Article: Giving Out the Grades in Minnesota

[Ted Schwerzler]

Sure, it’s only January but that’s become somewhat of a placeholder for fans to convince themselves that things are going to change. The reality is that we’re less than a month away from baseball being played in Fort Myers, and just over two weeks away from pitchers and catchers reporting. A few more moves could trickle in, but it’s time to evaluate the offseason as it is today.There’s no denying that the Minnesota Twins are a better team today than they were when the 2018 Major League Baseball season concluded. There’s also little reason to believe there isn’t opportunity within the AL Central division. Those two reasons alone are why projection systems have Rocco Baldelli’s club trending towards a win total in the mid-80’s, and why there’s some frustration more hasn’t been done.

 

Let’s get into it...

 

New Acquisitions: Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, Blake Parker, Nelson Cruz, Martin Perez

 

Going into the winter, Minnesota’s most desperate needs were a middle infielder and bullpen help. They likely were going to need a bat to replace Joe Mauer at first base as well. Although each player has some level of control or second year possibility, the Twins went about adding talent on one-year commitments. Schoop is a better defender than Minnesota has recently had at 2B, and a rebound year would bring offensive prowess that would rival what the organization has grown used to. Cron should be an offensive step up for the Twins, and Nelson Cruz still is among the most feared hitters in baseball despite approaching 40.

 

Parker isn’t a flashy name by any means, but he’s got previous closing experience and has put together a couple of strong years in recent seasons. Perez is the oddity in this bunch in that he both hasn’t been good before and has shown little indication that he may get there soon. Pegged as a starter, it’ll be interesting to see what his role looks like as the season progresses.

 

Grade: B

 

Coaching Additions: Rocco Baldelli, Wes Johnson, Tony Diaz, Jeremy Hefner, Tommy Watkins

 

For everything that could be viewed as a negative on the player acquisition side, it’s in coaching and development that the Twins sustainability jumps off the page for me. Baldelli, while green, strikes me as a manager that could and will connect in a big way with this group. Johnson brings no big-league experience to speak of but has been revered among the best at the collegiate level. I’m not worried about the track record and think there’s an area of untapped potential that he can mine with the Twins pitchers. It’ll likely be a learning process in connecting with new faces, but the obstacle on the bridge between new ideas and buy-in is one that has held the Twins back in recent memory.

 

Diaz could prove to be an integral part of a connection made between management and Latin players in the Minnesota clubhouse. Watkins played a key role in the development and graduation from prospect of many players currently on the active roster. Putting Hefner on the field after operating in more of a behind the scenes role will be an interesting development as well. Working as an assistant alongside Johnson, their effectiveness will likely directly correlate, in part, to how quickly they are on the same page as well.

 

Grade: A-

 

Resource Allocation: Current projected payroll $99 million

 

Thus far the Twins have spent something like $35 million on new talent. Even with those additions, they’re nearly $30 million below the 2018 Opening Day payroll and well below the league average. A recent report from the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal suggests that Perez could be the last major league acquisition for this roster. Should that turn out to be the case, there’s no way to spin it other than calling it embarrassing.

 

Recently Twins President Dave St. Peter was on the recently rebranded Skor North discussing the state of the 2019 squad. He chided payroll comments saying “(fans) only argument is payroll, we’ve heard it a long time, and it’s something we’ll have to put up with.” He went on to say, “I have confidence that not only are we going in with a better team than we had last year, but it's a team that can ultimately, hopefully hunt down Cleveland in the AL Central in 2019." The problem is that these two statements suggest an inability to grasp what the real issue is.

 

No Twins fan cares whether the payroll is $200 million or $100 million. Also, no one has an expectation that the local club is going to spend with the likes of Los Angeles or New York. What does matter however, is that there’s more work to be done on this roster, there were (and are) assets capable of completing that work, and the front office is seemingly content with saying this is it. It’s all well and good for Minnesota to target competing with the Indians, but they’ve left plenty of juice still worth squeezing out.

 

Grade: D-

 

At the end of the day and knowing that the book-ended grades of this exercise remain pending until the dust truly settles, the Twins have a trio of definitive truths from this winter. The big-league product got better and can grow even more with some improvement and consistency from internal holdovers. The coaching staff and developmental group throughout the organization have been bolstered tremendously. Finally, there was more work to be done and a conscious decision to ignore that was made.

