Article: What if This is the Max for Kepler?

[Jham]

Did he start late? That had always been my assumption, but I ran across an article about him that said he played a ton of baseball in Germany as a youth, starting at age 6. His mother is an American, so apparently he embraced that side of his heritage. Obviously the level of competition in Germany wouldn't be high, but it's not like someone handed him a baseball bat at age 17 and said, "here, give this a try - no, hold it at the knob end".

 

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/15206207/max-kepler-big-move-germany-minnesota-twins

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Kepler

I was just repeating the narrative. Oops. But I always thought playing pro at 16 is an advantage. Same with the "Sano is still only __ years old" argument.

[Jham]

Disagree. He still has 3 years of arbitration control left and now he's established himself as a good starting MLB player averaging 2 WAR a season. There's plenty of value in that...

Which part do you disagree with? That we can't get value trading him presumably? I guess it just takes 1. Seems like a guy the Astros, Yankees, or Jays could work with.

[Lonestar]

 

The Twins don't have any "serious problems." They have holes to fill (because players left, not because players suck) and they have a huge wad of cash to do it with. This is the year the front office gets to prove itself. This is what every front office dreams about.

Their CF sucks until proven otherwise. Their 3B sucks until proven otherwise. Those are holes. Their SS sucks at defense (proven) and some think the same deficiencies would follow him to 2B.

[Loops]

I like Kepler.  As things stand currently I would rather have a consistent above average Kepler than a Buxton/Sano who can't be counted on to be on the field and who knows what you get when they are?

[nicksaviking]

His Line Drive % is very low and always has been, but this year he clearly made an effort to hit more fly balls as his FB% and GB% basically flip-flopped. However he also has a very high Soft Hit% and a below average Hard Hit %.

 

There has to be more line drives, but maybe the new strength and conditioning folks will get him stronger. Strength probably isn't the only factor in hitting the ball harder, but I'm sure it doesn't hurt.

[Vanimal46]

His low BABIP has been described here as bad luck. Eventually bad luck becomes the norm when he's had a low BABIP over 2+ seasons. Reminds me of the Nolasco conversations we had a few years ago where his FIP was always a run+ better than his ERA. Eventually we have to conclude this is who he is.

[Vanimal46]

Which part do you disagree with? That we can't get value trading him presumably? I guess it just takes 1. Seems like a guy the Astros, Yankees, or Jays could work with.

I disagreed with your thought that we're stuck with him now or need to extend him. If he were on the trade block there will be interest from a few teams to acquire him.

[wsnydes]

 

He is swinging at bad pitches. Pitchers are inducing pop flies off of him with regularity.

If he was swinging at so many bad pitches, he'd be striking out more and walking less. Neither of those are the case. The opposite was actually true. Some guys hit a lot of ground balls. Some guys hit a lot of fly balls. Some guys hit a lot of line drives. If the launch angle revolution has taught us anything, it's that such things can be coached. He needs to hit more line drives. His average would go up accordingly. 

[Sarah]

I also like Kepler, he's a good outfielder. Hitting is not easy, I'd like to see another full season out of him. 

[Doomtints]

 

If he was swinging at so many bad pitches, he'd be striking out more and walking less. Neither of those are the case. The opposite was actually true. Some guys hit a lot of ground balls. Some guys hit a lot of fly balls. Some guys hit a lot of line drives. If the launch angle revolution has taught us anything, it's that such things can be coached. He needs to hit more line drives. His average would go up accordingly. 

 

Good pitchers induce weak infield hits and lazy pop flies. So yeah, he's swinging at bad pitches.

[jmlease1]

Kepler is a useful player even if his bat never improves, but we were all hoping for more than just "useful". there's a lot of value in having a guy with plays excellent outfield defense and can play multiple positions, but the biggest reason for his jump in defensive statistics wasn't because his defense got so much better, but because of how much additional time he logged in CF. Does he play 40+ games in CF next year with Jake Cave and Byron Buxton on the roster next season?

 

Positional adjustments are a bitch. Moving Kepler to 1B only makes the problem worse, in that he'd have less ability to influence the game with defense (his strength) and more need to influence the game on offense (not his strength).

 

Kepler needs to improve his hitting or show he can take over CF full time (the latter creates a whole new set of a issues). If he does either, then he's an above average starter. If he doesn't, then he probably isn't the answer as a starter in RF but would have a lot of value as a 4th OF.

