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Article: When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling?


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Boston traded for Chris Sale when he was 27 with 3 more years of control with the understanding that it is much easier to extend players when you have them before they ever reach free agency. With that ability, they then extended him through 2024. On top of all of that was the depressed salary that Sale was earning at the time

 

Conversely, Max Sherzer, as great as he is, is currently 34 years old with control through his age 36 season, and he is literally the highest paid pitcher in MLB.

 

If you don't understand why that means that Sherzer will return less of a package than Sale, well, I'll order whatever you're drinking.

I understand the differences between Sale and Scherzer, but I am not sure it makes much practical difference in terms of what actually happens here. It's not like Washington is obligated to deal Scherzer for X% of the Sale return, even if we estimate Scherzer's surplus value as only X% of Sale's.

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If Syndergaard and Scherzer are both "available" come the trade deadline, it would be an interesting debate in regards to which direction to go.

 

What would you do if this is what we would give up for both?

 

A: Syndergaard

FA in 2022. Young, cheap. Chance of extending if all goes well. 

We give up Lewis, Graterol, Gordon.

 

B: Scherzer

FA in 2022. 34, but still one of the best in the game. VERY expensive. 

We give up: Graterol, Rortvedt and Gordon. Washington eats 1/3 of his contract. 

No way Washington accepts that offer for Scherzer. I understand he's getting paid a lot, but he's actually worth what he gets paid. There's a difference between the Nats moving Scherzer and the Cubs trying to move Darvish. They're both making a lot of money, but one of them is actually worth the contract. Scherzer would easily cost Royce, Graterol, and throw a dart for the other top-10 prospect we're throwing in.

 

That being said, if they could find a way to fleece Washington and get Scherzer cheaper than that, that would be amazing.

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I understand the differences between Sale and Scherzer, but I am not sure it makes much practical difference in terms of what actually happens here. It's not like Washington is obligated to deal Scherzer for X% of the Sale return, even if we estimate Scherzer's surplus value as only X% of Sale's.

Right, but then the outcome is that he stays put, not that someone pays Sale price for him.

The Kia dealership isn't obligated to sell me anything, but the result of them demanding Lamborghini money for a Sorrento is that they don't sell the Sorrento.

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No way Washington accepts that offer for Scherzer. I understand he's getting paid a lot, but he's actually worth what he gets paid. There's a difference between the Nats moving Scherzer and the Cubs trying to move Darvish. They're both making a lot of money, but one of them is actually worth the contract. Scherzer would easily cost Royce, Graterol, and throw a dart for the other top-10 prospect we're throwing in.

 

That being said, if they could find a way to fleece Washington and get Scherzer cheaper than that, that would be amazing.

I don't agree with that asking price for Scherzer. I'd think Royce Lewis alone would get it done 100 times out of 100.

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Nobody should be untouchable, esp. left hand hitting and throwing OFs.   Kirilloff's value might be as high as it will ever be and might be replaceable with Larnach, Rooker, and Blackenship squeezing him as an OF and with Kepler signing his extension and Lewin Diaz (finally) having a break through season at 1B.  Don't look, but his OPS is under .666 in AA.  Ditto Lewis.

Got to sell high, esp. in a year when you have a chance to go all the way.

But you got to do it in a smart way and go after controllable talent on the rise, like Caleb Smith of the Marlins.  I'd trade Kirilloff for him any time.

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Right, but then the outcome is that he stays put, not that someone pays Sale price for him.

The Kia dealership isn't obligated to sell me anything, but the result of them demanding Lamborghini money for a Sorrento is that they don't sell the Sorrento.

I agree, and never meant to imply otherwise. But the poster I was originally responding to said "I'm not sure he's going to cost too much in terms of prospects."

 

I think he either costs a lot in prospects, or he stays put. We can also say that's a result of the market valuing him less than Sale, but then the market isn't providing any practical benefit for the Twins either.

 

Edit: also we missed an opportunity for a Paul Sorrento joke!

Edited by spycake
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I don't agree with that asking price for Scherzer. I'd think Royce Lewis alone would get it done 100 times out of 100.

If this was true, I think we'd have seen similar trades in the past, right? Surely some team, at some time, would have wanted 2-3 years of a bona fide ace (albeit an expensive one) more than a top 10 prospect who's 2-3 years away, right?

