Article: Minnesota's Rotation: Better than Advertised?

[Cody Christie]

Entering the year, many fans knew what to expect out of Jose Berrios. Beyond that, the rotation was kind of murky. Minnesota has certainly taken advantage of playing some sub-par opponents to start the year. That said, good teams need to beat-up on lesser opponents and survive against strong teams to make the playoffs.

 

The Twins have followed that equation so far this season. Some of their success can be attributed to a rotation that has been better than advertised. Can this trend continue? Or are there some signs of regression?Gibson’s Pending Free Agency

Kyle Gibson is a free agent at season’s end. Don’t shout that too loud in Twins circles. The man Minnesota took ahead of Mike Trout is headed for free agency and he might just be coming into his own. Among qualifying pitchers, only Jose Berrios ranked higher on the team in WAR for last season. His xFIP was just 0.02 points away from the team’s top pitcher.

 

So far this season, there were some rough starts to begin the year. He didn’t pitch more than 5.1 innings in his first three appearances. He also allowed three runs or more during that stretch. In his two start since then, he has averaged 6.5 innings pitched while limiting opponents to three earned runs. He’s struck out twelve during that span and largely kept the ball in the park with one home run

 

Odorizzi’s Mirage

Jake Odorizzi was unbelievable against the Astros on Monday. He was certainly lucky the Twins picked him up in a close game. That’s far from the norm for the team’s middle of the rotation starter. In his first season with Minnesota, he posted a 4.49 ERA with more walks and runs allowed than the majority of the league. The Twins continued to start him, but he soaked up losses while the Twins struggled in the middle of the season.

 

As this season has progressed, he dominated Cleveland with 11 strikeouts in six innings. His start against Toronto was also strong as he pitched into the sixth and allowed one run on six hits. He’s faced Houston in his last two appearances. During that time, he’s limited one of the AL’s best offenses to two runs on 12 hits over 12 2/3 innings.

 

Perez’s Wild Card

Martin Perez was certainly a wild card when the Twins signed him. He hadn’t had much success in Texas, but the front office saw something in him. To start the year, Perez was used in a piggy-backing role, so he was used for less than four innings in his first three appearances. Since joining the rotation, Perez has certainly looked like more than a wild card.

 

In his first four starts, he has pitched 26 innings while limiting opponents to six earned runs on 23 hits. He has posted an 18 to 5 strikeout to walk ratio over this stretch. Batters are hitting .242 against him with a .632 OPS. Granted two of his four starts have been against Baltimore, but he certainly held his own against Houston on Wednesday night.

 

What are your thoughts on the rotation so far? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.

 

Click here to view the article

[MMMordabito]

Yes, the rotation has been a nice surprise so far. 

 

Gibson needs to be given some rope coming off that infection, but it looks like he's getting back to 2018 Gibby.  I'm looking forward to his start in New York.  He pitched really well there last year and didn't seem starstruck by the whole Yankee atmosphere. It all got lost when Rodney got Sanchez'd.

 

Odorizzi has been putting his money where his mouth is stating that he felt the stuff has been there (except for that Philly game that was probably played in a storm that has a name these days).  Now the results are there as well.  I hope he keeps it going and pitches at a pace like he did against Houston.  It's easier to appreciate some of his slower moments on the mound when you can tell he's calculating and in the zone vs. questioning and trying to figure out why stuff isn't working.

 

The FO may have unearthed something in Perez.  I really hope so.  It was a meh depth signing for me at the time.  I didn't have a problem with the signing, but at the price I just felt like he was a dart to be thrown along with Mejia and Stewart for that 5th spot.

 

Now the negative, Pineda ..... He look good early in the season, but now he really seems to be struggling .... It doesn't seem like he's going to last the whole season .... Almost painful to watch at times, like he needs a chiropractic mound visit or something .... I don't know, maybe give him an opener for a few starts.  I hope he can turn it around, but he definitely seem like SP5 in this rotation ATM.

