Article: Potential Prospect Cost in Twins Trades

[Ted Schwerzler]

As we move closer to July, we also push towards the looming Major League Baseball trade deadline. With the waiver period being removed in 2019, the July 31st deadline is a hard cap on all player acquisition. There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins need to find some pitching help, and the assumption is that the answers will come in the form of a “when” as opposed to an “if.” As names circulate from an acquisition standpoint, it’s fair to wonder what the cost may be.From the outset I think we can safely assume that neither Royce Lewis nor Alex Kirilloff are going anywhere for the Twins. Moving either of the two top prospects, both among the top 10 across baseball, would be monumental. Barring a blockbuster deal including a high caliber player with multiple years of team control it just doesn’t seem to be on the horizon.

 

We can attempt to glean an idea of what packages may look like by viewing things through the lens of recently made deals. From a top tier starting pitcher standpoint, the Chris Archer deal is a good place to turn:

 

Pirates get Chris Archer in exchange for Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz

 

Viewing this deal through the lens of Minnesota’s organization, you’re looking at something like Brusdar Graterol, Trevor Larnach, and Jordan Balazovic all being sent out. There’s a possibility that Graterol ends up as a reliever, and that’s the biggest evaluation Minnesota needs to make. Larnach looks the part of a legit corner outfield bat, and Balazovic has emerged as a middle-of-the-rotation starter. A return like this would by more focused on nabbing a player like Marcus Stroman or Matt Boyd than it would a rental option. No doubt losing the prospect capital would sting for the Twins, but they’d be targeting a pitcher that can improve the rotation both immediately and in the future.

 

There isn’t a great blueprint for a top-tier rental pitcher being moved in 2018, but one happened a year earlier:

 

Dodgers get Yu Darvish in exchange for Willie Calhoun, A.J. Alexy, and Brendon Davis

 

The further back we go the more complicated it gets to evaluate prospects and returns on an equal playing field. Even in a rental situation, there needs to be at least one top 100 inclusion if the expectation is a number two starter. It’s Graterol that’s likely the coveted get, although there’s an outside chance he could be changed out for Larnach. Wander Javier may be enough of an add in on his own to get the job done, or a pair of Jhoan Duran and Nick Gordon could make sense. This is the grouping that will need to be explored most if Minnesota is going to make a push for San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner. There are no guarantees he’s in a Twins uniform past 2019, and losing some serious future depth will hurt, but if it pushes the postseason performance to the next level it could be worth it.

 

Relievers are a fickle bunch and looking at the 2019 free agent crop is an absolute minefield. Getting the right guy will come down to scouting, but needing a high-leverage arm may not be cheap either:

 

Indians get Brad Hand and Adam Cimber in exchange for Francisco Mejia

 

Although Cimber posted great numbers with the Padres in 2018 this move was about Hand, his elite ability as a closer, and being under team control for up to the next three seasons. Cleveland had to part with their top prospect and a consensus top 30 player across baseball. Short of netting Felipe Vasquez from the Pittsburgh Pirates, Minnesota should be able to improve without going down this path. Both Jeurys Familia and Zack Britton were had for lesser returns and that’s the pool the Twins likely want to wade in. Some combination of Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon, Blayne Enlow, and Akil Baddoo should be an enticing group to an opposing team.

 

There’re a couple of takeaways for potential moves the Twins could make, and they’ll need to thin out a group that has more 40-man options than the team can accommodate. As the big-league club moves into a winning window, turning some of the depth into usable major league pieces is a logical decision.

 

If I had to make a couple of assumptions regarding pieces that will be moved here’s what I’m going with:

 

The Twins will make three trades, or acquire a total of three players, in the form of a starter and two relievers. The starter will be good enough to act as the third best option, with both relievers intended to operate in high leverage.

 

Across the trades that Minnesota makes, no fewer than five prospects will be dealt. The starter is probably going to cost at least two players with the potential for a third, and that could leave the relievers eating up another two or three bodies.

