Article: Week in Review: Second Half Statement

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins opened their season with an impressive series win against Cleveland at Target Field, setting the tone for a first half that saw Minnesota build up a sizable lead in the AL Central.

 

That lead had dwindled somewhat by the time last week's All-Star break came around, but the Twins opened their second half by adding to it with another big statement – this one made all the more impressive by preceding trends and an away setting.

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/8 through Sun, 7/14

***

Record Last Week: 2-1 (Overall: 58-34)

Run Differential Last Week: +5 (Overall: +121)

Standing: 1st Place in AL Central (6.5 GA)

Willians Watch: Out Indefinitely

The big surprise coming out of the break was that the Twins did not activate Eddie Rosario, who by all indications was ready to go when his 10 days on the Injured List lapsed, and held back as a mere precaution. Rosario was not in the lineup for any of Minnesota's three games against Cleveland, and his absence was felt – especially on Sunday when the Twins simply could not find that big hit.

 

It sounds like there's a good chance he'll be activated Tuesday against the Mets, but this front office has been really tough to read. They're cryptic in communicating about injury status, and we've seen them opt for the conservative route on almost every occasion. This approach has served them well, so I don't have a problem with it, but it's consequentially impossible to say with certainty when Rosario will be back. The same is true for Byron Buxton, who hit the ground hard on a fantastic diving catch Saturday and was out of the lineup on Sunday, and C.J. Cron, who's eligible to be activated from the IL on Tuesday.

 

One big noteworthy roster move from the past week: Adalberto Mejia was designated for assignment to make room for Jake Odorizzi's return from the IL. The big lefty just hasn't shown enough and his latest meltdown was the last straw. I'm guessing he'll be claimed on waivers by some also-ran non-contender that views him as a cheap starting option with remnants of upside.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

 

Plenty of Twins hitters rose to the occasion in Cleveland. There were home runs from some of the usual fixtures – Max Kepler (x2), Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver – and also big production from an unexpected source: Jake Cave delivered a home run and clutch two-run double in Saturday's series-clinching victory. He had just a .542 OPS with the Twins coming in, and the big breakout was very much welcomed with the continuing absence of Rosario.

 

Jorge Polanco, fresh off delivering an RBI hit in Tuesday's All-Star Game, came through when it mattered on Friday, launching a two-run double over the center fielder's head to put Minnesota in front for good in the seventh. Polanco added three more hits on Saturday.

 

Also on Saturday, fellow All-Star Odorizzi had a nice return to form, hurling 5 1/3 innings of one-run ball to pick up his 11th win of the season (first in nearly a month). A solo homer by Jose Ramirez represented the only damage against Odorizzi, who otherwise allowed just two singles and two walks. Still, despite the successful results, his lack of swing-and-miss prowess was conspicuous. Odorizzi struck out only two hitters, a number he's posted in three of his past four turns. He had struck out three or more in 12 of his first 14 starts.

 

While the lineup and rotation had their moments, the biggest story in this series – in an extension of the encouraging trend we highlighted last week – was the excellent work from Minnesota's bullpen. The unit stepped up after a short start on Friday with 5 1/3 scoreless innings, facilitating the critical comeback win. Trevor May, Zack Littell and Ryne Harper paved the way for Taylor Rogers to close it out with a two-inning save; collectively, those four struck out seven, with two hits and one walk allowed.

 

The Twins turned to Rogers again on Saturday, with a four-run lead in the ninth, and he was perfect. Since that late-May stretch where he allowed home runs in back-to-back games, Rogers has a 0.90 ERA and 25-to-1 K/BB ratio in 20 innings of work. During that span he has allowed seven hits – five of them singles. As Aaron Gleeman notes here, Rogers has been the biggest difference-maker among AL relievers this year, and no one else is close:

 

 

May's costly mistake on an 0-2 pitch on Sunday, taken deep by Carlos Santana for a decisive home run, was an unfortunate blemish amidst a strong stretch (and, really, season) for the right-hander. He bridged the gap on Friday by getting four big outs, and blew away the three other hitters he faced on Sunday. Over his past six appearances he has piled up a whopping 14 strikeouts with one walk in 7 1/3 innings. Santana's bomb stands as the only extra-base hit allowed during that span, and one of just three homers May's surrendered all year. He's a viable setup man, in spite of this hiccup.

