Article: HOU 7, MIN 1: Foregone Conclusion

[USAFChief]

I'm also sure glad we hoodwinked Houston into taking Pressly off our hands, strengthening our AA rotation

[USAFChief]

What this series demonstrated to me was the difference between talking a good game, and going out and getting the players to PLAY a good game.

 

The Twins lineup can compete. They do not have the pitching staff to compete with the big boys.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Not sure what that would have done... It probably would have pushed Berrios back another day, to Sunday ,to pitch against the O's and then he wouldn't have pitched against the Astros this week or next week.

Berrios could have started Saturday, same as he actually did.

[pbrezeasap]

 

I have no problem with Buxton and Verlander getting scheduled days off against the slider of Verlander. None whatsoever. Adrianza got a hit off Verlander. And the bench guys need to play. 

 

If this team wants to be a playoff team then this is a problem. Buxton and Schoop need all the experience they can get against the leagues best if they want to be successful against them in the future.

[Otto von Ballpark]

The more I think about the Saturday start idea, the more I like it.

 

You could have started Berrios and a AAA guy last Saturday, and pushed everyone else back a day, meaning Gibson would get a start against Houston instead of Stewart.

 

Or, perhaps better, start a AAA guy Saturday and use Perez out of the pen. Gives you more flexibility than just adding Romero to the pen for the day (Perez could come in earlier and/or pitch longer if necessary), and it lets you keep everyone else on the same schedule, just with Perez starting last night in Houston instead of Stewart.

[wsnydes]

 

The Twins lineup can compete. They do not have the pitching staff to compete with the big boys.

This series does a good job of showing how far from being a true contender this team is. They do appear to have the offense to play with the big boys, but like you said, the pitching is lacking. It's a pretty tough road to travel when you're facing an ace three times in a five game playoff series. That also puts enormous pressure on Berrios to not only win his starts but to go deep into them as well. 

 

Winning a division, even a really bad one, is nice. I guess I'd like to set my sights a bit higher than that an actually become a legitimate contender. The offense is there, but the pitching...woof...

[howieramone2]

 

Someone being encouraged by 5 runs over 6 innings tells us all we need to know about Kohl Stewart.

After Gibson's first 7 starts did we know everything about him? How about May after his first 8, or Berrios after his first 14?   80%+ of all new starting pitchers go though the same process. They need to take their lumps to develop.

Edited April 25, 2019 by howieramone2

[MMMordabito]

They could have started a AAA pitcher against Baltimore on Saturday instead.

I thought about this, but with Kepler and Parker both being sick, I wonder if options were limited.

[howieramone2]

 

It was a throw away game...they quit before they started. If this is the new era I am not a fan. To say there was nothing they could do is a cop out. Whatever happened to foresight. They announced the roster moves AFTER last nights game. Does that mean they could have done that last Friday and started a AAA guy against Baltimore in one of the double header games. For a management team that never wastes an opportunity to tell us how prepared they are then WHAT HAPPENED? Weak, bush league, and Lame. Why don't we just crown the Astros now? Apparently our leaders dont think we can compete with them.

You can judge an era based on 1 game?

[jmlease1]

It's nice that the Twins are relevant enough for people to wildly overreact to the results of a game and/or every managerial decision again.

 

Stewart was the logical guy to start, and had some success last year. And despite his poor command, he showed some flashes of how he could do that in MLB even last night, inducing some weak contact with that sinker. But he has to hit his spots to be successful and he couldn't do it last night and has struggled with it so far this season. He needs more work, but there's some interesting talent there.

 

It's not like this was an "abandon all hope" lineup; Astudillo is someone people clamoring to play more, so he got a start. And I'm totally on board with giving Buxton a day off against Verlander's slider. Heck, half of our hits came from the bottom three guys: the top 6 are the clear starters right now, so why not complain that Nelson Cruz left his boomstick at the hotel?

 

Gonzalez isn't hitting right now, but Seth is right: he's been making better contact lately and doesn't look like he's flailing at the plate. Moreover, he's been playing pretty excellent defense overall. (yes, he had the throwing error, but he's also the only guy on the team that would have been in a position to make that throw in the first place)

 

The reason it felt like a give up game is the offense produced 4 freakin' hits. Against Verlander, being down 4 runs can seem like 40. Let's come home and get well against Baltimore.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

After Gibson's first 7 starts did we know everything about him? How about May after his first 8, or Berrios after his first 14?   80%+ of all new starting pitchers go though the same process. They need to take their lumps to develop.

 

Berrios career minor league numbers--591.2 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.6 k/9, 2.5 bb/9

 

Gibson career minor league numbers--410 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.1 k/9, 2.5 bb/9

 

Stewart career minor league numbers--582.2 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 6.5 k/9, 3.4 bb/9

 

That's why Stewart gets a shorter leash than Berrios or Gibson--he hasn't earned a longer one with his performance in the minors.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I thought about this, but with Kepler and Parker both being sick, I wonder if options were limited.

