Article: Standing Pat as a Strategy

[Major League Ready]

 

Trading Gibson isn't standing pat, it is picking a direction. If they aren't serious about contending this year, why keep Gibson and not get some great minor league talent for him? Or, they can keep him, and get around the 40th pick next year (a pick which has an almost 5% chance of mattering, give or take).

 

Would you agree that we have a shot at 2019 but we have great uncertainty surrounding many players? Is it a good idea in general to make a decision (pick a direction) with a great deal of uncertainty. What is the benefit of deciding now? How much better Is the return on Gibson going to be now than at the deadline. If the difference is small, why pick a direction when you will have much better information in July? 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Would you agree that we have a shot at 2019 but we have great uncertainty surrounding many players? Is it a good idea in general to make a decision (pick a direction) with a great deal of uncertainty. What is the benefit of deciding now? How much better Is the return on Gibson going to be now than at the deadline. If the difference is small, why pick a direction when you will have much better information in July? 

 

Reasonable last question, to which I don't know the answer right now. I'd guess the return is greater now, but I could be wrong. I know if I was a team that was serious about next year, I'd want Gibson all year, to increase my odds. 

 

Edit:

No, I don't agree this roster has a real shot at anything this year. Not without a legit SP and 2-3 more good RPs being added. I would have also added a legit OF that could DH some. But that seems unlikely given the Cron deal.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Mike Sixel

[markos]

 

Reasonable last question, to which I don't know the answer right now. I'd guess the return is greater now, but I could be wrong. I know if I was a team that was serious about next year, I'd want Gibson all year, to increase my odds. 

 

Edit:

No, I don't agree this roster has a real shot at anything this year. Not without a legit SP and 2-3 more good RPs being added. I would have also added a legit OF that could DH some. But that seems unlikely given the Cron deal.

There is certainly a non-zero risk that Gibson could get injured between now and July. That needs to be factored in. Gibson could be a completely worthless asset in 6 months.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There is certainly a non-zero risk that Gibson could get injured between now and July. That needs to be factored in. Gibson could be a completely worthless asset in 6 months.

 

Or regress back to old Gibson (which I don't believe will happen, but is a risk).

[Mr. Brooks]

I mean, they have added two good players so far and the Winter Meetings just started... no realist to be non-optimistic at this point.

We don't know if they added 2 good players.

I'm okay with both signings, but let's remember both guys were non tendered by competitive teams.

[bird]

 

This is not an answer to the posting asking for a three year plan from one of us.  Give me the money and resources of Lavine and Falvey and I will come up with a plan.  All I can say is waiting for Buxton and Sano year after year after year is getting quite old.  I am waiting for Lavine and Falvey and every year I am told they have a plan.  What is their plan?  Here are the players that they have signed or traded for in 2017 and 2018, there are 54 and I skipped a few from 2017.  So this is more than a 40 man roster - how much have these moves pushed us forward?  What is the strategy of the FO?  

 

 

I realize that, here in this regime's second full off-season, that it is common logic to think of last year's record and the current 40-man roster as evidence that the FO has no strategy. Things are a lot more complicated than that. A deeper and more complete assessment tells us much more.

 

I believe Falvey knows this is an asset management game. Acquire, develop, produce, and transition players as assets. 

 

His first evaluation, rightfully, was about talent evaluation and the whole acquisition process. I personally believe he was largely impressed with many of the scouting personnel, but felt they were not supported properly. Much of the first year's efforts went to investments in behind-the scenes "infrastructure" in observation technologies, information systems. changes in methodology, and analytical support to bolster those among the scouting ranks that were receptive and meritorious. The organization has supported this and has committed to massive increases in the annual budget related to talent evaluation and acquisition alone. These substantial and important strategic advances have yet to impact the 25-man roster. However, you're getting perhaps your first glimpses of it on the 40-man. Law calls the talent pipeline "loaded", Sickles ranks it as a top 5 system now. It's a consensus top 10 system.

 

His attention has clearly been turned to development. He's said this. He's already made huge technology investments, completely revamped everything in the fitness, nutrition, training, and medical area, canned tons of field people who don't qualify under his upgraded and updated standards, brought in new, innovative people and concepts all the way through the ranks, including at Target Field....the list goes on. These have been bold and aggressive initiatives. From the inside looking out, the baseball operation of this organization looks and feels different, because it is. Again, these incredible advances can't be seen when you look at the 40-man roster.

