Wow carter Stewart has fallen quite a bit after the early 1st round pick last year

 

Seems like a lot of those guys that fall end up still being decent ml players. Wouldn't mind burning a pick on him if he's there in the 2nd. 

Seems like a lot of those guys that fall end up still being decent ml players. Wouldn't mind burning a pick on him if he's there in the 2nd.

My thoughts exactly. I never understand how much these rankings can change so much after the spring season. MLB players have lousy seasons. That doesn’t change their core abilities.

 

An example of this is Trea Turner. A year out from the draft he was in the conversation to go #1. He wound up falling to 13 to the Padres while the Twins took Nick Gordon at #5. Would have been good to use the “let’s take the guy billed as #1” strategy in 2014!

 

Edit to add: I know no one likes the draft second-guessing. However, I bring it up in the context of the conversation as a potential lesson that could be learned for future drafts. If the Twins could get someone of Turner’s caliber from THIS YEAR’s #13 pick, including targeting anyone who’s stock has just recently fallen, that would be great.

Edited May 5, 20197 yr by AlwaysinModeration

 

My thoughts exactly. I never understand how much these rankings can change so much after the spring season. MLB players have lousy seasons. That doesn’t change their core abilities.

An example of this is Trea Turner. A year out from the draft he was in the conversation to go #1. He wound up falling to 13 to the Padres while the Twins took Nick Gordon at #5. Would have been good to use the “let’s take the guy billed as #1” strategy in 2014!

Edit to add: I know no one likes the draft second-guessing. However, I bring it up in the context of the conversation as a potential lesson that could be learned for future drafts. If the Twins could get someone of Turner’s caliber from THIS YEAR’s #13 pick, including targeting anyone who’s stock has just recently fallen, that would be great.

This cuts both ways. Going into 2017, guys like Jeren Kendell and Alex Fraedo were in contention to be the #1 pick.

 

My thoughts exactly. I never understand how much these rankings can change so much after the spring season. MLB players have lousy seasons. That doesn’t change their core abilities.

An example of this is Trea Turner. A year out from the draft he was in the conversation to go #1. He wound up falling to 13 to the Padres while the Twins took Nick Gordon at #5. Would have been good to use the “let’s take the guy billed as #1” strategy in 2014!

Edit to add: I know no one likes the draft second-guessing. However, I bring it up in the context of the conversation as a potential lesson that could be learned for future drafts. If the Twins could get someone of Turner’s caliber from THIS YEAR’s #13 pick, including targeting anyone who’s stock has just recently fallen, that would be great.

 

Everyone is a great drafter with the benefit of hindsight.

My thoughts exactly. I never understand how much these rankings can change so much after the spring season. MLB players have lousy seasons. That doesn’t change their core abilities.

 

An example of this is Trea Turner. A year out from the draft he was in the conversation to go #1. He wound up falling to 13 to the Padres while the Twins took Nick Gordon at #5. Would have been good to use the “let’s take the guy billed as #1” strategy in 2014!

 

Edit to add: I know no one likes the draft second-guessing. However, I bring it up in the context of the conversation as a potential lesson that could be learned for future drafts. If the Twins could get someone of Turner’s caliber from THIS YEAR’s #13 pick, including targeting anyone who’s stock has just recently fallen, that would be great.

High school guys don't grow. Any doubts that don't look better are confirmed. They make a change in approach for some reason. They face different levels of competition. They put on bad weight. Lots of things change about how you view someone with another several months of data.

 

That said, some people wanted Turner....

mlbpipeline has a mock draft!

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-beginning-to-take-shape?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

13. Twins: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (Seattle)

The Twins have taken hitters with their last three first picks, two of them of the high school variety. Carroll has one of most advanced bats among the high school set with plus speed to go along with it.

 

I'm ok with that pick but I'd think some other players are more likely.

 

mlbpipeline has a mock draft!

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mock-draft-beginning-to-take-shape?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

13. Twins: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (Seattle)

The Twins have taken hitters with their last three first picks, two of them of the high school variety. Carroll has one of most advanced bats among the high school set with plus speed to go along with it.

 

I'm ok with that pick but I'd think some other players are more likely.

Corbin is unlikely to ever hit for much power but he has high end hit + end speed/field + lots of athleticism. I'd be very happy with him at 13, but doubt he'll fall to that point. Also would love for Zack Thompson to fall to 13. Fangraphs scouts him as having THREE 60 grade pitches (fastball, curveball and change). That's pretty rare for a college player, even if his command/control may need further tuning. Also would be happy with Matthew Allen (best HS pitcher) or Brett Baty if they think he is likely to stick at 3B.

Josh Jung, if the Twins think he can stick at third, would be a good pick, I think.

Carroll has one of the sweetest swings in the draft and one of the best contact bats as well as an advanced approach at the plate. His power is average right now but has the ability to grow to above average down the road. Defensively, he's athletic with a plus arm and runs good routes. His comp is Andrew Benintendi

I like Bob’s review. I’d be happy with him as their pick.