 

The closest recent example I can recall was Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman, although that was a 2 month rental (and a bit of an outlier trade already!). If the 2016 Yankees had Scherzer circa 2019, I don't think they so readily trade him for Torres -- Scherzer would be much harder to replace in 2017-2018.

 

Russell for Samardzija is another one that was largely one-for-one (sorry, Jason Hammel), although Shark then was still demonstrably worse than Scherzer now (and was only controlled for 1.5 years).

Edited by spycake
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I think we are getting ahead of ourselves.  We have so many players playing above any realistic expectations that once these players come back to normal who knows what will happen.   Many of our hitters have already at homre run levels that if you would have said they would hit that many for the entire season you would have thought, "Great season Jorge Polanco with your 9 home runs".

 

Hopefully it will continue.  

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I don't agree with that asking price for Scherzer. I'd think Royce Lewis alone would get it done 100 times out of 100.

A Scherzer deal would be something like Royce Lewis, 2 others from our top 30 prospects, we pay full salary for Max, and probably more still.

 

A 1 for 1 would be accepted 0 of 100 times from Washington's perspective. You dont trade 2.5 years of the best pitcher in baseball for 1 low minors prospect. Vlad jr wouldn't get Max 1 for 1.

 

But Scherzer is not for sale and wont be at any point this season.

Edited by SomeGuy
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I actually think we might be actual sellers at the deadline, as well as buyers. This team was built to tear down. Lots of expiring deals and 1 year contracts. I doubt the plan was for Cruz, Cron, Sano, Rosie, Schoop, Castro, Parker, Gibby, Perez, Odo, May and Pineda to all be on the team the entire year. I doubt the idea was for Gordon, Arraez, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Vasquez, Kiriloff and Rooker to remain in the minors all year.

 

We may buy, but I'm almost positive we'll be doing some selling to restock the farm as well. Schoop, Castro, Sano and Rosie I think may be shopped along with May, Parker, Pineda and Gibby depending on our adds.

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I hope Washington can be talked into dealing Scherzer. That team is about a bad week from being blown up, IMO.

 

But that will require at least one of the A list Twins prospects. And I'd do that in a heartbeat.

You, sir, are a codger after my own heart. The nats going to sell mode has me all a-flutter. Why stop at Scherzer? See what they want for Doolittle and Strasburg. Then take the deal we like the most.

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Vlad jr wouldn't get Max 1 for 1.

 

Interesting thought experiment! If there was any single prospect that could be acceptable return for Scherzer right now, Vlad Jr. would seem to be it. Elite, already in MLB (and heating up?), mostly at a position of need (3B once Rendon leaves). Toronto might not see the benefit in that swap, though.

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If this was true, I think we'd have seen similar trades in the past, right? Surely some team, at some time, would have wanted 2-3 years of a bona fide ace (albeit an expensive one) more than a top 10 prospect who's 2-3 years away, right?

 

The closest recent example I can recall was Gleyber Torres for Aroldis Chapman, although that was a 2 month rental (and a bit of an outlier trade already!). If the 2016 Yankees had Scherzer circa 2019, I don't think they so readily trade him for Torres -- Scherzer would be much harder to replace in 2017-2018.

 

Russell for Samardzija is another one that was largely one-for-one (sorry, Jason Hammel), although Shark then was still demonstrably worse than Scherzer now (and was only controlled for 1.5 years).

I didn't mean strictly 1 for 1, though I can see how it was written that way.

I meant we shouldn't have to give up another of our big 3 in addition to Lewis.

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A Scherzer deal would be something like Royce Lewis, 2 others from our top 30 prospects, we pay full salary for Max, and probably more still.

 

A 1 for 1 would be accepted 0 of 100 times from Washington's perspective. You dont trade 2.5 years of the best pitcher in baseball for 1 low minors prospect. Vlad jr wouldn't get Max 1 for 1.

 

But Scherzer is not for sale and wont be at any point this season.

See above, it was worded poorly on my part. Just meant you shouldn't need to include another of Kirrillof or Graterol in addition to Lewis.

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I actually think we might be actual sellers at the deadline, as well as buyers. This team was built to tear down. Lots of expiring deals and 1 year contracts. I doubt the plan was for Cruz, Cron, Sano, Rosie, Schoop, Castro, Parker, Gibby, Perez, Odo, May and Pineda to all be on the team the entire year. I doubt the idea was for Gordon, Arraez, Gonsalves, Romero, Thorpe, Vasquez, Kiriloff and Rooker to remain in the minors all year.

