Article: Twins Trying to Sustain Excellence

[Ted Schwerzler]

If you’re feeling a bit underwhelmed at the close of the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, I’m sure you’re not the only Minnesota Twins fan in that boat. The only free agent acquisitions made thus far include Johnathan Schoop and Ronald Torreyes. While the former has big-time potential, there’s not much here to move the needle. Nelson Cruz rumors have started to become noteworthy, but there’s yet to be a deal in place. As Minnesota practices caution, it’s worth wondering if they’re still waiting on internal sustenance.Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton create a duo that rivals almost any other organization's best prospects to hit the big leagues together. Both finished their prospect tenure within the top 10-15 players across all of baseball. While Sano exploded onto the scene as a rookie, it was late in 2017 that Buxton had his coming out party. At the current juncture though, neither has lived up to his potential and both have plenty of questions to answer.

 

Should everything break right, Buxton and Sano could combine for something like 10.0 fWAR during any given season. That would make both players more than relevant during MVP discussions, and it’d certainly have the Minnesota Twins eyeing the top of the AL Central Division standings. Right now, that is the peak, but it’s about getting them there that the Twins in 2019 will focus on.

 

It’s not just that pair when it comes to future success, however. Max Kepler has long been one of Minnesota’s heralded young stars, and it’s time he found consistency of his own. A guy that has been vocal about rebelling against the launch angle revolution, Kepler seemed to make a change in 2018. Although the numbers left him in the same middle state he’d finished in since his debut in 2016, the process seemed to be one worth building upon.

 

Looking back at Kepler’s 2018 season, he posted a career high fly ball rate (46.2%) and married to with a career low 37.8% ground ball rate. His 37.1% hard hit rate was also a high-water mark, and his strikeout rate was below 20% for the first time (15.7%). Hitting the ball higher and harder is a great start, but a .236 BABIP on a .224 average suggest his trajectory has plenty of work left to be done. Turning more of the fly balls into line drives should open avenues for more pop outs to become extra base hits or home runs.

 

Plate discipline is something Max has consistently improved upon since reaching the big leagues. He was at his best across the board last year, notching impressive totals for chase rate, swinging strike percentage, and contact numbers. Again, it’s just another notch on the checklist of a process being committed to. What both Kepler and hitting coach James Rowson now need to unlock is the results.

There’s no denying Minnesota’s future and sustained success relies on the backs of Sano and Buxton. Those two alone aren’t going to be able to carry the burden for the club however and having other key contributors in a similar age bracket is a must. Jose Berrios can anchor the rotation, and Eddie Rosario’s ability will be utilized as long as it lasts. Kepler has the tools to be a big-time star as well though, and the only thing holding him back is the unlocked potential of the entire tool arsenal at his disposal.

 

Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should certainly be ridiculed if they fail to spend appropriately this winter. The money is more than available, and opportunity is on the table for Rocco Baldelli’s club. It’s understandable that they’d be a bit hesitant at making the big moves before seeing how some key guys already within the organization respond when backed up against a make or break situation. Bringing in new talent only to suffer another year of internal flops would be anything but ideal, but a commitment to supplementing, and a realization of actual value by those currently here, could lead to something truly special for the hometown nine.

 

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[Mike Sixel]

Don't you have to have success, to sustain it?

[PseudoSABR]

 

Don't you have to have success, to sustain it?

Beat me to it.

[pierre75275]

Beat me to it too

[Mr. Brooks]

Me as well.

[Winston Smith]

570-726 the last 8 years. The bar is rather low if that is sustained success, excellence.

[Jacksson]

Shouldn't the Twins ATTAIN Excellence - BEFORE they try to SUSTAIN it?

[Thrylos]

 

 

Twins Trying to Stain Excellence

 

FTFY

 

 

Edited December 14, 2018 by Thrylos

[Jacksson]

Speaking of Excellence:

 

Below is a recap of all the players the Twins LOST in the Rule 5 Draft:

 

 

 

Below is a recap of all the players the Twins SELECTED in the Rule 5 Draft:

RHP Dusten Knight (AAA Phase - Round #01, Selection #10)

 

FYI: the San Francisco Giants have one of the lowest ranked Minor League Systems in MLB.

 

 

So much for EXCELLENCE....

[DocBauer]

Come on gang, this is about building the team and the organization in to a sustainable, competitive and winning franchise. At no point was this piece about sustaining the past few years.

[Danchat]

 

Speaking of Excellence:

Below is a recap of all the players the Twins LOST in the Rule 5 Draft:



Below is a recap of all the players the Twins SELECTED in the Rule 5 Draft:
RHP Dusten Knight (AAA Phase - Round #01, Selection #10)

FYI: the San Francisco Giants have one of the lowest ranked Minor League Systems in MLB.


