Article: Who's the Fourth Outfielder?

[Mike Sixel]

People think Granite is a good hitter?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15343&position=OF

 

He put up a 67 wrc+ in his 40 games in MN in 2017. 

 

Cave put up a 108 in 108 games.

 

It's not even close on offense. 

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

Is LaMonte Wade not in consideration? I think he’ll be a better player then those 3 long term.

Yes. He's in consideration but I figured he'll end up starting at AAA again since he struggled there a little.

[ashbury]

It's a little frustrating to have all these 4th OF candidates on the 40-man, because they are all essentially 3-tool players but the tools differ from one guy to the next. Individually they each are useful players, and I'm not going to go into detail here about the exact tools as I see them, but ultimately we are clogging our precious roster slots on too many guys with too little upside and too much similarity. If, say, Chase DeJong turns out to be a good pitcher and we lose him because we couldn't decide which 3-tool outfielders to commit to (as spare parts, or as long shots to develop a fourth tool), I'm going to be pretty disappointed. Pick the one you think least of and trade him for the best lottery ticket you can get who is years away from 40-man decisions, or let the market pick the best in terms of what someone is willing to offer (on the theory that the rest are pretty close to as good anyway). But, pick! We really need one fewer.

[TwinsTakes-RD]

 

Do they all have options? A fourth who doesn’t have an option is Tyler Austin.

Reed looks intriguing. With two starting lefties in the OF corners, wouldn’t it make more sense to have the bench guy be right handed?

Pretty sure Cave & Granite have 2 options remaining but Reed may be out of options.

[Twins33]

Cave probably has earned it, but he has options and I'm intrigued by Reed. Would be nice to find another Cave or possibly/hopefully even better (more walks). Being a RH bat helps too.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

You are incorrect.

Cave is not out of options. 2018 was his first option year, so he has two option years remaining.

Granite has 1 option year remaining.

Reed is out of options (as is Austin).

"Hmmm. You present quite the conundrum."    quoting Newman.

[rdehring]

 

You are incorrect.

Cave is not out of options. 2018 was his first option year, so he has two option years remaining.

Granite has 1 option year remaining.

Reed is out of options (as is Austin).

Thanks, wasn't sure where each stood.  That may put Reed in the driver's seat if he has a spring anything like his 2018 season.

[dougd]

Some numbers from BPro's new offensive metric, Deserved Runs Created + (100 is average). fwiw

AAA, 2018:

Reed 139

Cave 108

Wade 102

Granite 79 (but 114 in 2017)

Astudillo 126

Sano 128

 

For 2018 MLB:

Astudillo 127

Escobar 114

Rosario 113

Kepler 111

Austin 100

Mauer 97

Polanco 97

Cave 90

Schoop 82

Sano 77

Buxton 57

[ahart10]

Considering Cave has options he’ll probably start the year in the minors. Austin isn’t really cut out for the job. Granite also has an option. So that leaves Reed. He’s right handed which is nice for balance and is a capable CF, I’ve heard.

Based on last years results I’d have to make Kepler or Buxton the 4th. That’s just me. Or Adam Jones would be a nice pickup, split time with Kepler and show Buxton the ropes.

[Penthang]

My take is that the front office likes a health Granite because of the elite defense and OBP skills, but he has an option remaining. He will not be the opening day 4th outfielder barring an injury. Cave showed us a lot last year and has the inside track for the job. Reed was an interesting guy on wavers who bats from the right side and my feeling is that they brought him in to get an up close look and to provide some competition for Cave. They will probably try to sneak him through waivers to stash him in AAA if Cave performs as expected in spring training, and if not it will go the other way around.

Personally I’d really like to see Granite and Astudillo as bench players for their strong OBP skills that this roster is otherwise lacking, but I don’t believe that will actually happen.

[jay]

Granite and Wade will start in AAA. If Cave doesn’t get rolling in ST, I don’t think they’ll hesitate to go with Austin or Reed out of the gate to balance the roster better and keep a no options guy.

[wabene]

Reed had a 965!! OPS! Geez. Bats right, no options. Gotta think he's got the inside track and then we have what I agree are too many behind him on the forty. Yes we do need to make a decision and pare them down. I also agree the only reason they still have granite on the forty is to trade him if he rebuilds his value.

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I understand the trend of not paying free agents huge dollars for past performance that they almost certainly will not continue to provide into their 30’s, when a team can pay players in their first 6 years almost nothing for similar performance.

 

That said, now that the bottom has fallen out of the free agent market, why not sign an MLB player for our OF? Why must we debate between three flawed, marginal upside players for the 4th spot? We don’t even need the player to be a plus defender, since Rosario and Kepler can play CF too.

