Article: How Much Will It Cost to Trade for Noah Syndergaard?

[Andrew Thares]

Over the past few weeks, we have been spending a lot of time focusing on the multitude of relievers that the Twins could acquire before the July 31st trade deadline, and rightfully so, since that is the biggest need on the team right now. However, that isn’t the only need the Minnesota Twins have, as they could also benefit by adding another arm at the top of the rotation to give them more firepower during a playoff push. One such guy that could be available to fit this role is New York Mets fireballer Noah Syndergaard.Adding an arm like Noah Syndergaard to the likes of Jose Berrios and Jake Odorizzi could give the Twins a formidable top of the rotation that will be scary for opposing teams to face in the postseason. Unfortunately, acquiring a pitcher like Syndergaard won’t be cheap, as the Mets are probably not too eager to move him, on top of the fact that if he does become available, nearly every team in the postseason hunt will be looking to acquire him. So, what would it take to land this stud pitcher? Let’s find out.

 

First, we will start by looking at what the Twins would be acquiring if they were to trade for Noah Syndergaard. At 26 years of age, Syndergaard is just now entering the prime of his career and would make a lot of sense to add in with this young Twins core. Syndergaard is currently making $6,000,000 in his second year of arbitration, but since he entered his first year of arbitration as a Super 2, Syndergaard won’t become a free agent until after the 2021 season, which gives the Twins 2 and 1/2 season of team control. This could factor in huge for the Twins this offseason, as the only two pitchers in the current rotation they have coming back next year are Jose Berrios and Martin Perez (if they pick up Perez’s $7,500,000 team option).

 

After making his MLB debut in 2015, Noah Syndergaard quickly established himself as one of the premier starting pitchers in the game. His 100 MPH fastball electrified fans, and his result were nothing short of stellar. However, Syndergaard suffered a setback in 2017 when he torn his right latissimus muscle just a month into the season, causing him to be out for nearly five months. Syndergaard bounced back well from his injury in 2018, posting a 3.03 ERA (2.80 FIP) in 154 and 1/3 innings. 2019 hasn’t quite been the same story for Syndergaard, as he has a 4.55 ERA (3.62 FIP) in 95 innings. The worrisome part for Syndergaard is his strikeout rate has dipped slightly since the injury. Prior to the injury, Syndergaard had a 28.4% strikeout rate (which ranked sixth among starting pitchers with at least 200 IP over that timeframe). Since the injury, however, Syndergaard has a strikeout rate of 23.9% (which ranks 42nd among starting pitchers with at least 200 IP over that timeframe). Syndergaard’s fastball velocity has dipped a tick too, though it still remains among the fastest in baseball. In 2016 and 2017, Syndergaard averaged 98.6 MPH on his fastball. In the two years since, Syndergaard's fastball has averaged 97.6 MPH. Additionally, Syndergaard has been on the IL since June 15th with a hamstring strain but is expected to be back and in the starting rotation on Sunday.

 

Trade Comparisons

 

A good place to start to figure out what it might cost to acquire Noah Syndergaard is by looking at some other trades for big-name starting pitchers with multiple years of control over recent years. We can start by looking at the Chris Archer trade. As many of you remember, the Twins were looking to trade for Archer before the 2018 season, yet luckily for them they didn’t because the Pittsburgh Pirates gave up an arm and a leg to get him. The headliners they sent back to the Tampa Bay Rays were Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows, both of whom were elite prospects who had just graduated to the MLB ranks. They also included right-hander Shane Baz, who at the time was the 95th ranked prospect in baseball, per MLB.com. At the time everyone said the Pirates gave up way too much for Archer, and in the year since looks like it might be one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history. I would be shocked if the Mets get anywhere close to that good of an offer for Syndergaard.

 

Another trade in recent years to compare to is the Jose Quintana trade in 2017. At the time, Quintana was under contract for 3 1/2 more years at a very team friendly rate. To acquire Quintana from the Chicago White Sox, the Chicago Cubs gave up each of their top two prospects: Eloy Jimenez, who at the time was a top-10 prospect in baseball, along with Dylan Cease, who is one now of the top ranked prospects in baseball, and knocking on the MLB door. The Cubs also gave up two lower-tier prospects.

