Noah Syndergaard

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Agreed. I’d argue Stroman is a better pitcher then Thor but has slightly less value due to team control and *potential* upside albeit more risk to completely flame out. It’s not like Stroman cost an arm and a leg. Kirilloff is a top 20 prospect in baseball for a reason. To simply say he’s a corner spot is laughable

Woof. No. Syndergaard is the better pitcher by a considerable margin.

 

Stroman has a 2.9 fWAR this year. Syndergaard, despite being "down" a bit in traditional metrics, is at 2.7.

 

That's well into "career year" territory for Stroman while Sydergaard is just having a Syndergaard year.

 

At the end of the day, one of these pitchers is short and having a career year while the other is still whipping his fastball at 98mph while being younger.

 

There's a reason why smart teams like the Astros and Twins were all over Syndergaard news while most smart teams also seemed to have tepid interest in Stroman.

[Twodogs]

"I don’t know why posters here overestimate other teams assets". THIS!; combined with "while underestimating the Twins assets" (when compared to the rest of the league)

Well when over estimating another teams assets could be an issue, I think we are estimating apples to oranges. I mean Thor is a very highly proven starting pitcher and Diaz is a closer that saved like 50 games last year; yes he is not doing as well this year but he does still throw 100mph, the twins have a tough time finding anyone who can throw 95 in the majors consistently. So the issue is that we would be offering guys that we hope can make it to the majors and they are trading guys that have already shown they belong in the majors. Geez I hope it happens, but those are the facts.

 

I think all this is being skewed by what Toronto got for Stroman. I feel like the Mets got away with something. Almost like Toronto hates the Yankees so much that they just gave Stroman to the Mets so the Yanks can't get him??? Porb not, but it really seemed like a cheap offer for Stroman?

[Otto von Ballpark]

"I don’t know why posters here overestimate other teams assets". THIS!; combined with "while underestimating the Twins assets" (when compared to the rest of the league)

You think people here *under*-estimate the value of Twins prospects?

 

Yet you endorse a post that suggests Smeltzer and Raley, brought in for 2 months of Dozier just a year ago, should now be sufficient to fetch 3.5 years of a top reliever?

 

(For the record, I think we did all right with that trade and Smeltzer in particular, but probably not *that* well!)

[AZTwin]

You think people here *under*-estimate the value of Twins prospects?

 

Yet you endorse a post that suggests Smeltzer and Raley, brought in for 2 months of Dozier just a year ago, should now be sufficient to fetch 3.5 years of a top reliever?

 

(For the record, I think we did all right with that trade and Smeltzer in particular, but probably not *that* well!)

It was an option if they liked certain guys for whatever reason (close to majors). There were plenty of other names in that list including a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. If they want higher upside and further away there are options for that too such as Kiriloff, Graterol and a guy like Alcala or Jax

[Twodogs]

Woof. No. Syndergaard is the better pitcher by a considerable margin.

 

Stroman has a 2.9 fWAR this year. Syndergaard, despite being "down" a bit in traditional metrics, is at 2.7.

 

That's well into "career year" territory for Stroman while Sydergaard is just having a Syndergaard year.

 

At the end of the day, one of these pitchers is short and having a career year while the other is still whipping his fastball at 98mph while being younger.

 

There's a reason why smart teams like the Astros and Twins were all over Syndergaard news while most smart teams also seemed to have tepid interest in Stroman.

I completely agree, however, Stroman has held his own against mostly the AL East?? I'll be interested to see how he does in the NL?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Agreed. I’d argue Stroman is a better pitcher then Thor but has slightly less value due to team control and *potential* upside albeit more risk to completely flame out. It’s not like Stroman cost an arm and a leg. Kirilloff is a top 20 prospect in baseball for a reason. To simply say he’s a corner spot is laughable

I think Kirilloff has fallen out of top 20 most places, no?

 

Teams put a premium on pitchers and up the middle players. That's why you left 5 of the top 6 Twins prospects off your list and only included Kirilloff. You can't do that and turn around and say Kirilloff is totally equivalent to those other guys.

