Twins confirm interest in signing pitchers Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel

[USAFChief]

WHY HASN'T THIS HAPPENED YET? WHAT ARE THEY WAITING FOR???

[Squirrel]

 

WHY HASN'T THIS HAPPENED YET? WHAT ARE THEY WAITING FOR???

I think we all know the answer to that.

[USAFChief]

 

I think we all know the answer to that.

SPEAK UP!11!!! WE CAN'T HEAR YOU!!1!!!

[Squirrel]

 

SPEAK UP!11!!! WE CAN'T HEAR YOU!!1!!!

Get a hearing aid, Old Man.

[Mike Sixel]

Looks like the Yankees are the favorites for Keuchel right now....

[USAFChief]

 

Looks like the Yankees are the favorites for Keuchel right now....

He gonna shave the beard???

[Mike Sixel]

 

He gonna shave the beard???

 

That will be interesting for sure.....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think if I'm the Nats, I have to decide if I want to keep trying to compete with the Phillies and Braves with a team that seems to be declining, or pull a 2016 Yankees, and sell off valuable pieces in return for hauls and avoid a potential rebuild altogether.

The 2016 Yankees didn't trade anything remotely like 2.5 years of Max Scherzer, arguably the top SP in baseball.

 

Their biggest move was trading 2.5 years of Andrew Miller, which was admittedly a bold move but very different than trading a starting pitcher. Note that, almost 3 years later, the "haul" for Miller -- including two top 100 prospects -- hasn't really produced much of anything in MLB (although the Yankees did use Justus Sheffield to get James Paxton 2.5 years later).

 

Their next biggest move was trading another reliever, pending FA Chapman (who they later re-signed). They got Gleyber Torres back in that deal, which was pretty incredible. I'm guessing the Nationals and every other team in MLB would deal Chapman for Torres under the same circumstances, but again, very different from dealing Scherzer.

 

Beyond that, they also traded two more minor pending FAs in Beltran and Nova for nothing impressive, although they did use a player from the Beltran deal (Dillon Tate) to help rent Zack Britton last year.

 

Not really a blueprint for the Nationals trading Scherzer to "avoid a rebuild". Losing Scherzer would put them at such a talent deficit over the next 2.5 years, they might as well be rebuilding anyway.

 

But Rendon, Doolittle, Kendrick could perhaps be dealt. Maybe even Strasburg, with his opt out. And those guys could return some pieces to complement Scherzer, Corbin, Soto, Turner, and Robles.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Rendon is gone (or at least he's UFA) after this year, and he is by far their best offensive player.  In fact, they only have 5 players above a 100 wRC+, and two of them are Howie Kendrick and Kurt Suzuki--not exactly great building blocks.  A third is Gerardo Parra, who is 32, and has only been a 3 WAR player once in his career, and that was 6 years ago.  4 of their top 8 prospects are pitchers (2 at AA, one at A+, and the other in rookie ball--HS pick last year).

You can't just ignore Soto, Turner, and Robles to imply that the Nationals position player outlook is barren. Those are three very good, young players, controlled for the next 4-6 years. That's a young position player core that rivals the Phillies for sure, and isn't too far off from the Braves.

[jkcarew]

 

I think we all know the answer to that.

Haggling over the 8th year?

[Puckett34]

 

Me just waiting around for ANY news at all.

[Mike Sixel]

JG
3:41 Is 3/$42 million too much for Kimbrel?
Keith Law
3:42 I'd give him 2/$30 million rather than the third year.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

The 2016 Yankees didn't trade anything remotely like 2.5 years of Max Scherzer, arguably the top SP in baseball.

 

Their biggest move was trading 2.5 years of Andrew Miller, which was admittedly a bold move but very different than trading a starting pitcher. Note that, almost 3 years later, the "haul" for Miller -- including two top 100 prospects -- hasn't really produced much of anything in MLB (although the Yankees did use Justus Sheffield to get James Paxton 2.5 years later).

 

Their next biggest move was trading another reliever, pending FA Chapman (who they later re-signed). They got Gleyber Torres back in that deal, which was pretty incredible. I'm guessing the Nationals and every other team in MLB would deal Chapman for Torres under the same circumstances, but again, very different from dealing Scherzer.

