Article: Upcoming Rule Changes Greatly Benefit Tyler Austin’s Future

[Riverbrian]

 

More teams will take themselves out of contention in July.  That's not a win for anybody.

 

If the argument is that teams need to be prepared for injures, and data says that older players break down more often.....It will place even more of an emphasis on younger (cheaper) players.  Older players will be even more limited in Free Agency.  Just one more reason to lean toward the drastic rebuild strategy to ensure they have a bounty of young core players before actively attempting to compete.  Doesn't seem like players or fans are benefiting...

 

Teams are already taking themselves out of contention in July so I don't think it can be "more". I'd actually guess "less" because teams will not be able to continue evaluation into August and 2 months to make up ground is simply a longer time frame. 

 

Yes... The argument from me... is that teams need to be prepared for injuries. I say it often and unequivocally and I imagine I will continue saying it over and over again. However... I'm not sure if the data says that older players break down more often. Maybe it does... but I do believe the data says that older players get paid more and often times don't produce more than players making minimum salary. 

 

In other words... Baseball Front Offices are already there. They are already stocking up on young players and not paying marginal free agents. I don't think the August Waiver Deadline is going to change that. 

 

I believe shortening the trade window available will force teams to be more aggressive in the off-season to plug holes... so they have less holes to plug during the season. Or it will have little or no effect at all and we just carry on like normal without the complicated waiver trade process explanations. 

[SomeGuy]

Teams are already taking themselves out of contention in July so I don't think it can be "more". I'd actually guess "less" because teams will not be able to continue evaluation into August and 2 months to make up ground is simply a longer time frame.

 

Yes... The argument from me... is that teams need to be prepared for injuries. I say it often and unequivocally and I imagine I will continue saying it over and over again. However... I'm not sure if the data says that older players break down more often. Maybe it does... but I do believe the data says that older players get paid more and often times don't produce more than players making minimum salary.

 

In other words... Baseball Front Offices are already there. They are already stocking up on young players and not paying marginal free agents. I don't think the August Waiver Deadline is going to change that.

 

I believe shortening the trade window available will force teams to be more aggressive in the off-season to plug holes... so they have less holes to plug during the season. Or it will have little or no effect at all and we just carry on like normal without the complicated waiver trade process explanations.

I believe more teams will sell in July, it becomes the only time to decide. If you are 6-10 games back you have to decide to sell or hope everything breaks right. I believe teams will see selling as the better option if they cant fall back on the August trades.

 

Yes teams will try to be prepared for injuries. But if you find yourself in a close race and a key player goes down, that August deadline was nice.

 

I'm not saying that teams should depend on using the august deadline each season. I'm saying it had a purpose, it benefitted teams in need. A lot can happen in the last 60 days, a long time to only have your prospects as your backup.

 

The reason for removing it still is not clear to me. No one benefits from removing it.

 

And there is a correlation between age and number of DL trips. Older players are more likely to get injured.

Edited March 15, 2019 by SomeGuy

[DocBauer]

I still want a pitch clock/better clock, however you want to look at it.

 

I'm OK with a hard trade deadline, but I would have gone with a compromise of 1st or 2nd week in August to give more time for all teams involved. But roster depth, 40 man roster and AAA are there for a reason. Still, I could see another week or two.

 

I LOVE the 26 man roster. It's about time!

 

NOT in favor of the 28 man September roster. I understand keeping competitive balance during the stretch. But the expanded roster is not just about rewarding players. It's about an audition for young players for the next season. Cap it at 30 if you need to, but I don't like 28.

 

Initially, I balked at the 3 batter minimum. But I like the substitute pitcher for a PH. It just makes sense. But it's the "end of an inning" caveat that I like. It seems to me that often a RP is brought in for an inning at a time. If he's brought in for more than that, he can be replaced at any time after 3 batters. And THAT RP could be in for as little as 1 batter. In regard to a SP, it's really the same. Many times a SP may be removed after an out or two. In this scenario, again, he only has to finish the inning. I think it's an interesting move that adds to the strategy.

[Riverbrian]

 

I believe more teams will sell in July, it becomes the only time to decide. If you are 6-10 games back you have to decide to sell or hope everything breaks right. I believe teams will see selling as the better option if they cant fall back on the August trades.

Yes teams will try to be prepared for injuries. But if you find yourself in a close race and a key player goes down, that August deadline was nice.

