Article: Craig Kimbrel and Risk Tolerance

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

So, depending on how stringent we take your criteria, there might be 1-5 relievers available, which I wouldn't exactly describe as "no shortage" - especially when almost every single playoff contender is looking for bullpen help. We can kind of assume that the Rays, Astros and Yankees are pretty set. But that leaves the Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, and Dodgers to compete with the Twins.

Thanks for putting in the work to make that list!

 

Not sure if the Rays are "set" in the bullpen, if their bid for Kimbrel is any indication.

 

And the Yankees and Astros might be willing to add to a strength -- they both did last year with the Britton and Pressly trades, respectively. It seems like the top contenders are rarely "set" in terms of a bullpen.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Houston made Pressly into the elite pitcher he is now. He would not be performing at this level if he was still with us.

Pressly was pretty good with the Twins in 2018. There were some articles about us working with him on the same kind of stuff Houston did too, and his last month or so with us with pretty darn great. His Astros success seems just a continuation of that process.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

To be fair, I think the Pressly situation was a big reason why Molitor and part of the coaching staff was fired (and they had data to back up that decision to ownership after it happened), which is a probably a net win.

 

Ownership never should have put the restrictions they did on Falvine in the first place but that's water under the bridge at this point.

Ew, I hope Molitor was zero factor in the Pressly trade. (And FWIW, I seem to recall we were making changes with Pressly similar to the Astros changes, and his 2018 stat line was bearing those fruits already before the trade.)

[JW24]

 

First of all, there's no cap in baseball. There's a luxery tax penalty, but that's not a factor for most teams.

 

Second, Who are you going to give up to get Syndergaard and Diaz? I don't think the Twins have the prospects to play in that end of the pool if the Mets did decide to package those two. And I don't think the Mets sell anyway. They were busy acquiring players this past winter trying to win now.

 

And finally, the Twins can't spend the money to acquire Kimbrel, but have the money to provide the Mets salary relief by taking on Cespedes' contract?

 

I understand there is no cap, I was referring to flexibility to spend moving forward below the luxury tax threshold. Additionally, the Mets need to decide if they are in rebuild mode vs contending mode (I personally think they are in rebuild). They already have $130M committed to next season, so if they commit to a rebuild, this is an area they need to address.

 

I have never said anything about the Twins not having the money for Kimbrel. They could have offered more than the Cubs did. They didn't. Do the Twins have the space to accommodate Cespedes? Absolutely. The Twins only have $38.5M committed to next season, and Cespedes would come off the books at the end of 2020, so it would be a 1-year issue.

 

Finally, if the Mets made Syndergaard and Diaz available, I think every prospect is on the table from the Twins. Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Gordon. I would trade all of these guys for proven, elite MLB talent. As I am not in either front office, I don't know if this is too much or not enough. The purpose of including Cespedes in the deal is to lower the Mets asking price by taking that contract off their hands.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Ew, I hope Molitor was zero factor in the Pressly trade. (And FWIW, I seem to recall we were making changes with Pressly similar to the Astros changes, and his 2018 stat line was bearing those fruits already before the trade.)

Not in the trade itself, in the failure of the coaching staff to effectively communicate the front office's data to the player and implement that data.

 

The Twins knew Pressly had electric stuff, but there seemed to be broken communication lines when it came to relaying how to implement desired changes to the players themselves.

 

And I think that's part of the reason we have Baldelli and Johnson right now.

[jameshenke78]

The decisions made this offseason by Twins leadership have been excellent up and down the roster.  Practically every player in the lineup has over-performed expectations, and that extends to the pitching staff as well with Perez and Odorizzi.  While it's tempting to see that shiny new toy in Kimbrel, leadership has earned my trust that they are the right people for this team, at this time.  Clearly the years combined with the dollars didn't make sense for what they believe is a declining reliever.  Will moves be made?  Absolutely.  But via trade, where we can target players that better fit what we are trying to do....younger and heading into their prime.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I understand there is no cap, I was referring to flexibility to spend moving forward below the luxury tax threshold. Additionally, the Mets need to decide if they are in rebuild mode vs contending mode (I personally think they are in rebuild). They already have $130M committed to next season, so if they commit to a rebuild, this is an area they need to address.

The Mets just extended de Grom; they just traded for Diaz, they have Syndergaard, Conforto, and Matz controlled through 2021 (and Alonso, Rosario, and McNeil even longer).

 

They're not a perfect team, and they've got challengers in the division, but but nothing about their roster or actions suggest they are in a rebuild or close to starting one.

