Article: Twins Daily 2019 Season Preview: The Minefield

[Nick Nelson]

Minefields represent perilous uncertainty. One wrong step, and BOOM.

 

I can think of no better allegory for these 2019 Minnesota Twins. The dynamic applies in both a positive way, with regard to the offense, and a negative one, with reg to the pitching staff.

 

Whether the Twins or their opponents (and the uncontrollable) trigger more explosions will dictate this potential playoff team's fate.AN EXPLOSIVE OFFENSE

 

Opposing pitchers will feel like they're stepping through a minefield as they attempt to navigate Minnesota's relentless lineup. There is legitimate 20-30 home run potential at every position other than catcher, and even there, the Twins are better equipped offensively than most.

 

This unit offers elite potential, and while it's not too hard to envision them falling short amidst a sea of strikeouts and sinking OBPs, the Twins will at the very least be a formidably powerful bunch. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system projects Minnesota to score the sixth-most runs in the American League (739), with nine different players reaching double-digit homers.

 

If things break right in a few places, it's not at all difficult to envision this club setting a modern franchise record for home runs, surpassing the 2017 team's total of 206, and even challenging those historical mid-60s squads led by Harmon Killebrew, Bob Allison and Jimmie Hall (225, in 1963, is the mark to beat).

 

Beyond the massive upside of the offense, what's most tantalizing here is the entertainment value it's poised to deliver. On any particular night at Target Field, attendees could be in for a memorable show. The sheer spectacle of Nelson Cruz uncorking a rocket to the third deck (he consistently ranks among the MLB leaders in exit velocity) or Byron Buxton racing around the bases (he's the single fastest runner in baseball, per Statcast) or Willians Astudillo doing... Willians Astudillo things is worth the price of admission.

 

I think back to those lifeless days last summer when Eddie Rosario and Eduardo Escobar often seemed to be the only pulse in the lineup, and I'm heartened by how far we've come. Granted, injuries are bound to take their tolls, and several hitters – such as Buxton, Jonathan Schoop and Max Kepler – need to prove themselves on varying levels. But there's enough depth here, especially with the late addition of mega-utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, to cover up for quite a few misfires.

 

 

READ MORE: Breaking Down Rocco Baldelli's Lineup Construction

A FOREBODING ROTATION

 

Let's start here: It is not beyond reason that this could be the best, most competitive Twins rotation to come along in quite a while.

 

Jose Berrios and Kyle Gibson were legit upper-echelon pitchers last year. Both have the kinds of bat-missing stuff, plus healthy arms, to warrant confidence. Michael Pineda is a big, gas-throwing force – a former All-Star rookie with a career 3.60 FIP and 1.19 WHIP. Martin Perez has established a firm rep as a stable, perfectly adequate back-end starter – and that outlook now feels almost pessimistic with the way he's thrown this spring. Jake Odorizzi, even if he merely replicates last year's career-worst results, is insanely good for a fifth starter.

 

So, if the Twins are able to prance their way through the minefield with no detonations, they could find themselves looking pristine on the other side. In terms of realistic one-through-five upside, I can't remember a better group.

 

But this landscape, it is riddled with lurking danger.

 

Berrios looks as strong as ever heading into the campaign. But the same can't be said for his counterpart atop the rotation.

 

By his own admission, Gibson hadn't quite gotten back all the weight and strength he wanted by the time he made his final spring start last Friday. He also got absolutely crushed by the Red Sox in said outing. While he's been damn good for the past year-and-a-half, Gibson hardly has the long-term track record to earn unflinching confidence.

 

Even at his best, Pineda has never quite fulfilled his obviously immense potential, and pitchers in their first year off Tommy John have an uninspiring history. Perez, for all the spring buzz, has posted a better-than-average ERA once in the past five seasons, and was a disaster last year. Odorizzi has been trending the wrong direction for a while now, with his ERA+ going from 117 to 108 to 100 to 97.

 

So that's a fair amount of ominous risk even before you account for the inevitability of injuries. Step very carefully.