So much for EXCELLENCE....

I see zero reason for a lack of excellence in what you've provided. Rule 5 AAA moves mean basically nothing in the grand scheme of things. And I agree with everyone else that the Twins need to find excellence first.

[D.C Twins]

 

Don't you have to have success, to sustain it?

YES! YES! YES!

 

(says the horse looking behind him for the missing cart)

[akmanak]

Maybe the new excellence is just doing enough to make the season exciting to have a .500 record. That is excellence at its finest.

[PseudoSABR]

 

Come on gang, this is about building the team and the organization in to a sustainable, competitive and winning franchise. At no point was this piece about sustaining the past few years.

Right. Bad title, fair article/analysis. 

[MABB1959]

Why can’t they sign Cruz as an everyday DH? How exciting it would be. Much of my frustration the last 10 years is we haven’t had a regular lineup. Who is the last real HR hitting DH we have had?

[MABB1959]

Maybe the new excellence is just doing enough to make the season exciting to have a .500 record. That is excellence at its finest.

. Making it to a one game play off and losing?

[DocBauer]

Right. Bad title, fair article/analysis.

 

BINGO!

 

Once in a while you just need to take a step back and look at things objectively, no matter what the situation is. In this case, it's baseball. More to the point, TWINS baseball. The reality is, despite disappointment and frustration that boils over, there is a new sheriff and deputy in charge of things. And I'm not going to rehash their early moves, but clearly they have been looking at changing the entire culture of the team from the top on down. They now have a new manager...arguably the guy/type of guy they wanted all along...and a mostly new staff in place to move forward. And it's actually pretty easy to point out individual players in all of baseball who are kicking it as 20-21-22yo and ask why the Twins don't have that. But that is not the norm. Reality check tells us that is true. And there are arguments made that "lots of teams had injuries And they overcame those". And there IS validity to that statement. But whether it be finances, scouting, top prospects at AAA knocking on the door already, better planning at the AAA level or luck, every team and every situation is different.

 

Note: I have been critical of the FO in their regard to the Rochester roster last season. But to be fair, when 2018 began, the best prospects were all AA and below players. That doesn't excuse a failure, but "other teams" may have also been more top heavy with guys ready for their chance.

 

Regardless, Ted's point is clear and accurate. Sano, Buxton, Kepler, etc, are talented...young...athletes with tremendous potential, and all highly ranked and regarded who have shown flashes of their potential. I still say and believe you couldn't have asked for a more bizzarre/weird, cursed series of events for 2018 than we saw. (No need to re-hash it all). Maybe Sano just doesn't care enough. Maybe Buxton is just injury prone and can't make contact. Maybe Kepler is a tremendous athlete who is a nice reserve. And we could break down Polanco, Rosario, etc, and look for all the negatives we could find, were that our agenda.

 

But just focusing on these 3, as Ted has here, Sano hasn't produced some of the big numbers be has, and earned an All Star appearance in 2017 because he was lucky. Buxton hasn't flashed great plays and an outstanding second half in 2017 because he was lucky and nobody was looking. Kepler hasn't shown improvement, as Ted spoke of...while still showing bizarre splits at times...with contact and solid OB skills, along with laser-shots when he makes contact because pitchers just don't consider him a threat. No. There is REAL potential and ability here. What happens next is up the players, and Rocco, and his coaching staff to develop and unlock that potential.

[DocBauer]

Why can’t they sign Cruz as an everyday DH? How exciting it would be. Much of my frustration the last 10 years is we haven’t had a regular lineup. Who is the last real HR hitting DH we have had?

I don't like a full time DH, unless he's exceptional. I never have. I've always preferred roster flexibility, even if one guy usually handled that spot. TK was always very good about handling his roster. Back in the day, Randy Bush saw a lot of time at DH. But he was also a decent corner OF and 1B. When he was in the field, another player got a "half day" off by DH. Later on, Larkin would spell Hrbek at 1B. (Might have even seen a few games in the OF, but memory fades). Chilli Davis was probably the only true DH TK ever had. But even be played a little OF here and there, if only to prepare for the post season.

 

I'm OK with Cruz at this point, all being said, because I think he fills a real role. Someone, probably Austin, though I hate to lose him/give up on him, has to go. You absolutely need another quality "utility" guy besides Adrianza.

 

Absolutely waiting for Rooker and Khirilloff to join the current mix in the next year or so to make the entire OF/1B/DH situation one of great strength and versatility. (Might toss Wade in there too). But for now, I'm OK with Cruz onboard.

