Article: Reviewing the Remaining Free Agent Relievers

[Jamie Cameron]

Twins fans became apoplectic on Friday evening when Cody Allen, coming off a horrendous 2018, signed a one-year pact with the Angels. Allen represented the last big-name, big-rep free agent reliever available besides Craig Kimbrel. Twins Twitter instantly descended into a level of chaos usually reserved for dystopian Jimmy Butler practice sessions or Vikings kickers. I’m not here to talk about the payroll (too low, and I have a right to complain about eight years of pretty garbage baseball). I’m mostly interested in answering the question who are some free agent relievers who could help the Twins in 2019?As we know from the Addison Reed signing, or the Rockies bullpen in general, relief pitching free agency is a fickle mistress. With all that said, there are a fair few intriguing arms left. Here are a few I think could help the 2019 team while they’re … getting the nucleus right.

 

Nick Vincent

ERA 3.99, K/9 8.95, BB/9 2.40, FIP 3.75, xwOBA .279, avg. exit velo 85.0

 

Vincent is one of my favorite under the radar FA relievers. He had a really solid 2018 with the Mariners, albeit in a ballpark which suits his game. He made his MLB debut in 2012 with the Padres. At 6’0, 185lb, Vincent does not overpower, with a four-seem fastball, cutter, slider, and changeup combination. His fastball averaged just 90.1 mph in 2018. Due to a combination of arm side run and rise, it generates a good amount of swings and misses for a pitch with poor velocity. Vincent finished 2018 17th (out of 310 qualified pitchers) in average exit velocity. His ability to induce weak contact, in addition to what should be a good Twins outfield defense, could set him up well in 2018. He made $2.8 million in 2018.

 

Bud Norris

ERA 3.59, K/9 10.46, BB/9 3.28, FIP 3.99, xwOBA .321, Avg. exit velo 86.6

 

In recent years, Norris has made the transition from OK starter to pretty good reliever, most recently for the St. Louis Cardinals. At 6'0", 215 pounds, Norris has a more stocky, thick body, and it’s reflected in the type of reliever he has become.

 

Norris offers a hard, flat fastball the averages 95 mph which he combines with a cutter, his best pitch. Norris generated an outstanding 58 percent groundball rate on his cutter. Opposing hitters managed just a .117 ISO against this pitch and a wRC+ 64. Norris has retained an encouraging level of consistency in his two seasons of relief work, putting up almost identical K/9, BB/9, FIP, and xFIP between 2017 and 2018. He could slot into the back end of the Twins bullpen as a setup option, or even close games in a pinch. Norris earned $3 million with the Cardinals last season.

 

Brad Brach

ERA 3.59, K/9 8.62, BB/9 4.02, FIP 3.67, xwOBA .284, Avg. exit velo 86.8

 

Brach is an interesting name. He’s been one of the most consistent mid-tier relievers in recent seasons, amassing 4.3 fWAR over his last four seasons (Taylor Rogers was the only Twins reliever to amass over 1.0 in 2018). Brach is a large human, at 6’6" 215 pounds. He has a track record of excellent consistency in his last five seasons, pitching at least 60 innings in each with an ERA never surpassing 3.59.

 

Brach offers a hard fastball which averages 94.5 mph, a slider, and a changeup. Brach’s fastball took a step back last year, losing some velocity and effectiveness. He also has some of the most worrying peripherals, his K/9 decreasing from 10.48 to 8.62 in the last two seasons, while his BB/9 has climbed from 2.85 to 4.02. He made $5.2 million with Atlanta in 2018.

 

Adam Warren

ERA 3.14, K/9 9.06, BB/9 3.48, xwOBA .344, avg. exit velo 86.8

 

The 31-year-old Warren is another solid option for the Twins. Warren has a track record of success, similar to Brach, amassing 4.8 fWAR in 3 excellent seasons with the Yankees. Warren has good, not great velocity to go with a good not great fastball. He generates most of his value from his slider, which, uniquely, he throws slightly more than his fastball, around 32 percent of the time. This is interesting considering the Astros success leveraging the breaking pitches of their staff to increase effectiveness. Warren made $3.3 million with the Mariners in 2018.

 

Despite the Twins failing to land a bigger name FA reliever, there is still plenty of talent available on the FA market. Who would you like to see the Twins sign or trade for in the coming weeks?

 

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[Post-Concussive Blues]

Sign them all!

[Danchat]

Nice article! I really like Nick Vincent, and I'm surprised to even hear he was a free agent. His numbers the past few years look pretty good and he would be a fine addition to the 'pen. 

 

Norris' numbers don't impress me. He gets a lot of whiffs but he's been around 4.00 FIP the past two seasons and will be 34, so he's near the back-end of the options IMO.

 

I like Brach just like Vincent, either one would be fine.

 

Warren had some really good numbers the past couple years in Yankee Stadium, but upon arriving in Seattle, he wasn't very good. I'd love to have him if he can replicate those numbers as a Yankee.

