Article: Standing Pat as a Strategy

[Tomj14]

 

Sign players for more than one year deals. Bet on success, not failure. But if every year you fill your holes with one year deals, you have the same holes again. Or, I guess we can be happy with constant failure. That's also an option. Plenty of people have laid out their plans on this very site.

I believe standing pat is an excuse not a strategy.

There are/were very few free agents I would have been willing to give multiple year contracts to, but there has been a bunch of players that have been traded in the last year or two that would I would have been more than willing to trade for,

 

Not going for it this year, really is pushing it out until 2021. IMO, and by then the probably won't be able to sign the current guys if they are good and FA's, so they  will be waiting for the next group of prospects. Viscous circle.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I think what looks to be an outlier season in 2017 is what is skewing the perception of where the team was and where the team is. They weren't supposed to be good (and frankly, they really weren't very good) and if their record had been poor as expected, all of those short term deals would have looked in line with being a rebuilding club filling positions with stop gap players and reasonable mid-season flips. 

I don't really buy this. 2018 seems a lot more like the outlier than 2017 to me. The Twins should've expected to be good by the time Buxton and Sano were fully establishing themselves as big-leaguers alongside Dozier, Mauer, etc. 

[lukeduke1980]

It would seem to me that if you have unknowns, like Buxton or growth from Kepler, that it shouldn't dissuade additions it would create depth. If you could sign a Michael Brantley and a Jose Iglesias, I think you could still find at bats for Kepler, Cave, Polanco, etc.  Lack of depth was exposed last year.

[Nick Nelson]

 

At this point, I'm not sure why freeing up money should matter to us as fans?

Not sure I follow. Did I imply that? 

[jtkoupal]

I used to be a fan of waiting for the future to come to you and staying the course. In certain situations, I still believe in that.

 

Not here. Not now. The rest of the division has gotten worse, and Cleveland is going to trade an all-star starter this winter. The mandate should be to win NOW in this division. Just go for it. The division is up for grabs, and if you make the playoffs, think about that extra revenue ))

[markos]

 

I think what looks to be an outlier season in 2017 is what is skewing the perception of where the team was and where the team is. They weren't supposed to be good (and frankly, they really weren't very good) and if their record had been poor as expected, all of those short term deals would have looked in line with being a rebuilding club filling positions with stop gap players and reasonable mid-season flips. 

I think you are seriously discounting 2017. They were maybe a little out over their skis, but they had a positive run differential for the season and were actually a net-negative in one-run games. And they had like 35 fWAR as a team, which was more or less in line with their record. It's not like the Mariners this past season who were WAY, WAY, WAY over their underlying indicators.

 

And the offseason following that season is what bugs me more than anything else about this front office. They had the youngest group of position players in the AL, and many of the young guys appeared to be breaking out. Most other franchises - even small market teams - have aggressively tried to upgrade the top of their roster when on the cusp of competitive window by acquiring long-term, high-talent assets. The Brewers were in basically the exact same position as the Twins, and they went out and acquired Yelich via trade and Cain via FA. The Pirates just traded a bunch of talent for Chris Archer. The Phillies are trying to jump start their contention window, and they just traded for Segura. The Padres signed Hosmer and are seemingly involved in every big trade rumor going right now. Basically every single season since they started winning, the Astros have used their prospect depth to acquire more players for the top of their roster. And going back a few years, the Royals traded Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis.

 

Speaking for myself, I think there is an abundance of evidence that this front office hasn't believed in the Buxton/Sano/Kepler/Rosario/Polanco/Berrios core from day one, and that their long-term strategy (if there is one) is to tread water until THEIR prospects show up.

[mazeville]

The Twins have ZERO idea what to expect from Buxton and Sano.

 

Will they be near-all-star level? Or will they be brutal? The problem is that the difference between one or the other is the difference between contention and non-contention. And if you don't know what you're going to get out of your two most important core pieces, do you spend a ton on free agents and trades? You probably don't. It's a wise decision.

 

Doesn't mean it's that much fun. 

 

Too bad, really. With Cleveland cutting salary and the White Sox not quite ready for contention yet this would be a nice window. 

[TheLeviathan]

 

Not sure I follow. Did I imply that? 