 

Littell is emerging as a legitimate late-inning option himself. He tossed two more scoreless innings last week and hasn't allowed a run in eight appearances since the start of June. During that span he has a dazzling 16% swinging strike rate, although the five walks are a bit concerning.

 

Cleveland's bullpen has the best ERA in the league but it was Minnesota's that shined in this showdown: Twins relievers allowed just two runs (on solo homers against May and Tyler Duffey) in 12 innings, with 14 strikeouts and one walk. Phenomenal stuff.

 

LOWLIGHTS

 

Kyle Gibson was cruising along on Friday, fanning four through three scoreless innings, before everything unraveled in the fourth. A home run, a walk, an error, a bloop two-run single, and a hit-by-pitch all contributed to a series of events that saw Gibson lifted before escaping the frame.

 

It's been a weird run of usage lately for Gibson, whose past four outings have included one-inning appearances as a reliever (in the 17th) and an opener (in the first). Outside of those, in his more traditional starts, he hasn't looked very good of late, allowing three-plus runs in six of his past seven turns.

 

Over the course of the year, Gibson's been plagued by the same issue that afflicted Odorizzi last year: hitters are seeing him way better on successive trips through the order. His first time through, the righty is holding opponents to a .197/.278/.275 line, and we saw this play out on Friday as he mowed through the first three innings. Then, the second time through the order, opponents improve to .246/.311/.442, and the third time that goes up to .340/.376/.553. Against Cleveland, Gibson didn't even make it to that third go-round.

 

To be a reliable force for Minnesota down the stretch, Gibson's going to need to find a way to give hitters a different look in their second and third at-bats.

 

Working deep into games hasn't generally been an issue for Jose Berrios, who has failed to reach the sixth only three times all season. But two of those have come in his past two starts, which have both seen Berrios ousted after five innings while allowing three runs and battling uncharacteristic command struggles. The right-hander's 1.6 BB/9 rate through the first three months ranked among the best in baseball, but he's now issued three walks in back-to-back starts.

 

On offense, there were plenty of trials experienced against Cleveland's outstanding staff, but no one looked worse than Jonathan Schoop, who went 1-for-9 with five strikeouts in his two starts. One of those K's came in a huge spot with the bases loaded and no outs in the seventh on Sunday, and it ran Schoop's futility with bases juiced this year to 0-for-8. He'd entered the game sporting a .167/.235/.449 line with runners in scoring position, and .158/.256/.184 in "Late & Close" situations.

 

Schoop's overall production has been plenty respectable, but if it seems like he's been getting fat off lopsided blowouts, you're not mistaken. His most recent offensive explosion, before the break when he put up a homer, two doubles and four RBIs in a 15-6 laugher against Texas, was typical. He has a 1.119 OPS when hitting with a score margin of four-plus runs, and his numbers get progressively worse the closer the game is.

 

The Twins are plainly a better team with Luis Arraez or Marwin Gonzalez at second base over Schoop, and you can make a pretty decent case for Ehire Adrianza as well. It'll be interesting to see how the veteran's playing time shapes up in the final months, especially considering the other three are clearly bigger factors in the team's future plans.

 

TRENDING STORYLINE

 

With Mejia out, the Twins have an immediate need for a second southpaw in the bullpen. They really don't have a single situational guy to face tough left-handed hitters at this point, since Rogers is more of a closer and all-around max-leverage stud. That's something they'll almost certainly want to address in short order.

 

Internal options are waning. Like Mejia, Gabriel Moya and Andrew Vasquez have pretty much pushed themselves out of the picture this year, as both have been outrighted from the 40-man roster. Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer are certainly intriguing options, but both are still working as starters in Rochester.

 

It seemed like Littell benefited from getting the chance to transition to a relief role in the minors; will the Twins take a similar approach with one of these two? Or will they strike quickly on the trade market to address their need? Or both?

 

DOWN ON THE FARM

 

Minnesota's representatives in the All-Star Futures Game, which took place ahead of last week's midsummer classic, performed accordingly in their returns to the field. Shortstop Royce Lewis and right-hander Jordan Balazovic – ranked No. 1 and No. 6, respectively, in our recently updated midseason prospect rankings – both participated in the talent showcase, then got back to work at Fort Myers.