 

It’d be great if this Twins team put together an 87-win season, but it would be plenty disheartening if a few games gap between the Indians was left open knowing the offseason had had more to offer.

 

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[Richie the Rally Goat]

87 wins isn’t enough, and D- is too generous for resource allocation. 100 mil payroll in 2013 is fine. 100 mil in 2019 with the core entering arbitration is absolutely F. If G was possible, that’s what they deserve.

 

Aim low, get low.

[Danchat]

Eh, I'd give the free agent additions a "C" because of A) Perez being slotted for the rotation and B; no additions to a weak bullpen. There's still plenty of time for them to add a guy and there are several solid options out there... 

No Twins fan cares whether the payroll is $200 million or $100 million.

 

 

You'd be surprised, plenty of fans will care that the payroll is just $100M. The common fan may go from criticizing the Mauer deal to "why aren't you spending that money that you finally freed up?!"

Edited January 25, 2019 by Danchat

[notoriousgod71]

 

Eh, I'd give the free agent additions a "C" because of A) Perez being slotted for the rotation and B; no additions to a weak bullpen. There's still plenty of time for them to add a guy and there are several solid options out there... 

You'd be surprised, plenty of fans will care that the payroll is just $100M. The common fan may go from criticizing the Mauer deal to "why aren't you spending that money that you finally freed up?!"

 

 

If there weren't a dozen holes on this team no one would care but they need to improve every pitching staff spot with the exception of Berrios. There is no way to be competitive with this god awful pitching staff.

[Brandon]

Looks like the grades were correct. There is a B,A,D. Thats right Bad. Now lets get some bullpen help and a Machado.....

[Aerodeliria]

Nice recap...to date, but I am still keeping the photo until....

[KirbyDome89]

I wasn't aware St. Peter was part of the local crew clapping back at fans for having the audacity to criticize an embarrassingly low payroll. 

 

We've been "putting up with," ownership that has failed to properly support star players, and zero playoff success over the last 15 seasons.

 

Just sayin' Dave....

[rv78]

Pretty obvious there is no committment to winning when you have money on the table to use, top talent available to acquire, and you walk away. Your grades are generous. Schoop and Cruz should help improve the team but they aren't difference makers. The other 3, Cron, Parker, Perez are cheap alternatives to what could and should have been major upgrades. 5 new additions that will not take them to the next level. Looks to me like they are banking on the in-house talent to come through or playing another season of "wait till next year".

 

I'd give 'em a grade of "D" for player acquisitions, "C" for coaching additions simply because there is little to NO big league experience for any of the guys you mentioned, and an "F-" for resource allocations.

 

Overall off-season performance grade = "D".

 

[rdehring]

Am happy with the team going into spring training?  For the most part, yes.  Would I like to see some improvement before opening day, yes.

 

But that improvement may come from one or two of those young players forcing themselves onto the team.  For that reason, I have no problem with the guys reporting in two weeks. 

 

The fact they are costing about $100,000,000 rather than thirty or fifty percent more means nothing to me.  Matter of fact I believe it is to their advantage that it isn't a higher payroll.  Because it isn't, they are in great position to spend some dollars this spring extending a couple players and/or adding someone via trade during spring training if a couple of the young studs don't demand an OD roster spot.

[Thrylos]

I don't follow the logic above.  Common sense says that:

 

If you give them a B for the new player acquisitions, an A- for the new field management, and you believe that they achieved that by spending fewer resources than expected, then resource management should be given at least a B,  not a D-, since those resources were efficiently spent.

 

Just a logic exercise.

 

Unless the goal is to spend the most money, instead of building the best team (and those things are not always related...)

[Thrylos]

 

 

 

A recent report from the Star Tribune’s LaVelle E. Neal suggests that Perez could be the last major league acquisition for this roster.

 

To quote Yogi Berra, it ain't over till it's over.  There is a lot of time left even before Pitchers and Catchers reports.