 

Here are four players I would rather have on the roster than Granite, Cave, or Reed: Adam Jones, CarGo, Marwin, Denard Span

[bird]

 

I can't figure out how Granite is on the forty man. If it's him, and not Cave or Reed, I will increase my belief this FO is bad at their jobs.

 

 

Derek's 9:30am text: "Good morning Thaddeus. Shall we perhaps grab a late morning latte and render a decision as to the team's excess outfielder?"

 

Thaddeus: "Yes, should you have the requisite schedule flexibility. My weekly mani-pedi concludes at approximately 11:00am. Shall we rendezvous at our usual Starbucks location?"

 

Derek: " That is surely an acceptable plan. Shall I take a moment to poll any of the baseball coaches, kinesiologists, or analytic personnel, or should we proceed without their input?"

 

Thaddeus: "To be frank, perhaps we are better served in this endeavor by avoiding any possible white noise. After all, we have data to peruse on our 7i Apple iphones, do we not? I believe we can accomplish the task in short order and perhaps take an early lunch. After all, we ARE in fact good at our jobs."

Edited February 4, 2019 by birdwatcher

[Dman]

 

Adam Jones will play RF. Kepler in CF. Buxton will be our 4th OF.

 

Kepler has been picked by many stat guys as a breakout candidate this year.  His Defense in Right field was very good last year so the Twins need to know if he is a player on the rise or he is who he is.  I predict a long leash for him this year as he doesn't hurt the team defensively and the only way to improve offensively is to get more at bats at the MLB level.

 

Buxton is possibly the best defensive center fielder in baseball so he doesn't hurt the team there.  Like Kepler he simply needs to improve his offensive production and I predict the Twins will stick with him all year unless he is absolutely lost at the plate.  They have no one on the team that can replace what he brings defensively and if gets going offensively he is a perenial All Star so again I predict a long leash for Buc as the Twins need him to reach his potential for this team to make it to the next level.

 

Rosario almost made the All Star team with his first half last year so I would say he is entrenched in left.  So IMO the 4th outfielders identified in this article will be fourth outfielders barring injury to one of the players listed above. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Reed had a 965!! OPS! Geez.

FWIW, Reed also had a ~.450 BABIP in the minors last year.

[jmlease1]

The twins do have options on this question, in part because with Kepler on the roster you don't need your 4th OF to necessarily be a backup for CF. 

 

I think Cave has the edge because he played respectably in extended duty with the Twins last year and he's a left-handed hitter. Having another lefty bat on the bench isn't a bat idea considering the lineup may well feature 6 righties on a regular basis (Cron, Schoop, Sano, Garver, Buxton, and Cruz) and one switch (Polanco). Sure, castro "hits" left, but...

 

I'd like the twins to have a 4-man bench and not waste a slot on a 13th pitcher who only sees action once a week at best. Right now it looks like Adrianza, Casto/Garver (I don't know who's getting most of the starts at this point) and a 4th OF are going to fill 3 of them, with hopefully a player to be named later. If Tyler Austin is that guy, that's another righty bat and Cave makes the most sense out of the option we're looking a right now.

 

I like Granite, but he needs time to get healthy and show he can hit. He's a nice defender, and has potential to be a speedy high-average guy who could get on base a lot at the top of a lineup. I don't hold his 2017 MLB struggles against him; first time in the majors and all that. But he was hurt a lot last year and really struggled. He need to get it back together before he's likely to be a real contender, and he's going to need to hold off Lamonte Wade now.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I still think the Twins are trading an outfielder. My guess is that was the plan all along, and couldn't swing a trade this offseason.

 

My prediction

Reed starts the season as the 4th outfielder, Granite and Cave will get options exercised

One of Buxton or Kepler (my guess is Buxton) gets traded around the deadline for a pitcher and Reed becomes right fielder, if he shows the promise he did as a youngster, Jordany Valdespin gets the first call to 4th OF.

Edited February 4, 2019 by Sconnie

[nicksaviking]

 

Here are four players I would rather have on the roster than Granite, Cave, or Reed: Adam Jones, CarGo, Marwin, Denard Span

 

I think this team needs better OBP guys so I wouldn't be interested in Jones. Gonzalez looks like a shell of himself even at Coors so I think I'd skip him. Plenty of room for Marwin though, he can play infield too. Span would be interesting. While a guy like Jones is likely looking to start, Span might be more amenable to just taking a job. Being a rotational outfielder might work for him.

[SomeGuy]

 

I still think the Twins are trading an outfielder. My guess is that was the plan all along, and couldn't swing a trade this offseason.

My prediction
Reed starts the season as the 4th outfielder, Granite and Cave will get options exercised
One of Buxton or Kepler (my guess is Buxton) gets traded around the deadline for a pitcher and Reed becomes right fielder, if he shows the promise he did as a youngster, Jordany Valdespin gets the first call to 4th OF.