 

Lewis launched a pair of homers in six games for the Miracle and also drew three walks. The power outburst was nice to see but I'm more heartened by the patience; he has been undone by a lack of discipline this year, and entered last week with a 25-to-2 K/BB ratio in 28 games dating back to the start of June. His balky swing mechanics are among the reasons Keith Law dropped Lewis from No. 9 to No. 34 in his new midseason ranking updates at ESPN.

 

Balazovic, on the other hand, was all the way up to No. 44 in Law's rankings, after appearing as a "Just Missed" guy on the fringe of the spring Top 100. Balazovic had his usage altered a bit coming off the Futures Game appearance, and worked in relief for Fort Myers on Friday night. His results were customary. Entering in the sixth and working the final four frames, Balazovic held the Bradenton Marauder scoreless on one hit while notching six strikeouts.

 

Meanwhile, it's getting tougher and tougher to understand why Trevor Larnach is still on the same roster as these two. Minnesota's first-round pick from last year's draft has been tearing up Florida State League pitching and was tremendous last week, going 12-for-26 with a homer and six RBIs in six games. That home run was his first in five weeks, so there's certainly a noticeable dearth of power from the former star collegiate slugger, but he's batting .316 and the quality of at-bats has consistently been very good. I wonder if the Twins will let the 22-year-old start acclimating to Double-A before season's end.

 

LOOKING AHEAD

 

The Twins came just short of delivering a critical hit to Cleveland on the road, but should still be feeling good with an extra game in the standings as they return home for a fairly key juncture. They'll be lucky to avoid Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom in their two-gamer against the Mets, but will then have a tough challenge ahead of them with four games against an A's team that gave them plenty of trouble in Oakland at the beginning of the month.

 

Meanwhile, Cleveland will get Detroit and Kansas City at home. If they can't close the gap some in the next seven days they'll be facing some cold realities as they look inward at the deadline.

 

TUESDAY, 7/16: METS @ TWINS – RHP Zack Wheeler v. RHP Michael Pineda

WEDNESDAY, 7/17: METS @ TWINS – LHP Steven Matz v. LHP Martin Perez

THURSDAY, 7/18: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Mike Fiers v. RHP Kyle Gibson

FRIDAY, 7/19: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Chris Bassitt v. RHP Jake Odorizzi

SATURDAY, 7/20: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – LHP Brett Anderson v. RHP Jose Berrios

SUNDAY, 7/21: ATHLETICS @ TWINS – RHP Daniel Mengden v. RHP Michael Pineda

 

Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps

• Game 90 | MIN 5, CLE 3: Late Rally, Bullpen Power Stunning Comeback Win
• Game 91 | MIN 6, CLE 2: Series Clinched Behind Big Performances From Kepler, Cave
• Game 92 | CLE 4, MIN 3: Cleveland Prevails, Avoids Sweep

 

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[jz7233]

When there is a hitting party, Schoop will probably join. When there is a big hit needed or the game is on the line, it's almost a guarantee that he's not going to deliver. That's why Brewers let him go. Schoop is exactly the kind of players a contending team does not want because he is not going to help the team win in big games. I would not want to see Schoop in Twins uniform even if he only makes league minimum.

Edited July 14, 2019 by jz7233

[Aerodeliria]

Schoop hit well earlier in the season, but his flaws concerning pitch selection are coming to fruition at an inopportune time. The Twins had a few chances to sweep the series but didn't hit particularly well with RISP in the finale. Garver's AB after the Arraez double was equally futile, especially down a run. Oh well, we pushed Cleveland back a game. That was the overall goal.

[jimbo92107]

Bring up both Thorpe and Smeltzer for the second half push. Put both of them in the bullpen, with the option of using either for long-inning relief or as a spot starter. Smeltzer definitely looks like he can handle the pressure - he just goes out there and competes. Thorpe's first start looked just fine, and I have no trouble thinking he can get outs from the pen, too. Two good lefties, just waiting for a chance. 

 

After that, you've still got Poppen, Stewart, and Romero. Live arms, every one.