 

In case of emergency, the reinforcements are ripe with reservations. Stephen Gonsalves and Kohl Stewart both showed glimmers of promise while finishing strong last year, but neither was all that impressive overall. Zack Littell had a roundly rough go in the majors, but he was a 22-year-old second-tier prospect. Lewis Thorpe has yet to get his first shot in the big leagues, but the Twins aren't shy in their ample belief in him, and his minor-league numbers seem to validate it.

 

Some expressed disappointment with Minnesota's offseason approach to the rotation, and I get it. But personally I'm a fan. The only player they added is a 27-year-old with optional control beyond this year, and they've maintained total flexibility going forward, with plenty of capable young arms to sort through in the months ahead.

 

Plus, they've got an innovative new pitching coach on hand whose positive impact is already generating spring buzz.

 

 

READ MORE: Unlocking Heat: Pitching Coach Wes Johnson and Biomechanics

A VOLATILE BULLPEN

 

If you should ever find yourself in an actual minefield, you are advised to get down on your hands and knees, gently probing every inch as you proceed very slowly, and very carefully.

 

Rocco Baldelli might want to master his army crawl for the late innings.

 

The rookie manager's complete lack of experience pulling bullpen strings is compounded by a unit that's direly short on truly safe bets, and even shorter on proven depth. While the Twins can feel good about their bona fide relief ace Taylor Rogers, the lanky lefty is followed by varying degrees of ambiguity.

 

Minnesota's lone offseason addition, Blake Parker, has looked good after drawing minimal interest on the open market. Trevor May has the stuff to dominate at the end of games, but has thrown 68 innings total over the past three seasons. Trevor Hildenberger was Mr. Reliable for his first year's worth of games in a Twins uniform, then a total mess in the 2018 second half. Adalberto Mejia is essentially the sixth starter filling a long-relief role. Ryne Harper is a 30-year-old who's never thrown a pitch in the majors.

 

Opening on the Injured List are Addison Reed, Matt Magill and Gabriel Moya. It says a lot that Reed feels like the least plausible member of that trio to return and make an impact. His unraveling and the (in hindsight) baffling trade of Ryan Pressly last summer have drastically lessened the bullpen's firepower.

 

And in the minors? Fernando Romero is the pivotal figure, of course. The Twins hoped he'd be a weapon out of their bullpen from the get-go, but his spring performance made it apparent he's not ready. Hopefully he'll be able to join up relatively early but it's tough to say how long his acclimation in Rochester might take. Beyond Romero, there are a handful of marginal big-league talents to fall back on, but no savior-type looming.

 

The good news, I suppose, is that it's easier to add in-season help for the bullpen than perhaps any other position. The front office has plenty of financial flexibility and prospect capital to make things happen. At a time where roughly half the league has no real aspiration to contend, the supply/demand ratio should be favorable.

 

But as I look ahead to a season for which I'm mostly giddy with excitement, I can't help but feel apprehension about the spectre of April and May leads evaporating repeatedly, impeding Minnesota's efforts to take advantage of a weakened Cleveland club out of the gates.

 

 

READ MORE: Closing Time: What is the Pecking Order for Saves in the Twins Bullpen?

LOOKING AHEAD

 

It'll be great if the Twins are finally able to leapfrog the Indians in the AL Central and capture their first division title in almost a decade. It's really not all that unlikely an outcome, especially when you factor in Cleveland's early injury woes, and their wavering commitment to firmly retaining their grasp (they were reportedly STILL talking about trading one of their linchpin starters earlier this month).

 

But, realistically, expectations need to be kept in check. This team is led by a 37-year-old manager with zero experience in the role. He is aided by two pitching instructors who've never even been on major-league coaching staffs. Minnesota's outlook is dependent on a variety of breakout and bounceback candidates who mostly lack stable track records. Multiple building-block prospects are still a year or two away.

 

The path ahead is a precarious one. But the Twins will embark upon it with a combination of pure power (both hitting and pitching) and analytical prowess like we've never seen before.

 

One way another, I'm expecting plenty of boom. Hopefully much more of the good kind.

 

 

***

You can learn about the 2019 team's outlook and depth at every position by perusing the position analysis articles below. And, of course, check back in to Twins Daily each day all season for unparalleled coverage of your favorite team. This is gonna be a fun one.