The chances of either getting traded this season has to be near zero.

 

I doubt we are actively trying to make room for any of the 4th outfield options.  They all seem to be good fits for 4th OF/ emergency options.

[lukeduke1980]

 

I think this team needs better OBP guys so I wouldn't be interested in Jones. Gonzalez looks like a shell of himself even at Coors so I think I'd skip him. Plenty of room for Marwin though, he can play infield too. Span would be interesting. While a guy like Jones is likely looking to start, Span might be more amenable to just taking a job. Being a rotational outfielder might work for him.

I love the Span idea!  With his awesome gray beard.  Wisdom for young Buck.  

[Post-Concussive Blues]

I think this team needs better OBP guys so I wouldn't be interested in Jones. Gonzalez looks like a shell of himself even at Coors so I think I'd skip him. Plenty of room for Marwin though, he can play infield too. Span would be interesting. While a guy like Jones is likely looking to start, Span might be more amenable to just taking a job. Being a rotational outfielder might work for him.

Span is also married to a gal from MN. Just saying...

[Doomtints]

Rosario wasn't good the last half of the year and Kepler is stuck in second gear. We know about Buxton's troubles.

 

I agree that signing a vet to back up these guys is an excellent idea and increases the likelihood that they don't all tank.

[jkcarew]

Can't imagine Granite is seriously in play whatsoever. Lifetime minor league OPS of 708...that lowest (by a good margin) among Reed, Cave, Wade. Oh...and Granite is also the same age...actually months older...than Reed and Cave.

 

Cave has the insider track, Wade's the dark horse. Reed needs to catch fire immediately in spring training to have a chance. Granite has no chance. Austin nor Cron are going to play in the outfield.

[Doomtints]

 

Can't imagine Granite is seriously in play whatsoever. Lifetime minor league OPS of 708...that lowest (by a good margin) among Reed, Cave, Wade. Oh...and Granite is also the same age...actually months older...than Reed and Cave.

 

Cave has the insider track, Wade's the dark horse. Reed needs to catch fire immediately in spring training to have a chance. Granite has no chance. Austin nor Cron are going to play in the outfield.

 

We used to accuse Smith and Gardenhire of favoring certain players. I think this new group does the same thing. There's a bit of the "bring the band back together" thing going on ... but with former Rangers players ... and I really don't understand how they choose which young guys to play.

[USAFChief]

Can't imagine Granite is seriously in play whatsoever. Lifetime minor league OPS of 708...that lowest (by a good margin) among Reed, Cave, Wade. Oh...and Granite is also the same age...actually months older...than Reed and Cave.

 

Cave has the insider track, Wade's the dark horse. Reed needs to catch fire immediately in spring training to have a chance. Granite has no chance. Austin nor Cron are going to play in the outfield.

concur. Granite has never been s real prospect. Zero power. Why are they still wasting a roster spot?

[markos]

 

concur. Granite has never been s real prospect. Zero power. Why are they still wasting a roster spot?

Probably because it isn't uncommon for a power spike to occur in a player's late 20s. And that is basically all Granite needs to be a productive big leaguer. 

[yarnivek1972]

Probably because it isn't uncommon for a power spike to occur in a player's late 20s. And that is basically all Granite needs to be a productive big leaguer.

For Granite, a power spike would actually be showing some power. This is a guy with 2000 career PA as a pro and 11 HR.

[markos]

 

For Granite, a power spike would actually be showing some power. This is a guy with 2000 career PA as a pro and 11 HR.

Sure, that's exactly what I mean. Guys like Denard Span (12 HR in 2400 minor league PAs) and Brett Gardner (9HR in 1700 minor league PAs) are examples of the path I'm thinking. If he can up his ISO to, say, .110 from his current .075, he could be an everyday player. It probably won't happen, but I think it is worth the opportunity cost of having him on the 40-man roster for the next 9-14 months.

[Mike Sixel]

Sure, that's exactly what I mean. Guys like Denard Span (12 HR in 2400 minor league PAs) and Brett Gardner (9HR in 1700 minor league PAs) are examples of the path I'm thinking. If he can up his ISO to, say, .110 from his current .075, he could be an everyday player. It probably won't happen, but I think it is worth the opportunity cost of having him on the 40-man roster for the next 9-14 months.

Despite having Buxton, Rosario, Kepler, Cave, Wade, Reed, Kirilloff, Lanarch, Badoo, and more, and OF always being available in FA....

 

The team needs to be taking chances on pitchers. Imo. They literally have Berrios and, um, no one else proven, under control past this year. And the RP corps isn't in much better shape.