Article: Big Splash Coming in Twins Territory

[Ted Schwerzler]

With the offseason upon us, the Hot Stove will eventually heat up and free agents will begin to select their teams for the 2019 Major League Baseball season and beyond. The Minnesota Twins have some of the most available money across both leagues, and they also have some relatively glaring holes. Needs up the middle, on the corners, and in the bullpen are of the utmost importance. Plugging just anyone into the mix isn’t logical and there’s an offensive profile that is desperately needed.Since Joe Mauer has decided to hang up his cleats and the organization could choose to move on from Robbie Grossman, the starting lineup is lacking some on-base prowess. On top of that reality, a feared slugger to anchor the middle of the order is essential for Rocco Baldelli’s group. Checking off both of those boxes in the form of one player would be the most optimal way to go about it, and that leads me to believe in the following necessity: A successful offseason for the organization almost must include the acquisition of Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Santana, or Daniel Murphy.

 

The names above are not all created equal, and there’re warts that come with each of them. However, given the mix of power and on-base skills, along with the plausible acquisition costs, each profile seems like too good of a match to pass up. Suggesting that any of the four-some are true superstars may be a stretch, but in terms of incoming talent to a Minnesota squad, they all present the opportunity to grab both an impact name and impact ability.

 

Diving into them individually, here’s how they break down and rank for me:

 

Josh Donaldson

 

At 33 Donaldson is arguably the most complete mix of perfection in this group. He’d push Miguel Sano over to first base, but the infield would be better because of it. Obviously, there’s significant injury concern here, as he hasn’t played more than 115 games either of the past two seasons. If the bill of health is good though, he was a model of consistency from 2013-2016. A career .367 OBP guy with a .507 SLG, Donaldson would be a surefire superstar in the heart of the Twins lineup. He’s mashed at Target Field (albeit off Twins pitching) and would certainly elevate the overall ability of the starting nine. A high AAV on a one-year deal, or something a bit more conservative on a three-year deal needs to be something Minnesota jumps at.

 

Nelson Cruz

 

Despite being the elder statesmen of this group, Cruz is appealing as he’s aged incredibly well. He’s going to be 38 this upcoming season, and even in his “down year” last season, an .850 OPS was still posted. The Twins would need to be certain that it’s not the beginning of the end, but a guy who posted a .925 OPS with 126 HR’s from 2015-2017 is someone to take a serious look at. With a career .342 OBP, Cruz has surpassed that mark each of the past four years, and he’s still a perennial All-Star. This is not a guy who can do anything but DH for you, but that’s a need for Minnesota and his presence should be welcomed on a one or two-year pact.

 

Carlos Santana

 

If it’s not Donaldson to shore up some of the infield situation then Santana makes an incredible amount of sense. The only caveat here is that he’s a trade target, but the choice can be made to include lesser prospects and pay more, or increase the return and have the Phillies kick in. Philadelphia is a motivated seller in this case, and the Falvey connection is certainly there. The catcher-turned-first-basemen still posted a .352 OBP during his first sub-.800 OPS season since 2015 last year. He provides a strong bat from both sides of the plate (being even better as a lefty) and plays average defense as well. Taking on the finals two years of his current deal (and the 2021 option) would be a nice fit for Minnesota.

 

Daniel Murphy

 

Of this group it’s Murphy who really profiles the most difficult to fit. He’s a second basemen by trade but is terrible or worse in the field. He’s never played much more than a fill-in role at first but would likely be much better suited there. In 2019 Murphy will be 34 and looking for what should be his last payday. You can expect him to provide a high .700 OPS, but the .900-plus marks in two full seasons with Washington may be wishful thinking. Murphy is a high average, high on-base guy, with more gap power than anything. He’ll launch about 20 long balls a year, but it’s the doubles that will really come in bunches. Coming off injury last season he got into just 91 games, and that could help to suppress his price some in this market. I’d prefer not to see him play up the middle with Jorge Polanco, but inking him to a three-year deal isn’t a bad idea either.

