Carter Stewart to Japan

[AZTwin]

He was a top 10 draft pick of the Braves last year but didn’t sign due to injury concerns. He was projected to go in the first round again this year but instead elected to sign a deal in Japan. Interesting move

[gunnarthor]

https://www.mlb.com/news/carter-stewart-pitcher-signs-japan

[Mike Sixel]

I hope more players do this, and get lots of money. But I doubt it happens.

[gunnarthor]

4m and he can come back to the US as a free agent if a team posts a 20m posting fee. Great deal for him. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/05/draft-prospect-carter-stewart-to-sign-with-japanese-team.html

 

 

[biggentleben]

He had fallen far enough that he wasn't getting that much in the draft, so it is a good move for him. Interestingly, the wrist that gave him issues in 2018 and ended up showing up in an MRI with the Braves that led to the contested change in his offer from the Braves has been favored in his delivery this year. He's not getting the same break and movement on his pitches this year, and many say that he's moving his wrist in his delivery different this year than he was previously.

[gunnarthor]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26797572/passan-how-19-year-old-prospect-turning-mlb-draft-upside-down

 

Good article on the pros for Stewart in this ESPN article. Best case, he makes 3m more and is a free agent 3 years earlier than he would be if he was drafted. 

[Mike Sixel]

I think of it more, worst case he makes 3MM more....

 

Also, just read that in the KBO, the minor leaguers make 22K per year......their travel schedule is better, and they get better food/housing.....

[bighat]

....plus he gets to go live in Japan instead of, say, Danville GA. You can do a lot more interesting things with 4 million in Japan than you can in sticksville. Good for this kid.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I think of it more, worst case he makes 3MM more....

 

Also, just read that in the KBO, the minor leaguers make 22K per year......their travel schedule is better, and they get better food/housing.....

 

That's not the worst case.  The worst case is that he doesn't develop in Japan, and washes out of professional baseball by the time he's 25.  Unfortunately, there's no way to know, but it's possible he would develop better in the US, and go on to sign multiple FA deals.  It's a gamble, and one with a really nice floor, but a gamble nonetheless.

[Mike Sixel]

That's not the worst case. The worst case is that he doesn't develop in Japan, and washes out of professional baseball by the time he's 25. Unfortunately, there's no way to know, but it's possible he would develop better in the US, and go on to sign multiple FA deals. It's a gamble, and one with a really nice floor, but a gamble nonetheless.

And in the process, he's made three million more.... So, yes, that's the worst case. He makes three million more.... No matter what.

[Taildragger8791]

If this started to catch on with high-end prospects I imagine MLB will try to negotiate with foreign leagues to take away this option for draftees. Or simply apply some good old fashioned collusion to ice out the kids that try it unless they turn into a top talent. Anything to avoid treating minor leaguers better.

[gunnarthor]

 

If this started to catch on with high-end prospects I imagine MLB will try to negotiate with foreign leagues to take away this option for draftees. Or simply apply some good old fashioned collusion to ice out the kids that try it unless they turn into a top talent. Anything to avoid treating minor leaguers better.

Possible. But it's also going to be rare. The Japanese league only allows four foreigners per team so they can't just stock up on young overseas talent. But if I'm a late round pick and could get a deal like Stewart got, I'm taking it. If I'm a top 10 pick, I'd probably stay.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

And in the process, he's made three million more.... So, yes, that's the worst case. He makes three million more.... No matter what.

 

Not no matter what--perhaps I explained it poorly.  There is a possibility wherein he develops in the US far better than in Japan, and therefore over his career would make more having made less to start.

[Vanimal46]

Good decision for him financially. He'll get valuable life experience abroad, and if he plays well, enter free agency at 25. Win win.

[biggentleben]

 

Good decision for him financially. He'll get valuable life experience abroad, and if he plays well, enter free agency at 25. Win win.

 

If someone will pay the posting fee and his team is willing to post him...

[diehardtwinsfan]

this wil be interesting to watch... Stewart seems to have found a way around the draft... would be interesting to see if a lot of guys slated late first round through the 3rd round decide this is a better deal

 

I think the timeline is a bit aggressive here too for what it's worth, but a good read:

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26797572/passan-how-19-year-old-prospect-turning-mlb-draft-upside-down

 

 

[biggentleben]

One thing I've heard multiple times already since this deal was signed...MLB teams won't be in a hurry to bring Stewart back and set a new precedent, so this discussion about him being able to return at 25 as a free agent requires his Japanese club posting him, which is not guaranteed, and it also requires MLB teams bidding, and that very well could be another issue, with no rules governing a concerted effort by the league not to bid on a player put up for posting by a Japanese team, so that level of collusion is completely legal in the agreement with NPB.