 

Position-by-Position Analysis for the 2019 Twins

 

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Catcher

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: First Base

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Second Base

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Third Base

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Shortstop

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Left Field

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Center Field

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Right Field

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Twins 2019 Position Analysis: Relief Pitcher

 

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[bighat]

Great article, thanks to all at Twins Daily for keeping the blood flowing this offseason.

 

Can't wait to leave our predictions behind and watch the Twins play ball and see how this all shakes out.

[Aerodeliria]

A well-rounded synopsis of the hand we have. The bullpen rundown is especially prescient in light of the fact that Odorizzi is a twice through pitcher during his better outings and that means long relief. We can ill afford having two relievers underperforming or getting dinged up; then the situation will go from suspect to "ring the alarms," but I have hope in the Twins' staff thus far. I think they might be willing to try some things.

 

JERRY: They could at least try it.

GEORGE: They never try anything.

JERRY: What's the harm?

GEORGE: No harm!

 

I like the fact that this group is really open-minded in their approach, at least it appears that way at the outset.

 

It could turn out to be a very, very exciting season. Let's hope we can get a couple of breaks (not legs or arms though) this year and finally, knock Cleveland off the throne in the Central.

[rv78]

This season seems to me to be one that the Twins could be any of 3 things. 1.They take the next step and take the central by storm with over-whelming performances by their entire team. 2.They perform at an average level again and fail to accomplish anything more than the same mediocrity that we have become accustomed to. 3.They fall flat on their face as the new aquisitions don't help lift the team as expected and instead of competing for the division title they try to stay above the other last place club in the division.

 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Thanks TD writers for an interesting "off season". My winter would be dreary, cold, icy and damp without the warm daily sunshine of   Twins Daily. Now let's play ball and kick Cleveland's butt. 

[rdehring]

If we can't be optimistic on opening day, when can we be?

 

Always enjoy reading your posts, Nick, thanks.  Unlike many, I am not worried about the starters.  If/when help is needed, I have a feeling that one of Stewart/Gonsalves/Mejia will be adequate.  Like so many, I believe Thorpe will eventually step up and be the guy to settle in behind Berrios at the front of the rotation.  But when will that happen, certainly not before mid-season at the earliest?

 

It seems every year several contending teams are blessed with some young pitcher stepping into a key bullpen role.  The Twins need that to happen this year with the most likely candidate being Romero.  Lets hope like heck that he settles down real soon and joins the Twins by the time Sano makes his debut.

[jmlease1]

 

Even at his best, Pineda has never quite fulfilled his obviously immense potential, and pitchers in their first year off Tommy John have an uninspiring history. Perez, for all the spring buzz, has posted a better-than-average ERA once in the past five seasons, and was a disaster last year. Odorizzi has been trending the wrong direction for a while now, with his ERA+ going from 117 to 108 to 100 to 97.

 

Is it really fair to say this is Pineda's first year after Tommy John, though? He did pitch (a tiny amount) last year. He's not a guy who just got back on the mound in spring training, I'd argue he's going to be further along than a lot of the guys we normally think of as "coming off TJ". Frankly, I'm more worried about his knee and other injury history than the TJ at this point.

 

Odorizzi may be the best beneficiary of the opener strategy, and as a 4th or 5th guy I think you feel ok about him. He's certainly someone you'd have to feel fairly confident he'll be able to take the ball for 25-30 starts in the season and there's value in that.

 

I also feel better about the options for replacements if/when guys get hurt. Gonsalves, Thorpe, Stewart, Littell are all guys who could break through this season and give you internal options if Gibson needs more time to get back into game shape after the nasty illness or Pineda can't stay healthy, etc. None of them are sure things, but there's better depth options for the starters than we've seen.

[mikelink45]

Very nice.  Enough optimism to make opening day the hopeful event it is supposed to be and enough realism to keep us from our 162 - 0 expectations!  

 

The BP is our weakness, which is true of Cleveland too.  I sincerely hope we pass Cleveland because we are better and not because they are worse. 

[MMMordabito]

A great way to pass Cleveland will be to kick them while they're down this weekend. Be patient with Kluber. Don't want him to go eight innings today. Throw low and inside to Ramirez, if he plays, and keep him off balance with that knee. Santana will make you battle, but don't give in. The rest of their lineup is pretty uninspiring.