 

Trevor Larnach would seem the most likely bat to be moved. He’s got a safer floor than Brent Rooker, and he looks the part of a guy who should be no worse than an every day big leaguer. I’d guess Derek Falvey wants to hang onto Graterol if possible, making the Oregon State product the next most valuable asset. If there’s a pitcher dealt outside of Graterol, one of the duo acquired last season (Jhoan Duran/Jorge Alcala) is a good bet.

 

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[jkcarew]

Could Pittsburgh have possibly been fleeced worse than what Tampa did to them in the Chris Archer deal?

[operation mindcrime]

I'd be fine with trading any of Stewart, Gonsalves, Wade or Rooker!!!

[Doomtints]

I listed in another thread the teams who have pitching but have major gaps in hitting. Beyond that, there are two additional scenarios where a team could be willing to give up a pitcher and the Twins won't have to give up that much:

 

- A team trying to dump salary because they're not playing like they expected

- A 3-team trade can unload some of the risk onto another team who wants to fill a gap but can't do it on their own

[operation mindcrime]

Since I'm unable to like or quote as usual. I wanted to say I like jkcarew's comment at 10:28!

[adorduan]

 

Could Pittsburgh have possibly been fleeced worse than what Tampa did to them in the Chris Archer deal?

there were plenty here on Twins Daily that wanted to give up a lot for Archer...

[jorgenswest]

Teams will overpay for playoff caliber starters and late inning relievers with team control. Larnach will not be enough. He loses value as a corner player and he hasn’t shown great power in high A.

 

The best prospect currency is pitching, catchers, shortstops and center fielders. Let’s hope that Graterol returns and pitches really well so he is a top trade asset. Let’s hope that Lewis heats up. Let’s hope that Kirilloff gets healthy and displays awesome power for a corner player. The top three assets that might set the Twins apart from the trade competition are not at their top value right now.

[Doomtints]

 

there were plenty here on Twins Daily that wanted to give up a lot for Archer...

 

Whoever wrote the first piece stating Archer would be a good guy to trade for has real power because it's impossible to slice that and not find it to be complete nonsense. I'm going to take a shot in the dark and say it was Keith Law.

Edited June 18, 2019 by Doomtints

[nicksaviking]

Glasnow and Meadows were both post hype former prospects, Glasnow in particular, he was looking like a flat out bust. But both had MLB experience, which tends to be important to teams even if not for the fans. I’d look to flip Fernando Romero in a similar fashion. It would have been nice the Stephen Gondalves and Nick Gordon had stayed healthy enough to get some big league reps. I wouldn’t count out Luis Arraez being attractive to clubs though.

[Ted Schwerzler]

I'd be fine with trading any of Stewart, Gonsalves, Wade or Rooker!!!

 

Of those, maybe only Rooker has real value right now.

[Ted Schwerzler]

Glasnow and Meadows were both post hype former prospects, Glasnow in particular, he was looking like a flat out bust. But both had MLB experience, which tends to be important to teams even if not for the fans. I’d look to flip Fernando Romero in a similar fashion. It would have been nice the Stephen Gondalves and Nick Gordon had stayed healthy enough to get some big league reps. I wouldn’t count out Luis Arraez being attractive to clubs though.

 

This is a GREAT comment. I stayed away from post hype type inclusions, but the two most obvious are Romero and Gordon. Could certainly see either being moved.

[Aerodeliria]

 

I'd be fine with trading any of Stewart, Gonsalves, Wade or Rooker!!!

With that said, at the moment I think Stewart and Wade look like Dollar Tree items to me. Gonsalves maybe a step up and Rooker probably another step up, but they all could be part of a package deal.

[nicksaviking]

I listed in another thread the teams who have pitching but have major gaps in hitting. Beyond that, there are two additional scenarios where a team could be willing to give up a pitcher and the Twins won't have to give up that much:

 

- A team trying to dump salary because they're not playing like they expected

- A 3-team trade can unload some of the risk onto another team who wants to fill a gap but can't do it on their own

Speaking of salary dumps, I might think eating Gregory Polanco’s 28Mish salary over the next two years (including buyouts) might interest the criminally cheap Pirates.