[ashbury]

One thing I've heard multiple times already since this deal was signed...MLB teams won't be in a hurry to bring Stewart back and set a new precedent, so this discussion about him being able to return at 25 as a free agent requires his Japanese club posting him, which is not guaranteed, and it also requires MLB teams bidding, and that very well could be another issue, with no rules governing a concerted effort by the league not to bid on a player put up for posting by a Japanese team, so that level of collusion is completely legal in the agreement with NPB.

I'm not one for conspiracy theories, and your level of paranoia... seems just about right in this case.

[old nurse]

The only source for the contract is Passan.  No one else has reported a dollar amount other than to quote Passan. Average wage for a player is about 300k. The 7 million for 6 years is way out of line for that.  Historically Japan's teams other than the Giants have not made profits.  My guess would be that what the contract has in it is language that Stewart can make 7 million if performances are met.  The other way it would make sense is the team is betting on the posting system to recoup the money. High risk, high reward. That is betting Stewart can land a 35 million dollar contract. Kikutchi was a star pitcher and could land only a 43 million contract. Is Stewart's ceiling really that high?

 

Japan's major league rosters can have only 4 foreigners on it. The minor league teams can have as many as the team wants.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

No one else has reported a dollar amount other than to quote Passan. 

Not quite true. Jim Callis had an initial report that it was "over $4 million" too, which suggests that's could be the minimum guarantee, even if the Passan figure includes incentives or something.

 

https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1130884119322333185

[Otto von Ballpark]

Here's a site that says Stewart is "guaranteed close to $6 million, with performance bonuses and incentives that could triple the amount."

 

https://usatodayhss.com/2019/scott-boras-rips-mlb-carter-stewart-skips-draft-for-japan

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

If someone will pay the posting fee and his team is willing to post him...

 

 

One thing I've heard multiple times already since this deal was signed...MLB teams won't be in a hurry to bring Stewart back and set a new precedent, so this discussion about him being able to return at 25 as a free agent requires his Japanese club posting him, which is not guaranteed, and it also requires MLB teams bidding, and that very well could be another issue, with no rules governing a concerted effort by the league not to bid on a player put up for posting by a Japanese team, so that level of collusion is completely legal in the agreement with NPB.

 

Everything I've read suggests he will be an unrestricted international free agent after this 6 year contract in Japan is complete at age 25, so no posting would be required.

 

Or are you suggesting that MLB teams will blackball him in FA at that point, so his only option will be to re-sign in Japan at age 25 and wait to be posted? That might be a stretch. I think if he's good enough, some MLB teams are going to want to add him at age 25. It won't be a mega-contract because they won't know how his performance will translate, and it could even be something short like the Mikolas contract, so he could still be a MLB FA at age 27 or so. If he's good enough, I don't see MLB teams supporting a blackball effort against Stewart because he didn't take the Braves 40% slot ($2 mil) offer, 7 years earlier.

 

Of course, if he's not good enough, or gets hurt, it won't matter much, but he may well bank more money under this Japanese deal than he would have through re-entering the MLB draft.

[Mike Sixel]

One thing I've heard multiple times already since this deal was signed...MLB teams won't be in a hurry to bring Stewart back and set a new precedent, so this discussion about him being able to return at 25 as a free agent requires his Japanese club posting him, which is not guaranteed, and it also requires MLB teams bidding, and that very well could be another issue, with no rules governing a concerted effort by the league not to bid on a player put up for posting by a Japanese team, so that level of collusion is completely legal in the agreement with NPB.

If he's good to great, he will be signed. That's sports.

[biggentleben]

 

Everything I've read suggests he will be an unrestricted international free agent after this 6 year contract in Japan is complete at age 25, so no posting would be required.

 

Or are you suggesting that MLB teams will blackball him in FA at that point, so his only option will be to re-sign in Japan at age 25 and wait to be posted? That might be a stretch. I think if he's good enough, some MLB teams are going to want to add him at age 25. It won't be a mega-contract because they won't know how his performance will translate, and it could even be something short like the Mikolas contract, so he could still be a MLB FA at age 27 or so. If he's good enough, I don't see MLB teams supporting a blackball effort against Stewart because he didn't take the Braves 40% slot ($2 mil) offer, 7 years earlier.

