Article: MIN 3, LAA 1: Pitching Great, Sano Homers Late

[Nine of twelve]

Odorizzi lost at least two third strikes to poor pitch calling. I don't recall any calls where pitches outside the zone were called strikes. That required him to throw more pitches than he should have had to throw, and I'm certain that this was a big factor in the decision to pull him after five.

[Doctor Wu]

 

Arraez sure looks locked in for a kid who just turned 22 and all but skipped AAA.  I think I've only seen a single pitch where he didn't look in complete control, and it was a late swing on a foul ball.

 

Sano seemed to improve a little in each appearance last night. His timing is getting there, and he's strong enough that he can obviously be off a tad and still crush.  I said I would ignore his first 20 PAs, and he had a 45% K-Rate in those.  Glad to see him come through for the team late.

 

Latroy Hawkins needs to go. The way he reads queue cards, or whatever they use, word for word reminds me of listening to my kids read Amelia Bedelia from the I Can Read series.  Some of the pointers that he brings up are good, but the delivery is terrible.  I think he would have more value to the organization just focusing on being a roving pitching assistant and possible talent evaluator.

I haven't heard LaTroy speak on air but I love your reference to Amelia Bedelia and those "I Can Read!" books. We still sell those at my bookshop!

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I've wondered myself what they do with Schoop if he has a season like he is having.  I'd guess Arraez has maybe provided a peak into that answer.  Do wish Gordon would have been healthy so he could have made this call up.  Just want to see what he can be, finally.

Obviously SSS... but if Arraez is hitting well and manages to do so during his various cups of coffee, Schoop probably gets a QO and Arraez and Gordon get a crack at the job if he leaves... and I have to think that Arraez will be the front runner if he keeps it up. Ultimately, they are probably waiting on Gordon/Lewis/Javier to earn it, but outside of Gordon, the others aren't close. 

 

Arraez strikes me as someone who can slide into the Marwin role for what that's worth. 

[twins1095]

 

It looks like his timing is coming back on fastballs. Buttrey didn't trust his slider and was stuck feeding Sano his favorite pitch and got punished for it. Yay for us.

 

Unfortunately he's still lost against good breaking pitches, which isn't unexpected. That first at bat today was one of the worst I've ever seen. Woof.

 

For me the #1 thing I want to see out of him this year is just the ability to survive against decent breaking balls. He doesn't have to crush them, but he can't continue striking out at 45%-55% against sliders/curves/splitters/change ups.

 

The first AB was bad...but hitters are hitting ~.100 against Pena curveballs on the year and he was not the only one to take bad swings on that pitch.

 

In his next 2 ABs he just got under balls that otherwise would have been HRs and had exit velocity's of 94 MPH and 100 MPH.  He also fouled another 100+ MPH exit velocity rope down the line that would have been a double if fair.   

 

Last AB he hit a HR.  He's gonna miss some pitches and strike out a lot, but he will also get on base as much as any other Twins hitter and approach a 30 2B / 35-40 HR / 100 RBI .340-.350 OBP pace per 162 games (those are his career averages per 162 games).

 

His K rate is only an issue if it prevents him from getting 30 2B / 35-40 HR /100ish RBI and a .340ish OBP per 162g.  

 

He hasn't had a spring training and is going to have to get his timing up to speed.  Sano's K issues will be even more prominent during that period of time before ticking down to ~30%.    Be patient. 

 

Again, a healthy Sano will hit 30 2B / 35-40 HR / 100+ RBI with a .340+ OBP.  Those numbers would all rank top 2-3 on the team.  Even though he strikes out, he gets on base as much or more than most other Twins hitters.   

[mikelink45]

Arraez, Adranza combo is great for setting up a trade - so far this FO has shown remarkable ability to get something for the players they drop and Adrianza has a good track record.  I think that a nice package could get whatever we are looking for as we move to the trade deadline.