I'm not saying that teams should depend on using the august deadline each season. I'm saying it had a purpose, it benefitted teams in need. A lot can happen in the last 60 days, a long time to only have your prospects as your backup.

The reason for removing it still is not clear to me. No one benefits from removing it.

And there is a correlation between age and number of DL trips. Older players are more likely to get injured.

 

The change was proposed by the MLBPA. It is something they have discussed for awhile. MLB Gave some to get some 

 

The players wanted this because they didn't like the uncertainty of their fates extended into August anymore. The players have been talking about competitive integrity for a while now.

 

Here is how competitive integrity is addressed with this move. 

 

1. August Waiver Deadline is removed

 

2. Teams have to decide by July 31st. 

 

3. July Bottleneck increases competition for the available trade options. It doesn't increase them, it just makes each one more valuable. 

 

4. Increased competition leads to higher prices (IE More or Higher Ranked Prospects). 

 

5. Trade price become painful and the front offices learn that they can't come out of spring training with Ryan LaMarre on the 25 man roster unless they want to trade Royce Lewis for a rental later. 

 

6. Riverbrian thrusts his arms in the air in celebration because teams are building to compete in the off-season, where it should happen because the regular season now starts in March not July or August. 

[bighat]

 

Despite the big advantage to Mr. Austin, I'm stunned that they will actually have the three batter rule. This will have a dramatic effect on bullpens and strategy imho.

 

I'm shocked as well. Manfred is trying to make baseball appealing to people who don't like the sport.

 

Instead he's making major changes that casual fans won't notice - and it's awful.

[mikelink45]

 

I don't like the automated balls and strike calls.  That could has some trickling effects throughout the game.  Pitch framing is obsolete, the catcher can focus almost entirely on the baserunners. etc.  Would an ump still stand there?  Would the catchers start using different crouch positions to quicken their throw to 2nd?

 

I also kind of like the human effect.  Make pitchers adjust if the ump doesn't give a certain part of the plate.  I like having the catcher trying to trick them with pitch framing.  If we get rid of this ump duty, we might as well get rid of them all and have a team of computer guys call every single aspect of play from off field computers.

From my perspective the ump is an outsider, not part of the game.  Their errors and sometimes their arrogance does not add to the game.  And when they decide to squeeze rookies and expand for vets that too does nothing for me.  

[SomeGuy]

 

The change was proposed by the MLBPA. It is something they have discussed for awhile. MLB Gave some to get some 

 

The players wanted this because they didn't like the uncertainty of their fates extended into August anymore. The players have been talking about competitive integrity for a while now.

 

Here is how competitive integrity is addressed with this move. 

 

1. August Waiver Deadline is removed

 

2. Teams have to decide by July 31st. 

 

3. July Bottleneck increases competition for the available trade options. It doesn't increase them, it just makes each one more valuable. 

 

4. Increased competition leads to higher prices (IE More or Higher Ranked Prospects). 

 

5. Trade price become painful and the front offices learn that they can't come out of spring training with Ryan LaMarre on the 25 man roster unless they want to trade Royce Lewis for a rental later. 

 

6. Riverbrian thrusts his arms in the air in celebration because teams are building to compete in the off-season, where it should happen because the regular season now starts in March not July or August. 

Why would players not like the August deadline?  Don't they care about winning?  Verlander leaving Detroit for Houston seems like a best case scenario for him.

 

Trade prices will not increase if more teams are forced into selling earlier.  There will likely be more players available at the July deadline.  Buying teams would have more options. Economics says that more sellers + less buyers = lower prices.

 

This won't have much of an effect on the off season.  Veterans if anything will have a harder time than the last 2 off seasons due to increased fears of injuries.  This did not help on that front.

 

This rule change benefits no one.

Edited March 15, 2019 by SomeGuy

[Tomj14]

As far as the trading deadline, I think it should have been pushed back a week or two.

In my fantasy baseball and football league we have played with moving the trade deadline. And what we have found is if it is too early there are very little trades because nobody want to give up too soon and it if is too late there are a ton of trades and the top teams just stack up.

There is some sweet spot and I think MLB needs to find that.

[Riverbrian]

Why would players not like the August deadline? Don't they care about winning? Verlander leaving Detroit for Houston seems like a best case scenario for him.