 

And the *Jays* sold Stroman, not the Mets. And the Jays had way more incentive to sell Stroman now than the Mets do Syndergaard.

 

You can make an offer to the Mets for Syndergaard based on the Stroman deal, but the Mets have little reason to accept it.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It was an option if they liked certain guys for whatever reason (close to majors). There were plenty of other names in that list including a top 20 prospect in all of baseball. If they want higher upside and further away there are options for that too such as Kiriloff, Graterol and a guy like Alcala or Jax

I assume Kirilloff (plus others) are already in the deal for Syndergaard. Which is mostly fine. But you seem to be implying we can tack on a few lesser prospects like Raley to also add Diaz or Lugo -- that's what I am objecting to.

 

(I admit I missed it if you had Graterol on there -- that helps although his shoulder makes him a pretty questionable trade chip at the present moment.)

[AZTwin]

I think Kirilloff has fallen out of top 20 most places, no?

 

Teams put a premium on pitchers and up the middle players. That's why you left 5 of the top 6 Twins prospects off your list and only included Kirilloff. You can't do that and turn around and say Kirilloff is totally equivalent to those other guys.

 

And the *Jays* sold Stroman, not the Mets. And the Jays had way more incentive to sell Stroman now than the Mets do Syndergaard.

 

You can make an offer to the Mets for Syndergaard based on the Stroman deal, but the Mets have little reason to accept it.

I’m including Kirilloff because it’s rumored they want him the most (him or Lewis). He is top 20 at the list I’m looking at MLB pipeline. And I included in Graterol in other trade versions. I went for quantity in this option since they seem to prefer major league ready players. I didn’t make the offer based on Stroman deal. I made it based on the history of all deals of all time and how these players will help the team win the post season this season and continued value going forward. Just curious, who would you offer for Diaz?

[AZTwin]

Let’s just break it out another way...

 

And just so people aren’t nit picking let’s assume the Mets picked the highest ranking players. Would these trades individually be close?

 

Syndergaard for Alex Kiriloff, Lewis Thorpe, Blayne Enlow

 

Edwin Diaz for Nick Gordon and Fernando Romero

[AZTwin]

Let’s just break it out another way...

 

And just so people aren’t nit picking let’s assume the Mets picked the highest ranking players. Would these trades individually be close?

 

Syndergaard for Alex Kiriloff, Lewis Thorpe, Blayne Enlow

 

Edwin Diaz for Nick Gordon and Fernando Romero

My impression listing it out this way it’s slight underpay for Thor and slight overpay for Diaz or Lugo (btw I’d almost rather have Lugo)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I completely agree, however, Stroman has held his own against mostly the AL East?? I'll be interested to see how he does in the NL?

Oh, I think Stroman is a pretty good pitcher. I'd like him on the Twins, for sure. Stroman will probably be quite good in the NL, maybe even a tick better than he was in the AL.

 

But he ain't Syndergaard.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Let’s just break it out another way...

And just so people aren’t nit picking let’s assume the Mets picked the highest ranking players. Would these trades individually be close?

Syndergaard for Alex Kiriloff, Lewis Thorpe, Blayne Enlow

Edwin Diaz for Nick Gordon and Fernando Romero

Eh, a little light on Syndergaard. I think it'd take someone better than Enlow to close that deal.

 

Waaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy (and I literally cannot use enough "y"s here) too light on Diaz. If a team believed in Diaz, as they probably should, he alone should bring back Kirilloff, probably Kirilloff+.

[wyowib]

 

Well when over estimating another teams assets could be an issue, I think we are estimating apples to oranges. I mean Thor is a very highly proven starting pitcher and Diaz is a closer that saved like 50 games last year; yes he is not doing as well this year but he does still throw 100mph, the twins have a tough time finding anyone who can throw 95 in the majors consistently. So the issue is that we would be offering guys that we hope can make it to the majors and they are trading guys that have already shown they belong in the majors. Geez I hope it happens, but those are the facts.