 

Oh, and don't let's forget Cody Stashak. Effective relief pitcher, seeks team with need for same. 

 

Don't sell the farm. Use the farm!

[mike8791]

Nick, nice summary, as usual.  A few comments on your comments:

 

1. In my blog on suggestions for a high profile trade for Syndergaard, I pointed out the glaring need for an ace, especially if we are to break a string of failures going back to 2002 in advancing beyond Rd. 1 of the playoffs.  In a game that could have buried Cleveland for good, Berrios failed miserably.  This follows a pattern in the last couple of years where he seems to wilt in pressure games.  He is nowhere near an ace the Twins need!

 

2. I, too, am concerned about the team's all or nothing offense.  They can pile it on in outbursts but seem to lack the professional clutch hitting necessary to win the close games.  This is one reason I, as well as others on TD, are suggesting trading Sano, despite all his power, in a trade to bring back a quality #1 pitcher.  I would rather see more consistent players like Gonzales and Arraez in the lineup than Sano.  With other power hitters, Sano's value might be more useful as bait in a big trade.  My idea to get Thor would be to add Gibson and Castro with Sano and some minor leaguers in a package deal.  Seems to me like a win-win for both teams, albeit risky, no doubt.

 

3. Dependence on Rogers is bound to boomerang over a long season.  Why Molitor wastes him with a four run lead in the ninth is totally mystifying.  May continues to be prone to give up the big hit at the most inopportune times, despite his stellar stats.  This narrative simply adds to the need for bringing in a shutdown closer sooner rather than later.  The Twins played well this weekend but could have squeezed the life out of an Indian's squad that was on the ropes in the 7th inning of Game 3.

 

I hope the FO looks at this team critically and uses the trade deadline to bolster a good team that is missing some essential cogs to elevate them to WS contention.  Go big or go home!!

 

 

[nicksaviking]

 

Bring up both Thorpe and Smeltzer for the second half push. Put both of them in the bullpen, with the option of using either for long-inning relief or as a spot starter. Smeltzer definitely looks like he can handle the pressure - he just goes out there and competes. Thorpe's first start looked just fine, and I have no trouble thinking he can get outs from the pen, too. Two good lefties, just waiting for a chance. 

 

After that, you've still got Poppen, Stewart, and Romero. Live arms, every one.

 

Oh, and don't let's forget Cody Stashak. Effective relief pitcher, seeks team with need for same. 

 

Don't sell the farm. Use the farm!

 

I'm Ok selling off the livestock, but agree with the Thorpe/Smeltzer/Stashak takes.

 

I'm a little worried that the Twins are going to find that the bullpen is all so perfectly mediocre that the decisions regarding it will be difficult to make. Rogers is the only guy who needs to be kept, but there's not any particular guy who's in imminent need of replacement.

[JW24]

As it pertains to Schoop, is there any chance the front office looks to deal him since there seems to be no reason to anticipate Schoop returning to the Twins next year? What kind of return could he fetch? (I would also be interested to read an article from the TD writers about the trade value of every guy on the roster).

 

I didn't have a chance to watch the game yesterday, but I have gotten the sense that Gibson is too dependent on his sinker the first time through the order, and does not throw his best pitch (slider) enough. I think he wants to try to save that look for the second trip through the order, but he needs to throw more sliders in my opinion.

 

Great weekly summary, again!

 

Edit: I didn't get to watch the game Friday either, when Gibson actually was pitching.

[MMMordabito]

Mr. Hands, I mean Max Kepler, sticking it to Bauer was awesome.  The self-proclaimed 2019 Cy Young award winner is going to be feasting on a whole murder of crow by season's end. Leading the league in only innings and hit batters doesn't typically result in Cy Young awards.  He may not even be top 10.

[yarnivek1972]

Nick, nice summary, as usual. A few comments on your comments:

 

1. In my blog on suggestions for a high profile trade for Syndergaard, I pointed out the glaring need for an ace, especially if we are to break a string of failures going back to 2002 in advancing beyond Rd. 1 of the playoffs. In a game that could have buried Cleveland for good, Berrios failed miserably. This follows a pattern in the last couple of years where he seems to wilt in pressure games. He is nowhere near an ace the Twins need!