 

When the dust settles on this offseason, I think it’s a pretty fair expectation to assume the Twins will have at least two new infielders (2B/SS and 1B/3B), as well as at least one new reliever. Adding in a top-three starter would be a bonus, and a designated hitter could be addressed as well. Given what’s out there however, none of the necessary additions can simply be band-aids. Whether or not the front-office goes for it in 2019 or beginning in 2020 doesn’t much matter. This club needs an impact bat in the worst way and skimping on that should draw ire from the fan base.

 

Buckle up as things are about to get interesting.

 

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[Physics Guy]

I am a proponent of signing Donaldson.  The rest are all meh to me.

[notoriousgod71]

Donaldson is the best of the bunch but I'd be very concerned with his durability.

 

It would be nice to nice to add some more swagger to this team, however.

[cmoss84]

I would LOVE to sign Donaldson to a 1 year deal...whatever $ it takes. I just see someone taking a chance on a 3 year deal for him, which I would not. 

[TheLeviathan]

Honestly, I'd rather not have any of these guys. 

 

Maybe Donaldson, but he might be cooked.  He's got upside, so I wouldn't complain, but I'd rather invest elsewhere I think.

[beckmt]

Any of the guys would have high risk.   But maybe it is time we took some.  Prefer Donaldson, but either (and not both) would be a good start.

Twins have the ability to take on Santana's salary, and give only a low level prospect in return.  This is more a salary relief(clear a spot) play for Philly.  Think he could be gotten cheaply.  By the time it will make a payroll deference he will be gone.  

[Brandon]

I think Nelson Cruz is the best bet as power is the last skill to go. He will hit 30 HR next year. The question will be when his legs give out and he runs like Pujols.

[David HK]

I'd love to see Donaldson in Twinks' pinstripes- but I bet they get Cruz instead.

 

And I love Daniel Murphy- as a lynch-pin piece for a team like the Cubs, but not for this MN team at this time.

[old nurse]

Lo Mo II. Short term fill in, not likely to be effective, not likely to have upside, only decline.  Any of them should not have more than a one year  contract.  The time to have had any of these players was in Molitor's first year of managing.

[USAFChief]

Donaldson, please. Been beating that horse since mid summer. 

 

I don't care if he's a risk. The team is in a position where they need to take risks if they want to be relevant. And the risk/reward on Donaldson is the best of the bunch, by far.

 

Add Cruz, or Santana, plus a healthy Sano, and the middle of the order suddenly looks a lot different.

[old nurse]

Given the FO's apparent aversion to age there is little chance of them signing these players or trading for Santana

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, Donaldson AND Cruz makes a ton of sense. That means one of Sano, Cruz, Donaldson, and Austin are on the bench every day giving Rocco some options with platoons and what not. It also gives felxibility during the inevitable 15 day DL stint and adds some serious punch to lineup that was lacking it last year. I think a little protection for Sano, Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler can go a long way too. 

[NapoleonComplex]

Gotta go with Donaldson of the bunch. I'd rather risk cash by signing Donaldson rather than risk prospects in a trade for Santana.

[RatherBeGolfing]

 

Honestly, Donaldson AND Cruz makes a ton of sense. That means one of Sano, Cruz, Donaldson, and Austin are on the bench every day giving Rocco some options with platoons and what not. It also gives felxibility during the inevitable 15 day DL stint and adds some serious punch to lineup that was lacking it last year. I think a little protection for Sano, Buxton, Rosario, and Kepler can go a long way too. 

With a 13 man bullpen common though now, it is really, really hard to carry someone on the bench of that skillset if they can't provide any defensive versatility. If we have Sano/Cruz/Donaldson, Austin is not making the roster. No way they could carry all 4

[rdehring]

Only negative I see with Donaldson is that he is a right handed hitter, correct?  With Sano and Austin also right handed, a leftie would be nice.  Granted, with Rosario, Kepler, Castro and Polanco all being able to hit from the left side, the overall balance is ok.  Just means you can't platoon him with Sano/Austin.  Of this group, he is the only one that gets me a little excited.