 

Glad the Twins have that option on Perez .... Not sure if Gibson or Odorizzi will be worth QOs, but in today's FA world I would guess they would both sign them ... Otherwise, maybe the Twins pick up a competitive balance pick.

[Aerodeliria]

I'm not so concerned with the rotation at the moment. I am hoping for the continual progression of Thorpe in the minors. His last three outings have been impressive (although he got tagged for the three runners that were left on base as Moya coughed up a grand slam).

 

For being touted as a strikeout pitcher, Pineda hasn't been missing many bats lately. Maybe he needs another pitch in his arsenal?

[Blake]

If both Odorizzi and Perez are coming into their own, then this will be a fun season.

 

 

[PDX Twin]

 

 SP5 in this rotation ATM.

 

 

You can get SP5 at an ATM? I can only get $20s.

[Thrylos]

Here is how the Twins' rotation ranks in the majors:

 

12th in ERA
13th in FIP
21st in K%
15th in K-BB%
7th in WHIP (.280 BABIP)
16th in SIERA

 

Pretty mediocre.  Dead smack in the middle of MLB rotations.

 

The bats and some timely individual starter performances have been driving the Twins' success so far this season.  To be competitive in the post season they will need an Ace who will push Berrios to 2 and Odorizzi/Perez to 3 & 4.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Thrylos

[Taildragger8791]

 

Here is how the Twins' rotation ranks in the majors:

 

12th in ERA
13th in FIP
21st in K%
15th in K-BB%
7th in WHIP (.280 BABIP)
16th in SIERA

 

Pretty mediocre.  Dead smack in the middle of MLB rotations.

 

The bats and some timely individual starter performances have been driving the Twins' success so far this season.  To be competitive in the post season they will need an Ace who will push Berrios to 2 and Odorizzi/Perez to 3 & 4.

 

I'd be curious to see a comparison more along the lines of median performances rather than mean averages. The Twins (going on gut feel here) seem like they've had some lights out performances and some absolute horror show performances, the latter of which have a bigger impact on the mean averages you listed. If those get cleaned up a little it could make a big difference in the rankings.

 

Maybe a plot of Earned Runs by the starter from each game would be a good way to visualize the spread of performances? One could compare the bell curves for each team and see where they tend to live and how boom/bust they are vs. steady down the middle.

Edited May 2, 2019 by Taildragger8791

[Mike Sixel]

I'd be curious to see a comparison more along the lines of median performances rather than mean averages. The Twins (going on gut feel here) seem like they've had some lights out performances and some absolute horror show performances, the latter of which have a bigger impact on the mean averages you listed. If those get cleaned up a little it could make a big difference in the rankings.

 

Maybe a plot of Earned Runs by the starter from each game would be a good way to visualize the spread of performances? One could compare the bell curves for each team and see where they tend to live and how boom/bust they are vs. steady down the middle.

Wouldn't most teams have awful performances by now?

[Taildragger8791]

 

Wouldn't most teams have awful performances by now?

 

Sure. I'm just curious how the Twins' spread of great, good, bad, and awful starts compares relative to the league. I realize these are arbitrarily-defined categories, but hopefully it would indicate the upside-ability of the rotation, as well as the likelihood of each performance you could expect. I'm just spit-balling ideas on how to see into the numbers a little deeper than a mean average.

[minman1982]

 

Here is how the Twins' rotation ranks in the majors:

 

12th in ERA
13th in FIP
21st in K%
15th in K-BB%
7th in WHIP (.280 BABIP)
16th in SIERA

 

Pretty mediocre.  Dead smack in the middle of MLB rotations.

 

The bats and some timely individual starter performances have been driving the Twins' success so far this season.  To be competitive in the post season they will need an Ace who will push Berrios to 2 and Odorizzi/Perez to 3 & 4.

 

I agree that the starting rotation has overall been fairly average over the course of the season up to this point.  However, average is better than what we have seen the last few seasons from the Twins starters.  Average might actually be better than what any of us could have expected from this group.  I would be looking to see if we can add an arm later in the season. 