 

2. I, too, am concerned about the team's all or nothing offense. They can pile it on in outbursts but seem to lack the professional clutch hitting necessary to win the close games. This is one reason I, as well as others on TD, are suggesting trading Sano, despite all his power, in a trade to bring back a quality #1 pitcher. I would rather see more consistent players like Gonzales and Arraez in the lineup than Sano. With other power hitters, Sano's value might be more useful as bait in a big trade. My idea to get Thor would be to add Gibson and Castro with Sano and some minor leaguers in a package deal. Seems to me like a win-win for both teams, albeit risky, no doubt.

 

3. Dependence on Rogers is bound to boomerang over a long season. Why Molitor wastes him with a four run lead in the ninth is totally mystifying. May continues to be prone to give up the big hit at the most inopportune times, despite his stellar stats. This narrative simply adds to the need for bringing in a shutdown closer sooner rather than later. The Twins played well this weekend but could have squeezed the life out of an Indian's squad that was on the ropes in the 7th inning of Game 3.

 

I hope the FO looks at this team critically and uses the trade deadline to bolster a good team that is missing some essential cogs to elevate them to WS contention. Go big or go home!!

1. He had a bad game. I wouldn’t say he’s “nowhere near” ace level. He’s close. He ranks 14th in fWAR in MLB, 7th in AL and top 30 in MLB in FIP. No one is calling him Max Scherzer, but he isn’t Lance Lynn either. Oh wait...

 

2. Why is any non-contending team going to trade for impending free agents Kyle Gibson and/or Jason Castro? To get a controllable ace caliber pitcher, a team needs to give up considerable controllable talent. Even Sano has only two more controllable season. Unless the minor leaguers you are adding are Lewis and Thorpe, It’s not going to even start a conversation.

 

3. Pretty much any reliever can make a bad pitch. By and large, May has been outstanding dating back to mid April. There aren’t that many out there that will be much better and the ones that are are the ones 10-12 teams are after. The Twins clearly need to cull the bottom 3 of the pen. But the top is pretty good.

[mikelink45]

My biggest worry is Rogers.  Can he handle the frequency of use for the rest of the season.  I know why Baldelli calls on him, but we either need Parker to step up or we need another pitcher we can rely on the way we do Rogers.  

 

I am fine with the idea of bringing up minor league arms, but we have to try them all, regardless of league level until we find what we need. 

[Trov]

 

As it pertains to Schoop, is there any chance the front office looks to deal him since there seems to be no reason to anticipate Schoop returning to the Twins next year? What kind of return could he fetch? (I would also be interested to read an article from the TD writers about the trade value of every guy on the roster).

 

 

Schoop has very little value in a trade.  2nd base is never a position of need for most teams and unless they are huge offensive upside they will not demand much.  If a contending team is looking to sell, who would want him?  Up and coming teams would not want him as no control and would need to resign him anyways, something they could do in offseason if they wanted to.  For contending teams not many would want to add him for the same reasons the Twins would deal him.  Plus what we would get is not much to help this year.  If he is dealt it would be to mid-level contending team that really needs something, and will give up at best a B level prospect.  

 

I predict he is either a throw in on a deal for money purposes, or he is released.  His numbers are reminding me of Trevor Plouffe in his big seasons with Twins, kills fastballs in blow out situations, but when pitcher really trying to bear down and get him, he will strike out. The only thing he has is his ability to hit HR, but I will never want him up when need runs. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Nick, nice summary, as usual.  A few comments on your comments:

 

1. In my blog on suggestions for a high profile trade for Syndergaard, I pointed out the glaring need for an ace, especially if we are to break a string of failures going back to 2002 in advancing beyond Rd. 1 of the playoffs.  In a game that could have buried Cleveland for good, Berrios failed miserably.  This follows a pattern in the last couple of years where he seems to wilt in pressure games.  He is nowhere near an ace the Twins need!

 

2. I, too, am concerned about the team's all or nothing offense.  They can pile it on in outbursts but seem to lack the professional clutch hitting necessary to win the close games.  This is one reason I, as well as others on TD, are suggesting trading Sano, despite all his power, in a trade to bring back a quality #1 pitcher.  I would rather see more consistent players like Gonzales and Arraez in the lineup than Sano.  With other power hitters, Sano's value might be more useful as bait in a big trade.  My idea to get Thor would be to add Gibson and Castro with Sano and some minor leaguers in a package deal.  Seems to me like a win-win for both teams, albeit risky, no doubt.

