Article: An Offseason of Intrigue

[Major League Ready]

 

False, you are cherry picking to make him look bad. Look at his career numbers. Then realize he's got a cannon for an arm and plays his ass off every game. He's slugged around .500 the last few seasons. The guy has serious pop in his bat. 

 

I will give you the plate discipline, but here you have a corner outfielder with pop, plays pretty good defense and is in his prime. 

 

I have been a big Rosario fan but the facts are the facts. There is no disputing his 2nd half was very poor. The league adjusts to players that are productive. He did not adjust back. As a matter of fact he is among the very worst in the league at swinging a pitches outside the zone. 

 

The good news is that plate discipline can be developed. Can or will Rosario develop it. Your guess is as good as mine but at present, I seriously doubt his approach will net above average offensive numbers going forward. 

[yarnivek1972]

Trade for:

 

SP Zack Wheeler & OF/DH Jay Bruce (Gonsalves, Kepler, Gordon, ?)

 

Sign:

SP Patrick Corbin (4/80)

 

IF Eduardo Escobar or Asdrúbal Cabrera (3/18 or 2/10)

 

CL Craig Kimbrel (3/45)

LHSU Zach Britton (2/20)

 

Net ~ + $70M or so.

 

C Castro/Carver

1B Austin

2B Escobar

SS Polanco

3B Sano

LF Rosario

CF Buxton

RF Bruce

 

UT Astubillo

OF Cave

UT ???

(DH rotating)

 

SP Wheeler

SP Corbin

SP Berrios

SP Gibson

SP Pineda/Odorrizi

 

CL Kimbrel

LHSU Britton

RHSU May

LHRP Rogers

2RP 2 of Drake/Hildenberger/Magill/Mejia/De Jong/?

mop up Odorizzi/Pineda

 

Bada book. Bada boom

 

Might be the worst infield defense ever.

[jorgenswest]

This is how Twins position players ranked by OPS for the 2nd half off the season (After 6/30)

 

Grossman ----- .852

Garver --------- .823

Cave ----------- .815

Polanco -------- .773

Kepler --------- .756

Mauer --------- .729

Forsythe ------ .648

Rosario  ------- .642

 

Rosario's plate disciple is not existent at times and teams adjusted how they pitch to him. I had a man crush on this guy ever since I watched him in the Arizona Fall Championship but I am tired of watching his horrible ABs. Will he develop the discipline necessary to be a top player? I don't know and I am not sure we would get a big return for him because Al teams have learned how to nullify him.

 

Slash stats vary widely in partial season samples. I don’t think they have any meaning for the future and do not represent a trend.

[70charger]

This is how Twins position players ranked by OPS for the 2nd half off the season (After 6/30)

 

Grossman ----- .852

Garver --------- .823

Cave ----------- .815

Polanco -------- .773

Kepler --------- .756

Mauer --------- .729

Forsythe ------ .648

Rosario  ------- .642

 

Rosario's plate disciple is not existent at times and teams adjusted how they pitch to him. I had a man crush on this guy ever since I watched him in the Arizona Fall Championship but I am tired of watching his horrible ABs. Will he develop the discipline necessary to be a top player? I don't know and I am not sure we would get a big return for him because Al teams have learned how to nullify him.

 

So, by this logic we should be getting rid of guys like Rosario and going out to find more guys like ...Grossman?

 

Yeah, I’m going with cherry picked sample.

[h2oface]

This whole idea that shortstops and catchers shouldn't hit, or it is OK if they don't, is so lame. MLB players should all hit. To accept those that can't is why teams don't win pennants.

[Major League Ready]

 

So, by this logic we should be getting rid of guys like Rosario and going out to find more guys like ...Grossman?

Yeah, I’m going with cherry picked sample.

 

You employ a different form of logic than I do or any MLB team for that matter. No team is going to make a retention decision based on a half-season performance measured by a single statistic for a player with over 2000 PA over 4 seasons. I simply pointed out that his 2nd half was a bad as his first half was good.

 

I would make personnel decisions based on a larger sample size but I would give some weight to the most recent data. Rosario’s career OPs is 35 point below the league average. His OPS this year was still below league average. Apparently your logic dictates that focusing on the bad outlier is cherry picking but focusing on the good outlier (1st) half should be the basis for personnel decisions.

I am not suggesting we should expect performance similar to either half year. However, is it logical to presume extremely poor plate discipline will not significantly reduce offensive production? Is it logical to believe Rosario will be able to perform at an elite level with horrible plate discipline? He ranked 271st for plate discipline out of 278 ML players with 300+ ABs. I think it’s logical to assume the league adjusted because Rosario was incredibly productive. The result was quite clear.

 

The logic I employ would suggest his manager and coaches sit down with Eddie and perhaps even his agent and discuss the need for Eddie to develop at least modest plate discipline because I believe it is logical to assume ML teams/pitchers are going to continue to throw pitches that are extremely difficult for anyone to hit as long as Eddie continues to swing at bad pitches. If the team believes he is incapable of adapting, it might be logical to assume the adjustments the league has made will result in performance much closer to his 2nd half numbers than his first half numbers. In that case, it might make sense to trade him if you can find a team that believes he is he will perform fairly close to the 950 OPS he put up in the first half and are willing to provide value commensurate with that kind of performance.