 

I actually think it is the bullpen that has been better than advertised.  The Twins come into the season with no real closer and a ton of question marks.  So far, it has been nice to see the bullpen keep the club in games late and hold opposing offenses down.  If we can steal a few more 1-0, 2-1, or 3-2 games from good teams like the Astros, we will be in good shape for the season.

 

My only concern is can the offense keep chugging along.  Fifty homeruns in the month of April is a ridiculous number and probably not a sustainable pace.  Some of the offensive numbers look a little gaudy because we have had the opportunity to feast on the Orioles early in the season and it is clear that Baltimore just plain stinks.   If we have an average starting rotation, a slightly above average bullpen, and our current offense, we should be in decent shape.

[howieramone2]

 

Here is how the Twins' rotation ranks in the majors:

 

12th in ERA
13th in FIP
21st in K%
15th in K-BB%
7th in WHIP (.280 BABIP)
16th in SIERA

 

Pretty mediocre.  Dead smack in the middle of MLB rotations.

 

The bats and some timely individual starter performances have been driving the Twins' success so far this season.  To be competitive in the post season they will need an Ace who will push Berrios to 2 and Odorizzi/Perez to 3 & 4.

Try and find an ace without giving up Lewis and Kirilloff.   Like Nick Nelson said the other day, there are 30 #1's in baseball, but only 10-12 aces.

Edited May 2, 2019 by howieramone2

[MMMordabito]

 

Some of the offensive numbers look a little gaudy because we have had the opportunity to feast on the Orioles early in the season and it is clear that Baltimore just plain stinks.   If we have an average starting rotation, a slightly above average bullpen, and our current offense, we should be in decent shape.

 

Guess who else just plain stinks:  The Angels sans Trout.  We get them six times in May.  I expect the offensive fireworks to continue.

[Dave The Dastardly]

 

Here is how the Twins' rotation ranks in the majors:

 

12th in ERA
13th in FIP
21st in K%
15th in K-BB%
7th in WHIP (.280 BABIP)
16th in SIERA

 

Pretty mediocre.  Dead smack in the middle of MLB rotations.

 

The bats and some timely individual starter performances have been driving the Twins' success so far this season.  To be competitive in the post season they will need an Ace who will push Berrios to 2 and Odorizzi/Perez to 3 & 4.

Confucius say, Twins fan dying of thirst will gladly accept half a glass of beer.

[yarnivek1972]

I agree that the starting rotation has overall been fairly average over the course of the season up to this point. However, average is better than what we have seen the last few seasons from the Twins starters. Average might actually be better than what any of us could have expected from this group. I would be looking to see if we can add an arm later in the season.

 

I actually think it is the bullpen that has been better than advertised. The Twins come into the season with no real closer and a ton of question marks. So far, it has been nice to see the bullpen keep the club in games late and hold opposing offenses down. If we can steal a few more 1-0, 2-1, or 3-2 games from good teams like the Astros, we will be in good shape for the season.

 

My only concern is can the offense keep chugging along. Fifty homeruns in the month of April is a ridiculous number and probably not a sustainable pace. Some of the offensive numbers look a little gaudy because we have had the opportunity to feast on the Orioles early in the season and it is clear that Baltimore just plain stinks. If we have an average starting rotation, a slightly above average bullpen, and our current offense, we should be in decent shape.

So far, the bullpen has allowed 19 inherited runners to score. 3 of the 4 AL teams that have allowed more are at the bottom of their respective divisions.

 

The Twins have 3 reliable arms: Parker, Rogers and Hildenberger. That’s 3 too few for a contender over the course of the season. Mejia has been awful. Harper has allowed almost everyone he inherits to score, usually turning close games into blowouts. May has been up and down. Then there has been the AAA shuttle, which so far has not helped.

[jimbo92107]

At the start of the season I figured Berrios and Gibson would be the two best pitchers in the ro, and so far that's true, as Gibson is rounding into form. After that, Odo was supposed to be my #3 horse, soaking up average innings. He's been better than that lately, especially against the Astros lumber company. I also figured that Pineda would be an average pitcher this season, if his arm issues were solved. Not so good there - on the mound Pineda looks fidgety, and he's shrugging his shoulder like he's working through scar tissue or something. At least he's not grabbing for his elbow.

