Article: Revisiting Realmuto as a Twins Trade Target

[gunnarthor]

I'd do this only if the Twins were going all-in. Trading for Realmuto by itself seems like a half-step. But if the Twins were going to sign Machado as well, then yes, do it.

[AceWrigley]

I wanted Wilson Ramos back. The Mets signed Willy for 2 years, $19 mil guaranteed with performance bonuses and a fair option on a 3rd year. Stoopid Mets . . . just kidding. I think they're getting a good deal.

[mikelink45]

I have a difficult time evaluating players values - especially in a trade like this because we have been raised by TD to see Kiriloff and a future HOF player and who wants to trade such a great player?  Of course I also have to wonder what Realmuto's value over Garver/Castro really amounts to.  Then I look at Mauer and Posey and think about the catcher position and the wear and tear it takes.  We see a few players seem to defy aging, but for the most part catchers wear out and take different positions.  When does that happen?  This 2015 study gives some insight. 

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/02/what-baseball-player-prime-age/mS39neFWm4hrVukT6lSYuK/story.html

 

This 2017 article adds more perspective although it does not look at the catcher position  https://baseballwithr.wordpress.com/2017/05/08/what-age-do-baseball-players-peak/

 

And finally, here is an aging curve for catchers https://blogs.fangraphs.com/catcher-aging-is-a-curve-not-a-cliff/  We would buy Realmuto as he is rising, but pay for him on the decline. Will Castro get 2 WAR again, will Garver improve on his .9 WAR?

 

That is a lot to think about. 

[gunnarthor]

The other obvious question is, if the Twins are willing to move Kiriloff, is Realmuto the best target for him? Could we get a potential better starter instead to pare with Berrios?

 

But this still requires the FO going all-in and signing Machado.

[jmlease1]

Ugh. I'm really high on Kirilloff, so I would struggle with this one. But the reality is, it will take someone of that caliber to get Realmuto, who is an all-star MLB catcher in his prime years still under team control. It would not be a crazy move at all.

 

Catcher is definitely an area where I understand the team concern. Castro is coming off a significant knee injury, isn't a good offensive player, and his contract is up at the end of the year. Garver made very nice progress, but now we need to worry about concussion issues. Astudillo? Can he stick behind the plate, and is he really this kind of hitter? No one knows. Behind them, there's very little in the minors. Rortvedt (whom I like) hasn't played above A ball, and may never hit enough to really be an asset. There's a lot of questions and not a lot of depth in the pipeline.

 

It'd be a bold move. It's also one that you'd want to have a multi-year extension in place to buy out that last arbitration year and at least 1 FA year if you're going to give up an elite prospect...

[HrbekRules]

If the Twins were close to contending, make the trade.  The Twins are not close right now, save the assets for use later when they are close and need one piece to push the team over the top.  If they go and sign Machado and Keuchel (not happening), then make the trade for Realmuto.

[Nick Nelson]

 

If the Twins were close to contending, make the trade.  The Twins are not close right now, save the assets for use later when they are close and need one piece to push the team over the top.  If they go and sign Machado and Keuchel (not happening), then make the trade for Realmuto.

The O/U for the Twins this year is 84.5 wins. They are absolutely close to contending, and Realmuto would further legitimize that status. If people truly don't think the Twins are even on the verge of contention with almost their entire core in their prime, that's pretty sad.

 

Also, I get the Kirilloff love but... folks, he hasn't played above A-ball. Haven't we learned a thing or two about the fragility of "sure thing" prospects? I'm stunned by the nonchalance around adding a potential 5-WAR player, or the notion that such a move on its own would be pointless. 

[nicksaviking]

 

Weird Twins fans finding more reasons to not get an already established all star player, this time it is because he is a catcher, it is because of the cost, he might get hurt and because they can't give up a player that hasn't made it past high A yet.

 

I don't know about "established". He's only been an All Star once. His career OPS is lower than the largely maligned CJ Cron.

