MLB Trade Rumors Predictions

[tlkriens]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html

Some interesting guesses here. Three big ones for the Twins

Marwin Gonzalez – Twins.  Four years, $36MM
Jeurys Familia – Twins.  Three years, $33MM
Nelson Cruz – Twins.  Two years, $30MM

Would be an impressive haul for sure, for a not too bad $100 million.

[DocBauer]

Add a 2nd RP and another solid infielder and I'd be happy with that!

 

Still like McCutchen better than Cruz for OF depth, etc.

[Doomtints]

Here is what I want the Twins to do:

 

1) The Twins spend a little more to get younger players

2) The Twins shore up the pitching

 

There will never be another time when the Twins have this much money sitting on the table. Use it! The Twins have AMPLE options for serviceable players making the minimums (with all the ups and downs associated with those types of players). Now's the time to feed the other end of the team. The Twins haven't been in this position since the late 80s.

[caninatl04]

The article also mentions Zack Greinke as a possibility. Projected whip of 1.1, which would be nice.

And I concur that a full-time DH should be pretty much last on the shopping list as the Twins have (at least) one catcher, one infielder and one outfielder who will need at bats via the DH.

[USAFChief]

  On 11/3/2018 at 6:30 PM, caninatl04 said:

The article also mentions Zack Greinke as a possibility. Projected whip of 1.1, which would be nice.

And I concur that a full-time DH should be pretty much last on the shopping list as the Twins have (at least) one catcher, one infielder and one outfielder who will need at bats via the DH.

There are no current Twins that “need” DH ABs. Eddie Rosario led the team with an .803 OPS, and if he’d gotten 30 more PAs I doubt we’d have had even one regular over .800.

 

What the Twins “need” offensively is to sprinkle some legitimately good hitters into the middle of the lineup. They’re in no position to keep ANY lineup spot open, particularly DH, where you don’t have to worry about defense at all.

 

The catcher, infielder and outfielder you speak of can compete for ABs while in the field. Sign Cruz, and Donaldson while you’re at it. And perhaps Martin Gonzalez.

[Siehbiscuit]

Cruz doesn’t provide versatility, but we need ‘A’ list hitters, period. Cruz would be a legit .260/.350/.510, 40ish HR guy. Regardless if its full-time DH we could use a professional slugger like him. Power as a tool, usually ages well.

[DocBauer]

  On 11/3/2018 at 7:17 PM, Siehbiscuit said:

Cruz doesn’t provide versatility, but we need ‘A’ list hitters, period. Cruz would be a legit .260/.350/.510, 40ish HR guy. Regardless if its full-time DH we could use a professional slugger like him. Power as a tool, usually ages well.

Agreed. But doesn't McCutchen, or maybe Brantley, serve the lineup and roster and roster flexibility better as a whole?

[yarnivek1972]

I think the end is near for Cruz. 2015-17 OPS in the low .900s. Last year .850. Last year was also the first time in 5-6 years that he played fewer than 150 games.

 

I don’t like the trend.

 

IMO, Cruz is exactly the type of player the Ryan regime pursued: aging vets on their last legs. Every other team is looking to get younger and more versatile. Cruz looks like a “be mediocre” move to me.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Just read Reiter's Top 50 Free Agents list on SI. He lists free agents current team and suggested "best" new team to sign with. Didn't notice one player with the Twins listed as that player's best option. I might've missed somebody because I scanned through it pretty quickly.

 

Not that I necessarily want the Twins to try and sign any of these guys, but what the hey? Nobody's best option is the Twinkies?

[Blake]

 

  On 11/3/2018 at 8:27 PM, Dave The Dastardly said:

Just read Reiter's Top 50 Free Agents list on SI. He lists free agents current team and suggested "best" new team to sign with. Didn't notice one player with the Twins listed as that player's best option. I might've missed somebody because I scanned through it pretty quickly.

