Article: What Might a Jose Berrios Contract Extension Look Like?

[Seth Stohs]

The Twins locked up outfielder Max Kepler and shortstop Jorge Polanco to long-term contract extensions this past week. The logical question is: Will there be other more young core players extended before the season starts? Specifically, will they be able to sign All-Star pitcher Jose Berrios to an extension? If so, what might it look like? For that, we may have been given a couple of clues this week of what range a Berrios contract could approach.That the Twins locked up Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco to long-term extensions doesn’t give us any clue what it might take to lock up other young, core Twins players. We only know that Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have made it clear that there have been other conversations with other players.

 

But also in the last week, two young All-Star pitchers signed long-term extensions which will keep them with their current teams through and potentially beyond their arbitration years.

 

 

AARON NOLA - PHILLIES

 

The Phillies signed 25-year-old RHP Aaron Nola to a four year, $45 million with an option for a fifth season. It buys out three arbitration seasons, a free agent season and possibly a second free agent season.

 

Nola was the seventh overall pick in the 2014 draft. He debuted with the Phillies in 2015 and went 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 13 starts. In 2016, he went 6-9 with 4.78 ERA in 20 starts. However, he took off in 2017. He went 12-11 with a 3.54 ERA. He finished third in National League Cy Young Award voting in 2018 when he went 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP in 212 1/3 innings over 33 starts. Over 380 1/3 innings in the last two seasons he struck out 408 batters (9.7 K/9).

 

 

LUIS SEVERINO - YANKEES

 

The Yankees signed RHP Luis Severino to a four year, $40 million with an option for a fifth season. It buys out his four arbitration seasons and provides an option for his first free agent season.

 

Severino made his MLB debut in 2015 when he went 5-3 with a 2.89 ERA. However, in 2016, he went just 3-8 with a 5.83 ERA over 22 games (11 starts). However, in 2017, he made 31 starts and went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA in 193 1/3 innings. He finished third in the American League Cy Young vote that season. In 2018, he was 19-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 32 starts. Over 384 2/3 innings in the last two seasons, he struck out 450 batters (10.5 K/9).

 

 

JOSE BERRIOS - TWINS

 

The Twins 2018 All-Star will turn 25 in late May. He made his debut in 2016 and in 14 starts, he went 3-7 with an ERA of 8.02. He came back better in 2017. In 26 games (25 starts), he went 14-8 with a 3.89 ERA. In 2018, he made 32 starts and went 12-11 with a 3.84 ERA. Over these past two seasons, he has thrown a combined 341 strikeouts in 338 innings of work (9.1 K/9).

 

 

TIMING IS EVERYTHING

 

As you can see from the above, Berrios is essentially one year behind Severino and Nola in terms of service time. 2019 was the first arbitration season for both Nola and Severino. In Severino’s case, it was his first of four arbitration seasons. Berrios will have three arbitration years, starting in 2020.

 

While Berrios has had two straight seasons with sub-4.00 ERAs and an All-Star Game appearance, Severino and Nola each has had a third-place Cy Young finish, better ERAs (in their past two seasons) and a higher strikeout rate.

 

That said, most believe that there is more potential in Berrios’s arm and we all hope to see that in 2019. If that is the case and he puts up a mid-2s ERA instead of a mid-3s ERA, Berrios will be in the same position as Nola and Severino were this year when they signed their extensions.

 

In other words, if we look at the extensions of Nola and Severino on a year-by-year basis, Berrios should be slightly below those numbers, though he should ask for the same type of numbers.

 

What might a potential Jose Berrios extension look like relative to the Nola and Severino deals? In the below chart, we look at the actual year-by-year breakdown of the Nola and Severino contracts. The third column shows how a similarly-built Berrios contract might look. The final column shows how that contract could be front loaded (similar to Max Kepler’s Unique Contract).

 

NOTE: A1 (1st arbitration season), FA (Free Agent), PA (Pre-Arbitration), O$ (Option Year)

 

So what do you think? A five year, $41 million contract for Jose Berrios? If the option was to be picked up, it would be approximately a six year, $53 million contract. Even if Berrios’s option is picked up, he would be a free agent at the age of 30 and able to get another big deal.

 

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[sweetmusicviola16]

Either deal, roll the dice and do it. Just do it.

 

Stands to reason Berrios would have a lower AAV than both Severino and Nola.

[jorgenswest]

Nice analysis. This should get it done.

[Dman]

I don't know.  If I am the Twins I might want to see that sub 3 ERA before giving out the money Nola and Severino got.  Granted he is a good pitcher as it is and will likely get better,  He keeps himself in great shape.  Still there is risk that this is who he is and while that 40M extension won't hurt the Twins much I just think they would be looking at a slightly lower number given the info they have.

 

That being said I guess whats a few Million to just get the deal done.  We could use his arm for as long as we can keep him.  Hard to say who will be successful in the minor's. Here's hoping they can find some common ground.

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

I don't know.  If I am the Twins I might want to see that sub 3 ERA before giving out the money Nola and Severino got.  Granted he is a good pitcher as it is and will likely get better,  He keeps himself in great shape.  Still there is risk that this is who he is and while that 40M extension won't hurt the Twins much I just think they would be looking at a slightly lower number given the info they have.