[IndianaTwin]

Talent levels aside, I think a reason people (including me) are reluctant to give big assets for a catcher is because the one we signed on a three-year contract got hurt early in his second year. 

[Vanimal46]

I don't know about "established". He's only been an All Star once. His career OPS is lower than the largely maligned CJ Cron.

Help me understand why you compared these 2 players at all?

[Nick Nelson]

 

I don't know about "established". He's only been an All Star once. His career OPS is lower than the largely maligned CJ Cron.

He's been a top-3 catcher in the major leagues each of the past 3 years. His lowest WAR during that span would've led the Twins in 2018. 

 

It is truly mystifying to me how much Realmuto is being underrated by Twins fans. 

[Mike Sixel]

I would have done it for three years of control. I'm slightly less likely for two....

 

But yes, he's being criminally under rated in this thread.

[cmoss84]

I would not be surprised if the Dodgers offered Ruiz and Verdugo. I would be shocked if Mia did not take that offer. The Twins cannot afford to beat that offer, unless they go "Plan B" and sell Mia on Buxton and give up Graterol as well. Even that seems like a lot. 

Edited January 28, 2019 by cmoss84

[J_Dobs]

I would be very upset if we dealt the farm for a "top catcher". The asking price is ridiculous, I guess a .270 hitting catcher with some added pop does nothing for me, we have that and his name is Garver, I feel he work extremely hard behind the plate last year to become better at defense, why not see what he can do, since it seems like the Twins are punting this year anyway.

 

People have said it already, its a position of luxury to have a good hitting catcher. Marlins will probably might end up getting 2 top 50 guys or 3 top 100. I also feel this would be a different conversion if our current core actually turned into what we all expected.

[SF Twins Fan]

 

I would have done it for three years of control. I'm slightly less likely for two....

But yes, he's being criminally under rated in this thread.

 

I just don't see adding a catcher as what's going to get the Twins over the hump. They desperately need to upgrade their pitching staff with another top of the rotation and shutdown bullpen arm before they trade away top rated prospects. unless of course that top rated prospect is going to get you a top of the rotation arm.

[Shaitan]

I wouldn't part with a top 25 prospect for a starting C for 2 years and I wouldn't part with the team's top SP prospect since it's a position to develop within. I don't see a fit here, unless the Marlins change their demands at the break. And I doubt they'll drop their asking price for another full season.

[ahart10]

He’s the best catcher in the game right now. He’s not Mauer or Posey in their primes, not even Lucroy when he was in Milwaukee. Realmuto looks so good because two way catchers are almost nonexistent in the game right now. A Garver/Castro/Astudillo mix behind the dish has some promise. With the state of the roster I’d not give up a top prospect for an .825 OPS, no matter what position that .825 OPS plays.

[Twins33]

He's worth that in a trade but I don't want to because of the position. To give up talent AND money for a catcher is hard for me. We saw what happened to Mauer from a foul tip. It was depressing to move him to another position and he was never the same offensively.

 

I am/was all for giving out money to a FA C (would have really liked Grandal). That way if he goes down it's only money and not money plus top prospects.

[gunnarthor]

 

He's worth that in a trade but I don't want to because of the position. To give up talent AND money for a catcher is hard for me. We saw what happened to Mauer from a foul tip. It was depressing to move him to another position and he was never the same offensively.

I am/was all for giving out money to a FA C (would have really liked Grandal). That way if he goes down it's only money and not money plus top prospects.

Yeah, it seems strange that we aren't willing to pay for Grandal but we'd then be willing to get rid of Kiriloff for Realmuto. That's a huge loss and I think the FO probably values Kiriloff very highly since he's an obvious replacement for one of our OFers who gets too expensive.

[sweetmusicviola16]

A deal headlined by Kiriloff? Nope, not this year. Not with only 2 seasons of control left. I've long wanted Realmuto, but not for Kiriloff. I'd deal Trevor Larnach as a headliner. Jorge Alcala as a 2nd piece and another low minors player. I hang onto Graterol also, or if he was included no Larnach and the 2nd piece would be less than Alcala.

