Article: Giving Out the Grades in Minnesota

[old nurse]

 

 

I guess I don’t call less than three weeks “a lot of time”. Free agency started 3 months ago. In other words, more than 75% of the time between free agency starting and the start of spring training has elapsed.

There is still a kind of decent outfielder, ss, lhp and a reliever out there, As the Realmuto trade is still being finalized, trades are still being made.

[ND-Fan]

Here's a look at where we stand as a team and compared to last year. 

 

First base appears we have improved us on power front from Joe Mauer but in doing so we have lost on base percentage and definitely went backwards on defensive side of first base. The net result I think were slight loss overall at first base because we have weakened whole infield with what joe did defensively. Second base we added SChoop looking at it objectively  we have about traded even with what we had in Brian Dozier that is assuming that Schoop bounces back. SS we have Polanco should be improved when we have him for full year but defensively we will go back some because of first base. Third base with Sano this could be our biggest gain if the reports are right on him being healthy. I could see we have the player of two years ago. The big question can he recover his hitting skills if not were in serious trouble for the season. Catcher we will have Castro back but I think our future is with Garver and Astudillo I have feeling were going to see much more production from Catcher hitting than we have seen last few years. Left field with Rosario should stay same with improving as major league player. Center Field we will be better there defensively with Buxton and I can't help that he's going to hit for at least 230 to 250 mark this year which will be acceptable with all his other skills. Right field Kepler I believe is the player that will have breakout season hitting and defensively will continue to improve. DH is biggest improvement on this team with Cruz we will be getting increase in offense.  Pitching I Think we will have adequate starting pitching to compete especially in AL central. Relief pitching is going to be process of finding right combinations of people I believe the Twins front office has come to decision to explore what we have in the farm system and anything they can pickup before season opens up. Overall I think we could see improvement in the team but my guess is were sitting with 80 to 82 win team. This is not enough to make to playoffs but would be a third best season in over decade. If I was grading this front office they have made necessary moves to keep competent team on the field if the core responds but in doing so they have cost us any chance of making a play off run if this core suddenly gels and probably may have cost us chance at the playoffs. My grading process player additions C, coaching staff I would give them B- with new manager plus but I have severe reservations about pitching coaches hired may just see where we start seeing more career ending injuries for all this allusive need for velocity; and finally overall Front office use of resources I would give a grade of D- because well knowing where we are if the core produces we are on way to having contender but just sit wait to me is great mistake opportunities only come around few times for major league club and when they do have to take the risk and the faith in your players and people you hired to get the job done. This front office lacks the confidence to believe in their players and unwilling to risk their reputations  going forth with a plan to win it all and if don't believe that then you need to blow it up and start over. But this sitting on your hands and hoping things turn around is worst position to be in because your neither progressing or getting worse your just wasting time of players and fans. I believe it comes down to either you believe in what you got or you don't its simple as that when you have made that decision you go out use all your resources to win or if not tearing it down putting plans together to rebuild the club in next couple of years.  This is where we are now not where I would want to be if was trying to sell this club to the public. 

[yarnivek1972]

Here's a look at where we stand as a team and compared to last year.

 

First base appears we have improved us on power front from Joe Mauer but in doing so we have lost on base percentage and definitely went backwards on defensive side of first base. The net result I think were slight loss overall at first base because we have weakened whole infield with what joe did defensively. Second base we added SChoop looking at it objectively we have about traded even with what we had in Brian Dozier that is assuming that Schoop bounces back. SS we have Polanco should be improved when we have him for full year but defensively we will go back some because of first base. Third base with Sano this could be our biggest gain if the reports are right on him being healthy. I could see we have the player of two years ago. The big question can he recover his hitting skills if not were in serious trouble for the season. Catcher we will have Castro back but I think our future is with Garver and Astudillo I have feeling were going to see much more production from Catcher hitting than we have seen last few years. Left field with Rosario should stay same with improving as major league player. Center Field we will be better there defensively with Buxton and I can't help that he's going to hit for at least 230 to 250 mark this year which will be acceptable with all his other skills. Right field Kepler I believe is the player that will have breakout season hitting and defensively will continue to improve. DH is biggest improvement on this team with Cruz we will be getting increase in offense. Pitching I Think we will have adequate starting pitching to compete especially in AL central. Relief pitching is going to be process of finding right combinations of people I believe the Twins front office has come to decision to explore what we have in the farm system and anything they can pickup before season opens up. Overall I think we could see improvement in the team but my guess is were sitting with 80 to 82 win team. This is not enough to make to playoffs but would be a third best season in over decade. If I was grading this front office they have made necessary moves to keep competent team on the field if the core responds but in doing so they have cost us any chance of making a play off run if this core suddenly gels and probably may have cost us chance at the playoffs. My grading process player additions C, coaching staff I would give them B- with new manager plus but I have severe reservations about pitching coaches hired may just see where we start seeing more career ending injuries for all this allusive need for velocity; and finally overall Front office use of resources I would give a grade of D- because well knowing where we are if the core produces we are on way to having contender but just sit wait to me is great mistake opportunities only come around few times for major league club and when they do have to take the risk and the faith in your players and people you hired to get the job done. This front office lacks the confidence to believe in their players and unwilling to risk their reputations going forth with a plan to win it all and if don't believe that then you need to blow it up and start over. But this sitting on your hands and hoping things turn around is worst position to be in because your neither progressing or getting worse your just wasting time of players and fans. I believe it comes down to either you believe in what you got or you don't its simple as that when you have made that decision you go out use all your resources to win or if not tearing it down putting plans together to rebuild the club in next couple of years. This is where we are now not where I would want to be if was trying to sell this club to the public.