[sweetmusicviola16]

Hunter Strickland and Alex Wilson are a couple more that would improve our pen. Though neither are flashy but will likely have one great Twins asset going for them, Cheap.

[howieramone2]

I don't care which one we get, as long as we get one. I look for Reed to rebound in a big way, and given time I think Romero will be solid until he can refine his change-up and return to the rotation in 2020.

 

I think we might be playing beer ball this season and won't lose half our games by 1 run. 

[Tom Froemming]

Bud Norris has had a weird past couple of years. 

 

First Half (74.2 IP)

2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 25.8 K-BB%

 

Second Half (45 IP)
6.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 7.5 K-BB%

 

An obvious takeaway would be that he simply wore down as the year progressed, but there's probably more to it than that. He's definitely a guy who has piqued my interest. If you can solve that issue and help him become more consistent you could have a great weapon on your hands. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Coming from the left side Justin Wilson looks worth while. He can be wild, but so can Kimbrel, but last season an 11.4 K/9.

 

I'd still like to see Mychal Givens be brought over from Baltimore by trade.

[IndianaTwin]

I like Norris, and you convinced me on Vincent.

 

I'd also still take Greg Holland as well. His St. Louis stint killed my fantasy team last year, but he had no spring training. He was studly in Washington and has a track record. 

 

Most importantly -- great summary and discussion starter. But, Jamie, only 54 posts in four years? You need to do more than one per month!

[IndianaTwin]

After reading the thoughts people are saying about going after Machado on a short-term deal, I started thinking the same about Kimbrel, and then I read this on mlb.com. https://www.mlb.com/news/best-free-agent-fits-for-craig-kimbrel/c-302893196. 

 

• 5. Twins
• The Twins are gearing up to challenge the Indians in the AL Central in 2019. They clearly think their young core is ready to make the leap, and they've added a lot of power to their offense by grabbing Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop. But after those acquisitions, the back end of their bullpen still looks like it needs a boost. They did sign Blake Parker, they have some other options like Addison Reed and Trevor May, and Taylor Rogers might be the best reliever you've never heard of. But those guys just aren't in Kimbrel's class. On the other hand, as a bridge to Kimbrel… that could a strong group. Minnesota might have to wait out the market, but the idea of adding an elite closer should be a tantalizing one, especially since the Twins' bullpen was a big question mark even during their surprise run to the playoffs two years ago.

Given that with the way the market has gone, it seems clear that he's not going to get the 70/4 that MLBTR predicted. How much would it take to get him on a 1-year deal? If no contention, he'd certainly net a haul as well.

 

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

After reading the thoughts people are saying about going after Machado on a short-term deal, I started thinking the same about Kimbrel, and then I read this on mlb.com. https://www.mlb.com/news/best-free-agent-fits-for-craig-kimbrel/c-302893196. 

 

• 5. Twins
• The Twins are gearing up to challenge the Indians in the AL Central in 2019. They clearly think their young core is ready to make the leap, and they've added a lot of power to their offense by grabbing Nelson Cruz, C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop. But after those acquisitions, the back end of their bullpen still looks like it needs a boost. They did sign Blake Parker, they have some other options like Addison Reed and Trevor May, and Taylor Rogers might be the best reliever you've never heard of. But those guys just aren't in Kimbrel's class. On the other hand, as a bridge to Kimbrel… that could a strong group. Minnesota might have to wait out the market, but the idea of adding an elite closer should be a tantalizing one, especially since the Twins' bullpen was a big question mark even during their surprise run to the playoffs two years ago.

Given that with the way the market has gone, it seems clear that he's not going to get the 70/4 that MLBTR predicted. How much would it take to get him on a 1-year deal? If no contention, he'd certainly net a haul as well.

Offer Kimbrel a 1/18. Or a 2/35 with the 2nd year being a player opt out deal. I would still want one of the remaining guys we're discussing here added on top of Kimbrel.

[howieramone2]

They said some very nice things about our favorite team, I hope everyone got a chance to read that. I agree, we have a pretty strong group to form a bridge to our closer.

 

Does anyone else feel you have get off this board to get an accurate and consistent assessment of our chances? 

[DocBauer]

Of all the above, Brach would be my choice. The numbers are there, as is the experience...including saving some games...yet he's young enough at 33 to have a few good years left. (Longer deal, extension, etc).

 

I'd be interested more than I am in Norris if his second half mystery fade could be figured out. If it is fatigue,he could still be valuable as a 1 IP closer or set up option. There is value in that, but it shortens your pen.

 

Tyler Clippard may be as good or better than any of the above list.

 

On a 3 yr downturn, is Greg Holland going to have to settle for a milb invite? If so, why not us?

 

1a] Brach

1b] Clippers

3] Buchholz: at 34 and multiple time missed due to injury, would he consider a move to the pen to prolong his career and hopefully avoid the DL with more appearances but fewer IP?

[Mike Sixel]

They said some very nice things about our favorite team, I hope everyone got a chance to read that. I agree, we have a pretty strong group to form a bridge to our closer.