We may buy, but I'm almost positive we'll be doing some selling to restock the farm as well. Schoop, Castro, Sano and Rosie I think may be shopped along with May, Parker, Pineda and Gibby depending on our adds.

 

Why would one of the (now) favorites for the ALCS sell? I'm baffled by this post.

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I don't know if the Twins will trade for a top tier starter or not but I am certain they will trade for pen help before the deadline.  They have too many prospects to keep them all.  Too many to expose to the rule V draft.  They should use that capitol wisely and do some trading.  The main weakness on the team is pitching.  Come July they need to make some trades and I am certain they will.

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I hope Washington can be talked into dealing Scherzer. That team is about a bad week from being blown up, IMO.

 

But that will require at least one of the A list Twins prospects. And I'd do that in a heartbeat.

It's gonna take a special talker with special talking skills.  :)

 

If they blow it up... My guess is that they will keep the core of Scherzer, Strasburg, Corbin, Rendon, Robles, Soto and Turner. 

 

My opinion is that they will blow it up by selling (if anyone will take them) the following players: Zimmerman, Dozier, Eaton, Sanchez, Gomes, Suzuki, Doolittle, Rosenthal, Kendrick, Adams, Taylor and Barraclough.  

 

 

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I get that winning now is a priority....but we have a lot of guys that will need to get paid (Schoop, Caron, Gibson, etc.). This team as we know it isn’t staying together beyond this year.

 

I feel like Larnach wouldn’t command a whole lot. A 22 year old college kid who is supposed to be all bat, but has a mid-.700 OPS in single A......I just can’t imagine anyone clamoring for Larnach, aside from a throw-in second or third peice.

 

I’d rather not trade Balazovic or Javier (don’t think you’d get requisite value - Balazovic does t have a long track record and Javier has had injury issues).

 

Go ahead and trade Gordon all you want, but nobody’s giving anything significant for him.

 

Lewis, Alex K., and Graterol should be absolutely untouchable (Graterol may be better if promoted to th MLB than the guy we get in return).

 

Guys like Gonzalves, Thorpe, etc., are all but afterthoughts. We’re not getting anything there.

 

I don’t doubt that we’ll make a trade for some bullpen help. But I just don’t see how you can pull the trigger on a starter at the price they command.

 

I’ve heard absurd takes by guys like Zulgad (not a fan, ahem-hack-ahem), that Sano should’ve been traded long ago, and is a piece right now (you’d get pennies on the dollar).

 

Bottom line: I’d have to be blown away to trade the premier guys in the system (high-end starter with multiple years of control). Nobody else will command much. It’s nice to think about landing Thor. It’s more realistic to beef up the bullpen with a couple solid,but unspectacular, MRs.

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I get that winning now is a priority....but we have a lot of guys that will need to get paid (Schoop, Caron, Gibson, etc.). This team as we know it isn’t staying together beyond this year.

I feel like Larnach wouldn’t command a whole lot. A 22 year old college kid who is supposed to be all bat, but has a mid-.700 OPS in single A......I just can’t imagine anyone clamoring for Larnach, aside from a throw-in second or third peice.

I’d rather not trade Balazovic or Javier (don’t think you’d get requisite value - Balazovic does t have a long track record and Javier has had injury issues).

Go ahead and trade Gordon all you want, but nobody’s giving anything significant for him.

Lewis, Alex K., and Graterol should be absolutely untouchable (Graterol may be better if promoted to th MLB than the guy we get in return).

Guys like Gonzalves, Thorpe, etc., are all but afterthoughts. We’re not getting anything there.

I don’t doubt that we’ll make a trade for some bullpen help. But I just don’t see how you can pull the trigger on a starter at the price they command.

I’ve heard absurd takes by guys like Zulgad (not a fan, ahem-hack-ahem), that Sano should’ve been traded long ago, and is a piece right now (you’d get pennies on the dollar).

Bottom line: I’d have to be blown away to trade the premier guys in the system (high-end starter with multiple years of control). Nobody else will command much. It’s nice to think about landing Thor. It’s more realistic to beef up the bullpen with a couple solid,but unspectacular, MRs.

 

they don't have much help coming, so they should wait for the future to be better? I'm not sure I understand this position. Help me understand.....