 

Trade prices will not increase if more teams are forced into selling earlier. There will likely be more players available at the July deadline. Buying teams would have more options. Economics says that more sellers + less buyers = lower prices.

 

This won't have much of an effect on the off season. Veterans if anything will have a harder time than the last 2 off seasons due to increased fears of injuries. This did not help on that front.

 

This rule change benefits no one.

I don’t have the same assumption as you do when it comes to this making more teams sellers in July. By the same token it could also increase buyers. Less time for the pack to separate. Teams are closer together in July... time creates wider separation of the have and have nots.

 

Elimination of August will ramp up activity in July.... that can’t be argued.

 

Anyway... it’s the MLBPA who wants it. They must have reasons.

[Mike Sixel]

From my perspective the ump is an outsider, not part of the game. Their errors and sometimes their arrogance does not add to the game. And when they decide to squeeze rookies and expand for vets that too does nothing for me.

Preach it!

[Mike Sixel]

Why would players not like the August deadline? Don't they care about winning? Verlander leaving Detroit for Houston seems like a best case scenario for him.

 

Trade prices will not increase if more teams are forced into selling earlier. There will likely be more players available at the July deadline. Buying teams would have more options. Economics says that more sellers + less buyers = lower prices.

 

This won't have much of an effect on the off season. Veterans if anything will have a harder time than the last 2 off seasons due to increased fears of injuries. This did not help on that front.

 

This rule change benefits no one.

They care about knowing where they live. How would you like to be traded to another city? These are people, with families and friends and homes. Not widgets to be moved around as if they had no real value as humans

[SomeGuy]

 

They care about knowing where they live. How would you like to be traded to another city? These are people, with families and friends and homes. Not widgets to be moved around as if they had no real value as humans

So you're flat out against all trades and not just the August deadline?

 

Its the final month of the season.  People don't play baseball for location security.  Travel and possible relocation is part of the job description.

 

The August deadline would buy them one more month in their "desired" location than if the teams just decide to trade them in July instead.

 

I like to imagine that somewhere, deep down, winning is important to professional baseball players. 

Edited March 15, 2019 by SomeGuy

[SomeGuy]

 

 

I don’t have the same assumption as you do when it comes to this making more teams sellers in July. By the same token it could also increase buyers. Less time for the pack to separate. Teams are closer together in July... time creates wider separation of the have and have nots.

Elimination of August will ramp up activity in July.... that can’t be argued.

Anyway... it’s the MLBPA who wants it. They must have reasons.

The 3 options teams face are buy, stand pat, and sell at the deadline.  I am fairly certain that teams in the 5-10 games back range will no longer see stand pat as an option.  Their choice will be do we buy heavily and try to catch the teams that are also buying (This risks losing prospects for what can very easily be a non playoff scenario)  or they could sell while they have the chance and build for the future.

 

We have seen how teams view risk these days.  We have also seen how teams view the importance of building for the future.  I think there will be more sellers.

[jay]

Baseball diehards aren’t going anywhere. Have to look at these changes from the perspective of the casual fan, who I presume actually represent a bigger share of the revenue and are more critical to long-term league success. In that lens (and even in general), I don’t see much negative here.

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

They care about knowing where they live. How would you like to be traded to another city? These are people, with families and friends and homes. Not widgets to be moved around as if they had no real value as humans

Well, they make a great deal of money and this is the business they are in.

That said, I have often wondered why more contracts don't include a payout in the event of a trade. You have to move to another city and that seems like it should entail some compensation.

[Mr. Brooks]

So you're flat out against all trades and not just the August deadline?

 

Its the final month of the season. People don't play baseball for location security. Travel and possible relocation is part of the job description.

 

The August deadline would buy them one more month in their "desired" location than if the teams just decide to trade them in July instead.

 

I like to imagine that somewhere, deep down, winning is important to professional baseball players.

I'm sure winning is important to them, but it's not necessarily the MOST important thing for most of them, I'd guess.

 

It's hard for us to realize, sometimes, because all of us have only ever played baseball for the joy of it. But this is a job to them, period. It's not a hobby or passion project.

It's no different than how most of us here pursue our careers, I'd guess. Being a part of the best "team" probably has some importance to all of us, whatever that means in our respective careers, but for most of us, it's just one factor on a long list of important factors we consider.

Edited March 16, 2019 by Mr. Brooks

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, they make a great deal of money and this is the business they are in.