 

Not that I necessarily want the Twins to try and sign any of these guys, but what the hey? Nobody's best option is the Twinkies?

A lot of turmoil in the Twins organization.

 

Coaches are being let go throughout the organization plus the FO just hired a new manager who is probably going to bring in some of his own people.

 

My take, anyway.

[Danchat]

 

  On 11/3/2018 at 7:17 PM, Siehbiscuit said:

Cruz doesn’t provide versatility, but we need ‘A’ list hitters, period. Cruz would be a legit .260/.350/.510, 40ish HR guy. Regardless if its full-time DH we could use a professional slugger like him. Power as a tool, usually ages well.

Right, I'd more more concerned about regression like this rather than worry about a guy who will be a DH-only. Don't want to sign the next Logan Morrison...

[tlkriens]

Plenty of good, elite RP to sign if they want to spend.
 

Andrew Miller
Adam Ottovino
Joe Kelly
Kelvin Herrera
Zach Britton
David Robertson
Joakim Soria
Cody Allen
Brad Brach
Justin Wilson
Jesse Chavez

So who is the odd man out if they go OF? It won't be Rosario. Make or break year for Kepler. Who knows with Buxton. Brent Rooker will be up no later than 2020 to fill a 1B/DH/OF spot. Alex Kirilloff will be up in 2020 too, so I think they have OF covered for the future. 

[caninatl04]

  On 11/3/2018 at 8:27 PM, Dave The Dastardly said:

Just read Reiter's Top 50 Free Agents list on SI. He lists free agents current team and suggested "best" new team to sign with. Didn't notice one player with the Twins listed as that player's best option. I might've missed somebody because I scanned through it pretty quickly.

 

Not that I necessarily want the Twins to try and sign any of these guys, but what the hey? Nobody's best option is the Twinkies?

Tidally

Not that they necessarily panned out, but how many of last off-season’s FAs would have listed the Twins as their “best” option.

 

Let’s see iif Harper is signed by the Winter Meetings. Once he is signed, the other big payroll teams will then concentrate on the best of the rest. Only then can the Twins wade in. I know they have potentially as much or more money that most teams, but I don’t see them breaking the proverbial bank this year.

[lecroy24fan]

4yrs, $36M is way low on Marwin. I think 3 yrs, $36M is much closer to what he will get.

[notoriousgod71]

 

  On 11/3/2018 at 8:10 PM, yarnivek1972 said:

I think the end is near for Cruz. 2015-17 OPS in the low .900s. Last year .850. Last year was also the first time in 5-6 years that he played fewer than 150 games.

I don’t like the trend.

IMO, Cruz is exactly the type of player the Ryan regime pursued: aging vets on their last legs. Every other team is looking to get younger and more versatile. Cruz looks like a “be mediocre” move to me.

 

 

Ryan would have waited until he had three sub .750 OPS seasons and THEN signed him.

[Shaitan]

 

  On 11/3/2018 at 11:33 PM, notoriousgod71 said:

Ryan would have waited until he had three sub .750 OPS seasons and THEN signed him.

Agreed. Morrison is much more of a Ryan signing. 

[old nurse]

 

  On 11/3/2018 at 4:27 PM, Doomtints said:

Here is what I want the Twins to do:

 

1) The Twins spend a little more to get younger players

2) The Twins shore up the pitching

 

There will never be another time when the Twins have this much money sitting on the table. Use it! The Twins have AMPLE options for serviceable players making the minimums (with all the ups and downs associated with those types of players). Now's the time to feed the other end of the team. The Twins haven't been in this position since the late 80s.

Gonzales and Familia are 29   Why would the Twins even consider these geriatric players

[curt1965]

Relax-the Twins are not going to get any “significant” free agent. And not because of money. The Twin City area is just not a destination for any of those players (IMHO).

