Trading From A Position of Strength

[terrydactyls]

Trade Deadline is Approaching!!!!!!

 

I've seen some articles suggesting trading prospects for pitching help and most say we can afford to do this now.  What I'm offering here is a breakdown of the top 40 Twins prospects who were broken down very recently at Twins Daily.  I've listed 39 of the 40 prospects by position (I skipped Arraez because he probably is going to stay with the Twins) and listed how many top 40 prospects are ahead of them on the list.  For example, Lamonte Wade Jr. has 8 players listed as outfielders ahead of him on the top 40 list.  Kohl Stewart has 10 RHP listed higher.  I'm not offering any judgments.  I'm just offering up some numerical data that hopefully shows where the Twins might be able to put together several packages of prospects to bring to the Twins some needed help.

 

Prospect   Prospect                 Pos          # Ranked 

  Rank                                                         Higher 

30          Lewis Diaz                  1B                  0

13          Ryan Jeffers                 C                  0

16          Ben Rortvedt                C                  1

20          Travis Blankenhorn      IF                  0

23          Jose Miranda               IF                  1

25          Yunior Severino           IF                   2

11           Lewis Thorpe          LHP                   0

21          Stephen Gonsalves LHP                   1

28          Matt Canterino         LHP                   2

29          Devin Smeltzer        LHP                   3

  2          Alex Kirilloff               OF                    0

  4          Trevor Larnach         OF                     1

  8          Brent Rooker            OF                     2

15          Matt Wallner             OF                     3

17          Akil Baddoo              OF                     4

19          Misael Urbina           OF                     5

26          Gilberto Celestino    OF                      6

27          Luke Raley               OF                     7

31          LaMonte Wade Jr     OF                     8

35         Jaylin Davis               OF                     9

36         Gabriel Maciel           OF                   10

39         Zander Wiel              OF                    11

  3         Brusdar Graterol    RHP                      0

  6         Jordan Balazovic   RHP                      1

  9         Jhoan Duran          RHP                      2

10         Blayne Enlow         RHP                      3

18         Jorge Alcala           RHP                      4

22         Zack Littell              RHP                      5

24         Edwar Colina          RHP                      6

32         Griffin Jax               RHP                      7

33         Tyler Wells              RHP                      8

34         Cole Sands             RHP                      9

37         Kohl Stewart           RHP                    10

38         Bailey Ober             RHP                    11

40         Sean Poppen          RHP                    12

  1         Royce Lewis              SS                      0

  5         Wander Javier           SS                      1

  7         Keoni Cavaco            SS                      2

12         Nick Gordon              SS                      3

 

I just spent a half hour formatting and editing this but when I post it, it looks like crap.  I hope you guys can figure out what I'm trying to do.

 

[AlwaysinModeration]

Love looking at the system this way, thanks for putting it together. If I were the GM, I would put the following ten guys, all between #8 and #23 on their prospect list, on the block as chips, and see what I can net in return:

 

13 Jeffers C

20 Blankenhorn 2B

23 Miranda 2B

11 Thorpe LHP

21 Gonsalves LHP

8 Rooker OF

17 Baddoo OF

10 Enlow RHP

18 Alcala RHP

12 Gordon SS

[AlwaysinModeration]

Another way of looking at it, is here are the eight guys I want the Twins to avoid trading, if at all possible:

 

14 Luis Arraez 2B

2 Alex Kirilloff OF

19 Misael Urbina OF

3 Brusdar Graterol RHP

6 Jordan Balazovic RHP

9 Jhoan Duran RHP

1 Royce Lewis SS

7 Keoni Cavaco SS

 

This means Larnach and Javier could be included on the trade chip list.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Interesting chart. Makes sense to me. Need to take into consideration that there is a need for 3 OF minimum per game. 2 C probably per every 3-4 games. All sorts of additional variables, such as the needs on the major league team.  Rule 5 eligibility also. 

[goulik]

The sheer number of AAA OF prospects and youth at MLB level tells me we should be very open to trading Outfielders.

[Thrylos]

I do agree with the approach.  You have to look who is signed long-term at the MLB level as well.  You have a SH SS (Polanco) and a LH throwing LH hitting OF (Kepler). 

 

You don't want to have many LH throwing LH hitting OFs in general and the Twins have a whole bunch.  So I'd pick one (Kirilloff) who might also move to first base also and try to keep him.  All the rest, (Cave, Wade & Co) should be available.  Larnach, Cabbage, and Blackenhorn (I treat all 3 as OF) throw right, but should probably be included in the equation.  There is only one power RH hitter in the high minors, Rooker, so I'd hate to loose him, esp. with Nelson, Schoop, and Cron likely not coming back in 2020.