I think all this is being skewed by what Toronto got for Stroman. I feel like the Mets got away with something. Almost like Toronto hates the Yankees so much that they just gave Stroman to the Mets so the Yanks can't get him??? Porb not, but it really seemed like a cheap offer for Stroman?

I agree with this, the cost for Stroman across the BB world was thought to be much higher than the actual price.  It reminds me when Tulo was traded, there were a few people on here that posted it would take 2 of Buxton/Sano/Berrios as a starter, yet the Blue Jays got him for much less in prospect capital (this is part of the back story for my underestimation comment).  At this point in time, I want the Twins to be on level of a Red Sox trade, not a Pirates trade, and I see giving the fee needed for Syndegaard more in line with getting Archer than Sale.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I agree with this, the cost for Stroman across the BB world was thought to be much higher than the actual price.  It reminds me when Tulo was traded, there were a few people on here that posted it would take 2 of Buxton/Sano/Berrios as a starter, yet the Blue Jays got him for much less in prospect capital (this is part of the back story for my underestimation comment).  At this point in time, I want the Twins to be on level of a Red Sox trade, not a Pirates trade, and I see giving the fee needed for Syndegaard more in line with getting Archer than Sale.

I think there's a good lesson to be learned here about armchair GMing and actual GMing. There's a good reason why teams weren't lining up to pay that kind of price for Tulo, because look at what Tulo became (and it didn't happen out of nowhere, there were indications he was declining).

 

And I say this as a person who wanted Tulo.

[wyowib]

 

You think people here *under*-estimate the value of Twins prospects?

Yet you endorse a post that suggests Smeltzer and Raley, brought in for 2 months of Dozier just a year ago, should now be sufficient to fetch 3.5 years of a top reliever?

(For the record, I think we did all right with that trade and Smeltzer in particular, but probably not *that* well!)

I can't respond to this because I don't know the context of what you're referencing.  I've been a "lurker" on this site since its inception but, as you can see, don't have a lot of experience posting or liking.  Can you tell my how to find the post I endorsed that you're referencing, for context, so that I may respond. What you specifically posted is not in line with my thought process so I would like to either respond in context or apologize for the influential contents of my cup.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I can't respond to this because I don't know the context of what you're referencing.  I've been a "lurker" on this site since its inception but, as you can see, don't have a lot of experience posting or liking.  Can you tell my how to find the post I endorsed that you're referencing, for context, so that I may respond. What you specifically posted is not in line with my thought process so I would like to either respond in context or apologize for the influential contents of my cup.

Your post sounded like you thought this board undervalues Twins prospects while overvaluing opposing player values.

 

As a person who has run a team-centric forum for well over a decade now, I can tell you with utmost certainty the opposite is true.

[jimbo92107]

 

I think Duran and Lewis Thorpe would’ve been a better offer than what the Blue Jays got

Yes, and both Duran and Thorpe may turn out to be better pro pitchers than Stroman. 

[wyowib]

 

Your post sounded like you thought this board undervalues Twins prospects while overvaluing opposing player values.

 

As a person who has run a team-centric forum for well over a decade now, I can tell you with utmost certainty the opposite is true.

Uumm, I'm confused?  The post I made that you are responding to had to do with spycake calling me out for endorsing a trade of "Smeltzer and Raley, brought in for 2 months of Dozier just a year ago, should now be sufficient to fetch 3.5 years of a top reliever?" , which I never said and am attempting to find the post I liked that spycake is referring to so I can have a legitimate conversation regarding the context of said post that I'm being called out for  

[old nurse]

 

I don't see #Twins on any recent tweets... Sigh.

The wuz wrong so it really did not matter if there was a #twins

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Uumm, I'm confused?  The post I made that you are responding to had to do with spycake calling me out for endorsing a trade of "Smeltzer and Raley, brought in for 2 months of Dozier just a year ago, should now be sufficient to fetch 3.5 years of a top reliever?" , which I never said and am attempting to find the post I liked that spycake is referring to so I can have a legitimate conversation regarding the context of said post that I'm being called out for  

 

I think that thread was between spycake and AZTwin… Guessing people got confused. Not a big deal. 