 

3. Dependence on Rogers is bound to boomerang over a long season.  Why Molitor wastes him with a four run lead in the ninth is totally mystifying.  May continues to be prone to give up the big hit at the most inopportune times, despite his stellar stats.  This narrative simply adds to the need for bringing in a shutdown closer sooner rather than later.  The Twins played well this weekend but could have squeezed the life out of an Indian's squad that was on the ropes in the 7th inning of Game 3.

 

I hope the FO looks at this team critically and uses the trade deadline to bolster a good team that is missing some essential cogs to elevate them to WS contention.  Go big or go home!!

 

Marwin Gonzalez is essentially Miguel Sano, except he has more defensive versatility, he doesn't strike out as much, and he has a lot less power.  In high leverage situations, Marwin has a .648 OPS and 80 wRC+; Sano is at .728 and 83.

 

Also, has anyone checked  in the offshore magnetic boot prison lately?  It would seem that one Rocco Baldelli might have had his visage stolen.

[Han Joelo]

 

Marwin Gonzalez is essentially Miguel Sano, except he has more defensive versatility, he doesn't strike out as much, and he has a lot less power.  In high leverage situations, Marwin has a .648 OPS and 80 wRC+; Sano is at .728 and 83.

 

Also, has anyone checked  in the offshore magnetic boot prison lately?  It would seem that one Rocco Baldelli might have had his visage stolen.

I gotta know what you're referencing here.

[Han Joelo]

Arraez and Schoop are practically polar opposites.  If you could somehow meld the two together, I think you'd have an MVP candidate.

[joefish]

I would offer to take Schoop on a long fishing excursion while you guys find a suitable 2b replacement. He cant seem to hit pitches in the strike zone right now so has has decided to try hitting the ones out of the strike zone instead. No luck there either. Futile.

[yarnivek1972]

I would offer to take Schoop on a long fishing excursion while you guys find a suitable 2b replacement. He cant seem to hit pitches in the strike zone right now so has has decided to try hitting the ones out of the strike zone instead. No luck there either. Futile.

I think the suitable replacement is Luis Arraez. The question is whether to commit to him now and risk losing the depth that keeping Schoop provides or wait until 2020 and shuttle Arraez up and down as needed.

[jorgenswest]

I think Schoop has more value to this team than Morin or Magill and if somehow all off the position players are healthy when Rosario and Cron return I would go with 12 pitchers and DFA Morin.

 

They made it through this Cleveland series using 11 pitchers. If they lose Morin, I have as much confidence in some of the pitchers in AAA.

 

Two factors might work against Arraez as the season progresses. He won’t likely sustain his plus .400 BABIP. Teams may adjust in both the way they pitch to him and shift (or not). He may endure some struggle that he has not encountered in the minors and it is hard to predict how he will handle the struggle.

[Tomj14]

 

I'm Ok selling off the livestock, but agree with the Thorpe/Smeltzer/Stashak takes.

 

I'm a little worried that the Twins are going to find that the bullpen is all so perfectly mediocre that the decisions regarding it will be difficult to make. Rogers is the only guy who needs to be kept, but there's not any particular guy who's in imminent need of replacement.

agreed, here is how I look at it. (in close games)

Who do I trust in the 8th and 9th inning - Rogers

Who do I trust in the 7th and 8th inning - Harper

Who do I trust in the 6th and 7th inning - May/Parker

Who do I trust in the 5th and 6th inning - Duffey/Littell

 

Which means Morin, Magill and everybody else needs to be replaced so there are more names in the 7th through 9th innings.

IMO

 

[h2oface]

With Rogers developing all that trade value, isn't it about time for the FO to make a trade for prospects with potential and up side that maybe just maybe might if we are really really lucky be someone like Rogers in 3 to 5 years? You know, like the Ryan Pressly deal?

 

Here's to a great second half, some fortifying trades, and a team that wins at least an average of 3 of 5 games, and doesn't turn into a .500 team for the second half, as seems to have happened the last month. 