 

The big surprise has been Martin Perez. Wow, a talented but unsuccessful pitcher suddenly finds a few extra mph on his heater, then finds a cutter that is slicing through the league. WT wonderful F? We sometimes hear about a guy that finds a new pitch, but Perez (via Wes Johnson?) has discovered two. His heater not only is going 95 to 96, but he's spotting it really well, both his 2- and 4-seamer. But where did this ace cutter come from? Is it just an amped-up version of his usual cutter, or is it a new pitch? Either way, I'll take it, and it looks like Perez is loving it out there. 

[puckstopper1]

 

Here is how the Twins' rotation ranks in the majors:

 

12th in ERA
13th in FIP
21st in K%
15th in K-BB%
7th in WHIP (.280 BABIP)
16th in SIERA

 

Pretty mediocre.  Dead smack in the middle of MLB rotations.

 

The bats and some timely individual starter performances have been driving the Twins' success so far this season.  To be competitive in the post season they will need an Ace who will push Berrios to 2 and Odorizzi/Perez to 3 & 4.

 

We also need to compare this to the rest of the Central division.  With Kluber's injury, the door is wide-open, IMO, this season.  Not to say that an upgrade won't be welcome, but if the starting staff keeps doing what they have been doing, then it should be a fun summer!

[SirLoin]

 

Now the negative, Pineda ..... He look good early in the season, but now he really seems to be struggling .... It doesn't seem like he's going to last the whole season .... Almost painful to watch at times, like he needs a chiropractic mound visit or something .... I don't know, maybe give him an opener for a few starts.  I hope he can turn it around, but he definitely seem like SP5 in this rotation ATM.

 

 

I'm beginning to wonder what Pineda might look like out of the bullpen, where he could just "let it fly" for an inning.  Obviously not in a high leverage situation at this point, but maybe you flip-flop Mejia and Pineda and see what happens in that 5th spot.  Heck, in that 5th spot, run one of them out there for 3-4 innings, then send the other out there for the next 2 or 3 innings and see what happens.

[Thrylos]

 

Try and find an ace without giving up Lewis and Kirilloff.   Like Nick Nelson said the other day, there are 30 #1's in baseball, but only 10-12 aces.

 

I'd argue that now that the Twins have extended Kepler, they will need an Ace more than Kirilloff who between Kepler and Larnach, is pretty much redundant.  I think that a package based on Kirilloff plus a couple more prospects will get them an Ace without needing to add Lewis.  

 

Gerrit Cole was traded for Michael Feliz (24 yo reliever with 5.13 ERA), Jason Martin (22 yo OF not on their top 30 prospects), Colin Moran (23 yo 3B who was not ranked as a prospect after 2014), and Joe Musgrove (25 year old starter/reliever with a 4.57 ERA who was for one season #83 total prospect at BA)

 

What's the Twins' equivalent?   Jake Reed, Jordan Gore, LaMonte Wade, Stephen Gonsalves?  Not even Kirilloff 

[wsnydes]

I'm not ready to declare anything, especially that the rotation is better than advertised. Let's see what happens as they play more quality opponents. One month doesn't establish much, especially when it's April.

[jmlease1]

 

Here is how the Twins' rotation ranks in the majors:

 

12th in ERA
13th in FIP
21st in K%
15th in K-BB%
7th in WHIP (.280 BABIP)
16th in SIERA

 

Pretty mediocre.  Dead smack in the middle of MLB rotations.

 

The bats and some timely individual starter performances have been driving the Twins' success so far this season.  To be competitive in the post season they will need an Ace who will push Berrios to 2 and Odorizzi/Perez to 3 & 4.

 

I think we knew that offense was going to have to carry us this season, and it mostly has. But middle of the pack is better than bottom third and is certainly sustainable as a winning formula with a top 5 offense. And in the playoffs, anything can happen in a short series.