 

The Met's return was pretty light. I'm truly not surprised too much there. I've been lukewarm on Stroman, so this doesn't surprise me. Seems trade requests are coming down a bit as we get closer to the deadline. I'm still not sure what to think about Thor. He's not been his typical self this year, and I'd like to know why before ship off a top 100 prospect or two for him. That's me I guess. But Thor and Diaz would present very nice additions to this team.

 

So the question I have... would you trade Kirilloff (and change) for Thor or would you try and get the Mets to take Graterol. I've soured a bit on Graterol given his ability to stay healthy. We've been calling him untouchable, but I almost wonder if that's a bit of posturing if he were to be suddenly available. I like Graterol the prospect, but he's not going to help much on the IL. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I can't respond to this because I don't know the context of what you're referencing. I've been a "lurker" on this site since its inception but, as you can see, don't have a lot of experience posting or liking. Can you tell my how to find the post I endorsed that you're referencing, for context, so that I may respond. What you specifically posted is not in line with my thought process so I would like to either respond in context or apologize for the influential contents of my cup.

You had just endorsed a post about valuation from poster AZTwin. AZTwin had also just posted (in this thread) a big list of mostly modest Twins prospects he felt could bring back Syndergaard and Diaz/Lugo, which I assumed you were also in agreement with. Sorry, I should have been more clear.

 

I grabbed Smeltzer and Raley out of the list as an example of how light the Diaz side of his trade seemed; AZTwin has now specifically proposed Gordon and Romero. Still seems very light to me.

 

Sorry to pick on you specifically. I appreciate the discussion.

[Major League Ready]

 

I think that thread was between spycake and AZTwin… Guessing people got confused. Not a big deal. 

 

The Met's return was pretty light. I'm truly not surprised too much there. I've been lukewarm on Stroman, so this doesn't surprise me. Seems trade requests are coming down a bit as we get closer to the deadline. I'm still not sure what to think about Thor. He's not been his typical self this year, and I'd like to know why before ship off a top 100 prospect or two for him. That's me I guess. But Thor and Diaz would present very nice additions to this team.

 

So the question I have... would you trade Kirilloff (and change) for Thor or would you try and get the Mets to take Graterol. I've soured a bit on Graterol given his ability to stay healthy. We've been calling him untouchable, but I almost wonder if that's a bit of posturing if he were to be suddenly available. I like Graterol the prospect, but he's not going to help much on the IL. 

 

Me too in regard to Thor.  After all, he is a guy who was so great as to earn a mighty nickname. Teams who believe they are in a window simply don’t trade Ace SPs with 2 ½ years left under arbitration, especially teams with above average income. It would suggest the Mets are not confident he will return to ace form.  His 2019 looks very similar to Kyle Gibson. 

 

BV might also be thinking about his job security. The Mets are 5 games under 500 after making several off-season moves. He spent $120 on Cano in order to get Diaz which was very risky. Cano was 35 at the time and we all know how volatile closers can be. Cano in just the 2nd year of the remaining 5 years has a negative WAR rating. Diaz has an fWAR of .4.  and a bWAR of -.1. As I recall, there were posters here wished we had made that deal.

 

Justin Dunn who they traded for Cano/Diaz is now listed at #77 on MLB.com top 100 and is showing well in AA. Kelenic, the 19 y/o CF that was included in that deal had a 980 OPS in 50 games at class A and 760 at A+ so far. They also traded Swarzak in that deal who has been better than Diaz this year.

 

They also had a big swing and miss with Familia signing him for 3/30. He has a -1 bWAR. BV’s track record is horrible so far. BV could at least partially redeem himself if he gets a haul for Syndergaard, especially if he goes on to perform at similar levels for the remainder of his arbitration years.

[alarp33]

 

 

So the question I have... would you trade Kirilloff (and change) for Thor or would you try and get the Mets to take Graterol. I've soured a bit on Graterol given his ability to stay healthy. We've been calling him untouchable, but I almost wonder if that's a bit of posturing if he were to be suddenly available. I like Graterol the prospect, but he's not going to help much on the IL. 