The Twins had all of August and September to evaluate minor league relievers. Instead, they chose to give innings to Matt Belisle, Matt Magill, Oliver Drake, et al. If the Twins are planning to use last year’s minor leaguers in key relief roles this year, they should have been at the MLB level last year.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Here's a look at where we stand as a team and compared to last year.

 

First base appears we have improved us on power front from Joe Mauer but in doing so we have lost on base percentage and definitely went backwards on defensive side of first base. The net result I think were slight loss overall at first base because we have weakened whole infield with what joe did defensively. Second base we added SChoop looking at it objectively we have about traded even with what we had in Brian Dozier that is assuming that Schoop bounces back. SS we have Polanco should be improved when we have him for full year but defensively we will go back some because of first base. Third base with Sano this could be our biggest gain if the reports are right on him being healthy. I could see we have the player of two years ago. The big question can he recover his hitting skills if not were in serious trouble for the season. Catcher we will have Castro back but I think our future is with Garver and Astudillo I have feeling were going to see much more production from Catcher hitting than we have seen last few years. Left field with Rosario should stay same with improving as major league player. Center Field we will be better there defensively with Buxton and I can't help that he's going to hit for at least 230 to 250 mark this year which will be acceptable with all his other skills. Right field Kepler I believe is the player that will have breakout season hitting and defensively will continue to improve. DH is biggest improvement on this team with Cruz we will be getting increase in offense. Pitching I Think we will have adequate starting pitching to compete especially in AL central. Relief pitching is going to be process of finding right combinations of people I believe the Twins front office has come to decision to explore what we have in the farm system and anything they can pickup before season opens up. Overall I think we could see improvement in the team but my guess is were sitting with 80 to 82 win team. This is not enough to make to playoffs but would be a third best season in over decade. If I was grading this front office they have made necessary moves to keep competent team on the field if the core responds but in doing so they have cost us any chance of making a play off run if this core suddenly gels and probably may have cost us chance at the playoffs. My grading process player additions C, coaching staff I would give them B- with new manager plus but I have severe reservations about pitching coaches hired may just see where we start seeing more career ending injuries for all this allusive need for velocity; and finally overall Front office use of resources I would give a grade of D- because well knowing where we are if the core produces we are on way to having contender but just sit wait to me is great mistake opportunities only come around few times for major league club and when they do have to take the risk and the faith in your players and people you hired to get the job done. This front office lacks the confidence to believe in their players and unwilling to risk their reputations going forth with a plan to win it all and if don't believe that then you need to blow it up and start over. But this sitting on your hands and hoping things turn around is worst position to be in because your neither progressing or getting worse your just wasting time of players and fans. I believe it comes down to either you believe in what you got or you don't its simple as that when you have made that decision you go out use all your resources to win or if not tearing it down putting plans together to rebuild the club in next couple of years. This is where we are now not where I would want to be if was trying to sell this club to the public.

I agree with you prediction. Considering Detroit, KC (both 100 loss candidates again) and Cleveland went backwards this offseason and ChiSox have so far basically treaded water, 80-82 wins is going backwards for the Twins. Im not ok with 80-82 wins

 

Agreed on the indecisive nature of the FO. It’s maddening

[beckmt]

I also have a hard time with the 80 - 82 win projection.  Bullpen is the key and I like a lot of the rest are concerned here.  Twins I believe blew somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 saves last year.  4 - 5 blown saves in April could set this team a long way back with more a of 'here we go again' type of mentaility. I would take great pains to avoid this line.  I understand the relievers could be good or bad, but this division is up for grabs and Twins should be making more moves.  I like the new coaching staff, but it should be given an incomplete until we see how in works in game situations.  Resource allocation seems to be light, but would wait until middle spring training to see how it works out.

