Article: Taking a Deeper Dive into Miguel Sano's Plate Discipline

[bighat]

 

In and of itself, the strikeout is no worse than any other out.

 

When the bases are loaded with 1 out, a strikeout is the worst out. When there's a man on 3rd with 1 out, a strikeout is worse than most other outs. I can go on and on. Strikeouts are indeed worse than other outs, in many cases.

 

You have to take into account that the Twins were cruising WITHOUT Sano this year. The Twins also will have other options at 3rd: Gonzalez, Astudillo, Adrianza and even Arraez.

 

This is not a season where the Twins can just let a guy go and figure things out for a season while we rebuild. This is a team that needs to win the division and can realistically compete for a WS title.

 

Sano is a beloved player by many of us and we all want him to succeed. But we can't all just sit around and be Pollyannas about everything just because he's wearing a Twins jersey. He's got issues and striking out 40% of the time shows it.

 

 

 

 

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

When the bases are loaded with 1 out, a strikeout is the worst out. When there's a man on 3rd with 1 out, a strikeout is worse than most other outs. I can go on and on. Strikeouts are indeed worse than other outs, in many cases.

 

Wait, wha?

[bighat]

 

Wait, wha?

 

A sacrifice fly is much better way to make an out than striking out.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

A sacrifice fly is much better way to make an out than striking out.

 

That isn't what you said - you said the strikeout is the worst out possible with bases loaded and 1 out. Which, you know, isn't accurate. At all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That isn't what you said - you said the strikeout is the worst out possible with bases loaded and 1 out. Which, you know, isn't accurate. At all.

Pretty sure he meant no outs, in which case a strikeout is definitely the worst kind of out.

 

Either way, it doesn't really matter because forest > tree.

[bighat]

 

That isn't what you said - you said the strikeout is the worst out possible with bases loaded and 1 out. Which, you know, isn't accurate. At all.

 

Right, grounding into a double play or lining into a double play is worse. But we can't assume a double play, as the old saying goes.

 

Point to you though, you got me. So did you understand my point? Striking out isn't "just like any other out". Striking out can be bad. Striking out is worse than outs which move runners over or get runners home.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This hasn't aged well.

This entire thread is aging like fine wine.

[USAFChief]

 

That isn't what you said - you said the strikeout is the worst out possible with bases loaded and 1 out. Which, you know, isn't accurate. At all.

Let's take 1000 of those situations.

 

Your team strikes out 1000 times.

 

My team hits 1000 ground balls.

 

Deal?

[SpicyGarvSauce]

 

Let's take 1000 of those situations.

 

Your team strikes out 1000 times.

 

My team hits 1000 ground balls.

 

Deal?

 

Ground balls are evil.

[the_brute_squad]

 

Roughly a week ago the discussion surrounding Miguel Sano was in relation to his strikeouts. Now operating at a 39.2% strikeout rate, the trips back to the dugouts remain inconsequential to me. The issue with his production profile revolves almost entirely on plate discipline. I touched on this in passing during that piece, but there’s a more nuanced conversation to be had here.During the Twins 17-inning affair with the Boston Red Sox, Sano went 0-for-7 with five strikeouts. He came up in multiple big spots and simply couldn’t put the ball in play. It’s one thing to be fanning on pitches in the upper 90’s, but he was swinging through fastballs topping out below 95 mph. For a guy like Sano, bat speed isn’t the issue, but he certainly could be playing a literal guessing game.

First the good news. Although Sano’s strikeout rate is fourth highest in the majors among players with at least 100 plate appearances, he also owns the sixth best hard-hit rate (52.0%) in baseball. Because he doesn’t put the baseball on the ground, and crushes it when he makes contact, the 30.4% HR/FB rate is 11th in the majors. From this we can deduce that when the ball is put in play, good things happen.

Now the bad news. Steadily climbing since his debut season, Sano’s 33.7% chase rate is a career worst and his 19.2% whiff rate follows suit. With that mix you get an obvious combination detrimental to contact rates, resulting in just a 62.5% output. To summarize this bit of information we can understand that Miguel is expanding the zone, giving himself less opportunity to hit the ball hard, and finding himself behind in counts more frequently.

Download attachment: chart.jpeg
As Sano has shown a willingness to expand, chase, and guess through at-bats, opposing pitchers have exposed him in the most inopportune moments. Coming up in high leverage situations, he’s got a .167/.250/.333 slash line across 20 plate appearances. That’s certainly a small sample size, but the reality is a lack of plate discipline is most exposed when pitchers need to exploit batter tendencies attempting to work around damage.

There are two trains of thought here that can provide some reason for hope. One is that Sano went without spring training and is still settling in. Teammate Marwin Gonzalez started with a .191/.262/.277 slash line across his first 100+ plate appearances this season. Sano is 103 PA in and owns a .225/.314/.539 slash line. Since settling in Marwin has been among the Twins best hitters, so once Sano gets acclimated an uptick may be coming.