 

In a doubleheader, you can call up a 26th man.  They could have brought up Stewart, Littell, or Thorpe to pitch the Saturday night cap as the 26th man, and it would have been less stress on the team than the two total innings they got from Romero.  It would have then allowed Perez to start on Sunday, Gibson on Monday, Odorizzi on Tuesday, and Pineda last night.

 

Personally, I think MLB should also institute a rule anytime an unscheduled doubleheader causes a team to play 6 games in 5 days; in addition to the 26th man the day of the DH, they should be granted a waiver to bring up a player for the 6th game in that string, so long as they "deactivate" another player so there's no competitive disadvantage to the competing team.  In other words, the Twins could have brought up Stewart to pitch last night, and instead of designating Cave, simply deactivated Pineda for a game.

[howieramone2]

 

Berrios career minor league numbers--591.2 IP, 2.77 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 9.6 k/9, 2.5 bb/9

 

Gibson career minor league numbers--410 IP, 3.36 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 8.1 k/9, 2.5 bb/9

 

Stewart career minor league numbers--582.2 IP, 3.41 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 6.5 k/9, 3.4 bb/9

 

That's why Stewart gets a shorter leash than Berrios or Gibson--he hasn't earned a longer one with his performance in the minors.

Once you make it to The Show, you can throw minor league numbers out the window. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I get that and yet, again, it's 20 games. Sometimes you have to just keep going out there to get out of a slump. He has been making much better contact the last week. I'm sure if he is struggling still in two months he won't play more than 2-3 days sa week. 

 

This also might just be Marwin.  Historically, he's struggled against breaking balls (he grades out worst against the curve, and then sliders).  This year, he's seeing those pitches a combined 37.8% of the time--fastballs are at 36.2%.  Until he shows an ability to handle those pitches, this isn't going to get better.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm sure glad we didn't trade for Verlander 2 years ago, as I wanted the Twins to do. Washed up, as I was told he was.

Then the idiots signed an old pitcher to an extension! What were the Astros thinking?

[Mike Sixel]

What this series demonstrated to me was the difference between talking a good game, and going out and getting the players to PLAY a good game.

 

The Twins lineup can compete. They do not have the pitching staff to compete with the big boys.

And it's not close. Wait until next year, when Pineda and Gibson are gone!

[Mike Sixel]

I don't view this as a give up game at all. This is the pitching depth you all loved before the year started....I read all over that the AAA roster had better backups. This is what those are for.

 

The only thing I would have done differently is swap Astudillo and Gonzalez.

 

Other than that, I think this is pretty much how any team would have run this stretch.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

Once you make it to The Show, you can throw minor league numbers out the window. 

 

Well then I think to fix the team, we should recall Drew Maggi from AAA.  After all, once we do that we can simply ignore his .438 OPS at AAA.  And DJ Baxendale, with his 11.57 ERA and 2.57 WHIP is just what the bullpen needs, since those numbers are obviously irrelevant the moment he puts on a Twins uniform.

[Danchat]

I'm beginning to get a bit concerned about the coaching at AAA. Virtually every pitcher at Rochester has been terrible so far, and every one called up has been a disaster for the Twins. A few pitchers at a level struggling is expected, but when it is the whole staff you have to wonder if there is a problem with the pitching coach.

It’s been like this for years now, any pitcher we call up who wasn’t Rogers or Hildenberger is simply awful. Even though most of these guys aren’t Falvine prospects, it still feels like our pitching development is broken. I’m not convinced it’s a talent issue, as we’ve seen other teams poach our pitchers and end up with much better results.

[twins_89]

 

It’s been like this for years now, any pitcher we call up who wasn’t Rogers or Hildenberger is simply awful. Even though most of these guys aren’t Falvine prospects, it still feels like our pitching development is broken. I’m not convinced it’s a talent issue, as we’ve seen other teams poach our pitchers and end up with much better results.

 

While it's true that the Twins pitcher development has had problems for years, the prospects often still did reasonably well at AAA. The thing that worries me about this season is it seems like almost every pitcher on the Rochester roster has an inflated ERA. The only guys on the AAA staff with an ERA under 4 are Morin (0.00) and Duffey (1.50), with only Romero (4.32) and Eades (4.26) staying under 5. Everyone else has an ERA larger than 5 (most significantly higher than 5.00).

[Mike Sixel]

While it's true that the Twins pitcher development has had problems for years, the prospects often still did reasonably well at AAA. The thing that worries me about this season is it seems like almost every pitcher on the Rochester roster has an inflated ERA. The only guys on the AAA staff with an ERA under 4 are Morin (0.00) and Duffey (1.50), with only Romero (4.32) and Eades (4.26) staying under 5. Everyone else has an ERA larger than 5 (most significantly higher than 5.00).