 

Personally, I expect to see signs of these changes subtly permeating the things we all care about starting in 2019, in bigger ways than implementing shifts. Opener/primary usage perhaps, maybe some anecdotes about performance breakthroughs for pitchers and hitters, that sort of thing. We'll see if better coaching results in some on-field production. It may still be too early to say we'll have players more ready to produce upon arrival, who knows?

 

I may be stupidly optimistic in the long term, and like the rest of my pals here, I've endured the frustrations. But when I see the things going on behind the scenes, I can't help but think we could start to see some fun things happening as early as late 2019 at the front of the store. BTW, I liked the horse-trading they did last trade deadline. Another good sign to me.

 

Asset management. Acquire talent, develop talent, get talent to produce, stay liquid and sell high from surplus to increase overall asset value top to bottom.

[joefish]

I hope i am still here to post when this rebuilding plan works. Time is kicking the crap out of me, and my patience.

Go T'ins. But hurry the eff up.

[IndianaTwin]

Random, but not necessarily deep, thoughts on an overcast Dec. 10...

 

1. Two signings by Dec. 10 doesn't feel like "standing pat."
2. The front office M.O. doesn't seem to focus on making massive moves. Its needle-moving seems to come in the form of nudging.
3. Maybe it's because I'm paying more attention, but it seems like this front office is much more active than in the past. The cumulative effect of many needle-nudging moves can be significant.
4. They also don't make moves that box themselves into a corner. Cron and Schoop are one-year signings, but they are controllable. With a good year in either/both cases, they are back in 2020. With a bad year, we are glad they weren't two-year signings. It's also only Dec. 10. Sins of omission we can't measure, but it seems they've made very few, if any, sins of commission that they couldn't/didn't move on from relatively quickly. And Darvish would be at least one move that we could call a sin of omission in not pursuing more aggressively, but it seems like a good choice in retrospect.
5. I think of the Royals of a few years ago. I don't follow them closely, but it seems like they had a number of highly regarded guys who came up and seemed like disappointments when they didn't turn the team around immediately. But by staying with them, they were able to finally supplement at the right time and had a couple of really fun years. 
6. It would be kind of fun to have a nice, shiny Machado at SS. But if the choice is Machado, Austin, and three relievers from Rochester for a combined $35-$40 million vs. Schoop, Cron, Austin, David Robertson, Joakim Soria, and Zach Britton for a similar amount, I'll take the latter. It's only Dec. 10, remember.
7. This morning, the Twins were listed among nine teams interested in J.A. Happ. Jon Heyman just listed the Mets, Yankees, Blue Jays, AND... your Minnesota Twins. Given his age, I think he'd be an awesome overpay signing at two years, plus an option. Will it happen? Who knows, but it's just Dec. 10. I'd rather overpay on him for two years than for five years on this year's Darvish.

In other words, if March 28 brings me something like Castro & Garver; Cron & Austin; Schoop, Polanco, Sano, and Ehire; Rosario, Buxton, Garver and Cave; Berrios, Gibson, Happ*, Odo & Pineda (Romero/Mejia); May, Rogers, Reed, Robertson*, Soria*, Britton* (Romero/Mejia, rookies), I am very much on board. And I think it's still possible to get there. It's only Dec. 10, remember.

 

Then, it will be easy enough to make follow-up decisions in June or July on whether to go the rest of the way in with a minor league system that's still pretty loaded and a budget that isn't overworked. If most of the guys HAVEN'T come through, we'll be glad we didn't go all-in. 

 

(*Placeholders -- insert your preferences, but these are some of mine.)

[gunnarthor]

I think the anger I have over this is that free agency is usually not that worth wile. You might occasionally hit with a guy like Santana in 2017 or Hughes' first season with us but usually we're just moving pieces around while still relying on the home grown product to present the bulk of the work. That's how it's almost always been for the Twins and it looks like that is how it'll remain. 