 

At the times of their deals, both Archer and Quintana were similar pitchers in skill level to where Noah Syndergaard is now: not quite dominant aces, but good enough to be the number one starter on a team lacking an ace. Archer and Quintana both also had an additional year of control than Syndergaard would come with, and neither had quite the injury concerns that Syndergaard has.

 

A couple other deals you can look at recently are the trades involving Chris Sale and Gerrit Cole. Though, it’s a little hard to compare a trade for Syndergaard with the Chris Sale trade since Syndergaard isn’t quite the same level pitcher Sale was at the time of that trade. The Gerrit Cole trade is also a little difficult to compare to, as the Astros traded away a bunch of players who were already MLB ready with relatively low upside. As we stand, it is hard to imaging the Twins trading away many MLB ready players with years of team control, unless they look to move someone like Luis Arraez, though I would be surprised if the Twins are at all interested in moving Arraez at this point.

 

Building a Package

 

If the Twins want to build a package to acquire Noah Syndergaard, it will almost certainly have to include either Royce Lewis or Alex Kirilloff. They could potentially try to build a package around Brusdar Graterol, but with him being shelved for over a month now with a shoulder injury, I can’t see the Mets willing to give up their prized pitcher for another pitcher with some shoulder issues. That being said, I’m sure many of you would like to see what a package not involving Lewis or Kirilloff would look like, so I will put one together for argument's sake.

 

Disclaimer: I am not necessarily saying I would be willing to offer these deals for Syndergaard, this is simply an exercise examine what it might take to acquire Syndergaard.

 

Let’s start by looking at a deal around former first overall draft pick Royce Lewis. There was a point earlier this year where Lewis was in the conversation for top prospect in baseball after players like Vlad Guerrero Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., and the previously mentioned Eloy Jimenez graduated from the prospect rankings. However, a slow start to the season has brought Lewis’s value down a tick. For many Twins fans, a straight up trade Lewis for Syndergaard might be enough (or even too much), but I am here to tell you, that will not be the case. The Mets will most likely require at least one or two mid-to-lower level prospects in addition to Lewis to cover the risk in case he becomes a bust.

 

Offer: Royce Lewis, Jorge Alcala & Chris Williams

 

If the Twins are unwilling to part ways with Royce Lewis, they next place the Mets will turn to is Alex Kirilloff. If a deal were to get done, I see this as the most likely scenario. Kirilloff is without question the best hitting prospect in the Twins system and is arguably the best hitting prospect in the minor leagues right now period. He has had a slow start to 2019, but his bat should still be considered to be plus-plus. Where Kirilloff loses some value is on the defensive side of the ball. It is starting to look more and more that Kiriloff is destined to be either a slightly below-average corner outfielder, or a fulltime first-baseman. If the Twins deal for Syndergaard were to revolve around Kiriloff, they will most likely have to include another top tier prospect in order to get the deal done.

 

Offer: Alex Kirilloff, Jordan Balazovic & Nick Gordon

 

As I mentioned previously, it is unlikely that the Twins get a deal done without trading away either Lewis or Kirilloff, but If the Twins are dead set on not trading away either of those two, but still want to pursue a deal for Syndergaard, it is going to take a large haul of prospects. Fortunately for the Twins, they have a few other top tier prospects in their system, including three players in Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach and Jordan Balazovic who are all currently ranked as Top 100 Prospects by both Baseball America and MLB.com. Asking the Twins to give up all three of these players will be a tall task, but that might be just what it takes if they want to pry Noah Syndergaard away from the Mets, who will without question be receiving offers from other teams that include a prospect or two that are more revered than any of these three.