[Cap'n Piranha]

My two cents;

 

I'm a big fan of Arraez, and have been for a couple of years, but he should be sent back to AAA when Cruz is ready to return.  Keeping Adrianza in order to ensure maximum depth and flexibility is important.  At some point, one of the infielders will get hurt again, and then you can call Arraez right back up.

 

The 2019 projection for the Twins on fangraphs is now just under 95 wins, with a 72.5% chance to win the division.  Interestingly, fangraphs, based on their projections, thinks the Indians are exactly as good as the Twins, as they expect them to lose the division by 5 games.

 

Some teams are described as being greater than the sum of their parts.  This Angels team seems to be lesser than the sum of their parts; they have 11 players with a wRC+ over 100, and yet are 3 games below .500 and in 4th place in an aggressively mediocre AL West.  They are 6-9 against teams with winning records, which means they're exactly .500 in the 32 games they've played against sub-.500 teams.  As I predicted before the season started, the Angels seem set and content to waste yet another year of Mike Trout's prime.

 

If Ohtani and Simmons are both out these next two games, the Twins should get the sweep.

[scottz]

Everybody suggesting trades and DFA'ing assets on a team that is absolutely crushing it should keep their day jobs. When Cruz comes back, you can choose to send down Arraez, Duffey, or anyone else with options aside from Astudillo. When Garver comes back, you can throw Astudillo into that mix. Until and unless we trade FOR someone (like bullpen help, for example), there is just no need to get rid of assets. And Adrianza is still an asset.

[jmlease1]

Angels are not a bad club at all and they have a very solid lineup right now. Not too many easy outs in there and they seem to really go deep into counts with us. Trout is the best player in baseball (even if we've kept him in check), La Stella & Goodwin are having breakout years, guys like Ohtani and Lucroy are not hitters you can sleep on, and even the faded version of Pujols is too smart to be an EASY out. So nice job by the pitching staff again.

 

Rogers outing is why the 8-man bullpen makes me nervous. He looked rusty. Relievers are going to get rusty if they're only pitching every 5-6 days, and unless our starters begin turning in some consistent sub-par efforts, some of these guys are gonna sit too much. We also don't really have a long man in there, which makes the alignment goofy as well: there isn't a single guy in the bullpen you could run out there for more than 2 innings and even that may be pushing it for them.

 

Luis Arraez is off to a wonderful start, good for him. I still think he's the right choice to go back down when some of these guys start coming back off the injured list because I do think he needs to play and it's going to be tough to find him the ABs. Adrianza doesn't need the time in the field as much. I'm also not ready to cut Adrianza loose based on a handful of games from a guy who has 89 games above A ball, and only 3 at AAA. He's doing great and it looks like he's someone that has a future, but I'm consistently baffled by the idea that we should immediately dump a guy off the roster as soon as a young guy shows the first flash of talent...

[Taildragger8791]

 

The first AB was bad...but hitters are hitting ~.100 against Pena curveballs on the year and he was not the only one to take bad swings on that pitch.

 

In his next 2 ABs he just got under balls that otherwise would have been HRs and had exit velocity's of 94 MPH and 100 MPH.  He also fouled another 100+ MPH exit velocity rope down the line that would have been a double if fair.   

 

Last AB he hit a HR.  He's gonna miss some pitches and strike out a lot, but he will also get on base as much as any other Twins hitter and approach a 30 2B / 35-40 HR / 100 RBI .340-.350 OBP pace per 162 games (those are his career averages per 162 games).

 

His K rate is only an issue if it prevents him from getting 30 2B / 35-40 HR /100ish RBI and a .340ish OBP per 162g.  

 

He hasn't had a spring training and is going to have to get his timing up to speed.  Sano's K issues will be even more prominent during that period of time before ticking down to ~30%.    Be patient. 

 

Again, a healthy Sano will hit 30 2B / 35-40 HR / 100+ RBI with a .340+ OBP.  Those numbers would all rank top 2-3 on the team.  Even though he strikes out, he gets on base as much or more than most other Twins hitters.   

