Article: Craig Kimbrel and Risk Tolerance

[Nick Nelson]

 

There's going to be a "sea of ready sellers" for prime age relievers under multiple years of control? Your plan is for multiple teams to make as bad a trade as the Twins did with Pressly? 

 

 Let's hope you're right.

Again, the Pressly trade wouldn't have been bad if the Twins didn't transform from also-rans to top contenders in a flash. Many teams have no legitimate hopes of that happening. In that case, the trade wouldn't be bad. If the Twins still sucked I'd much rather have the prospects than Pressly. There is zero purpose in keeping around effective relief pitchers on 90-loss teams when you can swap them for legit high-upside prospects. 

 

The Twins have an over-abundance of mid-tier prospect types so it's kinda funny how many fans are suddenly clutching them like pearls.  

[Vanimal46]

While I'm disappointed that the Twins didn't land Kimbrel, I hope their refusal to buy into a third year was made for the right reasons (analytics showing an imminent decline in productivity), not the wrong reasons (money).

 

The Cubs can swallow the money if Kimbrel goes south, the Twins do not have the same luxury.

 

Unfortunately, we'll likely never know why the decision was made.

The Twins are absolutely able to swallow dead money. Not as much as Chicago, LA, and New York can. Last year the Twins swallowed $19 million alone with Erv and Phil Hughes' contracts. As long as they don't make it a habit and have $50+ million in dead money, they will be just fine.

[Mike Sixel]

Again, the Pressly trade wouldn't have been bad if the Twins didn't transform from also-rans to top contenders in a flash. Many teams have no legitimate hopes of that happening. In that case, the trade wouldn't be bad. If the Twins still sucked I'd much rather have the prospects than Pressly. There is zero purpose in keeping around effective relief pitchers on 90-loss teams when you can swap them for legit high-upside prospects.

 

The Twins have an over-abundance of mid-tier prospect types so it's kinda funny how many fans are suddenly clutching them like pearls.

That's not his point. Chief is all for trading prospects. He doesn't think multiple, or even one, Pressley types is out there and will be traded for medium prospects, or at all. Edited June 7, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Twins are absolutely able to swallow dead money. Not as much as Chicago, LA, and New York can. Last year the Twins swallowed $19 million alone with Erv and Phil Hughes' contracts. As long as they don't make it a habit and have $50+ million in dead money, they will be just fine.

 

Just because I can afford to pay you 100 grand for your Pontiac Aztek doesn't mean I have to.

 

Look, I wanted Kimbrel, but there is a point at which we want our front office assessing risk and walking away from deals they feel the numbers don't justify.

 

We shouldn't let our disappointment (which I share) cause us to think recklessness is a better idea.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Twins are absolutely able to swallow dead money. Not as much as Chicago, LA, and New York can. Last year the Twins swallowed $19 million alone with Erv and Phil Hughes' contracts. As long as they don't make it a habit and have $50+ million in dead money, they will be just fine.

Sure, the Twins *technically* can swallow the money but if your analytical analysis suggests decline and a reliever wants $16m+ a year, you don't just take on that money because you can technically eat it if you're right about the situation. That's really bad asset management.

 

For good and bad, this front office appears to operate on a pretty strict "dollar to expected performance" ratio. While I wanted to see them land Kimbrel, I'd prefer to see them continue to operate that way and not throw it out the window in an emotional decision.

 

And time will tell if they're right or not.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Just because I can afford to pay you 100 grand for your Pontiac Aztek doesn't mean I have to.

 

Look, I wanted Kimbrel, but there is a point at which we want our front office assessing risk and walking away from deals they feel the numbers don't justify.

 

We shouldn't let our disappointment (which I share) cause us to think recklessness is a better idea.

Yes. A team like the Cubs can say "what the hell, let's do it anyway" without moving the needle much on future decisions.

 

The Twins can't do the same.

[Doomtints]

 

They don't need to acquire the best reliever in baseball. Just a good one or two. Do the descriptors you omitted – "prime-aged relievers, ideally with an untapped strength, under multiple years of control" – seem that unattainable in a sea of ready sellers? These Twins have shown an ability to help some pitchers discover new levels, no?

 

There's going to be a "sea of ready sellers" for prime age relievers under multiple years of control? Your plan is for multiple teams to make as bad a trade as the Twins did with Pressly? 

 

 Let's hope you're right.

 

The Pressly thing really seemed like the Twins felt like doing Houston a favor. It seemed like that then and it seems like it even more now.

[USAFChief]

 

Pretty well?  The Twins bullpen has been pretty good so far. 