 

Beyond that, they also traded two more minor pending FAs in Beltran and Nova for nothing impressive, although they did use a player from the Beltran deal (Dillon Tate) to help rent Zack Britton last year.

 

Not really a blueprint for the Nationals trading Scherzer to "avoid a rebuild". Losing Scherzer would put them at such a talent deficit over the next 2.5 years, they might as well be rebuilding anyway.

 

But Rendon, Doolittle, Kendrick could perhaps be dealt. Maybe even Strasburg, with his opt out. And those guys could return some pieces to complement Scherzer, Corbin, Soto, Turner, and Robles.

 

Wherein did I say trading Scherzer was identical to what the Yankees did?  I said they could act like the Yankees did--a team that expected to contend that wasn't, and rather than just running things back, acted aggressively to improve their future state.  As you noted, doing so has allowed them to have Paxton, Torres, and Britton, 3 key members of their current team.  And while the two top 100 prospects in the Miller trade haven't become stars (as of now), I'll point you to Tampa trading 3.5 years of Chris Archer for Meadows and Glasnow as a not unrealistic possibility for what can happen when you get top 100 prospects.

 

Perhaps I should have worded more carefully; trading Scherzer now can help the Nationals shorten a rebuild.  After all, it's a lot easier to get back up if you avoid rock bottom.  If the Nats do intend to build around Soto, Robles, Turner, Kieboom, and Corbin, getting additional players in that age range can turn a nucleus into a core.  The Nats will need to decide how seriously they'll be able to compete the next two years (when Scherzer will be 35 and 36)--my assertion is that selling Scherzer at the height of his value may be the best move.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

You can't just ignore Soto, Turner, and Robles to imply that the Nationals position player outlook is barren. Those are three very good, young players, controlled for the next 4-6 years. That's a young position player core that rivals the Phillies for sure, and isn't too far off from the Braves.

 

I didn't ignore them, I was pointing out the dearth of producing offensive talent on this Nats team, and the likelihood that what talent they do have that is currently producing could largely be elsewhere/in full decline mode soon.  Soto is the one young guy who is above average offensively currently--that being said, his k rate is up, bb rate is down, and his babip is somewhat inflated.  Given how bad he is defensively, any slip in offense impacts his value greatly.

 

Turner's wRC+ for the last 3 years (including his injury-shortened 2019) are 104,105, and 88.  He's maintained value due to good defense and baserunning, but both have disappeared this year.  Given that the injury that's cost him time this year was a broken finger, it's possible this is the beginning of the end of his elite speed, which could render him a decent player only.

 

Robles has seen his k rate surge, which when combined with a collapse in his hard hit %, but a babip not far off his career numbers, suggest he's not a surefire offensive weapon.  His defense has never been great, so failure to hit makes him dangerously close to replacement level.

 

Kieboom has less than 50 MLB PA's, but struck out 37% of the time, while only slugging .282.  An absurdly low .143 babip and really good 43.5% hard hit rate suggest those numbers will improve, but he's clearly not going to step in and be a key cog in a playoff-level offense just yet.

 

While all 4 of those players are intriguing, other than Soto, I don't know that you can say with confidence they're going to have 40% of a 1st division lineup in the next couple of years.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wherein did I say trading Scherzer was identical to what the Yankees did? I said they could act like the Yankees did--a team that expected to contend that wasn't, and rather than just running things back, acted aggressively to improve their future state. As you noted, doing so has allowed them to have Paxton, Torres, and Britton, 3 key members of their current team. And while the two top 100 prospects in the Miller trade haven't become stars (as of now), I'll point you to Tampa trading 3.5 years of Chris Archer for Meadows and Glasnow as a not unrealistic possibility for what can happen when you get top 100 prospects.

 

Perhaps I should have worded more carefully; trading Scherzer now can help the Nationals shorten a rebuild. After all, it's a lot easier to get back up if you avoid rock bottom. If the Nats do intend to build around Soto, Robles, Turner, Kieboom, and Corbin, getting additional players in that age range can turn a nucleus into a core. The Nats will need to decide how seriously they'll be able to compete the next two years (when Scherzer will be 35 and 36)--my assertion is that selling Scherzer at the height of his value may be the best move.