 

That being said I guess whats a few Million to just get the deal done.  We could use his arm for as long as we can keep him.  Hard to say who will be successful in the minor's. Here's hoping they can find some common ground.

If Berrios would agree to either deal, I prefer option 2 from the teams standpoint, do it now. This is just under a 9M AAV. If he does put up a season like Nova or Severino that AAV would likely go to 12M AAV.  Even if all he is is the Berrios of 17 and 18 then 9M is still a good deal for the team. There are some pretty bad SP who are making 8-10M.

 

While they are at it get Gibson extended for 3/30. Again, some pretty bad SP who are making 10M per year. I would be OK with signing Odorizzi to a similar 3/30 deal, though I'm less excited about him. That would leave us needing only 2 SP for next season. That's however is doable.

[dbminn]

Berrios is already at the low end of the top-30 SP. Either contract would be a good deal if he never gets any better. SP always have an injury risk. Berrios' high floor and possible upside are worth the risk, especially if the FO can get an option for a second FA year. 

[Zephrin]

 

I don't know.  If I am the Twins I might want to see that sub 3 ERA before giving out the money Nola and Severino got.  

 

I think I agree with this.  Pitching is tricky and it would be good to see a bit more from Berrios before locking him up.  There is also the (perhaps unfair) consideration that he is a bit small and perhaps more likely to wear down or break down than a bigger pitcher.  

[nicksaviking]

I'd like to see Berrios extended now, but seeing as the two contemporaries used as examples were a year ahead of him in service time, it will probably have to wait until next year. No idea if the Twins want to extend him (they better want to) but Berrios' camp will probably see that he should have more value this time next year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't know.  If I am the Twins I might want to see that sub 3 ERA before giving out the money Nola and Severino got.

It's similar dollars, but Seth's proposal has an extra year over the Severino and Nola contracts (by virtue of Berrios being 1 year behind them in service time).

 

Now would seem to be the best time for an extension -- Berrios isn't arbitration eligible yet, so he's still a year away from even a $1 mil salary. The Twins should have some leverage right now. Maybe they can even tack on another team option year? Those have worked very well for Cleveland and Tampa.

[Dman]

 

It's similar dollars, but Seth's proposal has an extra year over the Severino and Nola contracts (by virtue of Berrios being 1 year behind them in service time).

 

Now would seem to be the best time for an extension -- Berrios isn't arbitration eligible yet, so he's still a year away from even a $1 mil salary. The Twins should have some leverage right now. Maybe they can even tack on another team option year? Those have worked very well for Cleveland and Tampa.

Missed the extra year.  That makes more sense. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Missed the extra year. That makes more sense.

Although now that I think about it, that extra year is basically a minimum salary year -- so you are right, the terms are basically the same. If anything, the Twins are taking on more risk by guaranteeing it a year earlier -- so it would be nice to get two option years instead of just one.

[FormerMinnasotan]

I’d do a 6 yr $60 million contact. That will keep him in Minnesota until he turns 30.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Bump!

 

Phil Miller, Star Tribune: "Twins ace Jose Berrios says he turned down contract offer, waiting for bigger payday"

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-ace-jose-berrios-says-he-turned-down-contract-offer-waiting-for-bigger-payday/507121362/

 

(Open Strib links in a new private/incognito tab/window to get around the paywall)

 

Here's MLBTR's summary too:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/jose-berrios-declined-extension-offer-twins.html

 

Of course, no figures were mentioned.

[laloesch]

 

Bump!

 

Phil Miller, Star Tribune: "Twins ace Jose Berrios says he turned down contract offer, waiting for bigger payday"

 

http://www.startribune.com/twins-ace-jose-berrios-says-he-turned-down-contract-offer-waiting-for-bigger-payday/507121362/

 

(Open Strib links in a new private/incognito tab/window to get around the paywall)

 

Here's MLBTR's summary too:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/jose-berrios-declined-extension-offer-twins.html

 

Of course, no figures were mentioned.

 

Well they better start making plans to trade him to the Yankees or Red Sox. In a year or two he won't be affordable to Pohlad and co. 

 

Edited March 14, 2019 by laloesch

[Battle ur tail off]

 

Well they better start making plans to trade him to the Yankees or Red Sox. In a year or two he won't be affordable to Pohlad and co. 

 

Without knowing the numbers, it's hard to figure this. 

 

I'm fine with him not signing this year though. One more prove it year is fine. If he keeps improving, then they will have to pony up. If he doesn't, he will probably have to settle for the kind of money they offered him right now. Either is probably good for the Twins.

[nicksaviking]

 

Well they better start making plans to trade him to the Yankees or Red Sox. In a year or two he won't be affordable to Pohlad and co. 

 

The Twins can afford what the Yankees paid Severino and the Phillies paid Nola.

 

If those are the types of deals Berrios is looking for, it only makes sense that he wouldn't do an extension now as he's a year behind those two in service time. Next year was always more likely unless Berrios was willing to take a lesser deal or the Twins were really willing to overpay.

 

I'd be curious to hear if Rosario also said no or if for some reason he wasn't considered for an extension.