 

What we're talking about is how we upgrade to turn something we're all worried about into something we're not.  But make no mistake, performance wise, this group has been good so far.

The Twins bullpen is 10th in the AL by ERA.

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Pressly thing really seemed like the Twins felt like doing Houston a favor. It seemed like that then and it seems like it even more now.

To be fair, I think the Pressly situation was a big reason why Molitor and part of the coaching staff was fired (and they had data to back up that decision to ownership after it happened), which is a probably a net win.

 

Ownership never should have put the restrictions they did on Falvine in the first place but that's water under the bridge at this point.

[blindeke]

 

How has relying on the AAA pitchers worked? What if those teams had to drop into their minors, would that be better? What is the better alternative?

 

Great question. I assume the Twins are working on an answer because we sure could use another pitcher or two like Taylor Rogers... 

[Nick Nelson]

 

That's not his point. Chief is all for trading prospects. He doesn't think multiple, or even one, Pressley types is out there and will be traded for medium prospects, or at all.

Well, it happens every single year. There will be plenty of good relievers traded in the next two months, and I bet some will outperform Kimbrel the rest of this season. When I say "Pressly types" I'm talking strictly about young-ish relievers with good stuff on the top of their games. It's ideal, not essential, they're controllable past this year. Not sure why people are acting like such commodities no longer exist? 

[Doctor Wu]

No big surprise. And I'll sleep fine tonight. History has shown us that the Twins will almost NEVER be in the running for top tier free agents. We just need to keep doing what we've been doing this year, take chances on intriguing rejects from other teams, and keep hitting the ball like we've been doing. If it takes 12 runs to win these games, let's do it!

[blindeke]

 

The Twins bullpen is 10th in the AL by ERA.

 

What about FIP or xFIP? I feel like they have been a bit lucky.

[USAFChief]

 

Again, the Pressly trade wouldn't have been bad if the Twins didn't transform from also-rans to top contenders in a flash. Many teams have no legitimate hopes of that happening. In that case, the trade wouldn't be bad. If the Twins still sucked I'd much rather have the prospects than Pressly. There is zero purpose in keeping around effective relief pitchers on 90-loss teams when you can swap them for legit high-upside prospects. 

 

The Twins have an over-abundance of mid-tier prospect types so it's kinda funny how many fans are suddenly clutching them like pearls.  

Well for one thing, the Twins weren't a 90 loss team.

 

It was a terrible trade, it was always a terrible trade, and would have been a terrible trade even IF the Twins were a 90 loss team, and expected to BE a 90 loss team.

 

I do agree the Twins have an abundance of mid-tier prospect types, and I have no problem trading them for bullpen help. I'd have wanted more bullpen upgrades even if they'd landed Kimbrel. But I can guarantee you there will be much whining and gnashing of teeth over it, if and when it happens.

 

And we won't get back anyone as good as Pressly, nor likely as good as Kimbrel.

 

 

[TheLeviathan]

 

The Twins bullpen is 10th in the AL by ERA.

 

They've also only blown 4 leads.  There are three teams with three blown saves and a couple with four.  They are 11th in baseball in K/9.  They are 9th in K/BB.  10th in HRs allowed.  

 

I'm sure I don't need to explain that ERA is not a good measure of a bullpen. 

[Mike Sixel]

Great question. I assume the Twins are working on an answer because we sure could use another pitcher or two like Taylor Rogers...

I was an early proponent of moving Rogers to the pen. I'm not sure which AAA guy right now I'd do that with.

 

And, that's not the point. How has the back of the bullpen faired, because that's who would not pitch if they had brought in help. People always point out the bad free agent performance relative to pay, but don't look at the just straight up bad performance of the next three guys that bounce up and down while teams try to find the next Rogers....

Edited June 7, 2019 by Mike Sixel

[rdehring]

Count me among those who were relieved when the Twins didn't sign Darvish.  I was also concerned with their signing Cruz as his performance declined last year, although I wasn't aware of what Cruz brings to the clubhouse.  So I was right with half of those.  That's kind of the results shown by the relievers in the article blindeke links to. 

 

So I understand the FO not wanting to go more than two years out for a reliever that is showing signs of decline.  And I commend them for sticking to their guns and not wavering on that decision.  As for Kimbrel, he must be very happy there are teams like the Cubs who are desperate enough to provide financial security for the rest of his life.