 

The 2nd and 3rd at bats were better last night but big fly outs are still just fly outs. When you predominantly try to hit balls in the air you're going to get a lot of those. Nothing wrong with that, but there's no "almost a homerun" credit just because he's strong and hits them hard and high. The actual homerun came against a guy that was feeding him 4-seamers for some inexplicable reason, and Sano did exactly what you'd expect and sent one to the moon. Classic Sano.

 

I'm more than willing to be patient because I see the talent and he won't get better without opportunity. I just struggle to believe he'll sustain those rosy per-162 numbers over an actual full season or against playoff-caliber pitching unless he learns to survive against breaking balls. For his career he strikes out at a 45%-55% clip against anything that isn't a fastball/sinker/cutter. Sure, he'll continue to run into hangers, bad pitchers, or guys who stupidly challenge him on fastballs. That's not a process that leads to consistent success when competition gets tougher. But maybe he's the rare historic bird that makes it work.

 

Also, I'm not sure where the .340-.350 OBP or 30% strikeout numbers came from. His career OBP is .334 and he's never had a strikeout rate below ~36%.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I live in LA and the Angels have 2 Big problems. First, little starting pitching. Any team starting both Cahill and Harvey can't compete. Second, this team can't catch a break. They trade for and develop a good looking young rotation and then Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker and Tropeano all get hurt. Ohtani gets signed, then he gets hurt. Pujols comes over, gets old and gets hurt. They put together a decent lineup for 2019 and Upton gets hurt, followed by Simmons and Ohtani last night. They don't have a great farm system, so when somebody gets hurt they don't have replacements. The Angels just don't have the horses that are actually active to play.   

 

The starting pitching problem was at least somewhat fixable--go after Keuchel, or make a play for Corbin.  As for catching a break, while it's certainly over the top to have 5 starters get injured, the Yankees have also had an insane run of bad injury luck, yet are 10 games over .500 and leading the AL East.  Pujols hasn't been good for a couple of years now, so saying Pujols getting old and hurt is not catching a break is less bad fortune and more bad planning at this point.

 

It seemed to me when Trout signed his extension this past offseason that the Angels were consigning themselves to 2-3 more years of mediocrity barring a run of good fortune.  So far the Angels have been exceedingly mediocre.

[Shaitan]

I don't see them DFA'ing Adrianza at this point. Arraez has been great. But so was Austudillo. The scouting report will get out. Arraez has lots of options left and is 22. Send him down on a positive note, let him learn the game more and improve those weaknesses before MLB exposes them.

 

He'll be back.

[caninatl04]

My votes:

 

The good:

 

2.38

1.77

1.35

1.10

 

Those are the ERAs of the four Twins' pitchers.  It makes me want to ask:

 

"Who are you and what have you done with my Minnesota Twins."

 

The bad:

 

(and I'm stretching for this):

 

O-fers from Bux and Polanco.

 

Any starting lineup that has Adrianza in it.

 

The Terrible:

 

I concur:  When will MLB either:

 

a) go to automated Balls and Strikes, or

"judge" umpires compared to automated Balls and Strikes. 

 

As for the terrible injuries to the Angels, I wish them full recovery in t three days.

[MABB1959]

Can they get anything for Kepler, Adrianza, Cave or Austin? 

[twins1095]

 

The 2nd and 3rd at bats were better last night but big fly outs are still just fly outs. When you predominantly try to hit balls in the air you're going to get a lot of those. Nothing wrong with that, but there's no "almost a homerun" credit just because he's strong and hits them hard and high. The actual homerun came against a guy that was feeding him 4-seamers for some inexplicable reason, and Sano did exactly what you'd expect and sent one to the moon. Classic Sano.

 

I'm more than willing to be patient because I see the talent and he won't get better without opportunity. I just struggle to believe he'll sustain those rosy per-162 numbers over an actual full season or against playoff-caliber pitching unless he learns to survive against breaking balls. For his career he strikes out at a 45%-55% clip against anything that isn't a fastball/sinker/cutter. Sure, he'll continue to run into hangers, bad pitchers, or guys who stupidly challenge him on fastballs. That's not a process that leads to consistent success when competition gets tougher. But maybe he's the rare historic bird that makes it work.