Another avenue to venture down is the sustainability of a split like this. Three true outcomes players exist, but many of them fail to produce at a high level for any significant amount of time. Joey Gallo has certainly transformed himself into one of the best players in the game, and he’s done that by being something like the 100th percentile of Miguel Sano. Gallo’s 57.9% hard hit rate is the best in baseball while his 43.6% HR/FB mark is second. He’s putting up both of those outcomes alongside a 35.5 K%, just three spots behind Sano.

So, what’s the difference then?

The third outcome for Gallo, walk rate, is nearly double that (19.6%) of Sano’s (11.8%). He whiffs plenty at 15.1% (down 3% from 2018), and he actually makes contact less often (61.8%), but he chases significantly less. The Rangers star swings out of the zone just 22.8% of the time (10% drop from 2018). By forcing pitchers into the zone, he’s barreling hittable pitches with a powerful swing almost every time the two objects connect. Joey Gallo forces the opposing hurler to pitch to him, while Miguel Sano allows the opponent simply to throw.

James Rowson has a moldable piece of clay in front of him, and if the weight loss is any indication, this is the first time in a while that Sano may be a willing student. Figuring out how to get rid the check swings, hold off on the offerings well out of the zone, and commit every time the bat goes through the zone is an absolute must. Sano’s best season came with a 25.2% chase rate and a 15.7% whiff rate. He’s not far from those benchmarks, but it will take work and focus to get there.

Once again, I’m willing to suggest I could care less that Miguel Sano strikes out. In and of itself, the strikeout is no worse than any other out. What I do care about is that a guy whose entire value is derived from plate production, figures out how to read pitches, work counts, and commit to attacking the ball with a swing destined to produce results.

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Great read and well done with the numbers. The only disagreement I have is you stating the strikeout is no worse than any other out. Making contact with runners in scoring position is very consequential. RBI's don't come from swinging at a low and away slider. Also, his hard hit ball ratio can make it difficult for defenses to defend. Errors are a part of the game and Sano takes the possibility away 40% of the time. There is a consequence to making contact and with his power it has a great chance in leading to something good.

[Nine of twelve]

 

1B/DH that hit 25 HR's and strike out all the time aren't valuable. 

As of now he has hit 12 HR in 33 games played. If he plays 120 games that translates to 43 HR. That is valuable.

[jz7233]

 

When the bases are loaded with 1 out, a strikeout is the worst out. When there's a man on 3rd with 1 out, a strikeout is worse than most other outs. I can go on and on. Strikeouts are indeed worse than other outs, in many cases.

 

You have to take into account that the Twins were cruising WITHOUT Sano this year. The Twins also will have other options at 3rd: Gonzalez, Astudillo, Adrianza and even Arraez.

 

This is not a season where the Twins can just let a guy go and figure things out for a season while we rebuild. This is a team that needs to win the division and can realistically compete for a WS title.

 

Sano is a beloved player by many of us and we all want him to succeed. But we can't all just sit around and be Pollyannas about everything just because he's wearing a Twins jersey. He's got issues and striking out 40% of the time shows it.

Strikeout is the second worst out in that situation. HIDP would be the worst out. It would end the inning.

[jz7233]

 

As of now he has hit 12 HR in 33 games played. If he plays 120 games that translates to 43 HR. That is valuable.

If he keeps hitting those dingers and draws some walks, I would care less about the strikeouts since he's always a threat in the lineup.

[Badsmerf]

Is he still hitting the balls on the outer half, or had he adjusted and taking advantage of balls elsewhere? Heatmap of the last several days?

[yarnivek1972]

As of now he has hit 12 HR in 33 games played. If he plays 120 games that translates to 43 HR. That is valuable.

It is worth noting that Sano has never played 120 games at the MLB level in a season. Nor will he do so this year. Indeed, he has never started even 80 games in the field in a season. He would need to start more than 50 of the Twins remaining games at a position to do that in 2019. He might. Personally, I doubt it. His size puts him at a higher risk for injury than players without the extra pounds.

[Squirrel]

It is worth noting that Sano has never played 120 games at the MLB level in a season. Nor will he do so this year. Indeed, he has never started even 80 games in the field in a season. He would need to start more than 50 of the Twins remaining games at a position to do that in 2019. He might. Personally, I doubt it. His size puts him at a higher risk for injury than players without the extra pounds.

I don’t think the poster was suggesting that Sano should or will play in that many games ... was just pointing out that he’s hitting homeruns and the ratio to games played is pretty good. If he keeps it up.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

As of now he has hit 12 HR in 33 games played. If he plays 120 games that translates to 43 HR. That is valuable.

 

It is, the problem is that it would come with something ridiculous like 20 singles, 60 walks, and half million strike outs.