FWIW, Britton is in NY this year as a FA signing. They only got to rent him briefly via trade.

 

The Yankees punted on one season, with 2 months to go. They didn't punt 2+ seasons. The Yankees traded away maybe 5 future WAR in 2016, mostly Miller. Scherzer might approach 5 WAR in just half a season all by himself, and is controlled for 2 more. Trading a guy like that usually isn't a recipe for avoiding rock bottom, it is the biggest fall toward rock bottom.

 

Theoretically if someone is willing to give up multiple elite prospects and take on all of Scherzer's salary, I agree the Nationals would have to consider that. But generally that's not how these negotiations go (Verlander returned far less in prospects, and Sale cost far less in salary). The more realistic outcome of a Scherzer trade is getting a less than elite prospect package and/or eating significant cash. I don't think they are far enough behind Philly and Atlanta to warrant that.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

FWIW, Britton is in NY this year as a FA signing. They only got to rent him briefly via trade.

The Yankees punted on one season, with 2 months to go. They didn't punt 2+ seasons. The Yankees traded away maybe 5 future WAR in 2016, mostly Miller. Scherzer might approach 5 WAR in just half a season all by himself, and is controlled for 2 more. Trading a guy like that usually isn't a recipe for avoiding rock bottom, it is the biggest fall toward rock bottom.

Theoretically if someone is willing to give up multiple elite prospects and take on all of Scherzer's salary, I agree the Nationals would have to consider that. But generally that's not how these negotiations go (Verlander returned far less in prospects, and Sale cost far less in salary). The more realistic outcome of a Scherzer trade is getting a less than elite prospect package and/or eating significant cash. I don't think they are far enough behind Philly and Atlanta to warrant that.

 

It is a recipe for avoiding rock bottom if the return is a parachute and a trampoline.  It's my whole point--if you can't win this year (36% chance to make the playoffs, 5th in line for a wild card), and you don't think you'll be there the next two either, why sit around for two more years of mediocrity, and then start the rebuild?  Instead, start the rebuild now with the best piece you have, since it's not going to do you any more real good?

 

This is the crux of my argument from our discussion of the Angels situation in the Trout thread.  Early returns (and it is still early, as it's a 3 year timeframe) indicate I was right.  The Angels are 4th in their division, 10th in their league, have a 0 run differential and a 4.5% chance at the playoffs with an 80 win projection.  The instant your current core can no longer realistically get you to the postseason, let alone compete in the postseason, tear down and shorten your rebuild.  If not, you'll be the Orioles who didn't start their rebuild until halfway through the 2018 season, and therefore, will have 2-3 more years of abysmal baseball to muddle through.

 

As for the Nats getting a return package along with salary relief, that's why I proposed adding Rendon.  Pairing those two should make a team willing to pay in both prospects and dollars.

[Mike Sixel]

It is a recipe for avoiding rock bottom if the return is a parachute and a trampoline. It's my whole point--if you can't win this year (36% chance to make the playoffs, 5th in line for a wild card), and you don't think you'll be there the next two either, why sit around for two more years of mediocrity, and then start the rebuild? Instead, start the rebuild now with the best piece you have, since it's not going to do you any more real good?

 

This is the crux of my argument from our discussion of the Angels situation in the Trout thread. Early returns (and it is still early, as it's a 3 year timeframe) indicate I was right. The Angels are 4th in their division, 10th in their league, have a 0 run differential and a 4.5% chance at the playoffs with an 80 win projection. The instant your current core can no longer realistically get you to the postseason, let alone compete in the postseason, tear down and shorten your rebuild. If not, you'll be the Orioles who didn't start their rebuild until halfway through the 2018 season, and therefore, will have 2-3 more years of abysmal baseball to muddle through.

 

As for the Nats getting a return package along with salary relief, that's why I proposed adding Rendon. Pairing those two should make a team willing to pay in both prospects and dollars.

The Angels have lost, what, three starting pitchers and a great hitter to injury? I'm guessing if those were healthy, things would be different. That said, I agree on Sherzrer, if they can get two or three top fifty players and two would cards, sure. Doubt anyone does that though.

[Rigby]

 

 

Me just waiting around for ANY news at all.