 

Does anyone else feel you have get off this board to get an accurate and consistent assessment of our chances?

Some of us think they can challenge, which is why we hoped for a trade of prospects for a good pitcher. Or three RP signings from a deep class. Other than Cruz, their signings are all about value.

[lukeduke1980]

Notably absent from this and any other list: Martin Perez. What is happening

[ChrisKnutson]

Just signed Martin Perez. Hopefully the plan is to use him from the pen.

[mikelink45]

None. I feel like the site contrarian, but I say this seriously because our coaches should be able to work with the rookies and minor leaguers we have and coax the stats that these players have.  Just adding someone because they have been around does nothing for me.  I think we missed our opportunity for the type of reliever we need and it is now better to concentrate on making our own talent perform better.

[ChrisKnutson]

All of them (Brach, Wilson, Holland, Norris, etc) should be within reach, but realistically (from ownership’s perspective) the Twins are likely limited to only cheap mediocre middle relievers like Kelley, Warren, or Romo, not very inspiring...

[Danchat]

 

None. I feel like the site contrarian, but I say this seriously because our coaches should be able to work with the rookies and minor leaguers we have and coax the stats that these players have.  Just adding someone because they have been around does nothing for me.  I think we missed our opportunity for the type of reliever we need and it is now better to concentrate on making our own talent perform better.

Fair enough, I think the problem is that most of the members here have lost faith in the development process. The Twins minor leagues have developed so few successful relievers in the past 8 years that we have zero hope for minor league relievers to make an impact on this team. I wish I could agree with you.

[jud6312]

Have any of them ever had an Arlington mailing address? 

[TheLeviathan]

Yes, there is talent, the problem is that it's inferior to the talent that was previously available.

 

None of whom have signed insanely high deals either.  This has been a missed opportunity if we settle for Parker and one of these guys.

[specialiststeve]

Um... that is it? Tons of relievers out there yet only mentioning 4 seems a bit empty. The four mentioned are okay like many of the others still out there but the list is long and the article short.... fairly disappointing....

[Jamie Cameron]

Agree, definitely a ton of other names to look out for. I specifically looked at RHP but LHP would have included Alex Wilson and Xavier Cedeno.

 

Hunter Strickland and Alex Wilson are a couple more that would improve our pen. Though neither are flashy but will likely have one great Twins asset going for them, Cheap.

 

[Jamie Cameron]

Great noticing. Very Gordon-esque tale of two halves.

Bud Norris has had a weird past couple of years. 

 

First Half (74.2 IP)

2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 25.8 K-BB%

 

Second Half (45 IP)
6.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 7.5 K-BB%

 

An obvious takeaway would be that he simply wore down as the year progressed, but there's probably more to it than that. He's definitely a guy who has piqued my interest. If you can solve that issue and help him become more consistent you could have a great weapon on your hands. 

 

[Jamie Cameron]

LOL! Thanks for reading! I only started writing for the site last season, plus two kids, school to run, I'll get my rate up when spring gets going!

I like Norris, and you convinced me on Vincent.

 

I'd also still take Greg Holland as well. His St. Louis stint killed my fantasy team last year, but he had no spring training. He was studly in Washington and has a track record. 

 

Most importantly -- great summary and discussion starter. But, Jamie, only 54 posts in four years? You need to do more than one per month!

 

[Jamie Cameron]

 

None. I feel like the site contrarian, but I say this seriously because our coaches should be able to work with the rookies and minor leaguers we have and coax the stats that these players have.  Just adding someone because they have been around does nothing for me.  I think we missed our opportunity for the type of reliever we need and it is now better to concentrate on making our own talent perform better.

This is an interesting thought. I'd respectfully disagree. I think it's more nuanced than that. I agree that most of the guys that can take the pen ceiling to the next level are gone, but I think there are guys who can still raise the floor. If they were punting the season, I'd agree with you. If they had given their internal guys more innings on the back end of a lost season last year, then it maybe wouldn't be a question that needs answering.

[Jamie Cameron]

LOL. You should write a more comprehensive blog post outlining the rest and what they might bring to the table. Just chose 4 I liked. Didn't claim a comprehensive list.

Um... that is it? Tons of relievers out there yet only mentioning 4 seems a bit empty. The four mentioned are okay like many of the others still out there but the list is long and the article short.... fairly disappointing....

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

LOL. You should write a more comprehensive blog post outlining the rest and what they might bring to the table. Just chose 4 I liked. Didn't claim a comprehensive list.

Your last sentence asked us who we would like to see the Twins sign or trade for, so any others you passed it on for us to bring up and debate. I think the guys you pointed out are all credible lower tier options. This is a good food for thought article. 

[sweetmusicviola16]

 

Agree, definitely a ton of other names to look out for. I specifically looked at RHP but LHP would have included Alex Wilson and Xavier Cedeno.

Instead of Justin Wilson we get Martin Perez.....

 

Lovely.

[highlander]

I like Brad Brach.

[Twodogs]

I like the idea of taking a flier on Holland? He has had great success in the past.