[wsnydes]

 

Good pitchers induce weak infield hits and lazy pop flies. So yeah, he's swinging at bad pitches.

Good pitchers also induce more K's and fewer walks.

 

There aren't that many good pitchers in the game to explain his poor hard hit rate. Besides, it's not like he's facing an ace every day. Pitch selection is certainly part of it, but it's certainly not all of it. He simply needs to learn to drive the ball. That's coachable. So is pitch selection for that matter.

Edited October 19, 2018 by wsnydes

[kenbuddha]

 

Seems like a guy the Astros, Yankees, or Jays could work with.

I want the Twins to be lumped in with the Astros, Yankees and Jays. I want them to be a team that can work with a guy like Kepler. I still have hope.

[Lonestar]

I am a big fan of Max, but I have finally realized (thanx to Doomtint's and wsnyde's dialogue) that he won't be more than he is until he fixes his swing and pitch selection. Send him to Driveline Baseball in Seattle or some equivalent.

[chpettit19]

Max is (likely) never going to be a 1-4 or even #5 hitter on a championship team, and he never was supposed to be. I see a lot of Josh Reddick in him. Big time defender who hits 6-9 in the order. Not a superstar, but can definitely be a starter on a WS team. No, he hasn't gotten there with the bat, but he's looked drastically better than the guys who were supposed to be hitting 1 and 3 for us right now. Maybe he never hits above .250 with 20-25 HRs and that'd be a shame, but if he's a gold glove type defender that's still useful if you're not relying on him to hit 5th or 6th for you. 

 

What is often missed on these boards, and in some of the articles, is that looking at all 25 (or 40) guys on the roster individually is useful only in the connection between them and the other 24 (or 39) other guys. If anyone on here, or in the organization, was thinking Max was the future protection for Sano hitting in the 4 hole they were fooling themselves. That was never what he was supposed to be. I think that is the big thing the front office has been working on during these first 2 years. Getting accurate reads on the guys in the organization and what realistic ceilings for them are. We labeled Sano the next Carbera and Buxton the next Trout. That's absurd. It's fun to think of how great they could be, but Sano was never going to hit .330 with 40 and 120, and Buxton was never going to do that and steal 40 bases to go with it. And Kepler was never going to hit .300 with 30 and 100. I know he had some good numbers in the minors, but using that as your basis for what they should do in the majors is misinformed of how it works. Max came up with holes in his swing and he's done a solid job of making progress on closing them. That's what leads to all the pop ups. He hasn't closed the hole and pitches throw pitches to the places he doesn't have the ability to square the ball up yet. Continued work (and he's certainly showed he puts in the work to fix his struggles) should likely lead to an uptick in the BABIP and in turn BA, but he's still not going to be the 4 or 5 hitter on the next WS Twins team. But if you have him hitting .275 with 25 in the 7 or 8 hole you're onto something. 

They can't all be superstars and not being a superstar doesn't make them a bust or useless. It just looks bad when the guys who were supposed to be hitting 1-5 almost all completely flop and a guy who isn't supposed to be there ends up getting thrust into that position. If Buxton, Sano, Dozier, Mauer, Polanco, and Rosario all hit the way they should have all season and Kepler was hitting 7th people wouldn't be so down on him and the Twins would have competed for a playoff spot. Kepler isn't a failure for not "stepping up" because the other guys failed. Kepler did his job this year. Would it be nice to see improvement, and should we expect continued improvement? Yes. But if you're waiting for him to hit .300 with 30 you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Maybe he'll do that someday, but it shouldn't be the expectation.

[yarnivek1972]

His Line Drive % is very low and always has been, but this year he clearly made an effort to hit more fly balls as his FB% and GB% basically flip-flopped. However he also has a very high Soft Hit% and a below average Hard Hit %.

 

There has to be more line drives, but maybe the new strength and conditioning folks will get him stronger. Strength probably isn't the only factor in hitting the ball harder, but I'm sure it doesn't hurt.

According to BR, his career LD% is 24%. MLB average is 26%. So, he’s lower than average, but not nearly enough to explain a .260 career babip. I wish I could explain it. I certainly hope someone working for the Twins can and is able to do something about it.

[kenbuddha]

I hope(!) Kepler will have a Tom Brunansky type of career. I think that's his ceiling. Which wouldn't be bad.

[ashbury]

But if you have him hitting .275 with 25 in the 7 or 8 hole you're onto something.