 

Of course, if he's not good enough, or gets hurt, it won't matter much, but he may well bank more money under this Japanese deal than he would have through re-entering the MLB draft.

 

 

Passan has the best knowledge of this of any major reporter out there, and even he has said he doesn't know for sure whether the posting will be required or not. It's a fuzzy area in the way the current agreement is written that leaves a level of interpretation that I would wager is either going to be dealt with before Stewart hits the end of this contract or will be litigated by Stewart and Boras as his contract ends.

 

The point has nothing to do with Stewart passing on the Braves' offer. It has to do with setting a precedent. Teams don't want to set a precedent that upsets the balance of the game, which could lead to him returning to Japan.

 

Of course, this is all assuming health on a guy whose high school season ended early due to injury last year, had something show up in imaging after he was drafted, and has shown favoring to that potential weakness this season. I'm by no means "hoping for" an injury, but the fact of the matter is that he's got some significant red flags for injury, which is why he was tumbling down draft boards this year.

[h2oface]

I like it. Establish a more equitable market. The current one sucks for young players, especially in the early years when they become the new stars.

 

The vets screw the young players with the CBA that they don't get to participate in, but have to conform to while many often get paid a fraction of what they are worth. Jealous that the signing bonuses got too high, the deal was changed to limit the young players and especially the initial bonuses, and for them to get paid more in free agency, often for performing horribly. Now we watch they getting paid while they perform poorly, compensating for the years they didn't get paid while they did. Horrible broken system. And they pay the minor league players well below minimum wage. It is a shame, but that is the state of the system to date.

[nicksaviking]

MLB should embrace this. While the teams lose initial control of the player (which is probably always their over-arching game plan) having the NPL be a feeder system for immediate MLB transition would be a great off season addition that would keep fans interested during non-baseball season. If you had ten or so woulda-been draft picks doing this each year fans would be anxious to see if their team could snag one.

 

The NFL would eat this up, though they are a 100x better at marketing.

[biggentleben]

 

MLB should embrace this. While the teams lose initial control of the player (which is probably always their over-arching game plan) having the NPL be a feeder system for immediate MLB transition would be a great off season addition that would keep fans interested during non-baseball season. If you had ten or so woulda-been draft picks doing this each year fans would be anxious to see if their team could snag one.

The NFL would eat this up, though they are a 100x better at marketing.

 

Except each team is maxed on the number of non-Japanese players that can be on their roster. Many players at the other end of their big league/minor league career have been much more attractive to Japanese teams (if you're a Japanese team hoping to win, would you rather sign a former top prospect who's looking for his last gasp and been in AAA for the last 3 years or a high schooler from the USA).

[Vanimal46]

The NFL would eat this up, though they are a 100x better at marketing.

Nah, the NFL already has a "free" farm system with NCAA football... For the price of tuition/room/and meals, they get ready-made marketed stars to plug into their lineup.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Passan has the best knowledge of this of any major reporter out there, and even he has said he doesn't know for sure whether the posting will be required or not. It's a fuzzy area in the way the current agreement is written that leaves a level of interpretation that I would wager is either going to be dealt with before Stewart hits the end of this contract or will be litigated by Stewart and Boras as his contract ends.

 

The point has nothing to do with Stewart passing on the Braves' offer. It has to do with setting a precedent. Teams don't want to set a precedent that upsets the balance of the game, which could lead to him returning to Japan.

 

I don't think they care too much about balance -- they care about money. That's why they raised the international bonus pool age up to 25, from 23. If there's not a direct cost savings, I don't know if they really care about changing the rules to shut Stewart out. I don't think the foreign league path is going to be lucrative for anyone but unusual cases like this (as opposed to the aforementioned age rule change, which potentially affected a number of Cubans, Japanese, etc.).

 

That said, reading further, I see Japan requires 9 years before true free agency. So even at the end of this 6 year deal, Stewart would have to be posted. But the 6 year term suggests this deal was reached with goal of posting Stewart at age 25, when he will qualify as an international player and bonus pool limits won't apply either. And the posting system isn't quite as wild as it once was -- it's basically just 20% or less of the player's MLB contract. So if a MLB team wants to sign Stewart for 2/20 at age 25, they'd also pay $4 mil to his Japanese team, for a total outlay of $24 mil.

 

https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3560