 

I took from your comment that the team will have 30M coming off after this year.  What did you mean by that, if not to imply they'd have money to spend?

 

We've been hearing for half a decade that Mauer's contract was stopping us from being aggressive.  And yet here we are....

[labcrazy]

 

Of all of the things that frustrate me, the concept that we shouldn't pay a lot of money to sign good major league players because they might "block" our young prospects is probably the most frustrating. I've never seen a situation where a young player was actually blocked from playing. As a very extreme example, the Angels traded for Vernon Wells, who was being paid more than $20 million per year, while a young Mike Trout was ripping up the minors. When Trout was ready to dominate the majors, did Vernon Wells block his path? Hell no. The Angels simply sat Wells on the bench until they could trade him.

 

If a young player is ready to make the team, they'll make the team. In the meantime, let's stock the team with the best players we can. That strategy works whether the young guys pan out or not.

This is spot on. I for one am sick and tired of waiting for the young guys to become stars. I have followed this team for more years than I care to admit. I remember David McCarty, Eddie Bane, Rick Sofield and BJ Garbe. All of them were going to be superstars. None even came close. Now we have Buxton and Sano. Neither will ever be superstars but we have to hold up the entire team waiting to see if they can justify their big bonus. Their is no guarantee on Lewis or Kirillof coming up so why cant this team get some players who have proven to be quality major leaguers. Its not money. We have plenty of money and the richest owners in the league. Its an organization philosophy and until it changes this team will always be a second division team.

[Nick Nelson]

 

I took from your comment that the team will have 30M coming off after this year.  What did you mean by that, if not to imply they'd have money to spend?

 

We've been hearing for half a decade that Mauer's contract was stopping us from being aggressive.  And yet here we are....

No, I was just pointing out that they are spending some money on the rotation in 2019, whereas they could have non-tendered or traded Odorizzi/Gibson if they wanted to go extreme with the "stand pat" approach. And I bet we'll see fairly significant $ spent on 2-3 more pitching staff additions, as well as a sizable deal to lock up Berrios.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

 

I dont view standing pat as a strategy. It's the opposite of a strategy.

And it certainly does nothing to move the Twins toward the "sustainable" goal I keep hearing from Falvine.

"Hope" is not a strategy, but that seems to be the sales pitch. 

[bird]

 

I dont view standing pat as a strategy. It's the opposite of a strategy.

And it certainly does nothing to move the Twins toward the "sustainable" goal I keep hearing from Falvine.

 

 

If spring training rolls around and these are the only moves we see, then I'll agree that Falvey was standing pat and non-strategic. Until then, I think those descriptions are inaccurate and a bit unfair. 

 

That said, I wish I saw evidence that Levine's hint about being open to trading for help is in play. Although I really wonder if dangling prospects #4 and beyond, guys in the Gordon Gonsalves Rooker Baddoo tier, are going to net you a frontline starter or a solution at 2B all that much better than Schoop. I don't see the Cron and Schoop decisions as non-strategic. They seem like fairly smart ways to put you in a position to compete in 2019 if your core of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Gibson, Polanco, Rogers, May, and (yeah, I know) Kepler come through in general terms. 

 

I was hoping for another starter in that Gibson range, via trade probably. I doubt that's gong to happen, not because of a non-strategic "stand pat" attitude, but because they trust their own plan (opener/primary using Odor, Mejia, Stewart types?). I was hoping for McCutcheon, willing to settle for Nelson Cruz maybe. If Falvey "stands pat" with what we have right now for a line-up, I'll be mildly unhappy about it unless Kirilloff and Lewis burst onto the scene. And if he passes on all the RP FA opportunities for guys like Soria, Robertson, Familia, Allen where the cost is maybe 3 years at $8-10M per? THEN I'll be on board with the criticism. THEN come February, I'll label Falvey as having sat on his hands and worse.

Edited December 10, 2018 by birdwatcher

[USAFChief]

 

If spring training rolls around and these are the only moves we see, then I'll agree that Falvey was standing pat and non-strategic. Until then, I think those descriptions are inaccurate and a bit unfair. 

