have games against, and one of them is Cleveland who the Twins are 5-4 against.

[USAFChief]

 

I mentioned they struggled against good teams and immediately couched that by saying they were suffering through injuries during that period. Past performance does not guarantee future results and all that.

 

And, yes, both teams have weak schedules because they're the only two good teams in a pretty bad division. But one of those teams (the Twins) has played quite a few games against good teams while the other (Cleveland) has played cupcakes for most of the season. Given that both teams are in the same division, that is going to equalize going forward and that's a good thing for the Twins.

 

I don't really get why I'm seeing pushback on pointing out that Cleveland has played the fewest games against good teams in the entire league. That's just a fact.

You're not.

 

I'm saying "schedule" isn't a great reason to assume the Twins will win the division.

 

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I mentioned they struggled against good teams and immediately couched that by saying they were suffering through injuries during that period. Past performance does not guarantee future results and all that.

 

And, yes, both teams have weak schedules because they're the only two good teams in a pretty bad division. But one of those teams (the Twins) has played quite a few games against good teams while the other (Cleveland) has played cupcakes for most of the season. Given that both teams are in the same division, that is going to equalize going forward and that's a good thing for the Twins.

 

I don't really get why I'm seeing pushback on pointing out that Cleveland has played the fewest games against good teams in the entire league. That's just a fact.

I was mainly pushing back against your statement that the 15-21 record means "they've been pretty bad against good teams this season". They were bad against Oakland and Tampa (2-8). Is that enough to conclude they've been "pretty bad against good teams" generally? They have been better than the Twins vs BOS, NYY, and HOU (6-4 as compared to the Twins 7-9).

 

Part of only having 36 games vs .500+ teams is that it's a small sample and doesn't necessarily mean that much in general terms.

 

You're right, though, that the 36 is significant for what it implies about their remaining strength of schedule.

[howeda7]

 

Schedule is way overrated in baseball. Who you play is only mildly important. How YOU play is a much bigger factor.

Yes. But the difference in schedules between the two teams the last 6 weeks has been blatant. You don't normally have a 6 week stretch where you play 29 of 32 vs. bottom feeders while the team you're chasing plays 19 of 32 games against play-off contenders.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins just finished 3 series in which they played Cleveland, Oakland and New York and went 5-5. They can play with the better AL teams but must expect those teams will get better. The Twins need to win the deadline.

 

They also need to take care of the teams they should beat and that 0-2 against the Mets was a lapse they can’t repeat.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Against the A's, it should be noted that if you're going to give Cleveland a pass for struggling in May, you have to give the same to the A's--they weren't even a .500 team until their last win against Cleveland on May 22. So the bad Indians went 1-5 against the bad A's, while the bad Twins went 3-4 against the good A's

The Twins went 5-1 vs the "bad" Angels in May too, which is the bulk of our 5 wins above .500 vs .500+ teams. Cleveland played Seattle when they were still above .500 too; the Twins, below. We could play these micro-parsing games all day.

 

I absolutely agree the Cleveland schedule is tougher the rest of the way, but I thought Brock took it a little too far to say their record so far means they've been "pretty bad against good teams" generally. It's just too small of a sample to make that general conclusion.

 

And on the general topic, I still expect the Twins will beat Cleveland for the division. So don't think I am arguing that!

[MMMordabito]

Anything less than 5-2 against the White Sox and Marlins, and I will probably lean toward the sentiment of the OP.  I'll give Giolito and one of the Marlins young starters some pre-series props, but a division-champ hungry team pounds the pee out of those two teams (collectively 7-13 in their last 10 each, with 3 of those games against each other) right now.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Schedule is way overrated in baseball. Who you play is only mildly important. How YOU play is a much bigger factor.

 

Would you also accept that how your opponent plays is a big factor, and that teams with better records are more likely to play well on any given day?  If so, it would seem like schedule is pretty damn relevant.

[gunnarthor]

Thought this was interesting, just the number of games against teams with winning records in the AL and winning percentage 

Houston - 70 (!) .614

Tampa - 66 .464

Oakland - 63 .555

Twins - 53 .547

Yankees - 49 .653

Boston - 48 ..416

Cleveland - 36 .416

 

Think it's pretty clear that Houston and NY are the best two teams in the AL. But Twins and Oakland are the next two. 

