Article: Let's Make A Deal, Part II: Payroll

[Major League Ready]

 

Kyle Gibson has been worth .8 WAR this season in 19 starts (105.1 innings). My opinion is that Thorpe could be that good (average?), yes.

 

Depends on if you are looking at bWAR or fWAR. Fangraphs has Gibson at 2.1 / Odorizzi at 2.2 and Berrios at 2.9 WAR. Regardless, Thorpe has not been nearly as dominant as Smeltzer in terms of MiLB performance. Why would you favor him over Smeltzer? 

[TouchEmAllGuy]

The Pohlad's won't increase payroll just because revenue is up. It is a business to them. IMO

[jokin]

 

Also I personally did not realize Rosario only has 2.5 years left with us, he is someone we need to lock up. He finds a way to impress me year after year.

 

Tough decisions coming for the FO, with Rosario the most important of the position players. If they think that Kiriloff will be ready by mid-season 2020, Rosario will likely be the one moved while there's still trade value. Hard to imagine, but they probably can't afford to extend Rosario and replace/re-up all of the departing/extended Starting Pitchers.

[JW24]

 

Depends on if you are looking at bWAR or fWAR. Fangraphs has Gibson at 2.1 / Odorizzi at 2.2 and Berrios at 2.9 WAR. Regardless, Thorpe has not been nearly as dominant as Smeltzer in terms of MiLB performance. Why would you favor him over Smeltzer? 

 

I think Thorpe's velocity gives him an advantage over Smeltzer in regards to staying in a MLB rotation. He is also still on the comeback trail from TJ, and I am assuming he will continue to improve from what we saw from his one outing. Again, just my opinion here.

 

As to Tomj14's point, I agree Gibson is undervalued. However, with his contract coming up at the end of this year, I think the Twins can replace his spot in the rotation and get similar results for a fraction of the price.

[SwainZag]

 

Ok... I think I may have figured or why we're disagreeing.

The final $22 million of that contract isn't guaranteed. Almost half of it. Year 6 is a vesting option that almost certainly benefits the team. Year 7 is a team option, which again, is only picked up if it benefits the team. His AAV the team is on the hook for is just over $5mil/yr for 5 years. And it's back loaded sho he doesn't even get the benefit of present value (imagine the Twins investing his remaining contract vs Polanco investing from day 1).

For the record, I wasn't saying it wasn't a fair deal at the time. I'm questioning whether we'll still consider it a fair deal going forward and for how long.

 

AH it was a 7 year extension, I should have noticed that.  They didn't go to ARB this year.  So they bought out all 4 years of his arbitration and gave him a 3 year extension onto that with 2 being team options.  The contract will work out for both of them.  If he doesn't play well, he probably won't vest that option and be able to hit FA after 2023.  If he is good, he will earn the 10M and 12M, and hit FA  after 2024.

 

 

 

[Tomj14]

 

 

As to Tomj14's point, I agree Gibson is undervalued. However, with his contract coming up at the end of this year, I think the Twins can replace his spot in the rotation and get similar results for a fraction of the price.

Last comment(s) because I have to go for the day, have a good weekend.

 

The Twins tried buying that last year with Ordo and Lynn and didn't get it, and may other teams did as well (the Cubs for example)

the Twins have tried that they last two years with Rookies and haven't gotten it either, so I don't think it is that simple to just pick up a top end #3 starter.

But I am hoping and praying Thorpe turn out close to as good as Gibson for his and the Twins (fans) sake next year and in the future.

[JW24]

 

Last comment(s) because I have to go for the day, have a good weekend.

 

The Twins tried buying that last year with Ordo and Lynn and didn't get it, and may other teams did as well (the Cubs for example)

the Twins have tried that they last two years with Rookies and haven't gotten it either, so I don't think it is that simple to just pick up a top end #3 starter.

But I am hoping and praying Thorpe turn out close to as good as Gibson for his and the Twins (fans) sake next year and in the future.

 

I agree that finding a solid #3 is not easy, and I don't take Gibson for granted (despite how my opinions may sound). 

 

Nice to chat with you, have a good weekend as well!

[bighat]

 

Wait, you are expecting Thorpe next year to pitch as well as Gibson this year? If other front offices believe that they Twins could trade him straight up for just about any pitcher outside of Thor today.