What you describe sounds a little like George Springer (.265 and 22). Houston doesn't bat him in the 7 or 8 hole real often.

 

45 players in MLB this year hit 20 or more homers and batted.265 or better. Of these, all but 5 OPS'ed .800 or better - the laggard among them was Marcell Ozuna at .758 (because he hardly ever doubles).

 

OK, that's unfair, because it counts guys who hit way better than you're asking Kepler to do. So take just the guys between .265 and .285, and with 20 to 27 HR (actually I went to 30 but no one happened to have that combination at 28-30). 18 guys, again all but 5 with .800 OPS or better. I didn't exhaustively check, but spot-checking the lowest OPS guys, I found only Maikel Franco batting (occasionally) 7th.

 

Kepler elevating to .275 while watching a few of those additional balls-in-play go out of the park would be HUGE. If he got there (still a big "if"), he wouldn't sit at 7 or 8 for any team.

[DocBauer]

I'll admit to being a fan of Kepler, and an optimistic one at that.

 

I don't pretend to know the ,even if play he faced while in Germany, or the quality of his coaches. I have been one of those who have stated he came over "behind" due to an "expected" lower level of competition in my mind. Am I wrong? Perhaps I am. But I think about HS teams, legion ball, camps, etc, and always felt he was probably at a bit of an initial disadvantage. He also was prompted with only a short stay in AAA after his breakout AA season. Perhaps he needed a little more time to hone his game?

 

I simply can't explain his BABIP. What I see is a good eye, no appreciable SO numbers, decent contact, and a ball that jumps off his bat when decently squared up. I've also seen a lot of hard hit line drives that are caught. Perception? Luck? Again, I don't have the answer.

 

I also can't explain his weird splits after 3 seasons. Maybe I'm just an optimist, but I keep seeing a guy who is still figuring it all out at the ML level, has budding power and is a fine athlete. I just find myself believing 2019 is the year the splits balance out, and we begin to see that 25HR power with .270 AVG+.

 

Sure hope I'm right!

[Danchat]

Kepler has done everything right... he's taking more walks, striking out less, getting better defensively, staying healthy for three straight seasons, but he's been a liability at the plate. I think the 2.6 WAR stat overrates him, as most of the value comes from his defense, which I don't think is worth as much as others do.

 

It's so frustrating, because Max should be hitting better and he's had everything trend the right direction - I think they just have to wait another season and see if it all clicks. Between him, Sano, and Buxton, he'd be the most obvious candidate to break out due to the reasons I stated above. If he continues to stagnate around a .720 OPS, I think I'd rather see him platoon (if he regresses to the norm against LHPs) as the 4th OF and try somebody else in RF.

 

Also, I fully agree with Vanimal, the low BABIP is becoming a trend. He hits weak flyballs that are easy to catch - that's going to keep the BABIP low.

[Aerodeliria]

This is another well-reasoned critique of Max Kepler; however, the Buxton saga is far more worrisome to me. There seems to be this assumption in the sports writing world that Buxton's 2018 performance was simply an anomaly and he'll rebound to where he was in the latter part of 2017. Personally, I'm not convinced that the latter half of 2017 was not the anomaly, and that 2019 may reveal that the cracks which reappeared in 2018 are not just surface blemishes but foundational. I hope I'm wrong...

[bird]

 

He's a cog, not a difference maker. Solid player but expendable, especially with Kiriloff coming up. I'd consider trading him and let Cave/Wade hold the corner down until Kiriloff but if they don't get a great offer, we could do worse than letting him play for us.

 

 

He might be expendable NEXT off-season. But only if Cave has that breakout season and becomes proven (or someone else comes along) and only if Kirilloff or someone else steps up to solve the 1B problem. I'm not sure I wouldn't place my bet on Kepler over Cave as the more productive player in 2019. I like Kirilloff at 1B and Kepler in RF if they both make the grade offensively.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't think people have realized how much batting averages are down across the league..... Some of these posts are suggesting he's not good enough unless he's a top thirty player across all of baseball. Sure, he needs more hitting, but he's not that far off

[Richie the Rally Goat]

He is swinging at bad pitches. Pitchers are inducing pop flies off of him with regularity.

is that pitch selection or hitting mechanics?

 

Parker Hageman’s gifs in the comments were especially helpful for me.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/process-set-to-yield-results-for-kepler-r7105

 

The mechanical contrast between Kepler and Rosario were especially enlightening for me.

