Article: BOS 2, MIN 0: Offense Squanders Berrios’ Gem

[Channing1964]

lets not forget that these are the Champions. We still have 5 games to go against them.

[Channing1964]

maybe and hopefully more

[USAFChief]

 

Why not bunt if you think the defense is not expecting a bunt?

 

Fans hate bunts, especially when they don't work, but this is the worst reason to not bunt.

Well even if they weren't expecting the bunt the first time he squared, I'm guessing the second time he squared it took nobody by surprise.

[Channing1964]

i would like to give props to Duffey....man, with the adversity he has had to deal with...right on man

[twinsnorth49]

On the bright side our "#2 starter" did pretty well against a very good lineup......

[twinsnorth49]

Seems to me Polanco has advanced runners very well this year, without bunting.

 

Swing the bat.

[adorduan]

 

He may have made the decision to bunt on his own, but it wasn't a bunt for a hit. He squared away earlier in the AB, any element of surprise was gone, and he squared away so early there wasn't any question his first objective was to sacrifice.

 

The "entire side of the infield" wasn't open. Boston wasn't in a shift.

 

I don't think anyone has said that one play lost the game. IMO it certainly contributed, however. 

 

As for the DP, Polanco has grounded into 3 DPs this year, in 274 ABs...a little over 1 percent chance. He's hitting in the .330's, so he had roughly 30 times more chance of a hit than grounding into a DP. If you just take ABs with runners on 1st, 1st and 2nd, or bases loaded, he has 67 ABs, so about a 4 percent chance of grounding into a DP. And that, of course, ignores the possibility of a walk. He might also have advanced both runners, or one runner, while making an out. And, of course, he might have roped a double into the corner, setting up a big inning and putting the game away.

 

The entire subject of DPs, for that matter, is too insignificant to worry about. The Twins have grounded into 41 DPs this year, in over 2700 PAs. Too rare to give up one out intentionally on the chance of not giving up two.

 

BTW, it's not "convenient" to point out the strategy failed. Simply moving a runner from second to third is no guarantee the run will score. 

I'm not going to argue that you are wrong with the major premise of your post, but I think your numbers are faulty.  How many of the 2700 AB were with at least a runner on first base for a DP to be a possibility?  That will change the percentages.  How much I don't know.... 

[USAFChief]

 

I'm not going to argue that you are wrong with the major premise of your post, but I think your numbers are faulty.  How many of the 2700 AB were with at least a runner on first base for a DP to be a possibility?  That will change the percentages.  How much I don't know.... 

Indeed. Good catch.

 

Per baseball ref https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2019

 

814 PAs for the team with runners on 1st, 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, and bases loaded. I don't know how many of those came with less than 2 outs.

 

Still, I think the point stands. There is only a small chance of hitting into a DP, small enough to basically be ignored, IMO. Particularly when coupled to the times that a sacrifice (or sacrifice attempt) does not lead to a run. Like last night, for example. 

[stringer bell]

Polanco squared to bunt twice and Devers was playing in and close to the line. That pretty much makes the bunt Polanco put down a sacrifice. To me, if there is some surprise involved, it might be worth it to bunt, but if it is to give an out in exchange for advancing two runners, it is not worth it. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Indeed. Good catch.

 

Per baseball ref https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2019

 

814 PAs for the team with runners on 1st, 1st and 2nd, 1st and 3rd, and bases loaded. I don't know how many of those came with less than 2 outs.

 

Still, I think the point stands. There is only a small chance of hitting into a DP, small enough to basically be ignored, IMO. Particularly when coupled to the times that a sacrifice (or sacrifice attempt) does not lead to a run. Like last night, for example. 

From that link, I think you want the "on 1st, lt 2 out" category (on first, less than 2 out -- that includes first only, first and second, first and third, and bases loaded -- basically any potential GDP situation).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2019#bases::none

 

Twins have 40 GDP in 489 PA this season, with 4 sacrifices.

 

Polanco has 3 GDP in 49 PA this season, with 1 sacrifice now. Career 18 in 270 PA, with 8 sacrifices.

[Riverbrian]

General question for the audience

 

If it was Adrianza or Castro at the plate in that situation. Is it OK to bunt then? 