It seems very unrealistic that guy that has pitched in 1 major league game could do that next year. (I really, really hope he does and it is on the Twins, but in no way am I expecting anything near that from him next year, maybe not even pitching in the majors next year)

 

To me this is pie in the sky expectation, very similar to the talk about May becoming a starter for the Twins this year.

 

I have to agree, and sticking to that theme we should also feel similarly about guys like Larnach and Kiriloff to be honest. "Larnach should fill in for Rosario" is assuming a LOT.

 

Don't get me wrong, this was a great post from the OP and I love getting into the details here. But I do think it's wise to remind everyone that minor league talent is no good to the professional team unless they can play at the MLB level. We simply don't know that yet.

[operation mindcrime]

Don't forget that Addison Reed's $8.5 million will come off the books!

[Thrylos]

They are still paying Addison Reed $8.5M not to pitch.  That cash can go long way towards covering a set up guys' salary in 2020.

[howeda7]

 

I would offer him a contract on par with Acuna's to start. I don't know if Buxton would take it. The risk of injury is always going to be there but I don't think the Twins should try to low-ball him with that being their excuse.

 

How about 6 years, $100M. $10M per year of arbitration remaining, then $20M for the 4 years after. The Twins should be getting the absolute best and most productive years of Buxton's career at that point, and he would hit the market again as a 31-year-old in position to cash in at least one more time.

Wow. Hard pass on that. I'm not paying $20 million per year for a guy who will likely never play more then 120 games.

 

And his offense makes it unlikely he'll get $10 million/year in arbitration. I'd be willing to go something like 4/$44 starting at $8 million/year and escalating $2 million per year. Buying out two FA years for $26 million.

Edited July 19, 2019 by howeda7

[nater79a]

 

You didn't mention Matt Boyd, but that's probably a top name for a rotation piece next year.

 

I'd argue that one or both of Gibson/Odorizzi should be potential QO/extension candidates... Pineda is slowly moving into that group too. 

 

 

I think Jeremy was just listing names that wouldn't tie up any payroll thru arbitration beyond next season.

 

Believe Matthew Boyd has three seasons of arbitration coming up (potentially).

[JW24]

 

Wow. Hard pass on that. I'm not paying $20 million per year for a guy who will likely never play more then 120 games.

 

And his offense makes it unlikely he'll get $10 million/year in arbitration. I'd be willing to go something like 4/$44 starting at $8 million/year and escalating $2 million per year. Buying out two FA years for $26 million.

 

If the Twins offer Buxton that contract, they are telling him they are moving on from him. That would be insultingly low.

 

The idea isn't to pay him his arbitration value in his arbitration years; it is to pay him above arbitration value for those years in order to get some of his free agency years at a discount. 2.5 years from now, $20M per year will be a discount for Byron Buxton, based on both what his performance will be and what the free agent market grows to be.

[Elliot]

(not sure of numbers too lazy to verify, but they are close)

Twins with Byron Buxton, 52 wins 23 losses (.693). Twins w/o Byron Buxton 7 wins 14 losses (.333). I know, SSS ... but it sure seems as if what he brings to the team far exceeds what the numbers would seem to say. Very important extension, with the caveat that he has missed 20% of the games ytd.

[ashbury]

(not sure of numbers too lazy to verify, but they are close)

Twins with Byron Buxton, 52 wins 23 losses (.693). Twins w/o Byron Buxton 7 wins 14 losses (.333). I know, SSS ... but it sure seems as if what he brings to the team far exceeds what the numbers would seem to say. Very important extension, with the caveat that he has missed 20% of the games ytd.

Look at 2018 and 2017 too. You won't be disappointed.

[howeda7]

 

If the Twins offer Buxton that contract, they are telling him they are moving on from him. That would be insultingly low.

 

The idea isn't to pay him his arbitration value in his arbitration years; it is to pay him above arbitration value for those years in order to get some of his free agency years at a discount. 2.5 years from now, $20M per year will be a discount for Byron Buxton, based on both what his performance will be and what the free agent market grows to be.

Let him earn it then. I don't see teams lining up to pay him $20 million year for multiple years. 

[JW24]

 

Let him earn it then. I don't see teams lining up to pay him $20 million year for multiple years. 

I agree with the idea of letting him earn the money, but looking at his improvements from last season to this season offensively, the only thing he needs to do to be worth $20M per year is to stay healthy and play about 150 games.