I thought that was El Chapo in maximum security. My mistake.....

[Mike Sixel]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/welcome-to-the-cold-a-c-league/

[Riverbrian]

 

It is a recipe for avoiding rock bottom if the return is a parachute and a trampoline.  It's my whole point--if you can't win this year (36% chance to make the playoffs, 5th in line for a wild card), and you don't think you'll be there the next two either, why sit around for two more years of mediocrity, and then start the rebuild?  Instead, start the rebuild now with the best piece you have, since it's not going to do you any more real good?

 

This is the crux of my argument from our discussion of the Angels situation in the Trout thread.  Early returns (and it is still early, as it's a 3 year timeframe) indicate I was right.  The Angels are 4th in their division, 10th in their league, have a 0 run differential and a 4.5% chance at the playoffs with an 80 win projection.  The instant your current core can no longer realistically get you to the postseason, let alone compete in the postseason, tear down and shorten your rebuild.  If not, you'll be the Orioles who didn't start their rebuild until halfway through the 2018 season, and therefore, will have 2-3 more years of abysmal baseball to muddle through.

 

As for the Nats getting a return package along with salary relief, that's why I proposed adding Rendon.  Pairing those two should make a team willing to pay in both prospects and dollars.

 

I'd blow the Angels up.

 

The Nats... I'm keeping my core and trying again. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

As I said, I'd certainly give them a call.  Dolittle is also a probable arm they'd sell on and I'd have interest in him too.  Won't hurt to ask and if they field an offer - I'd give them a good one.

 

But I don't think we need to include Lewis/Kiriloff and Graterol/Balazovic/Duran.  Trade deadline returns have simply not been that great lately to feel like it would take an offer of that magnitude.  Everyone is on the table, but relative to past cost to acquire a starter I think putting Kiriloff on the table alone is better than they'll see as a centerpiece from much of anyone else.  It may not take as much after that as people think.

I agree. I'd give up Kiriloff but that's a massive salary take for the Twins, particularly for a pitcher. I'd throw in one or two 10-20 guys to sweeten the pot but not more than one top five guy.

[Otwins]

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/welcome-to-the-cold-a-c-league/

Interesting evaluation.  Shows Keuchel as being way more valuable than Kimbrel. Thanks for posting

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Interesting evaluation.  Shows Keuchel as being way more valuable than Kimbrel. Thanks for posting

Uh... Yes?

 

As a starter, Keuchel is more valuable, but only over what you're replacing on the roster. 

 

The Twins have a pretty good starting rotation and a pretty shaky bullpen. It's hard to see Keuchel being more valuable unless you also factor in Pineda moving to the bullpen and being good.

 

And really, the Twins are already looking to the postseason so maximum regular season improvement is not the same as postseason improvement.

[jorgenswest]

I guess it wasn’t only the draft pick keeping teams from signing Keuchel and Kimbrel.

 

As soon as they get their demand in line with the market they will have a contract.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

The Angels have lost, what, three starting pitchers and a great hitter to injury? I'm guessing if those were healthy, things would be different. That said, I agree on Sherzrer, if they can get two or three top fifty players and two would cards, sure. Doubt anyone does that though.

 

By great hitter, do you mean Upton or Ohtani?  Ohtani has a 90 wRC+, -0.2 WAR, and a .690 OPS--the very definition of replacement level.  Sure, his babip is sub .300, and his hard hit rate is nearly 45%, but even if his babip goes up, he just moves towards good, not great.  Even that might not help that much, since his GB rate has skyrocketed to over 53%, and he's sitting on an unsustainable 33% HR/FB ratio.

 

If you mean Upton, he was pegged for about 2 WAR entering the season, a season in which he'll turn 32.  The track record for hitters at 32 and after is not great.  Add in the reality of his injury (which is to his toe), and it's possible he's not what he's been even when he comes back--ask Byron Buxton what playing with a not fully 100% toe can do to your game.