Edited October 9, 2018 by Major Leauge Ready

[Kelly Vance]

 

I have been a big Rosario fan but the facts are the facts. There is no disputing his 2nd half was very poor. The league adjusts to players that are productive. He did not adjust back. As a matter of fact he is among the very worst in the league at swinging a pitches outside the zone. 

 

The good news is that plate discipline can be developed. Can or will Rosario develop it. Your guess is as good as mine but at present, I seriously doubt his approach will net above average offensive numbers going forward. 

You could be describing Kirby Puckett

[70charger]

 

You employ a different form of logic than I do or any MLB team for that matter. No team is going to make a retention decision based on a half-season performance measured by a single statistic for a player with over 2000 PA over 4 seasons. I simply pointed out that his 2nd half was a bad as his first half was good.

 

I would make personnel decisions based on a larger sample size but I would give some weight to the most recent data. Rosario’s career OPs is 35 point below the league average. His OPS this year was still below league average. Apparently your logic dictates that focusing on the bad outlier is cherry picking but focusing on the good outlier (1st) half should be the basis for personnel decisions.

 

Wow. No.

 

My entire point is to quit focusing on the outliers. Don't cherry pick samples either way. Don't pretend like baseball teams' front offices do, either.

 

Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your stats, but Rosario's career OPS is .784. League average for the last 80 years has never been that high. Similarly, Rosario's 2018 OPS is .803. League average for the last 10 years has been around .720.

 

Also, it so happens that Rosario has, beginning in 2017, dramatically improved his discipline. He went from a strikeout to walk ratio in the 7 range in 2016 down to 3 in 2017. He regressed a bit this year, to 3.5, and I don't personally see that as any reason to panic. His walk rate this year is above his career average, and at 26 years old, I don't know why anyone would assume it has peaked.

 

Finally, you think you'll find a team that will trade for him on the basis of his .950 first-half production, and not on his career numbers and trends? That's ridiculous, and I don't think it lines up with your claim to know how baseball front offices make their decisions.

[70charger]

Stats for reference:

 

MLB batting stats: https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

 

Rosario stats: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rosared01-bat.shtml

[jkcarew]

Here's hoping that, at least for this off-season, the FO acts as if they consider the competition to NOT be the Cleveland Indians.  The notion that you can get into the post-season, then "anything can happen" is a false narrative.  The underdog will win even one playoff round rarely...and even then only when there is serious upside talent in the batting order and a dominant arm or two.  If anyone thinks that Cleveland should be the yard-stick for 2019/2020, I'd challenge whether you've seen the Yankees, Astros, or Red Sox play...at any point during the year....let alone this past week.

 

The reality is that the Twins of the last couple of years (yes, even the 2017 version) are at or near the bottom of the other two AL divisions.  There is a LONG way to go with this club.  IMO, moves that represent starting over make more sense at this point than middling signings of tier-two free-agents...or trades that 'add major-league depth'.  Either blow it up now, or make BIG moves to sign/acquire top talent/upside.

[Major League Ready]

 

Wow. No.

 

My entire point is to quit focusing on the outliers. Don't cherry pick samples either way. Don't pretend like baseball teams' front offices do, either.

 

Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your stats, but Rosario's career OPS is .784. League average for the last 80 years has never been that high. Similarly, Rosario's 2018 OPS is .803. League average for the last 10 years has been around .720.

 

Also, it so happens that Rosario has, beginning in 2017, dramatically improved his discipline. He went from a strikeout to walk ratio in the 7 range in 2016 down to 3 in 2017. He regressed a bit this year, to 3.5, and I don't personally see that as any reason to panic. His walk rate this year is above his career average, and at 26 years old, I don't know why anyone would assume it has peaked.

 

Finally, you think you'll find a team that will trade for him on the basis of his .950 first-half production, and not on his career numbers and trends? That's ridiculous, and I don't think it lines up with your claim to know how baseball front offices make their decisions.

 

Check back ... I used OPS for corner outfielders. What is obviously much more relevant than comparing to all position players.   His career OPS of .784 is 35 points below the average of .819 for corner outfielders.

 

A child failing the 6th grade would probably know better than to think a team would give value commensurate with a player able to sustain a .950 OPS. It was a tongue and cheek statement.

 

There is absolutely no denying Rosario takes horrible ABs. The numbers don't lie and he was almost the worst in all of baseball. Fanaticism is not a good foundation for logical or even rational thinking. The situation with Sano is the perfect example. When I tried to say it was not too much to ask for a professional athlete to stay in shape and there was obviously room for a  6'4" 280lbs + man to lose some weight, there were people here who were absolutely incensed at my suggestion that he was out of shape. 