[adorduan]

 

No big surprise. And I'll sleep fine tonight. History has shown us that the Twins will almost NEVER be in the running for top tier free agents. We just need to keep doing what we've been doing this year, take chances on intriguing rejects from other teams, and keep hitting the ball like we've been doing. If it takes 12 runs to win these games, let's do it!

That's not how world series are won......

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That's not how world series are won......

Hey, the 1998 Vikings definitively proved that OFFENSE wins championships*!

 

* Division championships

[JW24]

 

The Mets just extended de Grom; they just traded for Diaz, they have Syndergaard, Conforto, and Matz controlled through 2021 (and Alonso, Rosario, and McNeil even longer).

 

They're not a perfect team, and they've got challengers in the division, but but nothing about their roster or actions suggest they are in a rebuild or close to starting one.

 

Well, if the Twins ask and the Mets say no chance, the Twins are not out anything.

 

I have seen a lot of posts on various threads about the Twins working out a deal with SF (Bumgarner and Smith) and Toronto (Stroman and Giles). I am just throwing out some other ideas here. I have also mentioned on other threads that I think the Twins should look at Oakland (Trienen) for a deal. There are plenty of potential trade partners for the right price.

 

Many of the posts regarding the Twins' need to address the bullpen come with the caveat of "not for our top prospects" so my interest in the Mets is in asking what price the Twins might have to pay and if it would be worth it. I would also be interested to see what Wes Johnson and Syndergaard could do together. I think it could be impressive.

[Major League Ready]

 

I keep hoping on him. He should be, imo, more successful than he is.

 

But does he (Duffey) look significantly better to you in recent appearances? It looks to me like they tweaked something because his FB has a little more velocity / movement and he has had better command. This could be a relatively big deal. To find another quality reliever and literally no cost would be the best case scenario. Trade for one more and this team looks good now and going forward.

Edited June 7, 2019 by Major League Ready

[Mike Sixel]

But does he (Duffey) look significantly better to you in recent appearances? It looks to me like they tweaked something because his FB has a little more velocity / movement and he has had better command. This could be a relatively big deal. To find another quality reliever and literally no cost would be the best case scenario. Trade for one more and this team looks good now and going forward.

I only get to watch on gameday or gamecast or whatever.... The budget no longer allows paying to watch baseball....

 

But it would be great on two fronts if true. One, they need someone to be better. Two, it provides evidence that what they are doing is working!

Edited June 7, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[USAFChief]

 

Hey, the 1998 Vikings definitively proved that OFFENSE wins championships*!

 

* Division championships

You have that bass ackwards.

 

The 2017 Vikings proved that DEFENSE wins championships!!

[TheLeviathan]

 

I only get to watch on gameday or gamecast or whatever.... The budget no longer allows paying to watch baseball....

 

There are ways to stream that are very budget friendly.  I'm sure any of us whipper snappers could help you out in PM if you're so inclined.

[USAFChief]

 

Well, if the Twins ask and the Mets say no chance, the Twins are not out anything.

 

I have seen a lot of posts on various threads about the Twins working out a deal with SF (Bumgarner and Smith) and Toronto (Stroman and Giles). I am just throwing out some other ideas here. I have also mentioned on other threads that I think the Twins should look at Oakland (Trienen) for a deal. There are plenty of potential trade partners for the right price.

 

Many of the posts regarding the Twins' need to address the bullpen come with the caveat of "not for our top prospects" so my interest in the Mets is in asking what price the Twins might have to pay and if it would be worth it. I would also be interested to see what Wes Johnson and Syndergaard could do together. I think it could be impressive.

Well, let's hope you're right.

 

I could live with Syndergaard and Diaz, I guess. 

[MMMordabito]

How about Shane Greene?  He's under control in 2020 too.

 

I like some guys like Trevor Gott and Amir Garrett as well, but they are under control for so long that I think the price will be pretty high.

[KGB]

 

Not in the trade itself, in the failure of the coaching staff to effectively communicate the front office's data to the player and implement that data.

 

The Twins knew Pressly had electric stuff, but there seemed to be broken communication lines when it came to relaying how to implement desired changes to the players themselves.

 

And I think that's part of the reason we have Baldelli and Johnson right now.

If the FO believed this, why not fire Molitor during the year and not trade Pressly?  If they believed Pressly was going to be this good, they would not have traded him.  It had nothing to do with Molitor.

 

Trading Pressly is just another example of the FO misreading their team.  They either didn't plan on contending this year or didn't believe in Pressly, so they took the best offer. In 2017, instead of adding at the deadline, the traded players away players and end up getting hot and making the playoffs.

