Article: DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem

[Mike Sixel]

Two important players hurt, and we talk about batting order and hitting with runners in position as meaningful things? What matters is the health of Cruz and Perez.

[Mike Sixel]

Things don’t necessarily even out. I’d like to see the Dodgers’ splits over that time to see how it played out (yes, I’m too lazy to look).

 

Two bad months and four normal months can make things look bad, yet only the two bad months are an unexpected outcome.

 

After a bad/good stretch, the expected outcome is not the opposite; the expected outcome is normality.

Keep trying. Good luck.

[Mike Sixel]

I didn't see the game because I was driving in the car listening to it so any thoughts I have wouldn't be fair comment as far as the game goes.

 

However... on this point, I have been watching. I want to state that I'm absolutely happy with the way things are being handled... I don't have complaint... however... It appears that players are locked into batting slots in the order and I don't understand the reason why.

 

I know that they are trying to separate rights and lefts to give the opposing manager something to think about when trying to decide between a lefty or righty out of the pen and that is sensible but I've been watching and it is rather obvious that Baldelli has locked in players to similar slots in the batting order.

 

I honestly don't care about batting order... go ahead and put Dave Kingman in the lead off spot... I really don't care... I'm also not a psychologist but I do strongly believe that players will not be emotionally damaged and unable to perform if they are moved around in the lineup.

 

 

If he wants to put Astudillo in the lead off spot... I'm fine with it... But if he did it because Garver usually hits in that spot against lefties and Astudillo is replacing Garver... then I'm not fine with it... because that is auto-pilot managing and I don't care much for that.

What? When Garver doesn't play, Kepler leads off. I don't understand this post. It's about the first time this has happened.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Keep trying. Good luck.

What does that even mean?

[Mike Sixel]

What does that even mean?

People don't get that things don't even out the way they think. That's how casinos make money....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

People don't get that things don't even out the way they think. That's how casinos make money....

Which is exactly what I said... You can't bank on good or bad luck going forward.

 

The last sentence of that post was literally:

"After a bad/good stretch, the expected outcome is not the opposite; the expected outcome is normality."

[wabene]

We already knew that if we even had a couple of injuries that this team would fall apart quickly. I believe this is going to happen.

I think the depth is better than it has been. Marwin stepping up for Sano, the three headed catcher etc

[old nurse]

 

If you sub "Pressly" with "Duffey", you might end up with the same conclusion, unless you saw Pressly blossom with pitching coaches other than the ones Duffey got his "chances" with.  And some of those "chances" were as an ill-placed starter. 

 

The last 2 spots in the pen should be rotating among players who have the hottest arms now.  And I'd argue that Duffey is hotter than Hildenberger, so he should replace him.  If he cools off and someone else is better, replace him.  This team is a contender.  Cannot afford to carry people who are hurting it, esp. if they have options.

Duffey=Pressly, there is a stretch.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The umpire was bad in this game. Garver walked in the ninth, but after the Marwin hit, instead of two on, one out, there were two outs and one on. On the Dixon home run, he struck out on the previous pitch, but the ump called it a ball. That’s a big difference. There were several other missed calls.

 

As for line-up construction, I understand why they are batting Buxton ninth (for confidence reasons), but I think as many at bats as possible for him will also be a confidence booster. I think he should start moving up in the lineup (none of Willians, Kepler, or Adrianza should have batted ahead of him against a lefty, for example). I’d like him ahead of some RBI options.

 

And Garver should be starting as much as possible. He can DH if Cruz is going to miss time.

[Old Twins Cap]

Astudillo swung out of his shoes, trying to hit long flies.

 

HRs can be fun, but also subvert the lineup by going for glory instead of the single to RF.

 

Need to win games like these two losses to the Tigers, however it is done.

 

And you lessen your chances by keeping your best reliever in the BP.

 

 

[USAFChief]

The umpire was bad in this game. Garver walked in the ninth, but after the Marwin hit, instead of two on, one out, there were two outs and one on. On the Dixon home run, he struck out on the previous pitch, but the ump called it a ball. That’s a big difference. There were several other missed calls.