 

That said, I wish I saw evidence that Levine's hint about being open to trading for help is in play. Although I really wonder if dangling prospects #4 and beyond, guys in the Gordon Gonsalves Rooker Baddoo tier, are going to net you a frontline starter or a solution at 2B all that much better than Schoop. I don't see the Cron and Schoop decisions as non-strategic. They seem like fairly smart ways to put you in a position to compete in 2019 if your core of Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Berrios, Gibson, Polanco, Rogers, May, and (yeah, I know) Kepler come through in general terms. 

 

I was hoping for another starter in that Gibson range, via trade probably. I doubt that's gong to happen, not because of a non-strategic "stand pat" attitude, but because they trust their own plan (opener/primary using Odor, Mejia, Stewart types?). I was hoping for McCutcheon, willing to settle for Nelson Cruz maybe. If Falvey "stands pat" with what we have right now for a line-up, I'll be mildly unhappy about it unless Kirilloff and Lewis burst onto the scene. And if he passes on all the RP FA opportunities for guys like Soria, Robertson, Familia, Allen where the cost is maybe 3 years at $8-10M per? THEN I'll be on board with the criticism. THEN come February, I'll label Falvey as having sat on his hands and worse.

You should address this with the author of the article, no?

 

I'm simply disputing the idea that "standing pat" is a strategy.

[jmlease1]

I get both the strategy and the frustration.

 

With the division weak and the talent that the twins have, I absolutely understand a desire to be bold and make a play for some of the FA that are/were out there that would fill some of our roster holes very nicely and position us better to compete. But some of that perception of talent is dependent on things like: Sano being healthy and being 2017 and not 2018, or Buxton finding a way to hit enough and stay healthy enough to stick in the lineup, or 2nd half Polanco being the "real" Polanco, or Kepler finally having a breakout season.

 

Which is why I can understand the "wait & see" approach, because if 1/2 those guys fall flat again, we ain't nearly as good as we think we are.

 

If Lewis and Kirilloff had played AA last season and we felt more comfortable they were really breaking down the doors...

 

If Romero was a guy you felt confident could start getting consistently out of the 5th inning...

 

man, I just don't know. I'm worried we have too many hackers who don't get on base. I'm worried we don't have another power arm in the bullpen we can count on.

 

Would I feel better if the Twins made a big push on Machado, even if they came up short? I dunno. I mean, they made a big push on Darvish last season, missed on him, and it might have been the luckiest thing that happened last season. (that 6th year is looking dreadful to have tacked on now).

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

Sign players for more than one year deals. Bet on success, not failure. But if every year you fill your holes with one year deals, you have the same holes again. Or, I guess we can be happy with constant failure. That's also an option. Plenty of people have laid out their plans on this very site.

 

Let's take a moment to look back. What percentage of these signings have been the huge difference maker you insist are essential to building a winner.

 

2018

Eric Hosmer 8/144 – played in a 157 games and produced -.1 WAR.

 

Yu Darvish 6/126/AAV 25 – Obviously added nothing to 2018. Hard to say what he adds to 2019 but it is very unusual for SP to produce at their norm after a year off from injury. Next year he will be 33 ½ so there is a good chance this contract could produce very little for a 6 year period and be detrimental to the Twins extending their core or adding key FAs when they are actually contending.

 

Martinez 5/120 – Great so far.

 

Arrieta – 3/75/AAV 25 – Produced 2 WAR @12.5M/1 WAR. Odorizzi produced 2.6 WAR @ 2.46M/WAR.

 

Arietta would have at best made a negligible difference being added to the rotation.

 

Cain – 5/80M - Been great so far and exactly the kind of guy we should add.

 

Carlos Santana / Wade Davis & Alex Cobb – All serviceable but not much above replacement level.

 

2017

 

The top 3 in AAV were Cespedes / Chapman and Fowler. Cespedes produced 2/5 WAR for 2017-18 combined. Chapman produced 3.5 WAR so he has been good, not great. Fowler was no better than what we already have in 2017 and terrible (below replacement) this year.

 

Jansen was great in 2017 and had .4 WAR in 2018. Melancon produced a total of .7 WAR in 2 tears.

 

Justin Turner at only 13M AAV has been fantastic. Ian Desmond has been equally horrible.

 

2016 – A little more meaningful because we see the impact over 3 years.