 

But this year is the one year that the Twins actually had enormous payroll flexibility and a great number of potential difference makers were on the market. That doesn't really happen every year. Last year the biggest position player contract went to Eric Hosmer. And the Twins seem set to not use this perfect storm of opportunity in a way that will help the team not only next year but also in 2020 and beyond. 

[KirbyDome89]

 

How many super teams have we ever seen in the AL Central? Chicago and Detroit have only reached 95 wins twice each in the history of the AL Central. Cleveland 4 times, but only 2 since 1997. KC, never. Twins, once (although twice more at 94).

I get that Chicago and others won't be awful forever, but I don't think there is a serious risk of falling behind a "super team" in the AL Central. An 80-85 win forecast should be enough to keep us in the mix most every year. Not that we should limit ourselves to that, but it's not necessarily bad to have a few years like that while hopefully building toward something better.

How many times have we seen three teams this bad in the AL Central? The Twins have the lowest win total, (87) by a division champ in the last two decades. It's pretty well established that a team is going to need to be in the 90s to win the division. 

 

80-85 wins puts you "in the conversation," for the play in WC game, and even then it's likely short. If the idea is to feign interest in building a competitive team and be just good enough to put fans in the seats then shooting for that 80-85 win mark is a good goal. 

[Major League Ready]

 

There is certainly a non-zero risk that Gibson could get injured between now and July. That needs to be factored in. Gibson could be a completely worthless asset in 6 months.

 

True. He could also have a career year. I don't have a problem with them trading him now. I actually think Mike is right they don't have a legit shot but I don't see the need to totally sell out 2019 for a marginal increase in return on Gibson. I also don't think there are any FAs available at the positions we need to fill that would make even close to the type of difference necessary to give them a realistic shot. The only players that would elevate this roster to the point of a realistic shot are be trade candidates that would have an extremely high cost in terms of prospects (IE Realmuto). Even with Realmuto, Syndergaard, and a better 2B, they would still be long-shots to win a playoff series unless most of the other uncertainties pan out nicely. 

 

Let's keep in mind we have a 4-5 year window. Only Sano & Rosario are FAs in 2022. Everyone else is 2023. The teams that have been the most successful at rebuilding over the past decade are the teams that actually committed to a rebuild. The last regime refused to commit and we follow plans destined to top out at 85-88 wins instead of doing what is necessary to actually build a team capable of more than winning a weak division.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Major League Ready

[SomeGuy]

"Standing Pat" probably isn't the best description since they have already addressed 2 areas of need but I get the idea, they weren't headline grabbing moves.  We can be assume that at least one bullpen addition happens sometime and it probably won't be Kimbrel caliber.

 

Overall I like the strategy. If a few key guys stay healthy and effective than we can compete.  If they don't we will have plenty of rental options to offer other teams.  Either way we will have a better idea of where our core stands in the bigger picture.

[TheLeviathan]

 

No, I was just pointing out that they are spending some money on the rotation in 2019, whereas they could have non-tendered or traded Odorizzi/Gibson if they wanted to go extreme with the "stand pat" approach. And I bet we'll see fairly significant $ spent on 2-3 more pitching staff additions, as well as a sizable deal to lock up Berrios.  

 

While you are technically correct on the first portion of your response, I feel that is too convenient/kind/(struggling for the right word).  

 

I don't think frustration over spending is solved by saying "yeah, but look at these non-zero allocations of payroll!".  We have plenty of money to do a lot this offseason.  I hope the second half of what you said is true, but if that happens it also might no longer qualify as "standing pat" either.

[Tomj14]

 

 

 

Let's keep in mind we have a 4-5 year window. Only Sano & Rosario are FAs in 2022. Everyone else is 2023. The teams that have been the most successful at rebuilding over the past decade are the teams that actually committed to a rebuild. The last regime refused to commit and we follow plans destined to top out at 85-88 wins instead of doing what is necessary to actually build a team capable of more than winning a weak division.

Aren't Kepler and Buxton's last year of Arb 21 as well?

[sdangus]

 

I think that they will be fine staying pat as far as position players go.

 

They need pitchers badly, and they will need them even worse next off-season when Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pinesa are all free agents.