[bird]

 

Speaking of Excellence:

Below is a recap of all the players the Twins LOST in the Rule 5 Draft:



Below is a recap of all the players the Twins SELECTED in the Rule 5 Draft:
RHP Dusten Knight (AAA Phase - Round #01, Selection #10)

FYI: the San Francisco Giants have one of the lowest ranked Minor League Systems in MLB.


So much for EXCELLENCE....

 

 

So much for RELEVANCE...

Edited December 14, 2018 by birdwatcher

[rdehring]

Well that headline sure brought out the whips for a good beat down.

 

But thanks for a good look at three players who have the ability to put the Twins in the playoffs this October.  Yes, things need to go better throughout the roster than last year.  But 2019 is an odd year and if I recall the last two (2017 and 2015) were both better than those pesky even numbered years.  

 

So lets put the whips away guys and get ready for baseball which is only what, 60 days or so away.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Mike brings this one up regularly, but so far hasn't... honestly I'm a little disappointed.... How does one sustain anything when there are no payroll commitments past 2019 or 2020? Roster turnover of 30% when you lose 100 games is good. Roster turnover of 30% when you win 85 games... well...

[Number3]

Not only is the title of this thread cause for my eyebrows to levitate above my receding hair line but the fact that Sano, Buxton and Kepler are key to the Twins' 2019 and beyond is about as unique of a perspective as noticing that the sun rose on the eastern horizon this morning.

 

Where has this guy been, on one of the Mars probes?

Edited December 14, 2018 by Number3

[Vanimal46]

Not only is the title of this thread cause for my eyebrows to levitate above my receding hair line but the fact that Sano, Buxton and Kepler are key to the Twins' 2019 and beyond is about as unique of a perspective as noticing that the sun rose on the eastern horizon this morning.

 

Correct. There is no confusion what the vision is. It's been the same vision since 2015 when Buxton and Sano were called up.

 

Problem is, there are plenty of concerns whether the Twins are building around players who won't take this organization to the next level.

[SomeGuy]

The Twins should be spending this offseason on building and sustaining an elite bullpen. 

 

I don't think it is a coincidence that the top 5 teams in terms of bullpen ERA made the playoffs last year.  7 of the top 10 made the playoffs while 9 had winning records.  Easily a deeper talent pool in Free Agency compared to SP and position players.

[ChrisKnutson]

The Twins should be spending this offseason on building and sustaining an elite bullpen. 

 

I don't think it is a coincidence that the top 5 teams in terms of bullpen ERA made the playoffs last year.  7 of the top 10 made the playoffs while 9 had winning records.  Easily a deeper talent pool in Free Agency compared to SP and position players.

 

I know no two pitchers are the same when coming back from injury (especially TJ), but Trevor May’s performance last year almost makes me wanna take a chance on David Phelps, who before tearing his UCL, was just starting to become one of the better relief pitchers in the game.

 

Obviously, I’d much rather sign Britton, Kimbrel, Ottavino, Robertson, and Miller but since we’re not pursuing those type of markets this offseason, signing Phelps to a 2yr/$10M deal doesn’t seem like an unreasonable gamble; one season to get back on his feet, another to go out and prove he’s the same guy he was in 2016-17.

 

The result may not be an elite bullpen, but if we can end the offseason, at the very least, having signed Phelps, Blake Parker, and Cody Allen, I’ll have nothing to complain about.

[rv78]

 

Why can’t they sign Cruz as an everyday DH? How exciting it would be. Much of my frustration the last 10 years is we haven’t had a regular lineup. Who is the last real HR hitting DH we have had?

I believe that was the plan last season with Morrison. How'd that work out?

[rv78]

As for sustaining excellence, do the writers on this site actually think before they slap an article together? That's the most rediculous title I think I've ever seen on TD.

[jokin]

 

I believe that was the plan last season with Morrison. How'd that work out?

 

LoMo ≠ Cruz

 

LoMo had a career year in 2017 amidst a very mediocre career.

 

By comparison, some might be surprised to know:

 

Nelson Cruz is the leader in HRs over he last 10 years with 338 dingers.

 

Only Cabrera and Cano have more XBH over the last 10 years.

 

Nelson Cruz has the highest wRC+  for all DH's over the last 10 years.

 

Cruz is winding down in his career, as his numbers reflect, but he'd be light years better than a LoMo or Cron-type as the primary DH.

 

 

[jokin]

 

 

As for sustaining excellence, do the writers on this site actually think before they slap an article together? That's the most rediculous title I think I've ever seen on TD.

 

Concur. But there has been a lot of competition....

[howieramone2]

 

. Making it to a one game play off and losing?

Did you know they were the first team in the history of baseball to go from losing 100 games, to making the playoffs?