 

Because they are projected to win around 95 games this year, and you don't see much help for next year in the minors, so, why wait?

Edited by Mike Sixel
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I get that winning now is a priority....but we have a lot of guys that will need to get paid (Schoop, Caron, Gibson, etc.). This team as we know it isn’t staying together beyond this year.

I feel like Larnach wouldn’t command a whole lot. A 22 year old college kid who is supposed to be all bat, but has a mid-.700 OPS in single A......I just can’t imagine anyone clamoring for Larnach, aside from a throw-in second or third peice.

I’d rather not trade Balazovic or Javier (don’t think you’d get requisite value - Balazovic does t have a long track record and Javier has had injury issues).

Go ahead and trade Gordon all you want, but nobody’s giving anything significant for him.

Lewis, Alex K., and Graterol should be absolutely untouchable (Graterol may be better if promoted to th MLB than the guy we get in return).

Guys like Gonzalves, Thorpe, etc., are all but afterthoughts. We’re not getting anything there.

I don’t doubt that we’ll make a trade for some bullpen help. But I just don’t see how you can pull the trigger on a starter at the price they command.

I’ve heard absurd takes by guys like Zulgad (not a fan, ahem-hack-ahem), that Sano should’ve been traded long ago, and is a piece right now (you’d get pennies on the dollar).

Bottom line: I’d have to be blown away to trade the premier guys in the system (high-end starter with multiple years of control). Nobody else will command much. It’s nice to think about landing Thor. It’s more realistic to beef up the bullpen with a couple solid,but unspectacular, MRs.

Perhaps I’m wrong, but I gotta believe it’s possible for us to acquire all of Givens, Doolittle, and Stroman (all of which are more than just unspectacular middle relievers) without having to surrender any of Lewis, Kirilloff, Graterol, Balazovic, Larnach, Duran, Miranda, or Javier. Yeah, our system’s depth may take a significant hit because of our reluctancy, but at least the quality will remain and will still be available for us to utilize during the offseason and next season’s deadline.

 

However, while I realize that not all top prospects pan out, I also have a really good feeling about Lewis, Kirilloff, and Graterol, which why I’d only consider these 3 as absolutely untouchable. Perhaps this is blind faith, but I’m willing to die on this hill.

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Why would one of the (now) favorites for the ALCS sell? I'm baffled by this post.

Not sellers per se. I suspect we'll be both because their stated goal is sustained success. I'm not sure they can help themselves. Same reason we traded for jaime Garcia then traded him days later. We feel like we can trade some of our talent and still win. Arraez for Schoop, Kiriloff for Crohn, etc. If we add people, we'll have to make room. There's no chance we resign everyone next year. We'll be tempted to grab a return before they go. But agreed, not at the expense of the division.

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Not sellers per se. I suspect we'll be both because their stated goal is sustained success. I'm not sure they can help themselves. Same reason we traded for jaime Garcia then traded him days later. We feel like we can trade some of our talent and still win. Arraez for Schoop, Kiriloff for Crohn, etc. If we add people, we'll have to make room. There's no chance we resign everyone next year. We'll be tempted to grab a return before they go. But agreed, not at the expense of the division.

 

Other than Pineda, who would be unneeded if we picked up another starter (and who I don't trust in the pen), who? 

 

Pineda makes sense if they picked up Stroman and none of the other starters are hurt, but I don't think this FO is going to sell pieces at the deadline when the team continues to look like a team that can go deep into the playoffs.

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Not sellers per se. I suspect we'll be both because their stated goal is sustained success. I'm not sure they can help themselves. Same reason we traded for jaime Garcia then traded him days later. We feel like we can trade some of our talent and still win. Arraez for Schoop, Kiriloff for Crohn, etc. If we add people, we'll have to make room. There's no chance we resign everyone next year. We'll be tempted to grab a return before they go. But agreed, not at the expense of the division.

Cron is under team control for 2020.

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As much as I'd like to believe Washington sells on a guy like Scherzer...I don't see it happening.

 

Which means we focus on MadBum, Grienke, and Stroman.

I think Greinke to the Twins is nearly as unlikely as Scherzer. We're on Greinke's no-trade list. Plus Arizona is in contention, and doesn't seem desperate for further salary relief (they already rank 20th in payroll, behind the Twins). Edited by spycake
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I am not dreaming of Scherzer or Snydergaard or any other stud.  When I look at the team acquisitions they choose lower ranked, upside arm - Odorizzi, Perez, Parker.  