 

Also, I'm not sure where the .340-.350 OBP or 30% strikeout numbers came from. His career OBP is .334 and he's never had a strikeout rate below ~36%.

 

Perks of quoting from memory.  Point being the power has still played.  His OBP was in the low to mid .340s before last season.  Tough to say an injury plagued half season sandwiched with a lot of time playing obviously injured is truly indicative of a previous sample of 1300 plate appearances.

 

Further, he's consistently had an OBP roughly 90 points higher than his average over his career and through those 1300 plate appearances he has a BABIP of ~.360.  His BABIP last season was ~.280.  Normalize the BABIP to his career norm, the average and BABIP normalizes to roughly the career norm as well and gets him into the .340-.350 OBP range.

 

The strikeouts are noise and not liking the strikeouts are purely a style of play preference.  You missed the point with the almost HR comment.  The point was the exit velocity.  Of course, he's a flyball hitter and he's going to hit a lot of fly ball outs when he does put it into play.  The important takeaway is that when he does put the ball in play he hits it hard.  Some of those will be flyouts...a lot of them will be XBH's. 

 

The 162 game pace is not a if he can do it.  That is literally his 162 game pace for his career including his bad season last season, although I did touch up his OBP from .335 to .340-.350 to reflect what I consider a half season not truly reflective of what Miguel Sano normalizes at given his career numbers and the injuries he was facing.   

 

The concerns you note are what prevents Sano's per game pace from being even better than that...not what prevents Sano's per game production from being at that level.  

 

Further, even at a .335 OBP, he still has a higher career OBP than anyone on the team not named Cruz and Polanco.  Polanco's career high OBP is .345.  Sano has had seasons of .352 and .380 OBPs.  

 

Cron, Rosario, Kepler have never even hit .330 OBP which is Sano's career average. Schoop has done it once and had plenty of seasons below .300 OBP.

 

So basically, Sano gets on base as much as anyone not named Cruz and hits for more power than anyone not named Cruz, drives in more runs per game than anyone not named Cruz, and as many runs per game as essentially anyone on the Twins.   

 

That is what his production is now with all of the flaws in his game.   That is not the level his flaws prevent him for reaching.  That is not an opinion. 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Can they get anything for Kepler, Adrianza, Cave or Austin? 

Austin is gone. Kepler was just extended. They might get a lotto ticket for Adrianza or Cave. I don't mind Cave as a 4th OF personally. There's potential upside in his bat and he can play all 3 positions.

 

I think the team is married to Kepler now. Like it or not. That contract is cheap, and I suppose someone would take it off their hands for a prospect, but at the moment, there's no real heir apparent to step in, and there probably won't be for a couple seasons yet. Here's to hoping he finally has that break out. 

[MNT1996]

 

Can they get anything for Kepler, Adrianza, Cave or Austin? 

 

Why would we trade our primary right fielder when we have no immediate replacement who can be consistent there everyday? The more comments I read on this site the more I'm very glad that none of us have any say in what moves the Twins do.

[h2oface]

I got a foul ball Jorge Palanco skied behind the plate in the 9th. It is a cheapy, as I didn't catch it, and just darted to the open spot 15 feet away, and was the first one there, Still cool, my 6th ball lifetime, and a nice reward for being at the game. Tonight I take my daughter and 6 year old granddaughter. Larg percentage of Twins fans at this sparsely attended game. We made a lot of noise when it counted.

Edited May 21, 2019 by h2oface

[Jham]

1. Arraez has passed Gordon as a prospect and on the organizational depth chart, imo. He's only 22 and has more power potential than Gordon based on his frame and contact.

 

2. Adrianza is not a DFA candidate. He's a leader in the clubhouse and apparently one of the hardest workers on the team. He got a start in the outfield and played well. He's actually been one of our hotter hitters after a slow start.