 

Offer: Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, Jordan Balazovic & Ben Rortvedt

 

All three of these offers seem like they would be giving up a lot of prospect capital, but that is the nature of trading for All-Star starting pitchers with multiple years of team control. If you want to acquire them, it is going to cost you a lot. Let us know in the comments below what you think. Would you be willing to trade for Noah Syndergaard, and if so, what kind of package would you put together to trade for him?

 

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[Thrylos]

It will probably take Lewis and Kirilloff and one pitcher, but that will be fine.   The Polanco and Kepler extensions took care of the starting SS and the LH hitting and throwing OF positions for 5 years.

 

Sell high...

[Andrew Thares]

 

It will probably take Lewis and Kirilloff and one pitcher, but that will be fine.   The Polanco and Kepler extensions took care of the starting SS and the LH hitting and throwing OF positions for 5 years.

 

Sell high...

I was thinking that too, and I would assume the Mets would start negotiations with that. However, I just don't see the Twins actually trading both players for a pitcher who's not the same guy he was a couple years ago. So I stuck to offers that only included one or the other (on neither for the hell of it), which seems like a more realistic possibility.

[D.C Twins]

 

It will probably take Lewis and Kirilloff and one pitcher, but that will be fine.   The Polanco and Kepler extensions took care of the starting SS and the LH hitting and throwing OF positions for 5 years.

 

Sell high...

 

Yep... I'd like to keep our young pitchers. For a trade scenario... if you wouldn't come away both excited AND a little sick to your stomach, it probably isn't realistic.

 

I agree that likely both Lewis and Kirillof would be needed. But if the scouts say his stuff will play at 1a or 1b level right now.... I'd think looooong and haaaard about it.

[jimbo92107]

Graterol, Larnach, Thorpe and Gordon. Two good pitchers and two good position players. And this chair. And this lamp. But I'm keeping the table. 

[nater79a]

Pass on Thor.  Too injury prone as far as I'm concerned.

How many starts will he miss over 2 1/2 years?

[Dantes929]

 

It will probably take Lewis and Kirilloff and one pitcher, but that will be fine.   The Polanco and Kepler extensions took care of the starting SS and the LH hitting and throwing OF positions for 5 years.

 

Sell high...

Time will tell but how is that selling high?   To me its selling low and  buying high.   Chris Archer is a great comparison (or Yu Darvish).   He would probably be our 5th starter right now and with Pineda trending he would just be depth in another month.    Probably the same with Syndergaard.    Anyone read about the 4.55 ERA (NL bhw), the injuries, the reduced strikeout rate, the drop in velocity.    How are Syndergaard, Archer or Quintana aces on any team based on how they have pitched this season?     Not quite the same level as Sale?  He's not quite the same level as the level (or two) below Sale.   All star starting pitcher?    He was #8 in the Cy Young that year and that was 2016.   Not an all star last year and definitely not this year.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I would do the first trade you propose, Andrew, but not either of the second or third, due to the inclusion of Balazovic. I’d do the jimbo offer (Brusdar/Larnach/Thorpe/Gordon), but that would probably be the most painful.

 

Here’s one more suggestion:

 

Brusdar/Javier/Gordon/Enlow.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Although my proposal included two MI.

 

How about instead:

Brusdar/Javier/Jeffers/Enlow (Or Smeltzer)

 

Or

 

Brusdar/Duran/Arraez/Wade

 

I think it would be possible to get Thor without giving up Lewis or Kirilloff. The Twins system is quite deep, and if you come up with 4 players who are top to mid, I would have to think it would be a pretty attractive package.

 

I don’t think this would get it done, but what about a package of players who have already debuted with the Twins?

 

Romero/Arraez/Smeltzer/Tortuga/Wade

[old nurse]

Look hard and see what you are buying and selling. Houston gave up really nothing to get Verlander and Cole. Sale could have been considered stolen at this point.

Archer was bought high with two prospects that worked out. Sell every player on the team if you can make that kind of trade.

Which prospects does a team trade. The ones that other teams value more than you do. Prospects from a position of strength,  The ones who will not be future all stars.