 

This isn't an attempt to jump on the FO, the Twins are having a great year so far and there is time to fix the bullpen.  Now they have to start acting as contenders instead of rebuilding.   

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Pressly was pretty good with the Twins in 2018. There were some articles about us working with him on the same kind of stuff Houston did too, and his last month or so with us with pretty darn great. His Astros success seems just a continuation of that process.

 

Truthfully, SSS falls into that too. The difference between his Houston and Minnesota numbers in 2018 could easily be 1 bad game. 

[Riverbrian]

 

To be fair, I think the Pressly situation was a big reason why Molitor and part of the coaching staff was fired (and they had data to back up that decision to ownership after it happened), which is a probably a net win.

 

Ownership never should have put the restrictions they did on Falvine in the first place but that's water under the bridge at this point.

 

I don't know why Molitor was let go.

 

I seem to remember a quote from either Derek or Thad stating that they were looking for a manager that was little more future focused or something along those lines. I do remember a recent quote from Falvey on MLB radio that they were aware of Pressly's potential but were having trouble in execution. All of these are just clues that may or may not mean anything. 

 

However... when I look at it from the outside. Pressly is an example we all keep bringing up and I agree... but I can at least justify it because we got some value back... but... to me a bigger question is this. 

 

How can there be a reliever currently pitching with the Marlins striking out 45 batters in 24 innings while we had Matt Belisle on the roster during a season we are going nowhere? 

 

We have to be able to make better assessments then that? We should have been able to realize that Nick Anderson was worth a run up the flagpole instead of Belisle. This is what has to stop and if Molitor played a role in this... maybe it's part of the reason he is gone. 

[Riverbrian]

 

Well, it happens every single year. There will be plenty of good relievers traded in the next two months, and I bet some will outperform Kimbrel the rest of this season. When I say "Pressly types" I'm talking strictly about young-ish relievers with good stuff on the top of their games. It's ideal, not essential, they're controllable past this year. Not sure why people are acting like such commodities no longer exist? 

 

I frequently use the term "bullpen serious". When I say I want them to get "bullpen serious". I am kinda talking about what you are talking about. 

 

Take a tour around the rosters of the other MLB teams. The guys who are producing the high K/9 rates, the guys who are hanging the hard zeroes and destroying the come back hopes of the other team, were primarily guys that Keith Law didn't have ranked.

 

Our guy Taylor Rogers wasn't one of those guys, he was a failed starter and look at him now. Ryan Pressly was a rule 5 pick. Everybody wants Taylor Rogers now but they wouldn't paid much for him 3 years ago. Who was Kirby Yates? We know who he is now. How Bout' LeClerc? Did we know who Edwin Diaz was when he arrived on the scene with the Mariners? When I think about Gallegos with the Cardinals... I think about the Islands but the dude is blowing batters out of the water right now. Amir Garrett? Diekman? Who was Kahnle when he showed up with the White Sox? Workman? Brad Hand nobody knew who Brad Hand was until he became Brad Hand. Alverado and Roe with the Rays? 

 

We've all heard of Kimbrel... He excites us because we've heard of him but there are bullpen arms that we haven't heard of, arms that can hang hard zeroes and destroy hope for the opposing team. Nearly every roster has one or two, including the ones who will be selling. 

 

 

 

[SomeGuy]

 

Pressly was pretty good with the Twins in 2018. There were some articles about us working with him on the same kind of stuff Houston did too, and his last month or so with us with pretty darn great. His Astros success seems just a continuation of that process.

Pressly was pretty good at times with the Twins but not in the same ballpark as he has been at all times with Houston.  Pressly himself credits Houston with unlocking his potential.  Its a night and day difference.  Hopefully the Twins analytics gets there and this case seems to have amplified our efforts to catch up to these teams.

 

The newest Astro was open to input. With the Twins, he had wondered, “Why is it not clicking for me?” Now someone was offering answers. And it wasn’t just anyone; it was the Astros, who had won the World Series the year before and had a history of acquiring and improving much more accomplished pitchers, including former Tigers ace Justin Verlander, the best AL pitcher of his era. “I was just curious to see if this works. … It’s like, maybe I should pay attention over here,” Pressly says.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I frequently use the term "bullpen serious". When I say I want them to get "bullpen serious". I am kinda talking about what you are talking about. 

 

Take a tour around the rosters of the other MLB teams. The guys who are producing the high K/9 rates, the guys who are hanging the hard zeroes and destroying the come back hopes of the other team, were primarily guys that Keith Law didn't have ranked.