 

 

 

[mikelink45]

 

I realize that, here in this regime's second full off-season, that it is common logic to think of last year's record and the current 40-man roster as evidence that the FO has no strategy. Things are a lot more complicated than that. A deeper and more complete assessment tells us much more.

 

I believe Falvey knows this is an asset management game. Acquire, develop, produce, and transition players as assets. 

 

His first evaluation, rightfully, was about talent evaluation and the whole acquisition process. I personally believe he was largely impressed with many of the scouting personnel, but felt they were not supported properly. Much of the first year's efforts went to investments in behind-the scenes "infrastructure" in observation technologies, information systems. changes in methodology, and analytical support to bolster those among the scouting ranks that were receptive and meritorious. The organization has supported this and has committed to massive increases in the annual budget related to talent evaluation and acquisition alone. These substantial and important strategic advances have yet to impact the 25-man roster. However, you're getting perhaps your first glimpses of it on the 40-man. Law calls the talent pipeline "loaded", Sickles ranks it as a top 5 system now. It's a consensus top 10 system.

 

His attention has clearly been turned to development. He's said this. He's already made huge technology investments, completely revamped everything in the fitness, nutrition, training, and medical area, canned tons of field people who don't qualify under his upgraded and updated standards, brought in new, innovative people and concepts all the way through the ranks, including at Target Field....the list goes on. These have been bold and aggressive initiatives. From the inside looking out, the baseball operation of this organization looks and feels different, because it is. Again, these incredible advances can't be seen when you look at the 40-man roster.

 

Personally, I expect to see signs of these changes subtly permeating the things we all care about starting in 2019, in bigger ways than implementing shifts. Opener/primary usage perhaps, maybe some anecdotes about performance breakthroughs for pitchers and hitters, that sort of thing. We'll see if better coaching results in some on-field production. It may still be too early to say we'll have players more ready to produce upon arrival, who knows?

 

I may be stupidly optimistic in the long term, and like the rest of my pals here, I've endured the frustrations. But when I see the things going on behind the scenes, I can't help but think we could start to see some fun things happening as early as late 2019 at the front of the store. BTW, I liked the horse-trading they did last trade deadline. Another good sign to me.

 

Asset management. Acquire talent, develop talent, get talent to produce, stay liquid and sell high from surplus to increase overall asset value top to bottom.

I appreciate your optimism and I hope you are right about the behind the scenes improvement, but I am not really able to see that.  Maybe I will.  At the same time, it is owed to the fans to have a better product on the field while building for the future.  

[KirbyDome89]

I'd characterize the information that's come out during the offseason as "letting fans down easy." I get the need to spin the decision and/or lack of moves in a positive light, but I'll give the writers here more credit and say some of the articles & comments are written with teeth clenched. 

 

We're in year 3 of this FO.

"Wait and see," was year 1.

"Dip your toes into FA because we're not entirely sure what we have with the young players," was year 2.

Now we're back to "wait and see," for year 3 and that's a smart decision?" Pick a lane. Seriously, it's been 3 years now, and if the FO is unsure of which direction to go at this point why should we believe the light bulb suddenly turns on down the road? 

 

Also, the notion that the Twins sink or swim with Buxton & Sano (I agree) but they can't add talent because they don't know what they have in either player is laughable. If both burn out and FA signings were once again a bust who cares? The team would be tacking on another 3+ years of rebuilding at that point anyway. If Buxton and Sano flop and the Twins hit on FA signings then at worst they could move those assets to aid the continued rebuild. If Buxton and Sano bounce back what's this team's ceiling as it's currently constructed? Chasing a 2nd WC spot and getting bounced early? The cost of "standing pat," is greater than some are making it out to be. 

[sdangus]

 

I think that they will be fine staying pat as far as position players go.

 

They need pitchers badly, and they will need them even worse next off-season when Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pinesa are all free agents.

 

Which is another reason they need to audition as many of this current group of possible starters as possible so they know what they have going forward. If not, they go into next off season with more question marks than this one.