That said, I have often wondered why more contracts don't include a payout in the event of a trade. You have to move to another city and that seems like it should entail some compensation.

Mike was answering a poster who questioned why the union would push for this. I don't think he's saying it's not fair or shouldn't be allowed.

[Mike Sixel]

Mike was answering a poster who questioned why the union would push for this. I don't think he's saying it's not fair or shouldn't be allowed.

Correct.

[jorgenswest]

The trend of pitcher games with 1 or 2 batters faced continues up since LaRussa's use of the bullpen in the late 80's. In 1988 there were 1006 games where pitchers faced 2 or fewer batters. His impact caused a large jump in the 1990s but the trend continues.

 

1998: 1876

2008: 2057

2018: 2307

 

2015: 2588 (most)

 

 

Note: In 1988 there were fewer teams and thus fewer games. From 1988 to 1998 the number of games  increased by 15% but the number of short relief stints by 86%.

 

I appreciate that MLB and MLBPA are addressing the number of mid inning pitching changes. My preference would have been to address it by no mound visit/no warm up and no restriction on batters faced but this will help.

[jtkoupal]

No Designated Hitter?

[Doomtints]

I'm surprised so many people -- heck nearly everybody -- like these rule changes. They all feel very "un-baseball" to me and minimize the ability for good managers to make smart decisions to give themselves an edge.

 

I also don't see how these changes help someone like Tyler Austin. I think they help the players at the other end of the spectrum-- it will give the old players another roster spot to stick around a little longer.

 

We hear complaints about how we have moved to a "participation medal" culture, and it feels like these rule changes make it easier for crappier teams to compete. Casual fans aren't going to understand what's going on with a lot of this rubbish.

[jorgenswest]

LOOGY usage has been steadily deteriorating over the past few seasons anyway. Only 11% of LHP relief appearances lasted for only one batter last year, which is way down from the peak usage in the 1990s and 2000s when it was over 15%.

 

My guess is that a combination of overall better relievers, higher strikeout rates, and shifting is rendering that role obsolete.

This is a result of a steadily increasing number of pitchers used in each game. Since so many more pitchers were used in 2018 than 20 years ago that 11% is part of a much larger number. The number of 1 and 2 batter outing has increased significantly since the 90s but not quite as fast as the number of pitchers per game (partly due to shorter starts).

 

Last year a record number of pitchers were used in games making the fourth straight year that record was broken.

Edited March 16, 2019 by jorgenswest

[ashbury]

This is a result of a steadily increasing number of pitchers used in each game. Since so many more pitchers were used in 2018 than 20 years ago that 11% is part of a much larger number. The number of 1 and 2 batter outing has increased significantly since the 90s but not quite as fast as the number of pitchers per game (partly due to shorter starts).

 

Last year a record number of pitchers were used in games making the fourth straight year that record was broken.

Are there stats on the number of mid-inning pitching changes? Bringing in a new pitcher to start an inning seems more prevalent than in years past, but that move costs little to nothing in terms of play pace.

[jorgenswest]

 

Are there stats on the number of mid-inning pitching changes? Bringing in a new pitcher to start an inning seems more prevalent than in years past, but that move costs little to nothing in terms of play pace.

 

I am not sure of a way to pull that from BR play index but since the number of pitchers per game has increased significantly the number of all types of appearances has likely increased including those that start an inning.

 

I did check for how many appearances were less than an inning. Virtually all of those would result in a mid-inning change with the exception of walk offs. In 2018 there were 4492 appearances of less than an inning and in 1998 there were 3479 for a little over 29% increase. Last year ranks second in those type of appearances behind 2015 (4613). 1998 fits in line with the trend with more than any year previous and fewer than any year since with the exception of 2000 (3474).

Edited March 16, 2019 by jorgenswest

[108Stitches]

I think we will no longer be able to compare players from here on out to players from 50 years ago. The game is going to be completely different.

[yarnivek1972]

I think we will no longer be able to compare players from here on out to players from 50 years ago. The game is going to be completely different.

Bases are still going to be 90 feet apart. Pitching rubber still 60’6” from home plate. Still 9 vs 9.

[Monkeypaws]

I would rather see the Twins go full "lumber company" and keep Austin instead of Ehire. This guy has big time power. As a bench bat or sub, that appeals to me more than glove. With Marwin in the fold, and perhaps Tortuga, go all in on offense is a good play for this team.