 

I would not believe in everything the FO tells reporters to write.  Many times these messages are not set directly to fans but to agents and players they have been negotiating with, trying to create a negotiating advantage...

 

Give it month or so.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Thrylos

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think you're being generous with the D-. They could have used some help in the pen and had the funds to do something about it. They choose not to (at least so far)... Not a fan of Perez for the rotation either. I'd rather run with Mejia. 

 

I did like the FAs the got (outside of Perez, though maybe he's here b/c they think he can be a great reliver, who knows)... I thought those were smart moves and won't compain... I think I'm more annoyed right now that they could have gone out and helped the pen a bit more and have chosen not to. 

[bobs]

How about 5yrs/$150million for Harper and trade for Realmuto.  Now THAT would make Twins fans happy.

[Canizaro's Ghost]

 

I wasn't aware St. Peter was part of the local crew clapping back at fans for having the audacity to criticize an embarrassingly low payroll. 

 

We've been "putting up with," ownership that has failed to properly support star players, and zero playoff success over the last 15 seasons.

 

Just sayin' Dave....

Hey now, DSP also said he's very excited for the future and he doesn't say that very often! 

[nicksaviking]

 

New Acquisitions: Jonathan Schoop, C.J. Cron, Blake Parker, Nelson Cruz, Martin Perez

Grade: B

Coaching Additions: Rocco Baldelli, Wes Johnson, Tony Diaz, Jeremy Hefner, Tommy Watkins

For everything that could be viewed as a negative on the player acquisition side....

 

I was going to say that you would have been everyone's favorite teacher if you gave out B grades for disappointing tests!

 

The D- put everyone in their place though!

[Tom Froemming]

I think I'd give their acquisitions to date a C, at best. They've filled holes and made some improvements, so it's a passing grade, but they really haven't moved the needle much. Again, to date.

 

There are things to like about each of the guys they added, and each of them appears to be on a good deal, but these additions won't really help push the Twins into contention for the division title in my view. The only one of them you can argue is comfortably above average for his position is Cruz.

 

It takes 25 guys, well more than that really, so I can see some sense in a building strategy in which you focus on filling holes and improving depth as opposed to shooting for the stars. But they need to keep at it. There's really no reason not to further fill out the pitching staff. Opportunities will open up if some of the young guys are really pushing their way into the picture.

[jmlease1]

 

If there weren't a dozen holes on this team no one would care but they need to improve every pitching staff spot with the exception of Berrios. There is no way to be competitive with this god awful pitching staff.

 

Look, I want the Twins to do more to improve the pitching staff (especially the relief corps), but this is absurd.

 

Kyle Gibson was nearly as good as Berrios last season (in terms of actual results, he was, in fact, better but also arguably luckier) and there's a good argument to be made that it's repeatable success because it was borne out of a change in approach.

 

Taylor Rogers had a fantastic season and is in his prime. Trevor May is healthy and looked excellent when he returned.

 

There are are also other guys on this pitching staff that are more than worthy of roles (Blake Parker, Pineda, Odorizzi, etc) and young players that would be competing for a spot on most rosters (Gonsalves, Stewart, Moya, etc). Let's not pretend this pitching staff is Berrios and a pile of garbage, because it simply isn't.

 

I'd be a lot happier if they did a little more to shore up the bullpen because this has been a multi-year problem for the club, but I'm also cognizant that relief pitching is the most variable and fungible of any position out there so I get the reluctance to drop $10M+ a year on a guy for 3-5 years when next year he might go to hell.

 

Craig Kimbrel is elite...will he be elite for 4 of the next 5 years? (remember, he wasn't all that great in 2016...) Cody Allen was terrific for five years, through what should be his prime, and last year was basically 2018 Addison Reed with better press. It's a roll of the dice on relievers, man.

[nicksaviking]

 

I think I'd give their acquisitions to date a C, at best. They've filled holes and made some improvements, so it's a passing grade, but they really haven't moved the needle much. Again, to date.

 

 

Yeah, they got a couple of interesting players, but the bullpen hasn't been addressed and it was awful last year. Only Rogers, May and Parker should have a free pass onto the 25-man. Frankly, just about every other option could be removed from the 40-man as far as I'm concerned.