 

[Surelock]

With what the Twins have done this off season, new manager with no experience, new coaches, Mauer retiring, and a firing of a manager that was a HOF player that the owner endorsed, the present players on the roster have to be shaking their heads. 
Look at what this FO has done in their 2 years of control.  Rule 5 drafts (in one the FO traded 1st pick for a pick taken later), Jaime Garcia trades, last year’s moves that were made in July & August, letting Randy Rosario, Nick Burdi, & JT Chargois go without being given a chance, trading team leader’s like Dozier & Escabar for prospects, firing a manager without having a replacement ready, and how some players/pitchers on the AAA rosters were not given a chance at the MLB level.  How does the current roster or FA view these moves when the FO comes calling for interest in signing a contract?  Will Berrios, Eddie Rosario, Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rogers, Hilgenberger, Mays, etc want to sign contracts or contract extensions with the Twins? 
This Twins team has seen a lot the past 2 years and not much good by the current FO.  The Twins FO is on the hook for this year to make something positive happen.  The job interview time is over and ownership will start reviewing their hiring.  That is how a business works.

[howeda7]

Cutting $50 million off  the payroll when the division is right there for the taking is shameful.

[Major League Ready]

 

Aren't Kepler and Buxton's last year of Arb 21 as well?

 

2022 according to Baseball Reference. Buxton got pushed back a year when they kept him in the minors last year.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Major League Ready

[Nick Nelson]

 

Ah. My mistake, Chief. Concur then.

 

Nick?

When I say "standing pat" here I just mean staying the course -- not making any bold commitments or changes in direction because you're still tethered to the existing vision. Maintaining as much spending/roster flexibility as possible. I don't agree that this isn't strategic. You can disagree with the strategy but it's a strategy.

[jtkoupal]

Current Twins Projected Lineup:

 

C Castro (Defenseive Catcher who missed almost all of 2018)

1B Cron (Actually was pretty good away from the Trop and decent vs RHP)

2B Schoop (Counting on a bounce-back year)

SS Polanco (Hope he takes the next step)

3B Sanó (Please, Lord Jesus, save this man's soul)

LF Rosario (Hot first half of 2018, let's hope he's healthy and gets back to that)

CF Buxton (Please stay healthy and kind of hit)

RF Kepler (Ever gonna break out? Time's-a-tickin')

DH Austin (A slightly worse C.J. Cron that only hits lefties)

 

In other words, not a lot of sure bets in this lineup. Pretty much flipping a coin and hoping it lands heads 6 or 7 times.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

How many times have we seen three teams this bad in the AL Central? The Twins have the lowest win total, (87) by a division champ in the last two decades. It's pretty well established that a team is going to need to be in the 90s to win the division. 

 

80-85 wins puts you "in the conversation," for the play in WC game, and even then it's likely short. If the idea is to feign interest in building a competitive team and be just good enough to put fans in the seats then shooting for that 80-85 win mark is a good goal. 

 

I said an 80-85 win forecast, not that 80-85 would win the division. A team with an 80-85 win forecast might win 90 (they may also lose 90 ), but perhaps more importantly, they may find themselves in the right circumstances midseason to make some moves. Point being, there's value in staying in that forecast range even when you're working toward longer-term goals.

 

There are only 6 teams in all of MLB who project to 90+ wins for 2019 right now, per Fangraphs. That's elite territory. Obviously we all want the Twins to get into that group too, but it's virtually impossible to move from 80 to 90 on paper in one offseason. If they've got a plan for 90 wins in 2021, and can keep us in 80-85 in the meantime, that's not bad -- although I echo the sentiments of others here that such a 2021 plan might not be achievable without some longer-range talent additions that just these 1-2 year MLB moves (plus the draft and deadline deals).

[Nick Nelson]

 

"The team is caught in flux, and that's not really anyone's fault so much as just the way things have played out."

 

Injuries are one thing but acting like we got here just by sheer dumb luck is incredibly naive

Buxton and Sano were derailed in large part by broken and damaged bones on foul balls. I'm not sure how you'd characterize that other than dumb luck. It's hard to argue that the health-based tribulations that struck the likes of Dozier, Santana, Castro, Reed etc last year were clearly preventable. I actually think the statement is a lot less naive than you're implying. 

 

Yes, there have almost certainly been player developmental issues in play at a macro level but those are being addressed forcefully by the front office. Who would you blame specifically right now for the current state of affairs that's actually still here?