 

 

[SarasotaBill]

I want no part of anything close to the Archer deal.

Every Twins fan would regret the trade next year and probably this year.

Archer and Syndergaard are over rated.

[Eris]

From the Mets, Zack Wheeler may be a more suitable trade target. His stats are slightly better than Thor’s. Because Wheeler is a free agent at the end of the season, he may be available for Gordon.

 

The comparisons to a Chris Archer trade seem quite suitable for Syndergaard. As mentioned by other TD members above, he has a 4.55 ERA, all his peripherals are at career worsts and he is the third best pitcher on the Mets. Yet, he is treated like an Ace. So unless the Twins staff has identified a delivery flaw that can be corrected, I would stay away from Thor.

[Aerodeliria]

I don't want to give up four players for Syndergaard. They can keep him for that price. He is an extremely high risk because of injury and recent performance. He's already been on the shelf twice (at least) this season. I think we'd be buying a mirage. The Mets were supposed to be competing for the division crown; I'm sure they were hoping for 10 wins be from Syndergaard at the break.

 

To me, the odds that it's Yu Darvish all over again are extremely high IMHO. I'd consider some risk but not that much.

[diehardtwinsfan]

My problem with Thor is that you're paying a pretty hefty price for past performance. He's not been that good this year. I suppose it could be a bit of rust coming back from the injury, but buying him isn't putting an arm at the top of that rotation. It's putting a name at the top of the rotation... 

 

That doesn't mean it's a bad buy, as I have more faith in his ability to regain that form than others, but I'm not sure helps the team NOW and you paid a high prospect capital to get him. 

 

Also of note, Glasnow had definitely lost a lot of shine when he was traded for Archer. Former top 50 prospect who had tried and failed several times to crack the Pirate's rotation. If I remember correct, he was out of options too, so they couldn't stash him in the minors anymore and so it was easy to let Tampa finish developing him.

[MN>FL]

It will almost definitely have to include Lewis. There was a new site launched this week and discussed on a recent Fangraphs podcast. It built an value system for all players to help develop a fair trade. It is remarkably accurate.

 

www.baseballtradevalues.com

 

Based on the site, Lewis/Rooker/Arraez should get it done. 

 

[jorgenswest]

It is Kirilloff and Lewis that sets the Twins apart from some of the competition. Having more depth in 40-45 prospects (fangraphs value) doesn’t matter in the trade market. Everyone has enough of those prospects to put together a package. The Twins have the headliner for a package if they choose to use those assets.

[highlander]

Do not include Arraez! Not really interested in a starter either. Use Kirilloff or Larnach to pry Vasquez and/or Iglesias to the Twins. A Big Bad Bull in the back of the pen with multiple years of team control could make the Twins a jaugurnaught. This pushes the Twins present relief pitches up an inning or two. It also makes the rotation stronger.

[Riverbrian]

It will almost definitely have to include Lewis. There was a new site launched this week and discussed on a recent Fangraphs podcast. It built an value system for all players to help develop a fair trade. It is remarkably accurate.

 

www.baseballtradevalues.com

 

Based on the site, Lewis/Rooker/Arraez should get it done.

 

I don’t know if this is accurate or not. Regardless... I will be spending a lot of time playing with it. Thank You

[rdehring]

Any trade that requires any of Lewis, Graterol, Kirilloff or Balazovic, my answer is no.  Probably means the trade including one of the above will happen tomorrow.

 

But I do doubt something like this will happen.  The reason is that even though this team is on fire, I think Management believes they are still building towards a future a few years out.

Edited June 30, 2019 by rdehring

[terrydactyls]

It will almost definitely have to include Lewis. There was a new site launched this week and discussed on a recent Fangraphs podcast. It built an value system for all players to help develop a fair trade. It is remarkably accurate.

 

www.baseballtradevalues.com

 

Based on the site, Lewis/Rooker/Arraez should get it done.

 

If this site is only a week old, how can it be considered "remarkably accurate?"