 

Still time to fix this, though I don't like that the team looks to once again be waiting for bargains. I'd still take two to three of Brad Boxberger, Tyler Clippard, Daniel Hudson, Shawn Kelley, Ryan Madson, Bud Norris, Nick Vincent, Adam Warren or Justin Wilson.

 

Though the way things have gone, I'll guess it's Sergio Romo because of Baldelli and Jake Diekman because of Lavine.

 

[Thebigalguy]

Thanks for the analysis. My own sense of this year's team is that Falvine expect the youngsters to step up big time. Instead of bringing in the cavalry, they've hired a coaching staff designed to get the most from the talent already on the team. It's a fair play, I think, don't you? The pipeline is full of hotshots on offense, along with the obvious projects where the sky is the limit. Even the pitching staff has a chance to make good noise if the youngsters learn from their past mistakes and pitch to their potential. We saw what happened after 1987 and 1991: nothing much. If Falvine's strategy is long-term consistency, so that the Twins become the New England Patriots of MLB, I'm good with that. Not saying, though, that Baldelli is Belichick. He has a lot to prove, but he's part of the Falvine team, which is why they let the great Molly go, to have total control. They've got it. This is it. I'm excited. Spring training!

[mikelink45]

I look at your grades and the one that sticks out is the coaching.  In theory they may be A's, but lets give them an incomplete until they show us something.  Alston was going to make the pitching better and Pickler was going to give us the on-the-field stats and both are gone.  The hitting coach had worse results than the pitching coach last year and the pitching coach was the one let go.  I cannot judge any of these hires because I personally lack the information and ability to judge them, but I have been reading about great hires, new managers who were really going to turn things around, new coaches who could really relate and in 65 years of rooting for teams and trying to page attention - I was too young before that to count - I have heard more stories about how the new guy will make all the difference to pay any attention anymore.  I mean I heard how the new FO was going to spend the money and make us so much better.

 

That is why I wrote my blogs about hitting coaches - 

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11336-hitting-coaches/

  and pitching coaches 

https://twinsdaily.com/blogs/entry/11326-minnesota-twins-pitching-coaches/

  all of whom were going to be great when they were hired and I still cannot tell if the failed or succeeded.

 

 

[old nurse]

 

How about 5yrs/$150million for Harper and trade for Realmuto.  Now THAT would make Twins fans happy.

For about 5 minutes. When Harper produces less than 5 WAR the complaining will start. When  prospects blossom, that were traded for Realmuto who is now long gone, there will be complaining.  It is not like the good old days where the team could have traded all of the first round picks  between Buxton and Kirilloff plus a couple throw ins and Loria would think he robbed you

[old nurse]

 

I don't follow the logic above.  Common sense says that:

 

If you give them a B for the new player acquisitions, an A- for the new field management, and you believe that they achieved that by spending fewer resources than expected, then resource management should be given at least a B,  not a D-, since those resources were efficiently spent.

 

Just a logic exercise.

 

Unless the goal is to spend the most money, instead of building the best team (and those things are not always related...)

 

 

To quote Yogi Berra, it ain't over till it's over.  There is a lot of time left even before Pitchers and Catchers reports.

 

I would not believe in everything the FO tells reporters to write.  Many times these messages are not set directly to fans but to agents and players they have been negotiating with, trying to create a negotiating advantage...

 

Give it month or so.

Writers use logic, fans do not.

Fans are here and now,  Keen observation is looking at the bigger picture.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Writers use logic, fans do not.

Fans are here and now,  Keen observation is looking at the bigger picture.

I think it's perfectly acceptable to be generally happy with the FA pickups that they got and still be unhappy that they didn't get more... 

 

That's my logic on this, and I think Ted's grade is appropriate.

[bobs]

 

For about 5 minutes. When Harper produces less than 5 WAR the complaining will start. When  prospects blossom, that were traded for Realmuto who is now long gone, there will be complaining.  It is not like the good old days where the team could have traded all of the first round picks  between Buxton and Kirilloff plus a couple throw ins and Loria would think he robbed you

Sarcasm.  I don't think people will ever be completely happy with the Pohlads, Falvine, payroll, Spielman, Glen Taylor, Zimmer, the color of the sky..... 