 

Problem I see with Cruz is that you not only can't discount last year being down, you can count on it being the start of his downward spiral.  For that reason, he would be a no-no for me.  

Edited November 16, 2018 by rdehring

[Doomtints]

Want a big splash? Sano, Buxton, and Kepler for Kris Bryant.

[Doomtints]

 

Want a big splash? Sano, Buxton, and Kepler for Kris Bryant.

 

Revision: Sano, Buxton and Castro for Bryant.

[ChrisKnutson]

Besides Murphy, I really wouldn’t mind any of them, although I really hope the Twins can add Eugenio Suarez to the list of possibilities. I mean, the Padres kicked the tires on him, why not us, we have the bigger need.

[Thrylos]

Donaldson has chronic leg (calf) issues. 

 

Santana is not that great.  He had a 105 OPS+ and he is in decline.  That OPS+ is lower than the yet to reach his prime Tyler Austin (108 OPS+).  I'd give advantage to Austin.

Cruz is old.

 

From that group only Murphy (whose defense if you ask UZR is about as good as Dozier's at second base) does something for me, esp. as a most-time DH.

 

I like to buy low and my candidate for that is Jonathan Schoop who is a year removed from being an All Star, just entering his prime, and in a year full of injuries was ok in Baltimore before falling apart in Milwaukee.

[ewen21]

I am off the Donaldson train.  

[Tomj14]

 

Revision: Sano, Buxton and Castro for Bryant.

I would do this, but only if it includes adding a few other pieces.

[Tomj14]

So would trading for Santana free up the Phillies to go a little crazy in the free agent spending, seems their payroll is about the same as the Twins. I don't like that idea,

[terrydactyls]

In an article at philliesnation.com, the author postulates that the Twins are the best match for them in a Carlos Santana trade. He is suggesting offering the Twins Santana (and paying half his salary the next two years) along with a high prospect (the names Ranger Suarez and Enyel De Los Santos, #8 and #9 on the prospect list, were mentioned) for a lower level prospect. It sounds like the Phillies really want to unload the contract. So a possible trade would be: Santana and either Suarez or De Los Santos plus $15M cash to the Twins for one of the following: Akil Baddoo, Gilberto Celestine, Lamonte Wade or Jorge Alcala. I think I would take that.

[Thrylos]

 

In an article at philliesnation.com, the author postulates that the Twins are the best match for them in a Carlos Santana trade. He is suggesting offering the Twins Santana (and paying half his salary the next two years) along with a high prospect (the names Ranger Suarez and Enyel De Los Santos, #8 and #9 on the prospect list, were mentioned) for a lower level prospect. It sounds like the Phillies really want to unload the contract. So a possible trade would be: Santana and either Suarez or De Los Santos plus $15M cash to the Twins for one of the following: Akil Baddoo, Gilberto Celestine, Lamonte Wade or Jorge Alcala. I think I would take that.

 

Suarez < Moya, but I would do De Los Santos for Lamonte Wade 1-1 any day of the week

 

Regardless De Los Santos (and Suarez FWIW) need 40 men roster spots so the balance would be 0-2 for the Twins.   I really don't like Santana, but I like De Los Santos.  He is future closer material

 

[terrydactyls]

Suarez < Moya, but I would do De Los Santos for Lamonte Wade 1-1 any day of the week

 

Regardless De Los Santos (and Suarez FWIW) need 40 men roster spots so the balance would be 0-2 for the Twins.   I really don't like Santana, but I like De Los Santos.  He is future closer material

A question based on my ignorance of all the rules in baseball.....

 

Wouldn't only Santana need a 40-man spot? Does a trade for a minor leaguer mean you have to promote him to the 40-man roster?

[ashbury]

A question based on my ignorance of all the rules in baseball.....