 

All indications are the FO is aware of the need to improve their bullpen for what could be a championship run.  I don't have a clue how they will do that, or even if they will.  As Nick points out, they have lots of ammunition to do one trade similar to the Pressley trade last year.  They should also be able to do a second trade and pick up an effective left handed specialist (someone better than Zach Duke) as either a rental for the championship run or the long-term.  And when doing so, I don't expect they will need to part with any of my Top 10...Kirilloff, Lewis, Javier, Urbina, Graterol, Balazovic, Escobar, Larnach, Arraez or Rortvedt. 

 

Edited June 7, 2019 by rdehring

[Doomtints]

We can play sour grapes all we want at this point and say he probably sucks anyway, but that seems immature. I can't think of a reliever of his stature falling off a cliff unless an injury is involved, and some of you are proponents of the idea that players never actually fall of cliffs anyway.

 

 

[Tomj14]

 

What about FIP or xFIP? I feel like they have been a bit lucky.

Luck or no luck doesn't mean a thing when comparing stats that have already happened. Stats like that are only good at projecting what will happen going forward. IMO

[Mike Sixel]

I like how people are mocking the Cubs,a team the twins can only hope to be.

[TheLeviathan]

 

What about FIP or xFIP? I feel like they have been a bit lucky.

 

They might have been.  I don't have a lot of confidence in this bullpen going forward and the ERA ballooning that happened thanks to that game in Tampa and Parker the other night probably made quite an impact.  And may be indicative of the future.  That justifies concern to be sure.

 

However, there have been people talking about how bad the bullpen is all season and the numbers just don't bear that out.  Now, they may look bad if we keep the current bullpen and ride them out, but it's simply not accurate to say they've been bad so far.

[JW24]

 

I do agree the Twins have an abundance of mid-tier prospect types, and I have no problem trading them for bullpen help. I'd have wanted more bullpen upgrades even if they'd landed Kimbrel. But I can guarantee you there will be much whining and gnashing of teeth over it, if and when it happens.

 

And we won't get back anyone as good as Pressly, nor likely as good as Kimbrel.

 

I think the way the front office handled the draft this week shows signs of them gearing up to unload some prospects soon for pitching help. The FO seems to be heading toward drafting bats and trading for pitching, which I think is a decent strategy.

 

I would not be surprised if the Twins are able to land a guy or two who outperforms Kimbrel, and maybe Pressly, through the end of the season.

 

I wonder what the asking price from the Mets would be for a package of guys including Syndergaard and Edwin Diaz. Both have multiple years of team control yet, and while the Mets are only 5 games back in their division, they don't have a team that will compete with the Braves or Phillies in the next few years. The Twins have the elite prospects to make a legitimate offer, and should it come to this, they have the cap flexibility (thanks to not overpaying for guys like Kimbrel and Darvish) to take on Yoenis Cespedes' albatross of a contract to provide further cap relief for the Mets.

[Miles Tones]

I have no problem passing on Kimbrel. We have a deep farm system, with a lot of guys Rule 5 eligible this year and not enough room to keep them. It's time to start packaging some of our minor league talent for some controllable relief assets.

[Major League Ready]

 

When all else fails, break out the ol' "they wouldn't want to come to Minnesota anyway" excuse, I guess.

 

Yes, there is no validity to that statement. I was listening to the front office on XM radio and Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette (former GMs).  A caller called in with the same why doesn't team X just sign player so and so.  They both piled on pretty heavily that players know where they want to go and the process facilitates them getting the money they want on the team they want to go to.  They were quite clear and insistent that fans are not realistic in their expectations.  It's without question a reality we must face and to characterize this situation is an excuse is a fanatical response IMO. 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Major League Ready

[SomeGuy]

 

Well for one thing, the Twins weren't a 90 loss team.

 

It was a terrible trade, it was always a terrible trade, and would have been a terrible trade even IF the Twins were a 90 loss team, and expected to BE a 90 loss team.

 

I do agree the Twins have an abundance of mid-tier prospect types, and I have no problem trading them for bullpen help. I'd have wanted more bullpen upgrades even if they'd landed Kimbrel. But I can guarantee you there will be much whining and gnashing of teeth over it, if and when it happens.

 

And we won't get back anyone as good as Pressly, nor likely as good as Kimbrel.

Houston made Pressly into the elite pitcher he is now. He would not be performing at this level if he was still with us.

 

His track record with us

2016 3.70 ERA 3.74 FIP

2017 4.70 ERA 4.36 FIP

2018  3.40 ERA 2.95 FIP

with Houston

2018 0.70 ERA 1.49 FIP

2019 0.93 ERA 2.25 FIP

 

No more than fifteen minutes after he finished unpacking in the clubhouse, Pressly was summoned into a meeting. In attendance were Astros pitching coach Brent Strom, bullpen coach Doug White, and multiple analysts from the front office. The Astros, Pressly learned, had a plan for him to be better, and the analysts launched into the details. “They sat me down and they put up all these x, y charts and all this other stuff,” Pressly says. “It almost sounded like they were speaking in a different language.