 

Marlins are overpricing realmuto imo. Similar to what Falvine did on Dozier a couple years back.

[sweetmusicviola16]

But in hindsite I'm with a few others. Simple answer, should have upped the offer to Grandal rather than give up Kiriloff.

[nicksaviking]

 

He's been a top-3 catcher in the major leagues each of the past 3 years. His lowest WAR during that span would've led the Twins in 2018. 

 

It is truly mystifying to me how much Realmuto is being underrated by Twins fans. 

 

Well as I said above, if I'm trading top prospects, I want a great hitter, not a guy who's a good hitter for a catcher. I don't care about the position, find the best offensive talent and make it work. Realmuto is a good, not great offensive force. He's topped an .800 OPS once, his best season last year would have been at the low end of Mauer's and Posey's peak years. He's not elite, he only looks that way because the position is nearly an offensive black hole in today's game. 

 

With how everyone had starry eyes with the Brewers trade for Yelich last year despite them not needing an outfielder, I'd think that would be the model people would be most interested in.

[Tomj14]

 

A big-time catcher is a rich team's luxury. Acquiring one consumes resources that could have been applied to someone who plays 150+ games a year or starts 32.

How about Signing Manny and trading for JT? I agree just trading for JT doesn't really move the needle.

But I will take an established all star player for a A ball player almost ever time.

[Battle ur tail off]

If just Kiriloff does it, that would be a tough decision, but hard to turn down. We are talking about the best catcher in the game that is still young for a kid that is an extremely talented hitter, but is in A ball. He might turn into a stud major leaguer, but he also might not be a star at all, hell, he might not even make it to the major leagues. 

 

That said, if the team is up for trading Kiriloff, yes, I would shop him to the Mets or someone and bring in a #1 starter type first before I give him up for the catcher. That said, Kiriloffs value is huge right now. What happens if he has a bad season this year? Or he gets hurt? He could go from coveted prospect, to a guy no one wants all in one season. 

 

Hard decision...

Edited January 28, 2019 by Battle ur tail off

[GP830]

Hmmm, I'd legitimately make the following offer:

 

Gordon, Rooker, Gonsalves. 

[IaFan1]

I would not trade a young potential star for 2 years of Realmuto. I'm very comfortable with the Platoon of Garver/Castro. 

[Tomj14]

 

Hmmm, I'd legitimately make the following offer:

 

Gordon, Rooker, Gonsalves. 

My question would be, if the somebody offered those three to the Twins which twin would you be willing to give up for them three, Then ask would another team give up an all star for those three?

[Rigby]

Realmuto, Machado,Harper and Andujar are all players that directly fit the mold and definition of what the Twins should be looking to acquire - young with many projectable years. That being said if your farm has the supposed depth of Minnesota's, deals for JT and/or Andujar should be available without the inclusion of Lewis and Kirilloff. Those two are pretty much off limits from my perspective. 

[GP830]

 

My question would be, if the somebody offered those three to the Twins which twin would you be willing to give up for them three, Then ask would another team give up an all star for those three?

 

For those three? It's hard to pinpoint an exact correlation between Realmuto's productivity and any current Twin. I would say Rosario (Similar age, etc), but the fact that Realmuto is a catcher holds more value. 

 

Rosario is usually a borderline all star, no? Likely held back by his position-- I think he's probably the one who draws the most similarities to Realmuto, and yes, I'd accept those three for Rosario. I'd sweeten the deal too if it helps. 

[Tomj14]

 

For those three? It's hard to pinpoint an exact correlation between Realmuto's productivity and any current Twin. I would say Rosario (Similar age, etc), but the fact that Realmuto is a catcher holds more value. 

 

Rosario is usually a borderline all star, no? Likely held back by his position-- I think he's probably the one who draws the most similarities to Realmuto, and yes, I'd accept those three for Rosario. I'd sweeten the deal too if it helps. 

So basically everybody but Berrios for those three? I wouldn't trade any Twins starter for those three.