[RaoulDuke]

 

This is a GREAT comment. I stayed away from post hype type inclusions, but the two most obvious are Romero and Gordon. Could certainly see either being moved.

I can see Sano being in this discussion as well, his value is down some but the potential is there.

 

Romero had me giddy last year, I really didn't think he would fall off so far.  I wouldn't mind getting value out of him now before he reaches full Alex Meyer level.

 

Gordon is on the upswing finally, and there is middle infield depth in the system.  I think he is most likely moved.

 

 

[Darius]

I, in my lifetime, have never been concerned about the Twins making mistakes at the deadline (other than sitting on their hands).

 

By all means, get some pitching. But, proceed with caution, here. Maybe I’m wrong, but it seems to me that nearly every prospect of note has kind of bottomed-out in terms of value right now. Whether due to injuries (Baddoo, Kiriloff, Graterol, Javier, etc.) or performance (Lewis, Gordon, etc.).

[Thrylos]

I would not hold onto anyone for the right return right now.

 

For example, if the Twins were to package Syndergaard and Diaz,  I would not mind sending both Lewis and Kirilloff.

 

There is an opportunity cost that has to come into the equation.  No prospect is a sure thing.  Ask Delmon Young if you don't believe me.

[jkcarew]

Glasnow and Meadows were both post hype former prospects, Glasnow in particular, he was looking like a flat out bust. But both had MLB experience, which tends to be important to teams even if not for the fans. I’d look to flip Fernando Romero in a similar fashion. It would have been nice the Stephen Gondalves and Nick Gordon had stayed healthy enough to get some big league reps. I wouldn’t count out Luis Arraez being attractive to clubs though.

The moral is that you’d hope your FO is smart enough to protect the players that are going to be the better players...in the case of Glasgow and Meadows...on the verge of being major league all-stars...instead of protecting the guys that are the latest shiniest objects. Example of one organization being way better at this than another. Concur on Arraez...not enough power, speed, or defensive prowess to be too attractive.

[DocBauer]

Perhaps I'm short sighted, optimistic, or crazy, but when I look at the rotation I see a top 3 that is probably as good as anyone's, unless what we are seeing from Odorizzi is NOT maturation and the Johnson touch but rather, some short term deal with the devil. Can't believe I'm actually saying this, but I think Perez is just going through a rough patch. The velocity and SO are still there. He seems to be a victim lately of a poor play or one bad pitch. I'm OK with Pineda and feel he's getting better and stronger.

 

Don't get me wrong, a major rotation piece would be great! But unless it is MAJOR acquisition, I'm just all in on a couple of RP.

 

To that end, I'd make a list of untouchables that would include Kiriloff, Lewis, Graterol and Balazovic. I'd like to include Thorpe there, but won't get greasy. I'd make everyone else available. I really think the depth of talent is there throughout the system for a pair of quality arms to be obtained.

 

Again, you present me with a real, true top of the rotation piece we have a different conversation taking place.

[Thrylos]

 

Perhaps I'm short sighted, optimistic, or crazy, but when I look at the rotation I see a top 3 that is probably as good as anyone's, unless what we are seeing from Odorizzi is NOT maturation and the Johnson touch but rather, some short term deal with the devil. Can't believe I'm actually saying this, but I think Perez is just going through a rough patch. The velocity and SO are still there. He seems to be a victim lately of a poor play or one bad pitch. I'm OK with Pineda and feel he's getting better and stronger.

 

If you look closer, the Twins really have only 2 good starters this season.

 

Against teams with >=.500 records this season (ranked by WHIP) :

 

Berrios: 1.96 ERA, 0.702 WHIP, 10 K/9, 5.8 K/BB
Odorizzi: 2.01 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 3.5 K/BB

 

Pineda: 5.04 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.8 K/BB
Gibson: 1.80 ERA, 1,600 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 K/BB (only 2 games)
Perez: 4.98 ERA, 1.708 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.5 K/BB

 

This is why they really need an ace to be relevant this post season, in addition to a couple of bullpen arms...