[AceWrigley]

In reply to the article picture: Secret photo captures Jonathan Schoop working on the Eddie Gaedel model of the tiniest strike zone in baseball to increase his walks this coming year. You read it here first.

[frightwig]

Yep, it's basically the same plan as last year. Fill in some holes with bargain flyers, and hope that this season Buxton, Sano, and the rest of the youngsters all step up together.

 

The trouble with the "Schoop is just one year removed from his All-Star season" narrative is that his big year was completely out of character with the rest of his career. Even in the minors, he struggled to get on base. This is not a strategic move; it's just gambling against the odds. The Twins picked up a 2B stopgap who probably will hit 20+ HR but is just as likely to post a .300 obp or worse.

 

Steamer projects that his pop and average defense should be good for 2.1 fWAR. Which sounds fine--but the Twins have a lot of guys who project that decent level of value but probably won't get on base at a high rate. When Jack Z ran the Mariners, he liked to collect that kind of player, too. It did not work so well.

 

The Twins top player in the Steamer projections is Max Kepler, at 2.6 fWAR; assuming that he gets 600 PA, Buxton tops the Steamer600 table at 2.8 fWAR, thanks to his anticipated defense. Their top wRC+ projection is Cron at 115.

 

Unless a few guys really take the big leap forward, the Twins may have some decent, respectable hitters through much of the lineup, but no real stars and perhaps a one-dimensional group. It's shaping up to be a rerun of last year, when the lineup was 9th-AL in fWAR, 10th-AL in wRC+.

 

Hopefully they have a few guys who defy expectations. That would be fun. Is it fun to watch the "hopefully some guys bust out" plan put in place, when they supposedly have bunches of money to spend and this new, bold, forward-thinking front office? Ha-ha, negatory!

[Nick Nelson]

 

Current Twins Projected Lineup:

 

C Castro (Defenseive Catcher who missed almost all of 2018)

1B Cron (Actually was pretty good away from the Trop and decent vs RHP)

2B Schoop (Counting on a bounce-back year)

SS Polanco (Hope he takes the next step)

3B Sanó (Please, Lord Jesus, save this man's soul)

LF Rosario (Hot first half of 2018, let's hope he's healthy and gets back to that)

CF Buxton (Please stay healthy and kind of hit)

RF Kepler (Ever gonna break out? Time's-a-tickin')

DH Austin (A slightly worse C.J. Cron that only hits lefties)

 

In other words, not a lot of sure bets in this lineup. Pretty much flipping a coin and hoping it lands heads 6 or 7 times.

I think some people are exaggerating the risk in this lineup. The Twins finished 5th in the AL in scoring even with all that went wrong. That breakdown also doesn't include Jake Cave, who was arguably their second best hitter as a rookie.

[d-mac]

The problem is ownership waited too long to can the Terry Ryan brain trust. After 2012 (1 year grace period to see if 2011 was an aberration), the team and front office should have been blown up.

 

But instead they dinked around for three years and never launched a wholesale rebuild. They acquired some high upside assets, but player development was broken and the minors lacked depth beyond the handful of high potential prospects. Several years were wasted, stuck between never wanting a complete rebuild but not having the talent and depth to compete.

 

The new guys took over stuck between a rock and a hard place when it comes to the on field product. The assets they inherited never quite developed as projected due to said broken development program. However those assets still have upside, so they can't just sell them as they'd be selling low. Conversely, they can't just throw money and minor league assets at contending because today that's just too steep of a hill to climb. Instead, the only real path forward is to continue to thread the needle between rebuilding and contending, treading water until "their guys" are ready to contribute.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think some people are exaggerating the risk in this lineup. The Twins finished 5th in the AL in scoring even with all that went wrong. That breakdown also doesn't include Jake Cave, who was arguably their second best hitter as a rookie.

Actually 6th in the AL in scoring -- and a distant 6th (5th to 6th was the biggest gap between any two spots) -- and only 10th in wRC+ which suggests maybe we were lucky to score that many? 10th in BaseRuns too.

 

Cave may have arguably been second best, but he was only a 108 wRC+ hitter with a .363 BABIP. Steamer projects him at 88 wRC+ for 2019. Don't think his inclusion would move the analysis needle too much.

Edited December 10, 2018 by spycake