They are using the juiced ball in AAA. Runs are way up across the level. I don't think we know yet what this means.

[jtkoupal]

I did not expect that the Twins were going to win this game. I pretty much knew they would not. However, it didn't seem like they were playing to win. Resting two hot hitters with an off day the next day and a series against the worst team in the league just seems...odd to me. Then again, Rocco knows more about this team and these guys than I do, so I trust his judgement over mine 7/7 days a week.

[howieramone2]

 

It’s been like this for years now, any pitcher we call up who wasn’t Rogers or Hildenberger is simply awful. Even though most of these guys aren’t Falvine prospects, it still feels like our pitching development is broken. I’m not convinced it’s a talent issue, as we’ve seen other teams poach our pitchers and end up with much better results.

We've seen other teams poach our pitchers and watched most of them fall flat on their faces.

[prouster]

I'm sure glad we didn't trade for Verlander 2 years ago, as I wanted the Twins to do. Washed up, as I was told he was.

Maybe you should start a thread to discuss trades from past seasons. It makes the site almost unreadable when people clog every thread with the same discussion.

[Doomtints]

 

I'm sure glad we didn't trade for Verlander 2 years ago, as I wanted the Twins to do. Washed up, as I was told he was.

 

Verlander dislikes the Twins. This means,

 

1) He wouldn't come here willingly

2) If forced to come here he would lay an egg to get the heck out

 

And yeah, there is no way the Twins pay his contract amount anyway.

Edited April 25, 2019 by Doomtints

[Dantes929]

 

I don't view this as a give up game at all. This is the pitching depth you all loved before the year started....I read all over that the AAA roster had better backups. This is what those are for.

The only thing I would have done differently is swap Astudillo and Gonzalez.

Other than that, I think this is pretty much how any team would have run this stretch.

Not that I am down on Stewart but I would have liked to see Thorpe or Gruterol pitch this one.   In general, I like to see guys that are doing well currently in the minors get the call up but I agree any team in this situation would have done the same thing.   I don't like to see any conclusions other than a great pitcher on a really good team beat our 6-10 best starter with not quite the A lineup.   I am guessing most teams, even the big boys have those games where they say "Our team is a little beat up and we are facing a really good pitcher.   Instead of shifting things in a game we have a good chance of losing anyway, lets not compound the situation, hope for the best but situate ourselves better going forward"

[Mike Sixel]

Not that I am down on Stewart but I would have liked to see Thorpe or Gruterol pitch this one. In general, I like to see guys that are doing well currently in the minors get the call up but I agree any team in this situation would have done the same thing. I don't like to see any conclusions other than a great pitcher on a really good team beat our 6-10 best starter with not quite the A lineup. I am guessing most teams, even the big boys have those games where they say "Our team is a little beat up and we are facing a really good pitcher. Instead of shifting things in a game we have a good chance of losing anyway, lets not compound the situation, hope for the best but situate ourselves better going forward"

Right. True game theory at work. I am ambivalent about which one came up for this one game. That will change as the year goes on, and players separate themselves from each other, good or bad.

[Dantes929]

 

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but Stewart's odds of beating Baltimore were higher than beating Houston, and Gibson's odds of beating Houston were higher than Stewart's too.

I like that you brought odds into and the odds you stated are quite accurate but I don't think you went far enough with it.     Gibson's odds of beating Baltimore were probably 70-30.   Stewart's odds were probably 50/50 at best keeping in mind that Baltimore was at home and were 8-12 coming into the series having played mostly the big boys of the East.     Stewart's odds of beating Verlander probably sat at 10-90 and Gibson's odds were probably no better than 20-80.     Most likely result of those two games is 1-1 regardless of who pitches.    Next most likely result is going 0-2.   Least likely (but still a chance) is 2-0.    I have no problem sacrificing part of the least likely odds of going 2-0 to give us better odds of going 1-1.  

[h2oface]

 

They are using the juiced ball in AAA. Runs are way up across the level. I don't think we know yet what this means.

 

Runs aren't up for Rochester (he says without looking it up) are they?... unless they were really bad at the beginning of last year too.

Edited April 25, 2019 by h2oface

[h2oface]

How many times does the player that was traded or "let go" via free agency or released, come back and just destroy his former team? It seems like it happens a lot to the Twins, and it is always a good story so I feel like I read a story like that across MLB somewhat often.

 

Apparently Gonzalez didn't get the memo, missed the stories, and failed to make a new one. Batting 6th, 0-fer 11, 3 Ks, 1 walk. 

Edited April 25, 2019 by h2oface