 

David Price 7/217/AAV of #31M – He has been decent but not a difference maker. Quite good the 1st year (4.5 WAR). Odorizzi level in terms of WAR the last 2 years. Over $10M/1 WAR and will be 34 at the end of next year. Odds are he had 1 season where he was a difference maker at a cost of $200M. That won’t hurt Boston given they have almost $200M more in revenue but this type of deal is a detriment to the Twins sustaining success.

 

Zack Greinke – Pretty much the same story as price but he has been a little better.  One year where he was a real difference maker. The last 3 years are likely a very poor value and the odds are he is not a difference maker going forward.

 

The next 5 in AAV are Chris Davis / Jason Heyward / Johnny Cueto / Justin Upton Jordan Zimmerman, and Jeff Samardzija.  Davis is below replacement level. Hayward is a 4th outfielder. Johnny Cueto had a great first year and has been a disaster ever since. Zimmerman produced 3.2 WAR over 3 years. Samardzjia was average in 2016, good in 2017 with 3.8 War and had .2 WAR in 2018.

 

That’s a lot of failure. Failure you can’t jettison when they are long-term contracts. The premise that the answer to sustained success is long-term FA deals is not consistent with history. This does not mean we should never do them but to beat the drum constantly that the Twins failure is a product of an unwillingness to sign long-term deals suggests you have not stopped to consider the relative success of this strategy in recent years. This entire group collectively have produced very few seasons where they were difference makers.

Edited December 10, 2018 by Major League Ready

[Vanimal46]

I get both the strategy and the frustration.

 

With the division weak and the talent that the twins have, I absolutely understand a desire to be bold and make a play for some of the FA that are/were out there that would fill some of our roster holes very nicely and position us better to compete. But some of that perception of talent is dependent on things like: Sano being healthy and being 2017 and not 2018, or Buxton finding a way to hit enough and stay healthy enough to stick in the lineup, or 2nd half Polanco being the "real" Polanco, or Kepler finally having a breakout season.

 

Which is why I can understand the "wait & see" approach, because if 1/2 those guys fall flat again, we ain't nearly as good as we think we are.

 

If Lewis and Kirilloff had played AA last season and we felt more comfortable they were really breaking down the doors...

 

If Romero was a guy you felt confident could start getting consistently out of the 5th inning...

 

man, I just don't know. I'm worried we have too many hackers who don't get on base. I'm worried we don't have another power arm in the bullpen we can count on.

 

Would I feel better if the Twins made a big push on Machado, even if they came up short? I dunno. I mean, they made a big push on Darvish last season, missed on him, and it might have been the luckiest thing that happened last season. (that 6th year is looking dreadful to have tacked on now).

If they sign or acquire new players via trade, then the Twins have new players to add to the core moving forward if the others fail.

 

I have a feeling we're going to look back on the Button/Sano era and remember one thing "Wait and see".

[mikelink45]

This is not an answer to the posting asking for a three year plan from one of us.  Give me the money and resources of Lavine and Falvey and I will come up with a plan.  All I can say is waiting for Buxton and Sano year after year after year is getting quite old.  I am waiting for Lavine and Falvey and every year I am told they have a plan.  What is their plan?  Here are the players that they have signed or traded for in 2017 and 2018, there are 54 and I skipped a few from 2017.  So this is more than a 40 man roster - how much have these moves pushed us forward?  What is the strategy of the FO?  

 

Lynn, Reed, Castro, Rodney, Morrison, Schoop, Torreyes, Adrianza, Cron, Austin, Cave, Odorizzi, Pineda, Haley, Paulsen, Field, Rucinski,Hague, Schuck, Tepesch, Vogelsong, Greenwood, Miller, Tracy, Giminez, Belisle, Breslow, Kinley, Duke, Pacheco, Buss, Curtis, Magill, Wilkins, Heisey, Sanchez, Rodriguez, Carter, Villalobos, Motter, Rupp, LaMarre, Raley, Smeltzer, Forsythe, Duran, Alcala, Celestino, Maciel, Trinidad, Costello, DeJong, Rijo, Drake,Adams, 

[sdangus]

I think reality setting in may be the emphasis behind these moves. The Twins are in a precarious position with what they planned to be the core of the team at this time having for the most part under performed and disappointed, but still probably exhibiting enough talent and potential to be worth waiting for. Unfortunately, I think they believe the coaching staff that had been in place, as well as those in the developmental levels below have failed to bring the best out of these players.

