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2019 draft


gunnarthor

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Just a little information. Twins have the 13th and 40th pick in the first round.  

 

mlbpipeline just put up their top 50 for the draft here. And they also have a nice little write-up on the class.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/2019-draft-top-50-prospects-list-revealed/c-301460626

 

"The crop of talent for the 2019 Draft appears to be one of the most imbalanced in recent memory. Quality position prospects abound all over the diamond, while question marks surround the best pitchers available. "If you're in the hunt for pitching up top, this might not be the best year for it, especially with the college arms," an American League scouting director said. "It's definitely a position-player Draft from what I've seen over the summer. It's better than what it's been the last couple of years. It's almost a little scary how good the hitters are compared to the pitchers.""

 

Both the White Sox and Tigers are likely to get a pretty good college hitter in the top 5.

 

Obviously, we have a full season of HS and college baseball which will move the list around quite a bit but there are some pretty intriguing players that could slip to the Twins. The best 3B prospect is Josh Jung but he's unlikely to fall to 13, unless the Twins finagle some kind of major $$$ promise by punting the 40th pick or something. 3B prospect Rece Hinds has big power but concerns about too many strike outs. If he has a big year, he could easily be the Twins pick. Zach Thompson is a SP from Kentucky and the Twins have drafted/scouted that school a lot.

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It seems to me that every year you have pitchers at the college levels come out of nowhere. I think it's too soon to be concerned about pitching in that draft.

 

They aren't picking high enough to play the $$$ games with their first rounder, and honestly, the high minors have plenty of intersting prospects at the moment... so do the low minors for that matter. I'd probably play the long game. If I had to ask for a strategy, it would probably be to load up on as many high schoolers as they can while taking some cheap college players to make the dollars work. 

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Does anyone know why the MLB doesn't allow teams to trade draft picks except the conditional ones?

Teams were worried that it would give more power to the agents and the players and that poor teams would trade their top picks to the Yankees for money. This was more a problem before the draft set a draft pool but it's still a consideration. Remember, Carl Pohlad was strongly against increasing the bonuses for draft picks and made the Twins pick cheaply. The Twins could've traded the #20 pck they spent on Ben Revere and grabbed him in the second round and the Yankees could've used the #20 pick to get another high bonus guy. 

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I am wondering if they would make a deal with Busch or Waldner or someone slated to go in the 20's and save money for more high schoolers down the line.  Has sort of been their MO in recent drafts.  I would still like to see them focus on young arms early in the draft as they have seemed to find hitters with decent upside later in the draft and right now we need better pitching in our system.

 

It seems like after the first few guys there isn't a huge drop off in talent from 13 to 30.  Seems like a decent scenario to try and save some money for players that fall unless someone they really like falls to them.

 

If I had to guess I would say they will grab someone with a 55 to 60 hit tool or pitcher with a 60 curve.  Could be college or high school but that is the type they seem to grab early.

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Teams were worried that it would give more power to the agents and the players and that poor teams would trade their top picks to the Yankees for money. This was more a problem before the draft set a draft pool but it's still a consideration. Remember, Carl Pohlad was strongly against increasing the bonuses for draft picks and made the Twins pick cheaply. The Twins could've traded the #20 pck they spent on Ben Revere and grabbed him in the second round and the Yankees could've used the #20 pick to get another high bonus guy. 

 

You wonder why they don't start using a system similar to the NHL where players are drafted once they turn 18 and then are under team control for a number of years. I feel like it would take a lot of power away from the players and agents.

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You wonder why they don't start using a system similar to the NHL where players are drafted once they turn 18 and then are under team control for a number of years. I feel like it would take a lot of power away from the players and agents.

These things are (at least in part) subject to the collective bargaining agreement, and so you answered your own question with that last observation.