 

 

 

[Major League Ready]

 

You could be describing Kirby Puckett

 

He can swing at anything he likes when he proves he can do that and produce consistently at a much higher level than Rosario has with the exception of the 1st half of this season. Do you actually believe he can consistently produce a 900 OPS with the plate disciple he practiced the 2nd half of the season of is your response for show? Of course, you won't answer this question because we both know Rosario's only chance of having a .900+ OPS for an entire season is to develop and maintain good plate discipline but you responded the way you did despite this knowledge.

[Kelly Vance]

I don't let myself be glued to OPS as if it is the only stat. As Mark Twain said, "There are lies, damn lies, and statistics."

 

Thing is, Eddie makes things happen.

 

He is a catalyst kind of player. Every team needs one of these guys.  Eddie swings at bad pitches (et tu Mike Cuddy?) and so did Kirby, Oliva, etc. Its not the swinging at bad pitches I mind, its the "not hitting it" part that bothers.  

 

But Rosie throws guys out on defense, covers LF well, and starts rallies. On this team he is what passes for reliable on offense. Anyway, you don't kick his kind of player with 20 homer potential aside. 

[yarnivek1972]

You could be describing Kirby Puckett

From 1986 to 1995 Puckett’s worst OPS+ was 119. Coincidentally, that is Rosario’s best - last year. When Rosario can produce like that, he can swing at anything he wants.

[Kelly Vance]

 

He can swing at anything he likes when he proves he can do that and produce consistently at a much higher level than Rosario has with the exception of the 1st half of this season. Do you actually believe he can consistently produce a 900 OPS with the plate disciple he practiced the 2nd half of the season of is your response for show? Of course, you won't answer this question because we both know Rosario's only chance of having a .900+ OPS for an entire season is to develop and maintain good plate discipline but you responded the way you did despite this knowledge

 

OPS is not my big deal. It shows only what it shows. Sure, you want a guy with  high slugging percentage hitting 3-4-5. You want on base guys with high OBP batting 1-2, as table setters.

But you can have a high OPS and not matter in the box score.

 

RBIs matter more to me. Because it is more of a direct reflection of scoring.  Winning games is the only stat that I really care about.  Rosie wins games. On defense, with homers, etc.

 

You got down on him for losing plate discipline. I see a guy that is trying too hard to fill the gap. I don't get down on a good player for doing that. We make adjustments and move forward. We get it back in the front of his brain that in order to cream the pitch you have to hit the ball on the bat's sweet spot. That is easier to do when the ball is in the zone. Rosie is one of our best players and still young. Don't be so harsh. 

 

 

[Kelly Vance]

 

From 1986 to 1995 Puckett’s worst OPS+ was 119. Coincidentally, that is Rosario’s best - last year. When Rosario can produce like that, he can swing at anything

 

Remember, Puck was a hall of famer. But I was making a point. There are some guys who are low ball hitters, some are high ball hitters, some are high ball drinkers...... but I digress.

 

There are also bad ball hitters. They defy convention. I think Eddie is one of those. But sure, you gotta hit it if you are going to be allowed to swing at bad balls. And it is true, once the word gets out, that is likely all you are gonna see. So, I agree with you that, you better hit the damn pitch if you are going to chase a pitch outside the box. 

 

When I coach, I stress swinging at only strikes, and only good strikes early in the count.  Still, I occasionally get a bad ball hitter on my team. When one crushes a homer on a pitch up in his eyes, I don't make him run laps. I go get the ball and sign and date it for him to celebrate the homer. Then we talk about getting back to basics

Edited October 10, 2018 by Kelly Vance

[old nurse]

Eddie Rosario woba last 2 years .349 and .340 WRC+ 116 and 113. ISO is around .200   All of these stats are well above average for a corner outfielder  BB% is in the 5% range where league average is in the 9% range OPS is never going to like Eddie Rosario.  Statistic roulette, pick your favorite.

[Mr. Brooks]

Trade for:

 

SP Zack Wheeler & OF/DH Jay Bruce (Gonsalves, Kepler, Gordon, ?)

 

Sign:

SP Patrick Corbin (4/80)

 

IF Eduardo Escobar or Asdrúbal Cabrera (3/18 or 2/10)

 

CL Craig Kimbrel (3/45)

LHSU Zach Britton (2/20)

 

Net ~ + $70M or so.

 

C Castro/Carver

1B Austin

2B Escobar

SS Polanco

3B Sano

LF Rosario

CF Buxton

RF Bruce

 

UT Astubillo

OF Cave

UT ???

(DH rotating)

 

SP Wheeler

SP Corbin

SP Berrios

SP Gibson

SP Pineda/Odorrizi

 

CL Kimbrel

LHSU Britton

RHSU May

LHRP Rogers

2RP 2 of Drake/Hildenberger/Magill/Mejia/De Jong/?

mop up Odorizzi/Pineda

 

Bada book. Bada boom

What on earth is Bada book Bada boom?

[ashbury]

What on earth is Bada book Bada boom?

An advertising takeoff on Bada Bing Bada Boom - i.e. quick clean and done.