 

The problem the Angels have is that even when the season started they were projected to be 15 games behind the Astros, so getting 3 WAR from each of the starting pitchers (which is more than any of them have ever produced) and 3 WAR from Upton still leaves them 3 games back of the Astros.  Meanwhile, despite having two legitimately great hitters come out of nowhere (Fletcher is on pace for nearly 6 WAR after having a 56 wRC+ in AAA 2 years ago, La Stella is on pace for 5.5 WAR after being worth 0.2 in 123 games last year), their projection has fallen to 79 wins, almost 25 games behind the Astros, a team with a much better roster, and a better farm system.

[IndianaTwin]

From Rotoworld.com...

 

 

CRAIG KIMBREL
RP, BOSTON RED SOX

An unnamed club executive tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post that free agent reliever Craig Kimbrel is a "priority" for the Twins.
Kimbrel is no longer tied to draft-pick compensation, as the 2019 MLB Draft got started on Monday and will conclude on Wednesday, so a number of teams are suddenly checking in on his market. Beyond the Twins, who are up big on first place in the AL Central, the Cubs are also known to have serious interest. Sherman hears that Kimbrel is "still trying to score a multi-year deal" despite several months of low-ball offers, or no offers at all. There should be some kind of tangible movement with the veteran closer this week.

RELATED: Minnesota Twins, Chicago Cubs
SOURCE: New York Post
Jun 5, 2019, 10:09 AM ET

[Mike Sixel]

By great hitter, do you mean Upton or Ohtani? Ohtani has a 90 wRC+, -0.2 WAR, and a .690 OPS--the very definition of replacement level. Sure, his babip is sub .300, and his hard hit rate is nearly 45%, but even if his babip goes up, he just moves towards good, not great. Even that might not help that much, since his GB rate has skyrocketed to over 53%, and he's sitting on an unsustainable 33% HR/FB ratio.

 

If you mean Upton, he was pegged for about 2 WAR entering the season, a season in which he'll turn 32. The track record for hitters at 32 and after is not great. Add in the reality of his injury (which is to his toe), and it's possible he's not what he's been even when he comes back--ask Byron Buxton what playing with a not fully 100% toe can do to your game.

 

The problem the Angels have is that even when the season started they were projected to be 15 games behind the Astros, so getting 3 WAR from each of the starting pitchers (which is more than any of them have ever produced) and 3 WAR from Upton still leaves them 3 games back of the Astros. Meanwhile, despite having two legitimately great hitters come out of nowhere (Fletcher is on pace for nearly 6 WAR after having a 56 wRC+ in AAA 2 years ago, La Stella is on pace for 5.5 WAR after being worth 0.2 in 123 games last year), their projection has fallen to 79 wins, almost 25 games behind the Astros, a team with a much better roster, and a better farm system.

The Astros might be the model franchise right now. If you believe sustained competitiveness is a real thing, when could the Angels ever compete with them? I'm not into giving up because there is a great team in your division.

[jimbo92107]

 

He really didn't.

 

Go look at his second half game logs: 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=kimbrcr01&t=p&year=2018

 

Synopsis: 22 of 28 appearances from July through the end of the season were scoreless. He gave up more than 1 run in only 2 appearances, a July blown save against the Twins, of all teams, where he gave up 2 runs on one hit, and an appearance against Baltimore in late September where he gave up four runs (and he came back and struck out the side against the Yankees in his next game. 

 

His ERA went from 2.16 on July 1st to 2.74 for the season. 47 K's from Jul-Sep. Only 2 appearances in the second half without at least one K.

 

62.1 IP, 31 Hits allowed, 96 K on the year.

 

Don't let a couple games and the post season fool you. He was a dominant reliever last year.

Chief nailed it. Kimbrel is a well-rested fireball closer with an ERA close to 2. When not overused, he totally dominates. Sounds like a good fit for the high-scoring 2019 Twins. 

 

Keuchel would be a good add, at least for depth. Multi-inning reliever, or a fifth starter, depending on what's left in his tank. His post-season experience could be big in tight situations. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

The Astros might be the model franchise right now. If you believe sustained competitiveness is a real thing, when could the Angels ever compete with them? I'm not into giving up because there is a great team in your division.

 

I didn't say give up.  I said sacrifice now, when you can't compete anyways, for a future when you can.  True, the Astros aren't going anywhere, which makes it all the more imperative that the Angels stop trying to break through to 88 wins and hopefully a wild card, but actually do some radical things to get into the 90's.

[Vanimal46]