[yarnivek1972]

General question for the audience

 

If it was Adrianza or Castro at the plate in that situation. Is it OK to bunt then?

I think I would be asking who was left on the bench. If no one of significance, then yes. I would consider those two bunting acceptable. Indeed, even borderline mandatory. But Polanco is in Trout neighborhood right now. He’s been THAT good.

[Dantes929]

I liked the wins expectancy comment earlier.    The win expectancy when Polanco was up was 55%.   When Cruz started his at bat it was 56%.   When Cruz failed it fell to 23% and when Rosario failed it fell to 17%.    With a 17% chance of winning does it make sense to pitch Parker?    I am pretty sure if we had scored even one run in the 8th  our win probability goes to at least 50%. and we would not have seen Parker in the 9th.    Does 17% chance of a win constitute high leverage?    I think it does but not sure I want to waste one of my top three when we might need them more today and tomorrow when we might have better odds.

[howeda7]

 

Maybe we need La Tortuga's mojo back on the bench? His presence seems to have a magical effect on the bat rack.  

 

I know this is sarcastic, but I think he was important to the clubhouse/vibe of this team and should be brought back ASAP. I know Cave earned this shot with Buxton out, but you know Gonzalez is going to get most of the OF time anyway.

[howeda7]

 

Parker has appeared 7 times in June, for a total of 5 IP. Four times since June 7th. 

 

He's not being overused, he's simply not very good. It's 2019, every reliever will be used, used fairly frequently, and often pitch in situations where runs are extremely likely to impact the game. 

 

Who should be pitching those innings, if not Parker?

Current BP confidence rankings:

 

1. Rodgers

 

 

2. Harper

 

3. Morin

4. May

 

5. Duffy

 

6. Littell

7. McGill

 

 

8. Parker.

[luckylager]

 

I know this is sarcastic, but I think he was important to the clubhouse/vibe of this team and should be brought back ASAP. I know Cave earned this shot with Buxton out, but you know Gonzalez is going to get most of the OF time anyway.

There's a lot to be said for keeping things loose. It is possible that Astudillo is a necessary ingredient in this team's chemistry. 

[brightside]

As much as it pains me to see us send out subpar relievers when we are in close games like last night, I think it is important. The more games we lose because of lack of bullpen depth only helps expose the need further and hopefully leads to a remedy. I would like to think that winning the division isn't enough. I say we go for it while the window is open.

[Dantes929]

 

There's a lot to be said for keeping things loose. It is possible that Astudillo is a necessary ingredient in this team's chemistry. 

Twins are 5-4 without Astudillo.   I would welcome a 55% winning percentage from here on out as that would get us to 97 wins.   If we are looking at small sample size I would point out we are 1-2 since Buxton got hurt.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Cruz didn't come through, but I'll still take him in a big spot. Sano on the other hand, I have zero faith can even make contact in a key spot. And get Blake Parker to the IL and off this team already. He can re-hab during the All-Star break and give it another try before 7/31.

 

Cruz in High Leverage Situations--.984 OPS, .423 wOBA, 168 wRC+, 28.6% hard hit rate, 28.6% soft hit rate.

 

Sano in High Leverage Situations--1.262 OPS, .503 wOBA, 222 wRC+, 66.7% hard hit rate, 0.0% soft hit rate.

 

You were saying about not trusting Sano in high leverage?

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

From that link, I think you want the "on 1st, lt 2 out" category (on first, less than 2 out -- that includes first only, first and second, first and third, and bases loaded -- basically any potential GDP situation).

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/split.cgi?t=b&team=MIN&year=2019#bases::none

 

Twins have 40 GDP in 489 PA this season, with 4 sacrifices.

 

Polanco has 3 GDP in 49 PA this season, with 1 sacrifice now. Career 18 in 270 PA, with 8 sacrifices.

 

So with these numbers, it's an 8.2% chance for a DP, which means its slightly more likely of an occurrence than a walk (8.1%).  Which suggests Chief feels Twins hitters should not take pitches, as it's a statistically insignificant chance that they would be able to work a walk.

[Mauerpower]

Unless I missed a game, this was only the 2nd time the Twins have been shut out so far this season. The last one was an 0-11 loss to Houston April 30th.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Current BP confidence rankings:

 

1. Rodgers

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yep, that’s about where I’m at, too