 

But my real thought process is the analysis of what we will have next year. I am not willing to have a one year run and collapse again, so the questions about Cron, Gibson, Schoop...are essential to this equation.  Are we willing to go from bombers to good batters?  Will Kiriloff at 1B, Arraez at 2B be okay after Cron and Schoop have lit things up?

 

In the rotation I have already got Pineda gone (and even replaced in the rotation this year) but Odorizzi has been our clear number 2.  Gibson has stepped back and could be gone.  Perez, we hope, has found magic that will keep him going.  But that is three SP for next year and who replaces them?  In our minor only Graterol looks like he has a chance so if we do not acquire another starter the rotation for 2020 looks weak.

The BP has some very replaceable arms and none in the minors.  

 

So who do I trade?  If I am going for front line talent I trade Lewis or Arreaz.  If it is just prospects then everyone but Lewis, Kiriloff, Graterol, and the pitcher we have the most confidence in with the lower minors.

I a

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Re: Scherzer's signing bonus installments

 

In looking up Greinke, I found that he has similar (albeit smaller) signing bonus installments due, but it was reported that Arizona would be obligated to pay those, even in the event of a trade:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/latest-on-zack-greinke-2.html

 

Which confirms my suspicion about Scherzer -- an acquiring team could ignore those payments, and instead would only be responsible for the remaining annual salary / deferred salary (the ~$105 mil).

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I think Greinke to the Twins is nearly as unlikely as Scherzer. We're on Greinke's no-trade list. Plus Arizona is in contention, and doesn't seem desperate for further salary relief (they already rank 20th in payroll, behind the Twins).

 

 

They are only in contention by looking at their record today.  They had an unsustainable little run a few weeks back that has masked their standing.  The talk in AZ is that this team is not contending and Greinke's elite season so far is ideal to unload his contract.  

 

What makes Greinke more likely is that this is a team that just let several high end free agents leave and traded their star player before the season.  The Nationals tried to keep their star (failed) and made several high profile signings.  They may not be as eager to admit their retool failed whereas the D-backs are clearly in a rebuilding phase.

 

As an earlier poster suggested, the Nationals are more likely to deal around the edges while the D-backs are more likely to put up the yard sale sign.  It's the difference in team intentions going into the season that separates them IMO.

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I think it is also worthwhile to review what happened last year.  The 2 trades that had the biggest impact on the playoffs were made by the Red Sox.  Depending on the source, Beeks was the 7th ranked 2018 preseason Red Sox prospect and Espinal was unranked (or more accurate to say I could not find his ranking).  Although hindsight is always 20/20, the Steve Pearce acquisition was listed as an afterthought on the deadline trade summary.

 

1B/OF Steve Pearce and cash considerations from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for minor league INF Santiago Espinal

 

RHP Nathan Eovaldi to Red Sox; LHP Jalen Beeks to Rays

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-trades-news-rumors-trade-deadline-yankees-braves-dodgers-cubs-red-sox/zpm9eicioqzl1l0r90ftoio3a

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What makes Greinke more likely is that this is a team that just let several high end free agents leave and traded their star player before the season.  The Nationals tried to keep their star (failed) and made several high profile signings.  They may not be as eager to admit their retool failed whereas the D-backs are clearly in a rebuilding phase.

 

As an earlier poster suggested, the Nationals are more likely to deal around the edges while the D-backs are more likely to put up the yard sale sign.  It's the difference in team intentions going into the season that separates them IMO.

The Goldschmidt trade wasn't a long-term rebuilding thing, though -- it was definitely a reloading move. They got their current starting catcher and #3 SP for an expiring asset. I also don't think Pollock counted as "high end" anymore, with his age and recent health/performance. They weren't going to push their payroll to ~$150 mil to re-sign Corbin in that context, but it's not clear that they need to slash it to $100 mil or below either by moving Greinke.

 

Also, you don't address Greinke's no-trade clause which includes the Twins. It's going to be tough enough to move Greinke with his salary without also needing to convince him to waive that no-trade clause. The general likelihood of a Greinke deal doesn't necessarily apply to the Twins.

 

Maybe a Greinke deal is more likely relative to a Scherzer deal, but they're both so unlikely in absolute terms that I'm not sure the distinction matters.

Edited by spycake
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