 

 

 

[highlander]

Get Vasquez and/or Iglesias! That is all.

[old nurse]

Pitching doesn't have to be expensive.

Verlander cost nothing for Houston. The criteria is another team overvaluing your prospects

Darvish really cost very little. 2 lottery tickets and a prospect with major league experience ranked outside the top 20 is not a great catch

Given Bumgarner's no trade list, the Twins would have little competition for his services.

[twinsfanstreif]

If you look closer, the Twins really have only 2 good starters this season.

 

Against teams with >=.500 records this season (ranked by WHIP) :

 

Berrios: 1.96 ERA, 0.702 WHIP, 10 K/9, 5.8 K/BB

Odorizzi: 2.01 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 3.5 K/BB

 

Pineda: 5.04 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.8 K/BB

Gibson: 1.80 ERA, 1,600 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 K/BB (only 2 games)

Perez: 4.98 ERA, 1.708 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.5 K/BB

 

This is why they really need an ace to be relevant this post season, in addition to a couple of bullpen arms...

What starters are you proposing? To be honest I'm not sure Mad Bum does all that much for us, he's about on par with Gibson. There's Stroman but I'm not in love with his peripherals, his SO/BB rate is not desirable and his WHIP is higher than Pineda. I'm pretty sure we're not getting Scherzer so who else is left on the SP market? Would Detroit trade Boyd to a division rival? With Pineda on the uptick and 3 solid starters in Berrios, Odorizzi, and Gibson I'm not sure any move for another starter moves the needle enough. I'd maybe trade for Bumgardner but I wouldn't give up a whole lot. Another point was brought up in the Gleeman and the Geek podcast is that Perez has been really good vs Righties and would excel vs predominantly right handed line ups which happens to describe the Astros and Yankees who we will most likely face come playoff time Edited June 19, 2019 by twinsfanstreif

[ashbury]

I'm pretty sure we're not getting Scherzer

I didn't see it mentioned elsewhere at TD, but Max Scherzer broke his nose during bunting drills yesterday. Meh, who wants him.

[Mile high twins fan]

I’d be interested in a package to the blue jays for Stroman and Giles. I don’t think stroman is a huge step up from any of our current top 3 but he gives us a 4th very solid starter for the playoffs and allows us to put both Pineda and Perez in the bullpen for the playoffs...both look like they could be very nice pieces to have in the ‘pen in October. This move would give us a playoff bullpen (12 man staff) of Perez, Pineda, Harper, Duffy, May, Rogers, Giles, and either Parker, magill, Morin or whomever else proves to be effective between now and then. Would that be a trustworthy bullpen going into October? I think I’d feel better adding someone like will smith or Brad Hand for that last spot, but is it necessary?

 

What kind of a package would the blue jays want for Stroman and Giles? Could Miguel Sano help tip the scales and lighten the prospect demands? Blue jays don’t need a 3rd baseman, but what about 1b/DH? I’m not as down on Sano as others, but he doesn’t seem to be an absolutely essential part of this team.

[twinsfanstreif]

I didn't see it mentioned elsewhere at TD, but Max Scherzer broke his nose during bunting drills yesterday. Meh, who wants him.

While he is older (a la Verlander for the stros in 2017) he has still been immensely effective. Even with the broken nose I'd take him in a heartbeat, he would be a huge upgrade for us. For some reason the Nats reportedly don't want to deal him which I think is dumb

[In My La Z boy]

 

What starters are you proposing? To be honest I'm not sure Mad Bum does all that much for us, he's about on par with Gibson. There's Stroman but I'm not in love with his peripherals, his SO/BB rate is not desirable and his WHIP is higher than Pineda. I'm pretty sure we're not getting Scherzer so who else is left on the SP market? Would Detroit trade Boyd to a division rival? With Pineda on the uptick and 3 solid starters in Berrios, Odorizzi, and Gibson I'm not sure any move for another starter moves the needle enough. I'd maybe trade for Bumgardner but I wouldn't give up a whole lot. Another point was brought up in the Gleeman and the Geek podcast is that Perez has been really good vs Righties and would excel vs predominantly right handed line ups which happens to describe the Astros and Yankees who we will most likely face come playoff time