[ND-Fan]

I think if i were the Twins would be using additional free agent money in signing relief pitching not only for next year but for the next 3 years. I would want top of line closer that you can count on to get final outs. Second you still need at least another set up man for your closer even though we have couple in May and Hildenberg but other setup man should be hard throwing left hander. The next order of needs is find high end pitcher but here i would trade for one top prospects ready to make it majors going to cost you couple of prospects. second i would look very hard at what it will take Gordon ready to be here at major league ready. Now we come for immediate needs i would be looking for 3 baseman this would allow you move Sano to 1st or DH further protecting him from injury. I would also would be looking for veteran player that could be utility man and definitely with priority that he could hit. Now getting back to wish list i would love to find quality catcher that is young. Here's a thought getting Gibson and Ordorizzi signed to extensions and afterwards look at packaging them to trade to the Yankees for Gary Sanchez. i just think NY may be in the market for pitching before next season these two would provide them 3 and 4 starter and you may have to eat some salary to get deal done maybe somebody else thrown into the deal but that would provide you young catcher to go along with group of young players. Doing this would mean that we would be relying on pitchers coming up in the minors but something worth the risk. The still big risk yet will be at what level do Sano and Buxton perform but if that would turn you could have a team that could take the central division.  Another year after that you would have number of prospects about ready to jump to majors and even further advancing the chances of Twins winning the American league to go to world series. A lot of ifs but should have team that if you did do some extensions and new people coming up could be contenders for number of years. Also you would have top talent up the middle at catcher, SS, Second and center field for next 5 years if you did things right.  This would be my beginning plan but I would want to go over this with your manager and GM to get their input on future needs for the club.

[Lonestar]

 

  On 11/3/2018 at 8:10 PM, yarnivek1972 said:

I think the end is near for Cruz. 2015-17 OPS in the low .900s. Last year .850. Last year was also the first time in 5-6 years that he played fewer than 150 games.

I don’t like the trend.

IMO, Cruz is exactly the type of player the Ryan regime pursued: aging vets on their last legs. Every other team is looking to get younger and more versatile. Cruz looks like a “be mediocre” move to me.

One year is not a trend. No major change in BB%, K%, or exit velocity. Mostly BABIP.

He actually could do better if he didn't play half of his games in Safeco and an unbalanced schedule in Oakland, and Anaheim.

 

Still the man is 38 and doesn't pretend to field a position.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

  On 11/3/2018 at 7:17 PM, Siehbiscuit said:

Cruz doesn’t provide versatility, but we need ‘A’ list hitters, period. Cruz would be a legit .260/.350/.510, 40ish HR guy. Regardless if its full-time DH we could use a professional slugger like him. Power as a tool, usually ages well.

How did LoMo work out? 

[ashbury]

  On 11/5/2018 at 12:32 AM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

How did LoMo work out? 

Nishioka was a pretty bad acquisition too.

 

But what is the relevance? Morrison had a career-worst year at age 30 after a career-best season at 29. Nelson by contrast has Cruzed through his 30s at a high rate of production. There's not too much similar about them, so it's a bad lesson to learn from Morrison that signing a player is destined to fail.

 

I'd advocate getting someone by trade, instead, but Tommy Herr worked out so badly.

 

 

[Twodogs]

For some reason I don't think players are going to get those giant contracts like everyone thought, similar to last year. Towards the end, right when spring training is about to start you are going to see a lot of players signing one year contracts again. I think the Twins need to take a few fliers in this category. They need to get a couple of bullpen arms early, and then wait for who didn't get what they thought they should. I know it didn't work out last year, but I feel that was an anomaly, I think they could find a couple of guys that perform well in this manner and save years of contracts so as to be able to resign important Free agents that they are going to be dealing with. I feel this is going to have to be the way the Twins do things because I just don't see big name guys wanting to come to Minnesota. Once they prove they can win for 2 - 3 years in a row then that may change, but I feel it is what it is right now.

[Siehbiscuit]

  On 11/5/2018 at 12:32 AM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

How did LoMo work out?

 

Nelson Cruz has been a mainstay for nearly a decade and has had a SLG% over .500 EVERY season but one injury-plagued season 6 years ago.