 

Runs/game: 7th

SLG%: 1st

OPS+: 3rd

HRs: 3rd

OB%: 17th (but still above lg avg)

 

Kinda feels like a top 5 offense, right?

 

We're getting enough out of the starters to be competitive. berrios is legit good by any team's standard, gibson is rounding into shape now that he's had time to build back stamina, Perez & odorizzi have been more than solid enough for the middle of the rotation. (Perez has been good to great in 3 out of his 4 starts, and ok in the other one. His bad stats piled up when he was in the bullpen.) Pineda has been the bad spot. I'd agree, a bit better than expected.

[Blake]

At this point, I think the season has gone far better than any fan expected. I will enjoy the ride while it lasts and if it lasts all the way into the playoffs, so much the better.

[yarnivek1972]

I think we knew that offense was going to have to carry us this season, and it mostly has. But middle of the pack is better than bottom third and is certainly sustainable as a winning formula with a top 5 offense. And in the playoffs, anything can happen in a short series.

 

Runs/game: 7th

SLG%: 1st

OPS+: 3rd

HRs: 3rd

OB%: 17th (but still above lg avg)

 

Kinda feels like a top 5 offense, right?

 

We're getting enough out of the starters to be competitive. berrios is legit good by any team's standard, gibson is rounding into shape now that he's had time to build back stamina, Perez & odorizzi have been more than solid enough for the middle of the rotation. (Perez has been good to great in 3 out of his 4 starts, and ok in the other one. His bad stats piled up when he was in the bullpen.) Pineda has been the bad spot. I'd agree, a bit better than expected.

I’m sure that it is technically true that the Twins as a team have a higher obp than the league average hitter. But using the logic test, being ranked 17th is below average. The reason is obvious: pitchers. Pitchers drag down the obp for all NL teams and thus the MLB average as well. But since the AL only has pitchers bat in about a dozen games as opposed to 150 for NL teams it’s not an accurate comparison.

 

While it is true that 5 of the top 7 obp teams in MLB are NL teams, it is also true that 6 of the bottom 7 are NL, including the 4 worst. Indicating a greater level of disparity in the NL I suppose.

[chpettit19]

 

I’m sure that it is technically true that the Twins as a team have a higher obp than the league average hitter. But using the logic test, being ranked 17th is below average. The reason is obvious: pitchers. Pitchers drag down the obp for all NL teams and thus the MLB average as well. But since the AL only has pitchers bat in about a dozen games as opposed to 150 for NL teams it’s not an accurate comparison.

While it is true that 5 of the top 7 obp teams in MLB are NL teams, it is also true that 6 of the bottom 7 are NL, including the 4 worst. Indicating a greater level of disparity in the NL I suppose.

Well they're 19 points away from the league leading Braves, but if they went down 19 points they'd only drop 5 spots. 

 

I think team ranking stats are almost completely useless. If you're technically 13th as a team, but you're only 10 points off the leader do you still feel like you're struggling a great deal? Take team FIP for example, the Twins have a 4.10 FIP and are 13th in the league. 14th place is a tie between the Cubs and Phils at 4.27. That .17 difference between us and the next team would be good enough to move us into a tie for 8th and .01 away from 7th. Team rankings shouldn't be used solely on their own.

 

As for being a top 5 offense, I'd say we're the 7th best offense right now. The point of offense is to score runs so whoever scores the most runs is the best and so on. There's a number of different strategies to scoring runs, but as long as you're scoring you're successful and I don't care what your OBP, OPS, BA, HRs or any other stats are. Just score runs.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Well they're 19 points away from the league leading Braves, but if they went down 19 points they'd only drop 5 spots. 

 

I think team ranking stats are almost completely useless. If you're technically 13th as a team, but you're only 10 points off the leader do you still feel like you're struggling a great deal? Take team FIP for example, the Twins have a 4.10 FIP and are 13th in the league. 14th place is a tie between the Cubs and Phils at 4.27. That .17 difference between us and the next team would be good enough to move us into a tie for 8th and .01 away from 7th. Team rankings shouldn't be used solely on their own.