It’s almost as if there are better thing to focus on than the draft.

Does anyone know who Keith Law is projecting the Twins to select in the first round of the draft (he has a new mock draft out today)?

 

Does anyone know who Keith Law is projecting the Twins to select in the first round of the draft (he has a new mock draft out today)?

Bryson Stott of UNLV.

 

Hey Zenser,

 

Thank you for letting me know who Law thinks the Twins will select. I am betting on Langeliers (catcher) if he is still available when the Twins make their selection.

I did a full first day mock that went up yesterday: https://videobaseballscout.com/2019/05/27/mlb-mock-draft-version-8-9-full-first-day/

Matt Wallner could be the Twins second or third pick.

 

Matt Wallner could be the Twins second or third pick.

 

I considered him for their third pick, but went with a Wes Johnson guy in Campbell.

You really think they'll go pitching in round 1? I'll be pleasantly surprised.

 

You really think they'll go pitching in round 1? I'll be pleasantly surprised.

 

If Manoah fell to them, quite likely. He's #2 on my personal college pitching list, and I've heard the Twins mentioned often at his games, much more often than any of the other guys behind Lodolo. I don't know that he'll make it there, and at that point, I'd imagine they look strong at one of the college bats.

Fangraphs is starting a week of coverage today with Mock 3.0.

 

They have the Twins going 3B, SS, C with their first three picks. Not sure how this team ever develops great pitching if it doesn't draft pitching.

Fangraphs is starting a week of coverage today with Mock 3.0.

 

They have the Twins going 3B, SS, C with their first three picks. Not sure how this team ever develops great pitching if it doesn't draft pitching.

But pitching isn’t a strong class this year.

Best player available. And I’m guessing they’ll pay under slot for someone Twins Daily identified to be in their 20-30 range, and over slot for the 43rd and, what 57th pick.

 

I’ve liked the FO’s drafts and expect three good prospects.

 

But pitching isn’t a strong class this year.
Best player available. And I’m guessing they’ll pay under slot for someone Twins Daily identified to be in their 20-30 range, and over slot for the 43rd and, what 57th pick.

I’ve liked the FO’s drafts and expect three good prospects.

 

You still need pitching.........I'll ask again, where do you expect them to get 15-20 pitchers in the majors every year, if they don't draft it in the first 3 picks most years? Because they aren't signing elite FAs, and they aren't trading for guys under long term contractural control. You can only get lucky/good with a Perez once every very once in a while.

 

Fangraphs is starting a week of coverage today with Mock 3.0.

 

They have the Twins going 3B, SS, C with their first three picks. Not sure how this team ever develops great pitching if it doesn't draft pitching.

They have drafted pitching... The new FO seems more intent on taking a hitter with that 1st pick than a pitcher, but I don't think (or at least I really hope not) that this is a trend. Personally, I hope they go after HS pitching. The college class in this draft is pretty weak and they have plenty of depth in the high minors as it is. Go out and find the next Enlow/Blazovich.

 

 

 

But pitching isn’t a strong class this year.
Best player available. And I’m guessing they’ll pay under slot for someone Twins Daily identified to be in their 20-30 range, and over slot for the 43rd and, what 57th pick.

I’ve liked the FO’s drafts and expect three good prospects.

 

Meant to add....I too like most of what they've done in the draft.

 

You still need pitching.........I'll ask again, where do you expect them to get 15-20 pitchers in the majors every year, if they don't draft it in the first 3 picks most years? Because they aren't signing elite FAs, and they aren't trading for guys under long term contractural control. You can only get lucky/good with a Perez once every very once in a while.

 

Fun fact: Indians starters Kluber, Clevinger, and Bieber were all drafted in the 4th round.

 

Overdrafting pitchers doesn't solve anything. The key is to find guys with upside and have the right personnel in place to develop them. Whether or not that's in the first couple rounds depends on who is available. Overdrafting pitchers is just a quick way to gut a minor league system.

 

Between trades (Odorizzi), free agency (Pineda, Perez), international free agents, the draft (not just round 1) . . . there are various ways to add pitchers. 

 

Fun fact: Indians starters Kluber, Clevinger, and Bieber were all drafted in the 4th round.

 

Overdrafting pitchers doesn't solve anything. The key is to find guys with upside and have the right personnel in place to develop them. Whether or not that's in the first couple rounds depends on who is available. Overdrafting pitchers is just a quick way to gut a minor league system.

 

Between trades (Odorizzi), free agency (Pineda, Perez), international free agents, the draft (not just round 1) . . . there are various ways to add pitchers. 

 

If the Indians thought those guys would be that good, they would have taken them in round 1........of course players are found later in the draft, over 1000 players are drafted every year.......but the best talent, those most likely to succeed, are taken early. The odds drop drastically after round 1. 

 

Of course there are other ways to get pitchers, but the draft is the sustainable way to do so......IFA is just a different kind of draft......