 

Wouldn't only Santana need a 40-man spot? Does a trade for a minor leaguer mean you have to promote him to the 40-man roster?

Both Suarez and De Los Santos appeared with the Phillies this season, which means they were added to the 40-man. Unless either team wants to expose such player to a waiver claim by all other teams, on the 40-man he'll need to stay, even after a trade.

[Shaitan]

 

Revision: Sano, Buxton and Castro for Bryant.

 

Can you imagine Buxton hitting that outfield wall?

[DocBauer]

If someone could convince me that Donaldson has discovered yoga or Pilates to get himself over the injury hump I'd be all in!

 

Cruz is going to flatline, but it could still be a couple years coming. He still brings value, absolutely. I doubt he falls off the cliff in 2019. I'm just not sure he fits.

 

Of all options, I like Santana the most. He's still powerful and productive. He can play an OK 1B, catch or make an appearance at 3B in a pinch.

 

But I would pass on all of these for McCutchen or Brantley. What's wrong with a "too crowded" OF scenario if everything works out?

 

Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave and McCutchen/Brantley play OF/DH with Kepler at 1B along with Austin, Garver, Sano, possibly Astudillo? Too much depth? Let Rocco figure it out.

[terrydactyls]

Both Suarez and De Los Santos appeared with the Phillies this season, which means they were added to the 40-man. Unless either team wants to expose such player to a waiver claim by all other teams, on the 40-man he'll need to stay, even after a trade.

Thanks.

[mike8791]

Given what’s out there however, none of the necessary additions can simply be band-aids. Whether or not the front-office goes for it in 2019 or beginning in 2020 doesn’t much matter. This club needs an impact bat in the worst way and skimping on that should draw ire from the fan base.

 

Ted, couldn't have said it better!  This team has so many holes now that it would almost be like drawing to an inside straight to expect the team to be a legitimate playoff contender next year.  But try they must, given the state of the division, the likely decline of the Indians, a decent core, and most importantly, a surfeit of money.

 

Much has been said about the need for, not one, but at least two outside late-inning relievers who should, at least going into the season, above their two best current relievers, Rodgers and May.  This need can easily be addressed by a couple of shrewd free agent signings from a particularly deep crop this year(only a cautionary note: go for proven quality, not potential rebound candidates).

 

Assuming the FO can get that done, they should move on to filling glaring offense needs, mainly lack of both impact hitters and good OBP players.  Openings exist at DH, !B, 2b/SS, and 3B(Sano cannot be assumed to bounce back given his poor lack of self control).  The OF and C positions should hardly be priorities unless Kepler heading a package for a top starter is necessary(Buxton's fielding prowess makes him a  keeper, at least for the first 2-3 months of the season).  So your list presents some attractive candidates.  I would be delighted to snare two of Donaldson, Cruz, or Santana - but two would be a minimum in an ideal world.  Since up the middle defense is important, I might sacrifice a little offense, but not much.  Marwin Gonzales or Addison Russell would lead the list to fill the SS position.  These three new players would put a real jolt in an anemic Twins' lineup and would act as a bridge to the Twins next round of prospe cts for 2020-21.  Should either Sano or Buxton mature, all the better, but at least we wouldn't be counting on them to move forward offensively.

 

The topping on this offseason has to be at least one addition who would supplant Berrios as our #1 starter.  There are some trade candidates who surely must be looked at,e.g., Baumgartner, Greinke, Matz, Wheeler.  Yes, there is some risk in this list, but the Twins have the minor league depth now, along with one of our major league starters(Sano or Kepler) to appeal to a rebuilding team like the Mets, Giants or Dbacks  to get a trade done.

 

Completion of the above scenario is within the realm of possibility and with a new energetic manager and coaching staff, would be enough to bring back the franchise into relevance again.  Failure to do this will only keep the Twins treading water and wait for the next round of prospects.  That hope has been dashed too many times to believe it is a viable path anymore.  If this is a really dynamic FO, they need to show more resolve in building a winner in an offseason that offers so much promise.