 

No one argued they should be the only thing used. How would you suggest we understand if the team is good at pitching, if not by looking at where they are compared to other teams?

[chpettit19]

 

No one argued they should be the only thing used. How would you suggest we understand if the team is good at pitching, if not by looking at where they are compared to other teams?

The post you "liked" and I responded to literally said the Twins are bellow average in OBP because they are ranked 17th despite the fact that their actual OBP is above league average. So I said to look at the range of what the actual numbers are instead of the straight ranking. So, as I explained in my original comment, I wouldn't look at strictly where they are compared to other teams in the ranking sense since that ranking really doesn't tell any sort of story at all. Instead I would look at what the actual numbers are compared to the other teams.

[Doomtints]

It wouldn't surprise me to learn the Twins have a mediocre OBP but are still winning games. They are hitting a lot of dingers.

[rdehring]

 

I'd argue that now that the Twins have extended Kepler, they will need an Ace more than Kirilloff who between Kepler and Larnach, is pretty much redundant.  I think that a package based on Kirilloff plus a couple more prospects will get them an Ace without needing to add Lewis.  

 

Gerrit Cole was traded for Michael Feliz (24 yo reliever with 5.13 ERA), Jason Martin (22 yo OF not on their top 30 prospects), Colin Moran (23 yo 3B who was not ranked as a prospect after 2014), and Joe Musgrove (25 year old starter/reliever with a 4.57 ERA who was for one season #83 total prospect at BA)

 

What's the Twins' equivalent?   Jake Reed, Jordan Gore, LaMonte Wade, Stephen Gonsalves?  Not even Kirilloff 

Count me among those that would not trade KIrilloff.  Would trade Lewis, Larnach and any of the other position players before him. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Count me among those that would not trade KIrilloff.  Would trade Lewis, Larnach and any of the other position players before him. 

 

Interesting. Lewis is probably a SS, and Kiriloff a 1B/DH/sometime OF.....I'd think most would want the SS.

[Vanimal46]

I'd argue that now that the Twins have extended Kepler, they will need an Ace more than Kirilloff who between Kepler and Larnach, is pretty much redundant. I think that a package based on Kirilloff plus a couple more prospects will get them an Ace without needing to add Lewis.

 

Gerrit Cole was traded for Michael Feliz (24 yo reliever with 5.13 ERA), Jason Martin (22 yo OF not on their top 30 prospects), Colin Moran (23 yo 3B who was not ranked as a prospect after 2014), and Joe Musgrove (25 year old starter/reliever with a 4.57 ERA who was for one season #83 total prospect at BA)

 

What's the Twins' equivalent? Jake Reed, Jordan Gore, LaMonte Wade, Stephen Gonsalves? Not even Kirilloff

This is why I trade prospects for good MLB players 10 times out of 10. I'm certain people here thought the Astros overpaid for Cole... They got the last laugh.

 

If you want to have more fun with past trades, look at how awful the Christian Yelich trade is for Miami now... And people also thought at the time the Marlins got a haul.

 

Trade your prospects when you can. Laugh all the way to the bank when the established MLB player you receive is way better than any top 100 prospect you sent to the other team.

[howieramone2]

 

I'd argue that now that the Twins have extended Kepler, they will need an Ace more than Kirilloff who between Kepler and Larnach, is pretty much redundant.  I think that a package based on Kirilloff plus a couple more prospects will get them an Ace without needing to add Lewis.  

 

Gerrit Cole was traded for Michael Feliz (24 yo reliever with 5.13 ERA), Jason Martin (22 yo OF not on their top 30 prospects), Colin Moran (23 yo 3B who was not ranked as a prospect after 2014), and Joe Musgrove (25 year old starter/reliever with a 4.57 ERA who was for one season #83 total prospect at BA)

 

What's the Twins' equivalent?   Jake Reed, Jordan Gore, LaMonte Wade, Stephen Gonsalves?  Not even Kirilloff 

One example tells you nothing. I'm glad you are no longer espousing we need 2 starters better than Berrios, as if they grew on trees.