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Remember Mark Davidson, the 4th OF on the Twins 87 championship team? His son is a junior at Clemson and a 3rd team All American at SS. A switch hitter, he is 6' 3 " 185 lbs. He is among the top 5 SS in the 2019 draft. Logan's sister played tennis at Stanford. Mark was from my hometown. I told Mark that his athletic children must have gotten their mother's genes.

 

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  • 2 months later...

So, reading through these materials again, am eager to hear any updates as the spring season gets underway. I’d like to hope that Rutschman or Vaughan have lousy spring seasons and fall down lists (especially Rutschman, seems like than guy does it all).

 

Otherwise Caleb Stewart looks like a potential buy-low (best curve, mid-90s, failed to sign last year) or maybe Misner, given he missed the end of last year including summer with a broken foot.

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Lot's of baseball before the draft, so the lists will change a lot.  I also noted there seems to be a lot of players in the same range from around where the Twins first pick falls to the thirties.  Twins should get some decent players and the new FO seems to be doing very good things in this area.  

I agree with the posters who want high school players, higher gain/risk factors.  Twins seem to have talent in the pipeline for around 5 years and I would like to see if they can get over the top by drafting some higher talent high school players, though the college route last year worked out well.

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I am concerned about how this draft stacks up for the Twins.  Arizona has like 7 or 8 picks in the first 100 picks so anybody who falls they can pick them up and find the money to sign them. So even if the Twins did find a way to save some money with their first round pick it will be hard to compete for talent with Arizona likely having more money to make deals.

 

For this years draft I would like to see the Twins go with a high school arm with frontline starter potential at pick 13 and a high school bat with the later pick.  I think most of the good arms will be off the board by the time they get their second pick however other teams might have a similar strategy and leave a 55 to 60 hitter on the board for us so it might be hard to choose a pitcher in our spot.  

 

Lot's of time left for players to rise and fall but we should be able to get a good player at 13 and hopefully grab some fallen players with Supplemental and second round picks.

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Saw Witt at HR Derby. Seems like he might be high on himself. Why is Carroll so good?

I've seen Witt the last three years down in WWBA in Jupiter, he's continually improved most of his facets.  He has above average power but his contact skills are just average and his approach at the plate is suspect at times.  His arm is strong, not Rece Hinds strong but it's a weapon.  Defensively he needs alot of work at SS and refinement but gets good marks for his soft hands and nice tags.  I'm not completely sold on him staying at SS but he's gonna stick in the infield at 2B or 3B.

 

Carroll has one of the sweetest swings in the draft and one of the best contact bats as well as an advanced approach at the plate.  His power is average right now but has the ability to grow to above average down the road.  Defensively, he's athletic with a plus arm and runs good routes.  His comp is Andrew Benintendi

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Prospect gurus Eric and Kiley of Fangraphs have some scouting notes on a couple of college arms who will be moving into the 20's on their draft board and could be firmly range for the Twins 1st round pick if they keep it up throughout the season.

 

Check it out here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/our-week-1-college-scouting-notes/

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  • 2 weeks later...

Saw Jerron Ealy and Maurice Hampton at Battle of the Beach. 

 

What a interesting and similar pair. Both have scholarships at Division I schools to play both ways at the same position in both sports. Both could never swing a bat again in 40 days and both could never step onto a college campus. If your taking either of these players on Day 1, they are going to be slow movers. I personally like Ealy better. 

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  • 1 month later...

mlbpipeline updated their draft list. Twins draft 13, 39, 54 and 90. 

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-s-2019-top-100-draft-prospects?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

The draft is good for position players but a bit ... blah on arms.

 

""This is the worst group of college arms I've seen in the first round in my 30 years of scouting," a NL front-office executive said. "It's so weak.""

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So that new MLB pipeline list looks pretty good for the Twins picking at 13:

 

Corbin Carroll #14

Josh Jung #16

Kameron Misner #19

 

In terms of the #39 and #54 picks:

 

Rece Hinds #35

Kendall Williams #53

Carter Stewart #59

Wow carter Stewart has fallen quite a bit after the early 1st round pick last year

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