 

Logan Morrison had ONE good season, and the Twins signed him for next to nothing. He tanked.

 

I would think the track record would matter in a legitimate discussion.

[Siehbiscuit]

  On 11/3/2018 at 7:23 PM, DocBauer said:

Agreed. But doesn't McCutchen, or maybe Brantley, serve the lineup and roster and roster flexibility better as a whole?

I agree that McCutchen and Brantley can definitely improve the Twins team. But to make that move, the team would essentially be punting on Kepler. If the Twins can move him for a valuable piece, then an OF makes some sense.

 

After watching a punchless Twins team in 2018, I’d love to have a very good power bat in the middle of the lineup. I love the idea of a versatile defense and roster and those are great components to build a winning team. Normally, I would say that DH should be filled by guys needing days off and marginal defenders, but if a .850-900+ OPS-type bat is available and he needs that spot 140+ times a year. I think you make room for that production. Just my opinion.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

  On 11/5/2018 at 3:43 PM, Siehbiscuit said:

Nelson Cruz has been a mainstay for nearly a decade and has had a SLG% over .500 EVERY season but one injury-plagued season 6 years ago.

Logan Morrison had ONE good season, and the Twins signed him for next to nothing. He tanked.

I would think the track record would matter in a legitimate discussion.

Good point Siebiscuit. Thanks for getting me back on track for a "legitimate discussion" about whether signing Cruz to only DH is a good idea. I contend that it is not, due to the plethora of alternatives available to DH for the Twins next year, all of whom can play defensive positions.

[DocBauer]

  On 11/5/2018 at 3:51 PM, Siehbiscuit said:

I agree that McCutchen and Brantley can definitely improve the Twins team. But to make that move, the team would essentially be punting on Kepler. If the Twins can move him for a valuable piece, then an OF makes some sense.

 

After watching a punchless Twins team in 2018, I’d love to have a very good power bat in the middle of the lineup. I love the idea of a versatile defense and roster and those are great components to build a winning team. Normally, I would say that DH should be filled by guys needing days off and marginal defenders, but if a .850-900+ OPS-type bat is available and he needs that spot 140+ times a year. I think you make room for that production. Just my opinion.

Totally respect your opinion. And again, would be pretty happy if Cruz was brought on board.

 

I also agree with your reference to guys taking "off days" to DH. That's kind of where I'm at, though a "primary" DH who can still play the field some is great! And that's why I like the McCutchen idea. Between 3 OF spots, DH, days off and Kepler playing some 1B, I think there's room for all 5 OF. (Assuming nobody is hurt and misses appreciable time, which obviously changes the dynamics some).

[nicksaviking]

I'd prefer to improve the offense by other means than Cruz, but if they did sign him, they'd be hard pressed to also find a 1B only player as well. If they also want to improve offensive production, I don't think the Twins have the roster room for two defensively stuck players.

 

Which is OK by me, I don't want some league average hitter plugging up the 1B spot and from the looks of it, whether they go internal or external to get at bats for the 1B spot this year, league average is probably about the most optimistic outcome they can hope for.. 

[Doomtints]

Since the Twins are building up to something special, it's really not the right time for Cruz, in my opinion.

 

If the Twins were looking to supplement because they have the other pieces settled or were bringing up a lot of rookies then I could see a place for him.

[bighat]

 

  On 11/3/2018 at 6:51 PM, USAFChief said:

They’re in no position to keep ANY lineup spot open, particularly DH, where you don’t have to worry about defense at all.
 

 

Agreed. Players the Twins used at DH in 2018 include: Johnny Field, Chris Gimenez, Logan Forsythe, Ryan Lamarre, Ehire Adrianza, and Gregor Petit. Ouch.

 

Robbie Grossman started the most games at DH for the Twins with a grand total of 36! Nelson Cruz, on the other hand, was the DH in 136 Mariners' games last season.