[twinssporto]

 

I don't think the Orioles, Royals, Tigers or Blue Jays lied down and died. I think they lack talent. But you still have to beat them.

 

Cleveland isn't the same team they were in April-May. Nor apparently are the Twins, for that matter.

 

The Twins won't dominate anybody, including Chicago, KC, and Detroit, if they keep playing like they've played over the past month or so. Cleveland isn't going to keep playing .800 baseball, but they only need to play 3 games above .500 from here on out to pass the Twins if the Twins are a .500 team. 

 

And there are 9 games left head to head, I believe. 

I look forward to those head to head games against Cleveland and would bet a large sum that says the Twins take them down. No way I would take the Indians team over the Twins now or in September. I think those two clubs are going in opposite directions and the Twins have the momentum, youth and talent.

[USAFChief]

I look forward to those head to head games against Cleveland and would bet a large sum that says the Twins take them down. No way I would take the Indians team over the Twins now or in September. I think those two clubs are going in opposite directions and the Twins have the momentum, youth and talent.

I like the Twins chances too, especially if they get some pitching help.

 

I'm just saying if they do, it won't be because of the schedule.

[Reider]

 

If the Twins were playing how they played during this last series against the White Sox or Royals, they go 3-0.  Sure the pitching was not good, but the Yankees are a fantastic hitting team 1-9.  The Royals 2-4 hitters are worse then the Yankees 7-9 (last nights 6-8 with no Sanchez).

Agreed and the Twins proved it tonight by beating the White Sox 10-3. A lot of these teams won't be able to keep up with the Twins' hitting the way the Yankee's were able to (if the Twins bats stay hot).

 

The Twins still need pitching, but if they play the way they did against the Yankees, they can definitely still win ball games.

[Reider]

 

I have been saying it for a while ... this team reminds me heavily of the 2001 Twins. This is, as you can imagine, not a popular thing to say and a lot of people disagree vehemently. Those Twins had an identical hot start, hovered around .500 for a bit to maintain their lead, and then hit a wall when a couple of bizarre moves at the trade deadline and an unfortunate injury sunk the team. So far, the track is identical.

 

Whether or not these Twins suffer the same fate as that team did, losing the division to Cleveland down the stretch, we will just have to wait and see.

 

Whatever happens, 2001 was an exciting season and put the Twins on the map as a serious team. We all know how the decade went after 2001, so if the Twins don't make it this year there are still (probably) a few good years to come.

 

The Twins have scored 37 runs in the last four games and three of those games were against the Yankees! I wouldn't call that hitting a wall. Their offense is on fire again! They're playing with confidence and are not afraid of the Yankee's for the first time in who knows how long. They just need to acquire some pitching over the next few days and they definitely have a good chance of winning the division. In addition, they won the last series they played against Cleveland, so they're not afraid of Cleveland in head to head match ups either. If they win 5+ out of the last 9 games vs. Cleveland and win most of their other games, they should be able to win the division.

[ashbury]

Why is it Twins pitchers are constantly pitching behind in the count,ALL OF THEM. Time and time again they put themselves in a position of weakness by being behind in the count.

Are they? Do they?

 

If pitching behind in the count, you'd think this would show up in elevated walk totals. Instead, they are 5th of 30 major league teams in fewest walks surrendered. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019.shtml

 

You'd think their strikes-thrown would be few. Instead, they rank second in the majors in percentage of strikes. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2019-pitches-pitching.shtml

 

You'd think their number of instances of being behind in the count would be above league average. Instead, it's below. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=p&team=MIN&year=2019

 

As the saying goes, we're all entitled to our own opinions, but we're not entitled to our own facts.

[jkcarew]

I could see Cleveland over-taking the Twins. Mostly because I think Cleveland could stay hot...not because I expect a collapse from the Twins. And assuming they don't deal Bauer. Otherwise, Cleveland appears just a week or two away from replacing their worse starter (whoever that is) with Corey Kluber. And in July, Jose Ramirez is OPS'ing 1.028 in the middle of the lineup, as apposed to the .620, .725, and .557 he posted in the proceeding months.

 

Going into the season, I thought there would be no Wild-card from the AL central. Now, I'm not so sure.