Good comment here. The Giants are the trade partner I think - The conversation starts with MadBum - and ends with a blockbuster Smith/Watson/MadBum 3 fer.
2 more high lev power lefty's in the pen and a world series veteran. MadBum in the locker room is a big deal - and puts a Pineda high lev power righty in the pen. 
SF is starved for prospects - any and all prospects. Watson will cost the most - but it could be a numbers game in that SF needs quality bodies - we have alot of good young bodies that will be hitting rule 5 protection this winter. Our window for a world series run is so wide open you could drive a semi through it - unload the prospect vault - this is the team we've been waiting for. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

If you look closer, the Twins really have only 2 good starters this season.

 

Against teams with >=.500 records this season (ranked by WHIP) :

 

Berrios: 1.96 ERA, 0.702 WHIP, 10 K/9, 5.8 K/BB
Odorizzi: 2.01 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 3.5 K/BB

 

Pineda: 5.04 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.8 K/BB
Gibson: 1.80 ERA, 1,600 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.7 K/BB (only 2 games)
Perez: 4.98 ERA, 1.708 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 1.5 K/BB

 

This is why they really need an ace to be relevant this post season, in addition to a couple of bullpen arms...

 

Both Gibson and Pineda are without question trending in the right direction. I don't think a 2 game sample size on Gibson is at all fair either. WHIP can be all over the place in that number of games. I'm a bit concerned bout Perez. He is trending in the wrong direction though I do think he could be a solution in the pen with his 2 good pitches. 

 

I do think adding a starter makes sense, but I'm not really a fan of aiming low. I'd want a guy like Matt Boyd, Syndergard, etc. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Glasnow and Meadows were both post hype former prospects, Glasnow in particular, he was looking like a flat out bust. But both had MLB experience, which tends to be important to teams even if not for the fans. I’d look to flip Fernando Romero in a similar fashion. It would have been nice the Stephen Gondalves and Nick Gordon had stayed healthy enough to get some big league reps. I wouldn’t count out Luis Arraez being attractive to clubs though.

Worth noting that there's a big difference between being a "post hype" elite prospect and other "post hype" prospects. Glasnow and Meadows were only a year removed from being top 10-15 overall prospects, and Meadows himself was still top 40-50 entering 2018 and certainly hadn't fallen off much with his MLB debut (116 OPS+ with Pittsburgh). Glasnow probably could have still been top 50 or so preseason 2018 too if he hadn't graduated off the list due to innings in 2017 -- his MLB debut was pretty bad, but his upper minors performances were still electrifying.

 

Romero and Gonsalves were only at best a borderline top 100 guys, and Gordon was towards the end of most top 100 lists before falling off this year entirely.

 

Not to say they don't have some value, but I wouldn't compare their names now with Glasnow and Meadows circa July 2018.

 

(And I mentioned on another thread, but Archer was a quite a bit "post hype" himself by July 2018, in the middle of his third straight season of ~100 ERA+. So our lesser post-hype prospects might only be buying a lesser version of an average-ish pitcher too...)

[Steve Lein]

 

there were plenty here on Twins Daily that wanted to give up a lot for Archer...

 

I've always thought Archer was overrated. Get's K's and for that reason his FIP is good, but always gave up runs in bunches and really only had one "good" season. 4.2 bWAR peak, 1.8 average. Meh.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

While he is older (a la Verlander for the stros in 2017) he has still been immensely effective. Even with the broken nose I'd take him in a heartbeat, he would be a huge upgrade for us. For some reason the Nats reportedly don't want to deal him which I think is dumb

If you really believe Scherzer is still "immensely effective" and you'd "take him a heartbeat", maybe it's not so "dumb" that the Nats don't want to deal him.

 

It's hard to get fair value return on really good players -- that's why so few of them are dealt by teams with plausible arguments for current or near-future contention.