 

As for line-up construction, I understand why they are batting Buxton ninth (for confidence reasons), but I think as many at bats as possible for him will also be a confidence booster. I think he should start moving up in the lineup (none of Willians, Kepler, or Adrianza should have batted ahead of him against a lefty, for example). I’d like him ahead of some RBI options.

 

And Garver should be starting as much as possible. He can DH if Cruz is going to miss time.

why wouldn't Willians bat ahead of Buxton, especially vs a LHer?

[Riverbrian]

 

What? When Garver doesn't play, Kepler leads off. I don't understand this post. It's about the first time this has happened.

 

Kepler has been leading off against RH's.

Garver has been leading off against LH's. 

 

We faced an LH yesterday. Garver wasn't in the lineup. Astudillo was in the lineup instead and like Garver... he was batting lead-off. 

 

Very template-esque. 

[Riverbrian]

 

What? When Garver doesn't play, Kepler leads off. I don't understand this post. It's about the first time this has happened.

 

Here's the template that Baldelli is following. 

 

Vs. RH

1. Kepler

2. Polanco

3. Cruz

4. Rosario

5. Cron

6. Gonzalez

7. Schoop or Garver

8. Castro or Schoop

9. Buxton

 

Vs. LH

1. Garver

2. Polanco

3. Cruz

4. Rosario

5. Cron

6. Gonzalez

7. Kepler

8. Schoop

9. Buxton

 

When Astudillo plays... he typically goes into the slot of the player who isn't in the lineup leaving the rest of the template undisturbed. 

 

When Adrianza or Cave plays... they will bat 7th or 8th and this will push the 6th, 7th and 8th hitters in the template up one place. 

 

It's pretty predictable... I'm not complaining... we are winning. I just don't understand why a template is necessary. 

[dbminn]

A lot of good responses to today's summary. I'll throw my two cents into the ether regarding the themes of the day:

 

RISP - I'm with Brock. Not enough PA to make anything of the slump. K and BB rates are similar to the full-season numbers. They are about the only two categories that have any meaning at 150 PA. As Brock said, expect normal numbers (not above average) the rest of the way.

 

Duffey - He has the pitches to be a good reliever. My cheap-seat take is he's never had control of his emotions. When things get difficult, Duffey seems to get so wound up he can't focus. The game speeds up for him. That said, the issue can be overcome. I'd give him another chance. Let Johnson work with him for a while.

 

Injuries - The Twins can handle the loss of Cruz for a few weeks. Cave and Astudillo can take his PA the next few days. Sano will be there when he's ready to return.  Losing a top SP or RP would be a lot scarier. 

[Tom Froemming]

Had a few minutes to scan the updated numbers this morning. The issue is quality of contact. In two out, RISP situations the Twins have a 15.5 LD% and a 16.3 IFFB%. Those are both quite a bit worse than their overall numbers. That being the case, of course their BABIP in those situations is going to be horrible (.220).

 

Something that's worked out really well for this lineup is being aggressive early in the count. They haven't done that quite as much in these two out, RISP situations. Here's a look at their average pitches per plate appearance: 

 

2 out, RISP PPA: 4.00 (656/164)

All other situations: 3.76 (4,949/1,316)

 

That may not seem like a huge difference, but keep in mind the team with the lowest overall pitches per plate appearance (the Twins) is at 3.79 and the highest (Texas) is at 4.10. 

[Riverbrian]

A lot of good responses to today's summary. I'll throw my two cents into the ether regarding the themes of the day:

 

RISP - I'm with Brock. Not enough PA to make anything of the slump. K and BB rates are similar to the full-season numbers. They are about the only two categories that have any meaning at 150 PA. As Brock said, expect normal numbers (not above average) the rest of the way.

 

Duffey - He has the pitches to be a good reliever. My cheap-seat take is he's never had control of his emotions. When things get difficult, Duffey seems to get so wound up he can't focus. The game speeds up for him. That said, the issue can be overcome. I'd give him another chance. Let Johnson work with him for a while.