[yarnivek1972]

It MIGHT be a better team than the team that ended 2018. But, I don’t think most people believe that this is a better team than the one that broke camp in 2018.

 

I definitely don’t.

Edited January 25, 2019 by yarnivek1972

[ashbury]

Sarcasm.  I don't think people will ever be completely happy with the Pohlads, Falvine, payroll, Spielman, Glen Taylor, Zimmer, the color of the sky..... 

If an opinion's misguided on a par with denying the color of the sky, a good rebuttal should be easy to write. Consider doing that, instead of implying that people ought to keep their thoughts to themselves.

 

If the disagreement is more nuanced, then a good rebuttal is even more worth writing, as it may contribute to a worthwhile discussion.

 

PS: the sky outside my window is currently rather gray, in contrast to the "blue" I keep reading about.

 

Moderator's note: OK, I guess I've talked myself into realizing that what I'm really asking is to not threadjack this article with a tangent about positivity, negativity, sarcasm...

[whatyouknowtwinsfan]

 

Thanks for the analysis. My own sense of this year's team is that Falvine expect the youngsters to step up big time. Instead of bringing in the cavalry, they've hired a coaching staff designed to get the most from the talent already on the team. It's a fair play, I think, don't you? The pipeline is full of hotshots on offense, along with the obvious projects where the sky is the limit. Even the pitching staff has a chance to make good noise if the youngsters learn from their past mistakes and pitch to their potential. We saw what happened after 1987 and 1991: nothing much. If Falvine's strategy is long-term consistency, so that the Twins become the New England Patriots of MLB, I'm good with that. Not saying, though, that Baldelli is Belichick. He has a lot to prove, but he's part of the Falvine team, which is why they let the great Molly go, to have total control. They've got it. This is it. I'm excited. Spring training!

I think this is my take as well. While I'm disappointed in their payroll being around only $100 million, I look at where money has been allocated. Their front office and coaching staff has been carefully put together in a way to maximize production out of players. Their offense 1-9 is a threat, their rotation (outside of Perez) is no worse than league average. If there was 1 place where I'd like to see improvement, it's the bullpen. I like the names and options, but I want ONE guaranteed all star out there. My philosophy is, go in to spring training with this group and if a guy like Kimbrel hasn't been taken yet, offer him fewer years at a high AAV (2yrs/50 million or 3 years/70 million).  It's affordable for the team and it doesn't hamstring the them long-term. 

[old nurse]

 

I think it's perfectly acceptable to be generally happy with the FA pickups that they got and still be unhappy that they didn't get more... 

 

That's my logic on this, and I think Ted's grade is appropriate.

The off season is not done.  It may be done in terms of free agents, it may not be. It all depends on asking prices Many players still want more than clubs want to pay them, otherwise they would be signed. Player and agents ought to be aware of the Twins financial flexibility. When there are stil deals that could be made the off season is not over.. What is written about the front office needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Look at how many moves were done last year after this date.

[yarnivek1972]

To quote Yogi Berra, it ain't over till it's over. There is a lot of time left even before Pitchers and Catchers reports.

 

I would not believe in everything the FO tells reporters to write. Many times these messages are not set directly to fans but to agents and players they have been negotiating with, trying to create a negotiating advantage...

 

Give it month or so.

I guess I don’t call less than three weeks “a lot of time”. Free agency started 3 months ago. In other words, more than 75% of the time between free agency starting and the start of spring training has elapsed.

[old nurse]

 

 

If an opinion's misguided on a par with denying the color of the sky, a good rebuttal should be easy to write. Consider doing that, instead of implying that people ought to keep their thoughts to themselves.

 

If the disagreement is more nuanced, then a good rebuttal is even more worth writing, as it may contribute to a worthwhile discussion.

 

PS: the sky outside my window is currently rather gray, in contrast to the "blue" I keep reading about.

 

Moderator's note: OK, I guess I've talked myself into realizing that what I'm really asking is to not threadjack this article with a tangent about positivity, negativity, sarcasm...

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/702/918/5bf.gif

 

if your technical wizardry can make the gif appear, it would be useful

Edited January 25, 2019 by old nurse