 

3. Sano has easy power to right. I hope he keeps that inside out swing. He gets great trajectory and backspin. When he gets pull happy he generates lots of topspin that limit hits slugging potential as well as exacerbating contact issues.

 

4. I really like this team and look forward to the summer.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

Can they get anything for Kepler, Adrianza, Cave or Austin? 

 

It would be hard for us to get something for Austin since he isn't part of our organization

[h2oface]

 

Can they get anything for Kepler, Adrianza, Cave or Austin? 

 

Long naps are quite nice, but time to wake up.

Edited May 21, 2019 by h2oface

[USAFChief]

 

I got a foul ball Jorge Palanco skied behind the plate in the 9th. It is a cheapy, as I didn't catch it, and just darted to the open spot 15 feet away, and was the first one there, Still cool, my 6th ball lifetime, and a nice reward for being at the game. Tonight I take my daughter and 6 year old granddaughter. Larg percentage of Twins fans at this sparsely attended game. We made a lot of noise when it counted.

You have SIX major league foul balls??

[MABB1959]

It was just a question.   I do not claim to be an expert just wondering if there was a way to make more room for the younger players. 

[70charger]

Arraez reminds me a good deal of Polanco when he got his first taste of the majors. Nothing scares him, he never gives away at-bats, and his contact skills are readily apparent. 

[Riverbrian]

 

It is better to have a problem with too many good players than to have too few. When Garver and Cruz come back, I would personally option astudillo and dfa/trade adrianza, but then again, I am not a professional gm

 

Agree with you 100% on having too many good players. 

 

Disagree about optioning Astudillo.

 

Willans is a guy you fix at the major league level because if he can hit from the catcher position... this rarity will skyrocket his value. Not only value to the team in the pursuit of wins but future trade value that could bring back legitimate talent in return. 

 

Those coaches get paid to coach. Coach him up, add some walks to his repertoire and everyone will be happy. 

[Riverbrian]

 

I live in LA and the Angels have 2 Big problems. First, little starting pitching. Any team starting both Cahill and Harvey can't compete. Second, this team can't catch a break. They trade for and develop a good looking young rotation and then Richards, Heaney, Skaggs, Shoemaker and Tropeano all get hurt. Ohtani gets signed, then he gets hurt. Pujols comes over, gets old and gets hurt. They put together a decent lineup for 2019 and Upton gets hurt, followed by Simmons and Ohtani last night. They don't have a great farm system, so when somebody gets hurt they don't have replacements. The Angels just don't have the horses that are actually active to play.   

 

Inch wide mile deep or whatever. The Angels are near the top of my list of teams that just do it wrong. 

 

They have themselves in a hard to escape death spiral. They spent their budget to the max on a handfull of high priced free agents and drained the farm system acquiring additional talent. 

 

With no cheap talent on the roster and no cheap talent on the horizon. They are forced to continue being an inch wide mile deep. They have to keep spending and keep trading farm talent year in and year out. 

 

And then they are totally dependent on luck/health to compete and like most teams... they just don't get the luck/health necessary. 

 

If I was the GM... I'd blow it up and start over.  

[gil4]

 

Latroy Hawkins needs to go. The way he reads queue cards, or whatever they use, word for word reminds me of listening to my kids read Amelia Bedelia from the I Can Read series.  Some of the pointers that he brings up are good, but the delivery is terrible.  I think he would have more value to the organization just focusing on being a roving pitching assistant and possible talent evaluator.

If he reminded me of my kids reading Amelia Bedelia, he would be my favorite announcer. 
 

Whatever he was saying about Rogers as he threw the pitch that became the tying base hit was accidentally hilarious - something about how he always rises to the occasion (or similar.)

 

Now that Hawk Harrelson is retired, the worst announcer in baseball crown is up for grabs. Latroy is in the mix.

[h2oface]

 

You have SIX major league foul balls??

Well, no, but 6 official MLB balls, total. Well, I don't have all of them now, as my sons each have one.