 

I’ve been of the opinion that the Twins need to acquire a big hitting RF this offseason and let Kepler and Buxton compete for CF/4th OF.

 

I wouldn’t wait to find out the answer to this question, i’d accumulate as much talent as I can and trade strength to improve weakness.

 

If Kepler and Buxton both suddenly figure it out and you have two all-stars additionally, great! More is better.

 

If Buxton needs more time to figure things out, Kepler is a very adequate CF with approximate league average bat. He’s certainly a valuable player you hold onto.

Edited October 20, 2018 by Sconnie

[jorgenswest]

I think one of Cave or Kepler will step up as a solid RF. It is good to have both,

 

Kepler has the plate discipline and needs to make better contact more often. He will improve as he enters his prime. Will it improve enough?

 

Cave barreled the ball often and needs to manage the strike zone or pitchers will not throw him pitches he can barrel. His strike zone management will improve as he hits his prime. Will it improve enough?

 

I would lean towards Kepler with the better strikezone management to be more likely to take the step forward next year. I think Cave is going to have some struggles as pitchers adjust and he improves in his plate discipline but has the higher long term ceiling.

 

There is a spot for both on the roster and there will be plenty of playing time for both. They need to perform.

[DocBauer]

is that pitch selection or hitting mechanics?

 

Parker Hageman’s gifs in the comments were especially helpful for me.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/process-set-to-yield-results-for-kepler-r7105

 

The mechanical contrast between Kepler and Rosario were especially enlightening for me.

 

I’ve been of the opinion that the Twins need to acquire a big hitting RF this offseason and let Kepler and Buxton compete for CF/4th OF.

 

I wouldn’t wait to find out the answer to this question, i’d accumulate as much talent as I can and trade strength to improve weakness.

 

If Kepler and Buxton both suddenly figure it out and you have two all-stars additionally, great! More is better.

 

If Buxton needs more time to figure things out, Kepler is a very adequate CF with approximate league average bat. He’s certainly a valuable player you hold onto.

Agree 100% on adding a bat, not sure if I care if said player can take a turn at 1B or the OF here and there, but an occasional OF appearance seems like a more likely scenario based on the FA market, barring a trade.

 

I am torn whether this bat should hit in the heart of the lineup...assuming for a moment we get back the old Sano...or be a dangerous bat at the top of the lineup so Polanco can continue to flourish in the 2-3 spot.

 

Were I in charge of things, I would find that ideal FA/trade bat and sign Escobar both. With Rosario, Polanco, and some hope for Sano and Kepler, I'd feel pretty good about the top of my order.

 

Feeling some good hope for Garver and Austin to help fill out the balance of the lineup. (Do I even have to mention hope for Buxton to just hit .250 somewhere in the bottom half)?

[killertwinfan]

Kepler appears to be making good adjustments at the plate.  If he can combine the best of his approaches to righties in 2017 and lefties in 2018 I think he takes the next step.  He is still young and improving.  This team is going nowhere anytime soon, you might as well wait and see while grooming his replacement..

[ChrisKnutson]

Agree 100% on adding a bat, not sure if I care if said player can take a turn at 1B or the OF here and there, but an occasional OF appearance seems like a more likely scenario based on the FA market, barring a trade.

I am torn whether this bat should hit in the heart of the lineup...assuming for a moment we get back the old Sano...or be a dangerous bat at the top of the lineup so Polanco can continue to flourish in the 2-3 spot.

Were I in charge of things, I would find that ideal FA/trade bat and sign Escobar both. With Rosario, Polanco, and some hope for Sano and Kepler, I'd feel pretty good about the top of my order.

Feeling some good hope for Garver and Austin to help fill out the balance of the lineup. (Do I even have to mention hope for Buxton to just hit .250 somewhere in the bottom half)?

 

Since you’re talking about adding an impact bat(s) to our lineup, who do you have in mind besides Esco, because I really doubt he’ coming back?? Personally, I’d like to see us sign Nelson Cruz and then trade for either Matt Carpenter or Justin Smoak.

 

[IndianaTwin]

He only needs 23 more HRs to be the all-time leader among guys born in Germany. That wouldn’t be the wurst news.

Edited October 21, 2018 by IndianaTwin

[70charger]

He only needs 23 more HRs to be the all-time leader among guys born in Germany. That wouldn’t be the wurst news.

Even the army brats?