 

Our guy Taylor Rogers wasn't one of those guys, he was a failed starter and look at him now. Ryan Pressly was a rule 5 pick. Everybody wants Taylor Rogers now but they wouldn't paid much for him 3 years ago. Who was Kirby Yates? We know who he is now. How Bout' LeClerc? Did we know who Edwin Diaz was when he arrived on the scene with the Mariners? When I think about Gallegos with the Cardinals... I think about the Islands but the dude is blowing batters out of the water right now. Amir Garrett? Diekman? Who was Kahnle when he showed up with the White Sox? Workman? Brad Hand nobody knew who Brad Hand was until he became Brad Hand. Alverado and Roe with the Rays? 

 

We've all heard of Kimbrel... He excites us because we've heard of him but there are bullpen arms that we haven't heard of, arms that can hang hard zeroes and destroy hope for the opposing team. Nearly every roster has one or two, including the ones who will be selling. 

 

I think what's missing in this equation is that these guys take time to develop as well. Look at Rodgers and Pressley. I don't mind letting us do some of that if the team continues to win, but you're going to have to accept some stinkers on occasion along with the numbers in the loss column that come with them. 

 

That said, they should still be hedging that bet and acquiring help, b/c there's no guarantee that they've developed another Rogers or two by October. If they do great... but with that added help you're looking at an early 2000s pen then... if they don't... they will be glad they got help. 

[Trov]

As much as I wanted Kimbrel, I can understand not wanting to invest a third year.  His red flags were bright.  Let us not forget that he has not faced a major league hitter for awhile.  So many players that have sat half the season then try to come in have not worked out well.  Kimbrel may also not have wanted to come as Twins have stayed away from traditional closer role, and Kimbrel made it clear that is what he wanted to do, get saves.  

 

I believe the FO will make trades, they did two years ago, both buying and selling in a few days span.  I feel we need at least 2 more high end relievers for the playoffs.  Hopefully, they can get them and not have to give up too good of prospects.  Remember when old FO got Matt Capps and what they had to give up?  Not saying this one will make that bad of a deal, but you never know. 

[Riverbrian]

I think what's missing in this equation is that these guys take time to develop as well. Look at Rodgers and Pressley. I don't mind letting us do some of that if the team continues to win, but you're going to have to accept some stinkers on occasion along with the numbers in the loss column that come with them.

 

That said, they should still be hedging that bet and acquiring help, b/c there's no guarantee that they've developed another Rogers or two by October. If they do great... but with that added help you're looking at an early 2000s pen then... if they don't... they will be glad they got help.

I get that and I’m not missing that. I’m saying there are guys who have been developed out there. They just haven’t been labeled as “the guys yet”.

 

Everybody keeps bringing up the famous. There are others. It’s not Will Smith or bust.

 

As for the patience needed to develop... yeah we have failed as an organization for a decade or longer

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't know why Molitor was let go.

 

I seem to remember a quote from either Derek or Thad stating that they were looking for a manager that was little more future focused or something along those lines. I do remember a recent quote from Falvey on MLB radio that they were aware of Pressly's potential but were having trouble in execution. All of these are just clues that may or may not mean anything. 

And I suspect you just answered your own question, at least in part.

[Riverbrian]

And I suspect you just answered your own question, at least in part.

I’m willing to believe I might have but I’m always willing to believe the ole “more to the story” bit.

[Mr. Brooks]

Molitor was let go for a lot of reasons. And I notice that we haven't heard much from those that ripped the firing, now that Baldelli has us in first place by a mile.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I get that and I’m not missing that. I’m saying there are guys who have been developed out there. They just haven’t been labeled as “the guys yet”.

Everybody keeps bringing up the famous. There are others. It’s not Will Smith or bust.

As for the patience needed to develop... yeah we have failed as an organization for a decade or longer

 

To be fair, I suspect we may have some of those types already available internally... I just want the Will Smith's of the world to complement them. 

 

Those switches rarely go on overnight. I would hope that the current staff can have one or two more names on the Trusted list by seasons end. I'd just like them to acquire one (preferably two) more as well. 

[old nurse]

 

And I suspect you just answered your own question, at least in part.

 

I’m willing to believe I might have but I’m always willing to believe the ole “more to the story” bit.

A fresh voice instructing you on the same thing might be the first thing to consider.  Different systems, same message. The second is that the voice has a little more weight from a team on a winning streak rather than a losing one. You also have to remember that Ryan was all Texan. Happy players play better.

[drock2190]

I doubt the Twins go after Will Smith. He's a carbon copy of Rodgers. They probably want a righty to mix and match.