 

I'm not suggesting not taking good players, I'm suggesting that if you don't take pitchers early as a philosophy, you need to be willing to trade for them and sign them. If you think something like Perez is not a rare event, I'm not sure if we'll agree.....

 

If the Indians thought those guys would be that good, they would have taken them in round 1........of course players are found later in the draft, over 1000 players are drafted every year.......but the best talent, those most likely to succeed, are taken early. The odds drop drastically after round 1. 

 

Of course there are other ways to get pitchers, but the draft is the sustainable way to do so......IFA is just a different kind of draft......

 

I'm not suggesting not taking good players, I'm suggesting that if you don't take pitchers early as a philosophy, you need to be willing to trade for them and sign them. If you think something like Perez is not a rare event, I'm not sure if we'll agree.....

They did trade for good pitching prospects Duran, Alcala, and Smeltzer.  Duran and Alcala are top 20 prospects in the system and Smeltzer probably should have been. We will finally see this year how the new FO approaches a clear buying deadline. Maybe Perez isn't so much a rare event as it is good talent evaluation and coaching, he is certainly not our only pitcher that is pitching above their recent history.

 

What are the odds that Fangraphs is right in all 3 or any of the Twins picks? Mock drafts usually fall apart early. I like the best player available strategy especially early.

My expectation is that if one of the first teir of college pitchers is sitting there at 13, they'll take him. If there isn't, that probably means one of the college bats (Jung?) is there and that's who they'll take. They'll take two arms in the first four overall picks would be my guess.

 

They did trade for good pitching prospects Duran, Alcala, and Smeltzer.  Duran and Alcala are top 20 prospects in the system and Smeltzer probably should have been. We will finally see this year how the new FO approaches a clear buying deadline. Maybe Perez isn't so much a rare event as it is good talent evaluation and coaching, he is certainly not our only pitcher that is pitching above their recent history.

 

What are the odds that Fangraphs is right in all 3 or any of the Twins picks? Mock drafts usually fall apart early. I like the best player available strategy especially early.

 

Of course I don't expect FG to be right.....that's not really the point of the posts, though.

 

If their pitching coach can do this again and again, he's the best pitching coach ever. 

Drafting of pitcher is such a crapshoot.  Finding consistent front line pitching is difficult.  In drafting 13-42. teams are not going to get  Verlander Price, Cole, Scherzer, Strassburg, or Kershaw . They did not fall that far.  Even then top 13 doesn't mean success. Hochevar off the top of my head comes to mind

 

Past drafts pitchers drafted between 13 and 42

2011. 15. pitchers  Jose Fernandez,  Sonny Gray.  Fulmer if you want to stretch front line pitching. 12 others sis not develop into top of rotation pitchers

2010  14 pitchers. Thor and Sale

2009 13 pitchers.  No way could you call Gibson a consistent front line starter

2008 15 pitcher

2007 13 pitchers Porcello did win a Cy Young.

2006 14 pitchers

 

Drafted outside of the top 42 you find as recent top of the rotation pitchers, DeGrom, Kluber,  Arrietta, Keuchel

 

Worth looking at is a Ruesse rant on Twins drafting of pitchers. It is safe to assume he was not a fan of Deron Johnson. http://www.startribune.com/taking-college-pitchers-with-high-draft-choices-failed-as-twins-strategy/475175653/

 

Want to spend money for information? It might be good information, might not. I did not spend the money. If somebody does, please discuss.  https://d1baseball.com/prospects/d1-analytics-top-2019-draft-eligible-pitchers/

Edited May 29, 20197 yr by old nurse

 

Fangraphs is starting a week of coverage today with Mock 3.0.

 

They have the Twins going 3B, SS, C with their first three picks. Not sure how this team ever develops great pitching if it doesn't draft pitching.

 

 

This season's rotation, which has been pretty good, sports five pitchers who were first round picks. The first injury call-up, Kohl Stewart, was one as well as you know.

 

Remember, Mike, there were a few people with this same concern who thought Gausman made more sense than Buxton. Weren't you one of them? I think we like the Buxton pick in retrospect.

 

That said, I'd love it if Ben's mock draft was accurate and Manoah was our selection and turned out to be "great pitching". When teams selected Pineda, Perez, Odorizzi, and Gausman, they all thought they selected "great pitching". I think those guys should represent your expectation with the 13th pick, 4th pitcher taken, in a weak pitcher's draft. 

 

The college bats in this particular draft class are getting pretty good reviews by the scouts, so either way, let's hope our scouts continue to be as right as they look to be with Larnach, Lewis, Kiriloff, Berrios, and Gibson.

 

Is Perez a one-off success story? I don't think so, not when you consider Odorizzi, Pineda, and some of the bargain bin pitchers they've picked up, or the improvement (so far) from guys like Duffey.

 

I don't mind them going more sure-fire with a position player in the first round given that, but if a pitcher they really like, Manoah for example, falls in their lap as Mr. Chase belives might happen? Cool.

Edited May 29, 20197 yr by birdwatcher