As far as middle infielders go, Polanco and Arraez should be the Twins middle infield for their next 5 years of control.  So everyone above, let's say, A class, should be available.  Lewis is an exception, because I see him as a Centerfielder, and I would like to see what happens with Buxton long term.

 

I'd keep Diaz because there are not many first basemen in the organization (but they are easy to find as free agents/trades the offseason)

 

I am not convinced that the Twins have any top of the rotation starting prospects in their organization right now, so every pitcher should be available for an ace, esp. Gonsalves, and Graterol who seem to be perennially injured.

 

So, I'd rather not loose these four, but for the right trade that will bring controllable top of the rotation talent, I would not mind seeing them go.

 

The bottom line is that there are not too many chances to get to the post-season and once you get there you better be relevant, so the Twins have a chance this year and they better make it happen.  Whatever it takes.

[yarnivek1972]

Cruz is signed for next year at a lower salary than this year. Cron is not a free agent, he is arb eligible. I don’t see any reason why either would be let go.

[tvagle]

 

 

I just spent a half hour formatting and editing this but when I post it, it looks like crap.  I hope you guys can figure out what I'm trying to do.

 

Does this help?

 

 

[Twinsoholic]

Matt Canterino pitches right handed. He is not a southpaw. It would be nice if he was.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Does this help?

 

Excellent visual, that really makes it easy to peruse. Are the players highlighted in red what the Twins traded for Stroman and Giles, or is it the Bumgarner-Smith package?

[yarnivek1972]

Excellent visual, that really makes it easy to peruse. Are the players highlighted in red what the Twins traded for Stroman and Giles, or is it the Bumgarner-Smith package?

All the ones in red are currently on the IL I believe.

[old nurse]

The possibility of obtaining a player with 3 more years of control  that is a significant upgrade over what you have should make no prospect untouchable.

[tvagle]

Updated for wishful thinking on Canterino

 

Correct Red indicates currently on IL

 

Gold indicates Rule 5 Eligible this winter

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Another way of looking at it, is here are the eight guys I want the Twins to avoid trading, if at all possible:

14 Luis Arraez 2B
2 Alex Kirilloff OF
19 Misael Urbina OF
3 Brusdar Graterol RHP
6 Jordan Balazovic RHP
9 Jhoan Duran RHP
1 Royce Lewis SS
7 Keoni Cavaco SS

This means Larnach and Javier could be included on the trade chip list.

 

I was thinking the same thing as Thryos in terms of keeping Diaz. Nice replacement for Cron after next year.  I might add Davis to that list too. We don't have much for RH outfielders and he has been a beast this year. Nice 4th OFer at minimum. 

[jz7233]

 

I was thinking the same thing as Thryos in terms of keeping Diaz. Nice replacement for Cron after next year.  I might add Davis to that list too. We don't have much for RH outfielders and he has been a beast this year. Nice 4th OFer at minimum. 

I agree. I like Davis and Jax a lot. I think Jax really knows how to pitch. I would like to add him to that list along with Davis.

[Brandon]

A counter thought. I probably wouldn't be in a huge rush to trade Gordon just yet. We have Arreaz in 1rst place to replace Schoop. But after Arreaz we have Gordon and then Blankenship. We may also want to let that utility guy (I forgot his name) go as he goes over a 2 million salary next year. But if we get some great talent back then no one is off limits. Just thinking of how Gordon could be a minimum wage benefit to us next year.

[gunnarthor]

This is a bit strange for me, considering where I've been the last several years but I tend to think the Twins don't have great trading depth right now. Apparently Lewis, Kiriloff and Graterol are untouchable. After that, we have two more top 100 guys - Larnich,a 22 year old slugger in A+ ball, and Balazovic who looks like a stud but his upside is still probably a #3. 

 

After those two, the minors has been hit by injuries or disappointing play, or both. There's a lot of 45-50 FV depth but not a lot to really excite, say Toronto, to give us Stroman. 

 

For example, most of our OF depth looks to be future 4th OF types, not starting players. I think we'll probably be able to trade for some fungible relievers but nothing big.