 

I'm exaggerating obviously. Sano's problem is that outside of those 43 home runs, he's not been productive at all. I'm hoping the last couple days is a sign of the future, but right now, I don't even want to see him hitting HRs as much as some multi-hit games with no Ks.

[Nine of twelve]

 

It is, the problem is that it would come with something ridiculous like 20 singles, 60 walks, and half million strike outs.

 

I'm exaggerating obviously. Sano's problem is that outside of those 43 home runs, he's not been productive at all. I'm hoping the last couple days is a sign of the future, but right now, I don't even want to see him hitting HRs as much as some multi-hit games with no Ks.

You're saying that if you eliminate the productive part of his game he's not productive. Okay.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You're saying that if you eliminate the productive part of his game he's not productive. Okay.

 

No, I'm saying that even if he manages to maintain a 43 HR pace (which I doubt given his current habits) that he's providing zero production outside of that regardless of whatever his HR total or OPS says. He's going to get exploited by better pitchers, and that's especially true in the playoffs. 

 

The guy has the power to shorten his swing in pitchers count and still hit home runs. He's throwing that away swinging for the fences on every pitch and swinging for the fences on pitches outside of the zone. I would like to see him start to look a lot more like Nelson Cruz when he steps to the plate. They guy could be a perennial MVP candidate if he did.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Seeing Sano rip a bunch of homers is great, but I want to see him do it over a prolonged period of time against a team with both good pitching and an analytic approach.

 

As we saw against Boston, I'm pretty worried about an analytic-forward team dismantling Sano in the postseason without even trying very hard.

 

He needs to make more contact, particularly on fastballs high in the zone. He doesn't even need to hit them fair, just foul them off often enough to stay alive in the plate appearance.

 

I never expect the guy to strike out less than 30% of the time and that's okay, but he needs to make more contact.

[jorgenswest]

Intriguing article in the Athletic about how they are working with Sano to manage the upper half of the strike zone. Simplistically his hands start higher.

 

Maybe we are seeing some of the fruits of that work. We also might have seen the cost of trying to make the change in his really poor stretch. Change often comes with a drop before growth.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Intriguing article in the Athletic about how they are working with Sano to manage the upper half of the strike zone. Simplistically his hands start higher.

Maybe we are seeing some of the fruits of that work. We also might have seen the cost of trying to make the change in his really poor stretch. Change often comes with a drop before growth.

Very good points, though I think the change is likely the result of the Boston series and the change had not be implemented at that point. Sano was just too vulnerable to high fastballs in that series for me to believe he was already working on fixing it.

 

Anyway, great to hear the team is working on it (of course they are, still good to hear it, though).

[Linus]

I think I see signs of progress. He is laying off pitches out of the zone lately and his swing looks a little more compact. Similarly even though he had an o fer I thought Buxton had a good day at the plate. He didn’t chase at all - swung at nothing but strikes

[Soft Tosser]

Don't know if he'll ever be great at strike recognition, but I think he's a bit behind of the other hitters on the club because he got such a late start due to his injury rehab. Personally, I think a big reason for the success of our hitting this year is the coaching staff. Scouting of opposing pitchers has been outstanding, getting keys to what to look for and such. Strangely, maybe Wes Johnson has had just as positive effect on our hitters as he has on our pitchers.

[Vanimal46]

[Platoon]

Let's take 1000 of those situations.

 

Your team strikes out 1000 times.

 

My team hits 1000 ground balls.

 

Deal?

Can I TRIPLE like this? Let's put the shoe on the other feet. The hated Sox, fill in your color, have someone on third with one, or no outs. Our beloved Dick/Bert surmise for all to hear that our esteemed hurler desperately needs a K. They don't say he needs a GB to the SS playing back. Or a fly ball. The only other option is an IF pop up. Yes a bases loaded DP is wonderful, but if the hitter struck the ball, it won't necessarily go to an IF's mitt. But a SO will go to the catchers mitt!

[Platoon]

Maybe some of the Twins hitting success can be attributed to hitting your pitch when you see it. If someone is sitting behind you constantly telling you to take a few pitches, your pitch may be gone by then. Being an agressive hitte is not synonymous with being a stupid hitter. Take a walk if you get one, hit your,pitch if it shows up, no matter the count!

[Squirrel]

 

This what I said above. I don't think it's a matter of knowing what to and not to swing at. That doesn't seem to be the issue ... which is why I suggested something so stupidly simplistic as 'maybe he needs glasses.' He's not making contact. Maybe he's closing his eyes when he swings? Yeah, more simplisticly stupid. I just don't know. However ... if what's been happening over this weekend continues, then yeah, they obviously worked on something, or something is finally clicking after missing a few months. But what Brock said above ... I want to see this over a prolonged period of time ... not just against a team like the White Sox. Let's see how he handles Giolito today.

[Squirrel]

Well, so much for seeing Sano hot against Giolito. Maybe he’ll come in off the bench. Actually, I hope that isn’t necessary.