Just no more after spring training is 2 weeks old signing players and bringing them in, they just do not seem to be ready by the season opener.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I also have a hard time with the 80 - 82 win projection. Bullpen is the key and I like a lot of the rest are concerned here. Twins I believe blew somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 saves last year. 4 - 5 blown saves in April could set this team a long way back with more a of 'here we go again' type of mentaility. I would take great pains to avoid this line. I understand the relievers could be good or bad, but this division is up for grabs and Twins should be making more moves. I like the new coaching staff, but it should be given an incomplete until we see how in works in game situations. Resource allocation seems to be light, but would wait until middle spring training to see how it works out.

Just no more after spring training is 2 weeks old signing players and bringing them in, they just do not seem to be ready by the season opener.

agreed, but would propose expanding the scope of weakness. Pitching (not just bullpen) has significant risk of costing games early in the season. I don’t trust Pineda, I am negative on Perez and worry he’ll continue to be a primary pitcher while the coaching staff tries with futility to remake him, and Odorizzi his good for 5 innings. They’re going to blow through a ton of long relief innings and need to score a bunch, before we ever get to the setup man and closer.

 

I’m good with closer and kinda doubt they have one established closer. Between May, and Rogers we’re ok to good there and if Reed bounces back we’re set. It’s the high leverage fireman and setup man I’m concerned with. Theres a few guys that can get through a clean inning, I’m struggling to identify anyone to get you out of a jamb.

 

Looking forward to some touch downs this summer

[old nurse]

 

I also have a hard time with the 80 - 82 win projection.  Bullpen is the key and I like a lot of the rest are concerned here.  Twins I believe blew somewhere in the neighborhood of 25 saves last year.  4 - 5 blown saves in April could set this team a long way back with more a of 'here we go again' type of mentaility. I would take great pains to avoid this line.  I understand the relievers could be good or bad, but this division is up for grabs and Twins should be making more moves.  I like the new coaching staff, but it should be given an incomplete until we see how in works in game situations.  Resource allocation seems to be light, but would wait until middle spring training to see how it works out.

Just no more after spring training is 2 weeks old signing players and bringing them in, they just do not seem to be ready by the season opener.

28 BS  That is concerning. It is hard to say if it is a bad as you think. The Orioles and White Sox each had only 18 BS. They also as a team lost over 100 games. The Brewers 25 and the Dodgers 26 were near what the Twins had. They were in the playoffs.

[beckmt]

 

28 BS  That is concerning. It is hard to say if it is a bad as you think. The Orioles and White Sox each had only 18 BS. They also as a team lost over 100 games. The Brewers 25 and the Dodgers 26 were near what the Twins had. They were in the playoffs.

More worried about the mental state if Twins blow a bunch of saves early.  Stat says you were ahead, something the White Sox and Orioles were not.  Dodgers stat was because of Jansen struggles and missing early, Brewiers also until they got their bullpen sorted out and used more of Hader.  

[old nurse]

 

More worried about the mental state if Twins blow a bunch of saves early.  Stat says you were ahead, something the White Sox and Orioles were not.  Dodgers stat was because of Jansen struggles and missing early, Brewiers also until they got their bullpen sorted out and used more of Hader.  

Jansen had only 4 BS. Contributing cause, but not really considering his peripheral numbers were not horrid. Chargois also had 4 in 39 IP. Each had 1 bad number 1.63 and 1.11 HR/9

Hader had 5 and thus not the reason the Brewers had less blown saves.  Saves, blown saves, wins loses are more a reflection of team. Hader and Jeffers each had 5 blown saves. Each also had sub 3 fip.

The teams with the least blown saves also had the starters with the most losses. It is very hard to lose a lead you do not have.

[jorgenswest]

It doesn’t seem like blown saves is a very useful data point to support an argument. Bad teams don’t have as many opportunities and good teams more often have bigger leads.

 

I don’t think we need anything to support that the Twins bullpen doesn’t look very competitive at this point. It appears the bullpen is going to cost the team wins next year and it certainly did early last year when the Twins were on the losing side of a bunch of close games.

[jmlease1]

 

The Twins had all of August and September to evaluate minor league relievers. Instead, they chose to give innings to Matt Belisle, Matt Magill, Oliver Drake, et al. If the Twins are planning to use last year’s minor leaguers in key relief roles this year, they should have been at the MLB level last year.

 

Would you not think this is a significant reason Paul Molitor is not the manager any longer?

[Jham]

Our cheap controllable talent won't be as cheap and will be losing years of control soon. We don't have much of a choice but to go for things now, imo.

 

Given that this core has made 1 run and we've been building toward this year, that we have the money, that we've added no one for the future, and that we've extended no one either, I don't see how we can give something other than an F at this time. How expensive will an OF of Buck, Rosie, and Kep be in 2 years? Would you rather have that OF or Harper, Garver, and Field then Kiroloff in 2 years? Plus the prospects you get by trading your current OF.

Edited January 28, 2019 by Jham

[yarnivek1972]

Would you not think this is a significant reason Paul Molitor is not the manager any longer?

Falvey and Levine put them on the roster.

[RatherBeGolfing]

84 wins written all over this team