 

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2019/6/3/18644512/mvp-machine-how-houston-astros-became-great-scouting

[Major League Ready]

 

What about Duffey?  Am I being too Optimistic when I say he looks quite different to me of late.  Better command and more life on his FB? I still agree completely we need add another reliable late inning guy regardless of Duffey's improvement but could he be part of the answer?

Edited June 7, 2019 by Major League Ready

[markos]

 

Well, it happens every single year. There will be plenty of good relievers traded in the next two months, and I bet some will outperform Kimbrel the rest of this season. When I say "Pressly types" I'm talking strictly about young-ish relievers with good stuff on the top of their games. It's ideal, not essential, they're controllable past this year. Not sure why people are acting like such commodities no longer exist? 

You are kind of moving goal posts here. Your quote in the article was

 

But from my view, they should be seeking to execute the same blueprint that landed Ryan Pressly in Houston last summer: trading mid-tier prospects for prime-aged relievers, ideally with an untapped strength, under multiple years of control. There should be no shortage of such opportunities in the coming weeks, and the Twins have no shortage of prospects do deal with.

 

 

If you look at last year's trade deadline, how many relievers actually qualify for that criteria?

Jake Diekman? Nope

Brandon Kintzler? Nope

Brad Ziegler? Nope

Keone Kela? Yes? Currently demoted to AAA.

Roberto Osuna? Yes, though dumped by the Blue Jays because of domestic abuse suspension

Brad Brach? Nope

Ryan Pressly? Yes

Sam Tuivailala? Nope

Joakim Soria? Nope

Seungwhan Oh? Nope

Nathan Eovaldi? Pending FA

Matt Andriese? Nope

Zach Britton? Pending FA

Jeurys Familia? Pending FA

Brad Hand? Yes? Required a top 50-to-100 prospect to acquire.

 

So, depending on how stringent we take your criteria, there might be 1-5 relievers available, which I wouldn't exactly describe as "no shortage" - especially when almost every single playoff contender is looking for bullpen help. We can kind of assume that the Rays, Astros and Yankees are pretty set. But that leaves the Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, and Dodgers to compete with the Twins.

[USAFChief]

 

I think the way the front office handled the draft this week shows signs of them gearing up to unload some prospects soon for pitching help. The FO seems to be heading toward drafting bats and trading for pitching, which I think is a decent strategy.

 

I would not be surprised if the Twins are able to land a guy or two who outperforms Kimbrel, and maybe Pressly, through the end of the season.

 

I wonder what the asking price from the Mets would be for a package of guys including Syndergaard and Edwin Diaz. Both have multiple years of team control yet, and while the Mets are only 5 games back in their division, they don't have a team that will compete with the Braves or Phillies in the next few years. The Twins have the elite prospects to make a legitimate offer, and should it come to this, they have the cap flexibility (thanks to not overpaying for guys like Kimbrel and Darvish) to take on Yoenis Cespedes' albatross of a contract to provide further cap relief for the Mets.

First of all, there's no cap in baseball. There's a luxery tax penalty, but that's not a factor for most teams.

 

Second, Who are you going to give up to get Syndergaard and Diaz? I don't think the Twins have the prospects to play in that end of the pool if the Mets did decide to package those two. And I don't think the Mets sell anyway. They were busy acquiring players this past winter trying to win now.

 

And finally, the Twins can't spend the money to acquire Kimbrel, but have the money to provide the Mets salary relief by taking on Cespedes' contract?

 

 

 

[USAFChief]

 

Houston made Pressly into the elite pitcher he is now. He would not be performing at this level if he was still with us.

 

 

 

 

First of all, I disagree with this take, which is pretty common place here. Pressly was the Twins best, or second best reliever when traded. 

 

But even if we accept this as fact, what makes you think the Twins, one year later, will turn the guy(s) they acquire into elite reliever(s), if they couldn't do it with Pressly?

 

I mean, they have a new pitching coach, but what else has changed?

 

And most importantly...if it HAS changed, why wouldn't Pressly be the same guy he is now, if he had stayed with the Twins?

[Mike Sixel]

What about Duffey? Am I being to Optimistic when I say he looks quite different to me of late. Better command and more life on his FB? I still agree completely we need add another reliable late inning guy regardless of Duffey's improvement but could he be part of the answer?

I keep hoping on him. He should be, imo, more successful than he is.