 

Injuries - The Twins can handle the loss of Cruz for a few weeks. Cave and Astudillo can take his PA the next few days. Sano will be there when he's ready to return. Losing a top SP or RP would be a lot scarier.

 

Agree with your post entirety.

 

Thinking Nelson Cruz would be healthy for 162 games is a little optimistic.

[SomeGuy]

 

It's interesting how Duffey, who has had chance after chance the last three years is suddenly a guy that so many want to come up because he had one absolutely dominant outing in a blowout on Saturday night...

Duffey has always been good at AAA, career ERA of 2.73 and 1.32 this season. I believe there is something there. It's not crazy to think that these coaches can get him to a decent MLB level. We're not expecting him to be a lights out late inning pitcher but he could be one of those last pieces that the bullpen hasn't been able to find. Let him have his shot at the revolving door that has been the back end of the bullpen.

[rdehring]

Nobody is talking about it, but I see Perez' problem being the fact his routine was messed up this week.  Leaving for paternity leave, not doing what he normally does between starts, seeing his son born, etc.  So not surprised at all when he was a bit off early in the game.  Plus that second home run came after the hitter should have been out as that pitch was clearly a strike.

 

Have noticed that Cruz didn't appear to be his normal self for some time.  Expect a few weeks off may be very good for him.  Hopefully, it isn't something that drags on all season.

 

Also surprised when Astudillo led off.  More surprised he was catching in his first game back...especially from a leg injury.  Getting right handers into the lineup, could see him at third with Gonzalez in left as a better lineup.  Going to be real tough getting all three catchers at bats going forward.  The way Garver ahs been performing, he has to be in the lineup at least half the time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would certainly expect things to even out, but sometimes they don't. The Dodgers had the third-best OPS in baseball last year (.774) but somehow maintained the third-worst OPS with two outs and RISP (.640). They also still won 92 games and went to the World Series, so ya know, things worked out OK for them. Still, what a weird thing to happen.

 

 

Things don’t necessarily even out. I’d like to see the Dodgers’ splits over that time to see how it played out (yes, I’m too lazy to look).

Two bad months and four normal months can make things look bad, yet only the two bad months are an unexpected outcome.

After a bad/good stretch, the expected outcome is not the opposite; the expected outcome is normality.

 

The 2018 Dodgers wRC+ with 2 outs and RISP, by month:

 

March/April: 102

May: 26

June: 129

July: 68

August: 61

Sep./Oct.: 66

 

Here's the link (you have to manually change the "Group By" drop-down menu to "Month"):

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=56,59,216&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=2&startDate=2018-3-1&endDate=2018-11-1&players=&filter=

 

For the season, the Dodgers were at 75. The two worst full season marks in 2018 were BAL (57) and SFG (65).

Edited May 13, 2019 by spycake

[Number3]

When a series split = a problem that sounds like a good sign to me. Injuries are part of all sports so Cruz and Perez will simply have to recover and be replaced in the mean time. Injury is a subject all to itself and it is a fact that players in all sports are either more fragile or are coddled too much or both. The scary thing about the Yankees is that their whole team is injured and there they are right behind the Rays.

 

Hildenberger is another subject all together and reminds me of a knuckle ball pitcher without a knuckle ball. Maybe they think his sidearm delivery and off speed junk is confusing to hitters but they had better think again.

[beckmt]

I agree that if Hildenberger has an option he should be sent down and the bottom two spots be used on a rotating basis, but long term we need a deeper pen.  In the playoffs we will probably have to at some point in time see the Yankees and they will have no problem with 6 inning bullpen games if ahead and starter struggles.  Our pen has to be better to handle clubs like this.

[jmlease1]

 

The umpire was bad in this game. Garver walked in the ninth, but after the Marwin hit, instead of two on, one out, there were two outs and one on. On the Dixon home run, he struck out on the previous pitch, but the ump called it a ball. That’s a big difference. There were several other missed calls.