 

One was a game homer in the left field stands at the Metrodome (not a Twins homer and not caught, but winner of the bounce and scramble, and Eric Milton was pitching is all I can remember now). One was a pre-game homer in warmups at Camden Yards in the left field stands at Baltimore (caught!, don't know who was taking batting practice), and one was during pre-game at Angel Staduim (2012 I think) that was an errant warmup long toss in right field from someone to Matt Capps. Capps either missed or it was so wild that he didn't catch it (didn't see the action), and it had bounced off the rail/wall and hit my son in the head, and then right into my chest with great surprise as I trapped it with my arm and hands. We had just arrived and were doing the finding our seats thing, and not paying attention to anything but that really, and my son, Pax, didn't even see it, and I just saw it as it came toward me after it hit him in the head. Not too hard, as he was fine. I gave him the ball of course, as he "owned" it. Capps made sure he was alright, and signed the ball. Whoopee, eh? 

 

3 WERE foul balls during a game and I only caught one of them. The only one I caught was a towering foul just behind the left field (visitors) dugout at Camden Yards (when I lived in Charlottesville, Virginia for 26 years, as my boys were growing up, I would usually have the Twinscation with them for the series and stay at the Renaissance just down the street a few blocks from the ballpark where the Twins stayed) that some Oriole hit. One was last night at Angel stadium, the one that Palanco hit in the 9th.

 

The first, and the one that made me a baseball fan for life, was at age 8 in 1963 at Metropolitan Stadium on a foul ball hit by The Killer. There was hardly anyone out in the left field side low stands/bleachers that sparsely attended night game. My brother, who is 363 days older than me, and I were wandering around as free range kids at the ball park. We had made a deal with each other, that if either one of us got a ball, that it would be both of ours, and we would share it. You know, double our chances to get a ball! Sure enough, the foul ball was hit by Harmon Killebrew, and I only had to beat my brother to it, as it bounced around and settled in an empty row. And I did. That deal didn't seem so great right then, but it was the deal. The Twins used to do what I remember as "Twins Clinics" in the sixties. I lived in Rapid City, South Dakota, then, and my Dad's brother/my uncle lived in White Bear Lake, on the shores of Bald Eagle Lake, and my grandparents lived in Pipestone, Minnesota. It was in Pipestone while staying with our grandparents, that the Twins Clinic was held at the high school gym. We took our prized ball, and got it signed there. Harmon Killebrew, Bobby Allison, Jim Kaat, Jim Meritt, Rich Reese.... I know there were more, but I can't remember and I can't be sure who. You see, as we became adults, my brother and I would take the special baseball that connected us to our youth, and to each other, with us as we traveled for each visit, and hand it off until the next visit. One year, while on by brother's watch, his 11 year old or so son had taken the ball out of his case, and played catch with a friend, and "lost" it. My brother had told of the sad news upon the next visit. So it was over. Then several years later, when a hedge was removed from his home at Lake Okoboji, the now dirty, weathered, brownish ball was found, and only some very slight traces of signatures remained. He surprised me on a visit and now the ball was again in my possession. We stopped trading the ball off, and I just had it for years, like 15 or so. Then, one summer in 1996, living in Charlottesville, Virginia, I had heard that Harmon Killebrew was coming for a talk and some type of event for the Charlottesville High School baseball team. I was a Radio host at the time, and it turned out that I knew the event organizer, and I told her the story of the ball, and asked if it might be OK if I met with Harmon, if it was possible, and had him resign it. She relayed the story and Harmon was all in. I got to meet with Harmon for about 20 minutes previous to his thing on that Saturday, and he resigned the brown and weathered ball, my glove, my two boys' gloves, and their hats. We reminisced together about the 60s' teams. He was so very gracious, sincere, funny, and kind. And he looked thinner than I remember, in great shape. And I was, at 6 foot then, (I've shrunk an inch since) taller than he was! I was taller than the massive Killer I remembered, and now he is the only signature on the ball.

 

So there are the 6 balls. I guess I have been pretty lucky.

 

Not tonight, though, but lucky to see the 8-3 victory and #32 on the season!

Edited May 22, 2019 by h2oface