 

Does anyone know if we're getting a bonus pick this year based on our size?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

This is a bit strange for me, considering where I've been the last several years but I tend to think the Twins don't have great trading depth right now. Apparently Lewis, Kiriloff and Graterol are untouchable. After that, we have two more top 100 guys - Larnich,a 22 year old slugger in A+ ball, and Balazovic who looks like a stud but his upside is still probably a #3. 

 

After those two, the minors has been hit by injuries or disappointing play, or both. There's a lot of 45-50 FV depth but not a lot to really excite, say Toronto, to give us Stroman. 

 

For example, most of our OF depth looks to be future 4th OF types, not starting players. I think we'll probably be able to trade for some fungible relievers but nothing big.

 

Does anyone know if we're getting a bonus pick this year based on our size?

I think to an extent it depends on what you're getting. I'd have no problems headlining a guy like Graterol (with others) for 3 years of Boyd. 

 

But yeah, I think a lot of our surplus guys will work well in picking up rental relievers. I wouldn't be shocked at all if one or more of Acala, Ralley, Stewart, Gonsalves, Davis, Jax, or Weil are traded. It will be hard to keep all of them on the 40 man this winter. They have some value, but they aren't netting you that ace. They're all complimentary pieces

 

I'd also add, but given how often Javier is hurt, I'd be more than willing to part with him if someone wants to bite on his upside. I don't think he's a risk to be lost if left unprotected this offseason given his struggles in A ball an injury history. Graterol is in a similar position in my opinion.  He's injured all too often. I'm not sure he should be untouchable (though I'd definitely want a high price for him).

[Jham]

I think to an extent it depends on what you're getting. I'd have no problems headlining a guy like Graterol (with others) for 3 years of Boyd.

 

But yeah, I think a lot of our surplus guys will work well in picking up rental relievers. I wouldn't be shocked at all if one or more of Acala, Ralley, Stewart, Gonsalves, Davis, Jax, or Weil are traded. It will be hard to keep all of them on the 40 man this winter. They have some value, but they aren't netting you that ace. They're all complimentary pieces

 

I'd also add, but given how often Javier is hurt, I'd be more than willing to part with him if someone wants to bite on his upside. I don't think he's a risk to be lost if left unprotected this offseason given his struggles in A ball an injury history. Graterol is in a similar position in my opinion. He's injured all too often. I'm not sure he should be untouchable (though I'd definitely want a high price for him).

No one wants to trade for guys they might have to immediately expose because a) they might lose what they just traded for, they may lose someone else they value to rule 5, and c) they may be able to claim them in a few months anyway.

 

The Twins have been guilty of hoarding middling prospects. Some guys need to be traded just top free up space. Don't see the Yankees fretting about the Tyler Austins and Jake Caves they're forced to move on from.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

No one wants to trade for guys they might have to immediately expose because a) they might lose what they just traded for, they may lose someone else they value to rule 5, and c) they may be able to claim them in a few months anyway.

The Twins have been guilty of hoarding middling prospects. Some guys need to be traded just top free up space. Don't see the Yankees fretting about the Tyler Austins and Jake Caves they're forced to move on from.

 

That really depends on what they have. Most of your sellers have plenty of chaff on the 40 man (just look at us a few years ago)... so moving someone off with some upside isn't a bad thing... Even sellers a long way off will take a 40 man guy that they can develop for a couple years and then flip for something more valuable.

 

So no, I don't think the near 40 man status will be that big of a deal. 

[Jham]

 

That really depends on what they have. Most of your sellers have plenty of chaff on the 40 man (just look at us a few years ago)... so moving someone off with some upside isn't a bad thing... Even sellers a long way off will take a 40 man guy that they can develop for a couple years and then flip for something more valuable.

 

So no, I don't think the near 40 man status will be that big of a deal. 

 

That really depends on what they have. Most of your sellers have plenty of chaff on the 40 man (just look at us a few years ago)... so moving someone off with some upside isn't a bad thing... Even sellers a long way off will take a 40 man guy that they can develop for a couple years and then flip for something more valuable.

 

So no, I don't think the near 40 man status will be that big of a deal. 

I dunno. I'm not talking about the Wander Javiers and guys that are for sure additions. But how valuable is someone like Luke Raley? He appears to be MLB ready, but there's almost no chance that he'll be added over Rooker or even Kiriloff at this point of the season, let alone jump Wade, Cave and Astudillo for playing time. Does he have any chance of being added after the season? Let's say we like him. What value does Wade or Cave or Astudillo have? Whether we trade for guys and need spots, or don't trade for guys and the season ends, we have guys that need to be moved or lost.