 

The home plate ump was really inconsistent in his strike zone, especially low and away. It kinda felt like morneau wanted to really rip the guy a couple of times and got elbowed by a producer. Hard to know for sure how much impact it was, because he was consistently inconsistent (it's not like he was handing Detroit the outside corner every inning and squeezing the Twins every inning) but it definitely seemed to hurt the Twins more. I mean, this clown even stepped out to confront Astudillo when our catcher hadn't even turned his head or done anything to show the guy up.

[Doomtints]

This wasn't the best lineup or batting order. Hildy also should not have pitched two games in a row and, if he was pitching, should have been pulled at the first sign of trouble. Pin this loss on the manager.

 

Baldelli put "rest guys on Sunday" over "win the rubber game of the series." It's his choice. It's also a choice he has made 3 or 4 times now with the same result.

Edited May 13, 2019 by Doomtints

[Cap'n Piranha]

IN this series, Twins pitching gave up 13 runs in 36 innings--3.25 ERA.  Hildenberger gave up 4 in 2 innings for an 18 ERA, meaning all other pitchers had a 2.38 ERA.

 

All that is to say--what injury do we think Hildenberger will be diagnosed with today?

[Tomj14]

Hildenberger has been terrible since April 23rd, that is 3 weeks. He has 5 holds on the season and 3 are against Baltimore.

 

[MMMordabito]

Hildy has been pretty good

 

:confused

 

What about

 

.335 BAA

1.8 HR/9

8.19 ERA

4.98 FIP

 

since the middle of last season is good?

[yarnivek1972]

Duffey has always been good at AAA, career ERA of 2.73 and 1.32 this season. I believe there is something there. It's not crazy to think that these coaches can get him to a decent MLB level. We're not expecting him to be a lights out late inning pitcher but he could be one of those last pieces that the bullpen hasn't been able to find. Let him have his shot at the revolving door that has been the back end of the bullpen.

I would expect Duffey to be on the Rochester Shuttle this year. But there is little reason to expect anything different from the last three years.

 

Lots of guys that dominate AAA flop at the MLB level. Lots.

 

As for Hildenberger, as a deceptive motion type pitcher, his biggest advantage will always be against hitters that haven’t seen him before or that haven’t seen him recently. Using him twice in the same series - particularly against a division rival - was probably not wise strategy.

 

It merely emphasises a point almost everyone who is a frequent poster on this board has said since October of last year: the Twins need to upgrade the bullpen if they want to be a legitimate contender.

Edited May 13, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[Brock Beauchamp]

The 2018 Dodgers wRC+ with 2 outs and RISP, by month:

 

March/April: 102

May: 26

June: 129

July: 68

August: 61

Sep./Oct.: 66

 

Here's the link (you have to manually change the "Group By" drop-down menu to "Month"):

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=56,59,216&splitArrPitch=&position=B&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=team&statgroup=2&startDate=2018-3-1&endDate=2018-11-1&players=&filter=

 

For the season, the Dodgers were at 75. The two worst full season marks in 2018 were BAL (57) and SFG (65).

Wow. That is some crazy feast or famine stuff.

[DocBauer]

Just wanted to touch on the whole Hildy vs Duffey scenario.

 

I think Hildenberger has looked pretty bad recently. Not banging on him, just stating a fact as my eyes have seen it. Doesnt mean he cant get back in a groove and be good again. Maybe he could use that AAA re-set.

 

I dont for a second believe Duffey is any kind of pen savior. As Seth quoted in response to something I said elsewhere, if Duffey pitched all the time like his last appearance, he'd never be sent down. True enough!

 

What I DO LIKE, however, despite SSS is his great start to the season thus far at both levels AND increased velocity. Hes no savior. But he might be developing in to the more consistent pen arm we've always wished he might be. More of the Johnson effect. Hopefully.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Wow. That is some crazy feast or famine stuff.

I guess I should have also noted the sample size. It was only 736 PA for the season. 115-130 PA each month. So you'd expect to see some variation similar to player's monthly overall performance?