So, with little choice but to see if new coaching can bring the talent out of these players, it makes little sense to make long term commitments to free agents that might not be enough to push them over the top.

Their preferred choice of using trades to suppliment the existing team probably has been unfruitful as well, given that most of the Twins prospect talent is at lower levels and not going to be at peak demand at this point.

Some of the trades I see happening don't make a lot of sense. Carlos Santana was supposed to be a Twins target since Philly was motivated to move him to free up a spot for Hoskins. Given that he was already being overpayed and the expensive end of his contract yet to come, it made sense that Philly would need to eat a lot of money and/or give up prospect capital to get him off their books. But in the end they turned Santana into Segura and Pazos, and only had to chip in Crawford. Any wonder the Twins weren't in on that?

I saw a suggestion here that the Twins try to get Santana from Seattle by trading Cave and a couple prospects. Why? Santana is being over paid. He has negative trade value. Why would the Twins do that?

I think the FO may be correct to just look for bargain pieces for this year, try to put a team on the field that can be competitive if the players perform, and see how things shake out.

There are a lot of pitching pieces that need to be evaluated before they will really know where they are. Would it make sense to start trading any of those pieces away before they had a better idea what they really have? Seems like that would be a bigger gamble than just letting things develop and shake out.

[Doomtints]

2017 was a massive down year for the AL. The 2017 Twins and the 2018 Twins were not very different. The difference in where the teams finished was the market conditions.

[DocBauer]

Really like a lot of posts here, but can't "like" them for some reason. (Is there a reason some articles lack a "like" button or is it just my equipment?)

 

I know I sometimes come off as an optomist, but I am frustrated as anyone with the length of re-build and how disappointing 2018 was. But the Twins are in a difficult "catch 22" situation if you stand back and look objectively.

 

What they saw in 2017, and didn't see in 2018, leaves them truly unsure what they have. I like ideas for roster depth and flexibility. But how many guys do you bring in for depth and versatility on a finite roster? You simply can't just dump Buxton, or Sano, and go sign someone to replace them for the next 3 years.

 

I agree this is a sort of "audition" year. There simply couldn't be the same number of injuries and weird happens in 2019 as there was in 2018. Top prospects will get closer, and even by mid season, we may have a better idea of the construction and future of the team.

 

All that being said, there is also ample opportunity to still add to this team for 2019 and build on the potential you are mostly "standing pat" for. The bullpen is a prime example. There is no reason a couple arms couldn't be added on 2-3yr deals. They help, and they block NO-ONE.

[adorduan]

What I'm interested to see is if we get to the end of July and Sano and/or Buxton are failing/have failed, what this front office does then. 

[Riverbrian]

Going for it and standing pat each come in degrees.

 

If you don’t like Schoop you can call it standing pat or going backwards if you’d like. If you like Schoop it has a degree of going for it so it’s in the eye of the beholder.

 

Personally... I’m not suggesting specific names. I have my personal preferences but the front office has the analytics department and I’m going to trust them and assume they are more informed while also willing to understand mistakes will happen because it isn’t an exact science.

 

I wasn’t expecting a Machado or Harper like going for it so filling holes with Schoop types are ok with me to a degree providing they fill all the holes with players who can help us win everyday if needed.

 

If Ryan LaMarre types and Rule 5’s are on the roster and gathering dust. I will object.

 

Apart from that my expectation is simple. Fill the every hole with players that you expect to deliver more often than not. If the data projects that players like Michael Reed can do that. I’m good but I’ll be able to tell via real time context as it happens and the utilization of each roster spot.

 

You can still support this current core without a long term free agent signing. Standing pat to me means Ryan LaMarre.

[bird]

 

You should address this with the author of the article, no?

 

I'm simply disputing the idea that "standing pat" is a strategy.

 

Ah. My mistake, Chief. Concur then.

 

Nick?

[Mike Sixel]

 

This is a good point. Also, if the core players do take their step forward in 2019, there's no reason that this team can't compete. Buxton. Sano. Kepler. Rosario. Berrios. Polanco. These guys are all very talented. I think only Rosario didn't make a Top 100 list as a prospect. Health. Something clicking... Luck. There's no reason to think that they can''t, or at least maybe 4-5 of them instead of just two like last year. Schoop is young and there's no reason to think he cant return to close to 2017 form.