 

2.5 years of control for a front end starter. If it came down to it, I'd give up both I think. 

[nicksaviking]

 

I think that thread was between spycake and AZTwin… Guessing people got confused. Not a big deal. 

 

The Met's return was pretty light. I'm truly not surprised too much there. I've been lukewarm on Stroman, so this doesn't surprise me. Seems trade requests are coming down a bit as we get closer to the deadline. I'm still not sure what to think about Thor. He's not been his typical self this year, and I'd like to know why before ship off a top 100 prospect or two for him. That's me I guess. But Thor and Diaz would present very nice additions to this team.

 

So the question I have... would you trade Kirilloff (and change) for Thor or would you try and get the Mets to take Graterol. I've soured a bit on Graterol given his ability to stay healthy. We've been calling him untouchable, but I almost wonder if that's a bit of posturing if he were to be suddenly available. I like Graterol the prospect, but he's not going to help much on the IL. 

 

I'm also worried that Graterol will struggle to stay healthy. I still push to move Kirilloff first though simply because of how many options this team has at the corner spots. Considering lesser prospects Rosario, Kepler, Garver and Polanco have outshined higher prospects Sano, Buxton and Gordon, I think there's too high of an assumption that Kirilloff is going to turn out better than all or most of Larnich, Rooker, Raley, Davis, Blankenhorn and Wiel. Odds are that Kirilloff will not be the best of that group, but even if he is, there's enough of them that the Twins will still likely be left with a decent ballplayer or two from that group.

 

Not that there's any room for them as the roster is currently constructed.

[markos]

 

2.5 years of control for a front end starter. If it came down to it, I'd give up both I think. 

Yeah, I would to. I've waffled back and forth the last few days about what kind of package I would support, but at least this morning I'd be okay including one of Lewis/Kirilloff, one of Graterol/Larnach/Balzovic/Rortvedt/Jeffers/Thorpe/Arraez/Cavaco (the rest of my personal top-10), and one of everyone else.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, I would to. I've waffled back and forth the last few days about what kind of package I would support, but at least this morning I'd be okay including one of Lewis/Kirilloff, one of Graterol/Larnach/Balzovic/Rortvedt/Jeffers/Thorpe/Arraez/Cavaco (the rest of my personal top-10), and one of everyone else.

I’d alter the second list a bit depending whether the Mets want Lewis or Kirilloff but this looks pretty good to me.

[alarp33]

 

Yeah, I would to. I've waffled back and forth the last few days about what kind of package I would support, but at least this morning I'd be okay including one of Lewis/Kirilloff, one of Graterol/Larnach/Balzovic/Rortvedt/Jeffers/Thorpe/Arraez/Cavaco (the rest of my personal top-10), and one of everyone else.

 

I think both are going to be great, but I'd prefer to move Kiriloff over Lewis.

 

And I'd likely prefer to move Graterol over Balzovic. 

 

For that level of player with that length of control, I'd be thrilled if only one of these 4 names were involved, but would expect it to be 2. 

[Vanimal46]

I've got to imagine Graterol's rehab start in the GCL will be highly attended by opposing scouts. The timing works well to include him in trades now.

 

I concur with markos' list of trade pieces. Let's get this done.

[USAFChief]

I wonder why the Mets would be trying to trade Syndergaard, but unless the FO is aware of some medical issue, this is the type of pitcher you spend major prospect capital to acquire. Just too rare, and too potentially impactful not to. With control, and no burdensome contract to deal with.

[redstorm]

 

I wonder why the Mets would be trying to trade Syndergaard, but unless the FO is aware of some medical issue, this is the type of pitcher you spend major prospect capital to acquire. Just too rare, and too potentially impactful not to. With control, and no burdensome contract to deal with.

 

My gut tells me that he has requested a trade behind the scenes due to the ineptness of the new front office (pure speculation on my part, of course)