 

Other teams don't have the luxury the Twins do with the 2 years of control after this season, but I would be willing to bet when Buxton is eligible for free agency, he would have 29 other teams willing to pay him $20M per season. Ok, maybe not the Rays.

[howeda7]

 

I agree with the idea of letting him earn the money, but looking at his improvements from last season to this season offensively, the only thing he needs to do to be worth $20M per year is to stay healthy and play about 150 games.

 

Other teams don't have the luxury the Twins do with the 2 years of control after this season, but I would be willing to bet when Buxton is eligible for free agency, he would have 29 other teams willing to pay him $20M per season. Ok, maybe not the Rays.

That's like saying Sam Bradford is a $20 million quarterback when healthy. Maybe he is, but it's irrelevant. If he does that a couple  times between now and FA, then you'll be right. But if he doesn't (which is more likely) then he'll be lucky to find one team willing to do so (who are the Arizona Cardinals of MLB)?

Edited July 22, 2019 by howeda7

[JW24]

 

That's like saying Sam Bradford is a $20 million quarterback when healthy. Maybe he is, but it's irrelevant. If he does that a couple  times between now and FA, then you'll be right. But if he doesn't (which is more likely) then he'll be lucky to find one team willing to do so (who are the Arizona Cardinals of MLB)?

I don't know if this comparison really makes sense. There isn't a position in all the rest of sports that compares to the importance of QB.

 

Looking at the contracts players that hit free agency are signing, the market rate per 1 WAR is approximately $7M. In the one season Buxton has played more than 100 game, he was worth 5.1 bWAR (3.5 fWAR). This season he has been worth 2.7 bWAR (2.3 fWAR). This production is worth $20M per year, and if he hits the market as a free agent, someone will pay it.

 

I respect your opinion that his future contract is predicated on Buxton staying healthy. If I am the in the Twins front office, I would pay him assuming he will.

[yarnivek1972]

Nelson Cruz was a 2.9 bWAR player last year.

 

He’s not making over $20 mil.

[alarp33]

 

Nelson Cruz was a 2.9 bWAR player last year.

He’s not making over $20 mil.

 

Contracts are not signed to pay a player for their previous season contributions, they are signed to pay a player their expected value going forward. Nelson Cruz is 39 years old, his market is not the same as a 26 year olds when signing a FA deal

[USAFChief]

 

Contracts are not signed to pay a player for their previous season contributions, they are signed to pay a player their expected value going forward. Nelson Cruz is 39 years old, his market is not the same as a 26 year olds when signing a FA deal

I huge portion of Buxton's WAR comes from defense. The methodology used to derive that defensive "worth" is pretty questionable, IMO.

 

I guess we'll see, in a couple years, if Buxton remains essentially same player, whether or not MLB front office put that kind of value on UZR.

[alarp33]

 

I huge portion of Buxton's WAR comes from defense. The methodology used to derive that defensive "worth" is pretty questionable, IMO.

 

I guess we'll see, in a couple years, if Buxton remains essentially same player, whether or not MLB front office put that kind of value on UZR.

 

I'm not really making an argument either way on Buxton, more so pointing out the flaw of saying Cruz signing for less than $7 million per WAR means something for Buxton. 

 

Because of Buxton's unique skill set, but also extensive injury history, it will probably be hard to agree on a real long term deal. Maybe the Twins can offer something to buy out just 1 year of FA that makes sense for both parties

 

 

[howeda7]

 

I don't know if this comparison really makes sense. There isn't a position in all the rest of sports that compares to the importance of QB.

 

Looking at the contracts players that hit free agency are signing, the market rate per 1 WAR is approximately $7M. In the one season Buxton has played more than 100 game, he was worth 5.1 bWAR (3.5 fWAR). This season he has been worth 2.7 bWAR (2.3 fWAR). This production is worth $20M per year, and if he hits the market as a free agent, someone will pay it.

 

I respect your opinion that his future contract is predicated on Buxton staying healthy. If I am the in the Twins front office, I would pay him assuming he will.

This is the crux of our disagreement. I'm not paying a player with 3 + years of service time assuming he will do something he's never done. He's also never sustained reasonable offensive production for more than 2-3 months at a time, and always takes awhile to get it going again when coming back from injuries.

Edited July 22, 2019 by howeda7