 

The top four of the starting rotation is solid. There are a lot of options for the 5th starter job and a couple of them do have some upside. They have depth. (I think they will grab a starter though) And then there's the bullpen. Like I've written, I think there are four givens, and they can add a couple of veterans. Reed could return to 'normal.' 

 

So yeah... thats obviously an optimistic view. It doesn't make for an exciting offseason (though again, as many as three pitchers signed yet could make it a little more interesting), but it's also not completely out of the realm of possiblity.

 

And as many others have said, if Buxton and Sano don't become something, then 2019 was lost no matter who they signed. 

 

If you are optimistic, you add good players to the roster. You don't stand pat. If you stand pat, and don't  add some really good players, it won't matter how good Buxton and Sano are, because there won't be enough other great players on the roster. This middle path is the worst path. IMO

[Wizard11]

This is not an answer to the posting asking for a three year plan from one of us.  Give me the money and resources of Lavine and Falvey and I will come up with a plan.  All I can say is waiting for Buxton and Sano year after year after year is getting quite old.  I am waiting for Lavine and Falvey and every year I am told they have a plan.  What is their plan?  Here are the players that they have signed or traded for in 2017 and 2018, there are 54 and I skipped a few from 2017.  So this is more than a 40 man roster - how much have these moves pushed us forward?  What is the strategy of the FO?  

 

Lynn, Reed, Castro, Rodney, Morrison, Schoop, Torreyes, Adrianza, Cron, Austin, Cave, Odorizzi, Pineda, Haley, Paulsen, Field, Rucinski,Hague, Schuck, Tepesch, Vogelsong, Greenwood, Miller, Tracy, Giminez, Belisle, Breslow, Kinley, Duke, Pacheco, Buss, Curtis, Magill, Wilkins, Heisey, Sanchez, Rodriguez, Carter, Villalobos, Motter, Rupp, LaMarre, Raley, Smeltzer, Forsythe, Duran, Alcala, Celestino, Maciel, Trinidad, Costello, DeJong, Rijo, Drake,Adams,

 

My request was primarily for actionable ideas. To paraphrase you, “this website is littered with complaining posts, but a bit short on actionable ideas”. I too am frustrated and not trying to defend the status quo as you have implied in a few posts. I get that you are wondering what the FO’s strategy is. My question was what specifically should it be?

[Seth Stohs]

 

If you are optimistic, you add good players to the roster. You don't stand pat. If you stand pat, and don't  add some really good players, it won't matter how good Buxton and Sano are, because there won't be enough other great players on the roster. This middle path is the worst path. IMO

 

I mean, they have added two good players so far and the Winter Meetings just started... no realist to be non-optimistic at this point. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

No, I was just pointing out that they are spending some money on the rotation in 2019, whereas they could have non-tendered or traded Odorizzi/Gibson if they wanted to go extreme with the "stand pat" approach. And I bet we'll see fairly significant $ spent on 2-3 more pitching staff additions, as well as a sizable deal to lock up Berrios.  

 

Trading Gibson isn't standing pat, it is picking a direction. If they aren't serious about contending this year, why keep Gibson and not get some great minor league talent for him? Or, they can keep him, and get around the 40th pick next year (a pick which has an almost 5% chance of mattering, give or take).

[Mike Sixel]

 

I mean, they have added two good players so far and the Winter Meetings just started... no realist to be non-optimistic at this point. 

 

both on 1 year deals, meaning you have those same holes again next year. They aren't betting on success. IMO. Unless we think Gordon is going to be above average in 2020, and Rooker too......which I'm told over and over on this site that we shouldn't expect that from rookies.

[Thrylos]

I think that they will be fine staying pat as far as position players go.

 

They need pitchers badly, and they will need them even worse next off-season when Gibson, Odorizzi, and Pinesa are all free agents.

[RatherBeGolfing]

"The team is caught in flux, and that's not really anyone's fault so much as just the way things have played out."

 

Injuries are one thing but acting like we got here just by sheer dumb luck is incredibly naive