[Nick Nelson]

 

agreed, here is how I look at it. (in close games)

Who do I trust in the 8th and 9th inning - Rogers

Who do I trust in the 7th and 8th inning - Harper

Who do I trust in the 6th and 7th inning - May/Parker

Who do I trust in the 5th and 6th inning - Duffey/Littell

May below Harper? And at the same level as Parker??        

[dbminn]

Great article, Nick. 

 

Trevor May has a chance to be the next Taylor Rogers. He could fail - he walks too many hitters to be a sure thing. But he has shown the stuff to be a shutdown RP. Add one experienced back-end bullpen guy, and they should be in good shape. Could add another middle reliever too.

 

Luis Arraez needs to get most of the reps at 2B. I don't say this lightly. Schoop is experienced, smart and a solid defender. OTOH, the Twins need someone getting on base, even if the opposing pitcher is really good. Arraez does that and he's only 22 years old. He doesn't seem overwhelmed by anything, so let's see what he can do. Love that he's turned on a few balls too. 

[Tomj14]

 

May below Harper? And at the same level as Parker??        

Harper has lower WHIP then May, higher WAR and has pitched more than May.

It was a stretch to find another pitcher I trust in the 8th inning, so in reality Harper belongs in the 6 and 7 inning with May and Parker belongs in the 5th and 6th with the others.

I am not as high on May as others, about every 4 - 5 games he gives up a run, which is why I don't like him pitching the 8th.

[Nick Nelson]

 

Harper has lower WHIP then May, higher WAR and has pitched more than May.

It was a stretch to find another pitcher I trust in the 8th inning, so in reality Harper belongs in the 6 and 7 inning with May and Parker belongs in the 5th and 6th with the others.

I am not as high on May as others, about every 4 - 5 games he gives up a run, which is why I don't like him pitching the 8th.

Giving up a run every fourth game (assuming 1IP appearances) equates to a 2.25 ERA so I might suggest your standards are a bit high. 

 

May is a legit setup man, esp if the control improvements we've seen of late are real. That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't add another but I'm not sure you're getting a much higher-caliber arm out there. 

[yarnivek1972]

Harper also has allowed a lot of inherited runners to score. Almost half. 13 of 29 to be exact. By far, the worst among pitchers on the roster. Trevor May has allowed 1 of 15 to score.

[Tomj14]

 

May below Harper? And at the same level as Parker??        

Yup!

[Tomj14]

 

May is a legit setup man, esp if the control improvements we've seen of late are real. That doesn't mean the Twins shouldn't add another but I'm not sure you're getting a much higher-caliber arm out there. 

Legit Set up guy with a 3.79, or if the control improves?

He is a 6th inning guy until he improves, sure he can pitch later in the game and will do good some of time, but not a guy I trust in a game the Twins need.

On this relief staff, he does look like a legit setup guy because they rest are terrible or not very good.

 

[Major League Ready]

 

May below Harper? And at the same level as Parker??        

 

Only stat where may is better than Harper is K/9.  May strikes out 1 more per 9 innings. May walks twice as many batters and his xFIP is 4.45 vs 3.83 for Harper.  May's WHIP is 1.24 vs 1.01 for Harper. For what it's worth Fangraphs has Harper at .7 WAR and May at .4 WAR. bWAR is .8 and .5 respectively.

 

Harper seems to be at least as valuable / reliable as May. Regardless of how you see it, I don't see the pointy of adding a RP that would not slot both of them.

[Vanimal46]

Not so fun stat:

 

Trevor May has 3 '1-2-3' innings since April. Not exactly what I would call a legit setup man.

Edited July 17, 2019 by Vanimal46

[Mr. Brooks]

If May hasn't figured it out by age 30, he likely never will.

I don't know why he continues to throw curveballs down the heart of the plate when he's up 0-2, but the fact is that he continues to do so. If he didn't learn his lesson by now, he likely never will.

There is simply no excuse whatsoever for attempting that pitch once, let alone twice in back to back appearances.

[USAFChief]

May below Harper? And at the same level as Parker??

Good call. May is worse than Parker.

 

My rankings:

 

Avian flu > Parker > May.