[nicksaviking]

Glasnow and Meadows weren’t elite prospects when traded, both had lost their shine, Glasnow in particular.

[bighat]

For those that don't want to include Lewis or Kiriloff - here's your third choice: Yankees win the ALDS matchup 3 games to 1.

 

It sucks to lose guys we've hoped to see in a Twins uniform but maybe their best contribution they can make would be as trade pieces.

 

What if the Twins would have traded Sano for Max Scherzer a few years back?

 

Remember that no prospects are sure things, no matter how high they're ranked.

[Squirrel]

 

Any trade that requires any of Lewis, Graterol, Kirilloff or Balazovic, my answer is no.  Probably means the trade including one of the above will happen tomorrow.

 

But I do doubt something like this will happen.  The reason is that even though this team is on fire, I think Management believes they are still building towards a future a few years out.

I'm willing to trade one of those in a deal for Syndegaard ... but not two of those. I'd do two of those for someone else named Scherzer, but the Nats aren't dealing him for anyone.

[goulik]

What if we offered Sano, Wade, Rooker, Gonsalves?

[Mr. Brooks]

For those that don't want to include Lewis or Kiriloff - here's your third choice: Yankees win the ALDS matchup 3 games to 1.

 

It sucks to lose guys we've hoped to see in a Twins uniform but maybe their best contribution they can make would be as trade pieces.

 

What if the Twins would have traded Sano for Max Scherzer a few years back?

 

Remember that no prospects are sure things, no matter how high they're ranked.

And what if, instead of Sano, they'd traded Berrios, Kepler and Polanco for Scherzer?

It goes both ways. Most prospects don't become stars, but at the same time, most stars were once prospects.

I'm not saying never trade good prospects, but you do have to be careful that you keep a pipeline open to develop future stars.

[gunnarthor]

I'd trade for Thor and I would include one of Lewis/Kiriloff but not both. But that might be enough. He's got lots of cheap years of control left so they'll want a Sale like return. Which they won't get but if I was them, I'd start by asking for Lewis, Kiriloff, Rortvedt and Dhuran or such. I'm not sure the Twins would feel comfortable making such a big 'win-now' trade.

 

Also think the Twins should also focus on talented pitchers who have lost their shine but that the Twins might be able to fix - Dylan Bundy is #1 on that list for me.

[Mr. Brooks]

What if we offered Sano, Wade, Rooker, Gonsalves?

I don't think the Mets would even consider that.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I’m keeping Lewis but willing to part with Kirilloff, Graterol, and another low minor arm (though there are some minors pitchers I would prefer to keep).

 

I have very little to base this on, but my gut tells me that insiders do not have Kirilloff rated as high as the national list makers do.

[Riverbrian]

For those that don't want to include Lewis or Kiriloff - here's your third choice: Yankees win the ALDS matchup 3 games to 1.

 

It sucks to lose guys we've hoped to see in a Twins uniform but maybe their best contribution they can make would be as trade pieces.

 

What if the Twins would have traded Sano for Max Scherzer a few years back?

 

Remember that no prospects are sure things, no matter how high they're ranked.

Agreed... and in addition to that.

 

The players you trade for prospects are not sure things either.

[Bavarian]

To those who keep bringing up Scherzer, it ain't happening.  He's so beloved in Washington and they'd be done without him.  They took a bit of a PR hit by letting Harper go.  This would be crushing.  Besides, they aren't rebuilding.  They are in win now mode and would be 10-15 games above .500 if they didn't have the worst bullpen in baseball.  They have a good team and are just a piece or two away from taking the next step.  

 

As for Syndegaard, it's a precarious trade.  I lean toward staying away.  We have the trade capital and it wouldn't hurt too much with how things have developed but I just don't see the likelihood that he's a sure thing down the road.  I could live with such a trade but feel wary about it.

 

Has anyone mentioned Andrew Cashner here?  He's been really good and had a decent few years in Houston as well.  Wouldn't be exorbitant in cost and is pitching better than both Syndegaard and Bumgarner this year.