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Article: An Offseason of Intrigue


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Quite often over their time here in Minnesota, the Twins have been noted as a small-market team unwilling to spend money. Fans have clamored for the Pohlads to open their wallets, and the desire for increasing payroll is one that has been felt throughout Twins Territory. In 2018 Derek Falvey and Thad Levine constructed a roster that boasted a club record $128.4MM spent. After a 78-win season, 2019’s roster will look different, which helps to set up an intriguing offseason.Last winter free agents were met with a depressed market. Despite some players holding out and still finding acceptable deals, there were plenty of solid names to be had late in the game. As organizations see results indicating mega-deals to players at or beyond 30 years of age aren’t good business, the sport has begun to take corrective action. For Minnesota, the acquisitions were mainly of the one-year variety, and it was a plan the front office has since reconsidered.

 

Going into 2019, opportunity is present largely due to Minnesota having the fourth lowest amount of committed money. Accounting for Ervin Santana’s $1MM buyout, the Twins have just $33.5MM in guaranteed salaries for next season. Obviously that number will rise with players arbitration and pre-arbitration values, but regardless, there’s a significant chunk of change to be spent. If the payroll gets to something like $60MM before any additions, the front office should have roughly $50-60MM at their disposal to acquire talent. So, how do they use it?

 

Looking at the free agent landscape this offseason, it’s hard not to stare directly at the top. No one knows yet where Bryce Harper or Manny Machado will go. Pitchers like Patrick Corbin and Dallas Keuchel headline available arms, but it falls off considerably behind them.

 

For Minnesota specifically, the greatest areas of improvement will be focused in the infield. Miguel Sano could stick at third, or he could be asked to take over for Joe Mauer at first base. Nick Gordon doesn’t yet appear ready for the big leagues, and Brian Dozier isn’t in the organization any longer. Although Jorge Polanco appears as though he can hold down short right now, there’s the possibility that a better option may exist.

 

Although it was a lost season for Byron Buxton, you’d have to consider it an upset if he’s not the Opening Day starter in center field. Eddie Rosario is entrenched as an All-Star, and Max Kepler is probably entering a make-or-break season. Jake Cave looks the part of a capable fourth outfielder, and the next emerging prospect could soon enter the picture. When shopping for talent, outfield doesn’t appear to be an area of great concern.

 

Falvey and Levine have helped to establish some relative pitching depth, which is something the Twins haven’t had in quite some time. With four of the rotation spots already accounted for, an upper echelon arm to take the fifth spot could make a good deal of sense. Michael Pineda didn’t debut in 2018 for the Twins, but that acquisition still looks like a worthwhile investment by the front office. With Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Zack Littell, and a handful of other prospects ready and waiting, there’s reason for optimism on the bump.

 

Really, what it all boils down to, is that the Twins need to knock this winter out of the park. After experiencing the level of turmoil this team did in 2018, a 78-win season is hardly bottoming out. Minnesota should be well positioned among the AL Central in 2019, and the competitionbelow them should continue to be lackluster.

Above them, Cleveland’s offseason path might be determined by their playoff performance. Starting the playoffs with a series against the World Champion Astros is no easy task. If you’re planning to bet one way or the other, Bovada will have the latest odds, so make sure to read their review if you’re looking to bet. However it goes, the Indians might conclude they need to add significant pieces now that they’re competing with the big boys.

 

The Twins are not at that level but we hope they will be, depending on the development of the likes of Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. That said, this offseason can help to supplement that core and carry the organization into the next era highlighted by Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff. If we saw anything from the Minnesota Twins and the divisional foes this season, it’s that this group isn’t all that far away. By locking down key talent both internally and externally, the corner could again be turned towards a situation of sustained excellence.

 

On paper, Falvey and Levine had a stellar offseason going into 2018. They can take the shortcomings that were revealed in game action and utilize that learning process to really nail it this time around. There are expectations now, and responsibility for meeting those expectations hinges on what happens over the next few months, and Minnesota fans should certainly buckle in for what should be an intriguing ride.

 

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That's the optimistic look for next season which could happen for the Twins.  We could also see that Buxton still doesn't hit and is defensive wiz but then hurts himself again. Sano can't keep from striking out and can't catch up to fastball from top pitchers and we find he is unable to play 3rd base without rest. Kepler may struggle again and look like he ready to breakout and we finally trade him somebody fixes him like they have with Hicks becomes all star. The starting pitching could be good but with position players not hitting enough were loosing again and front office thinks we should be sellers again so we trade Gibson, Ordorizzi, and Pineda for future prospects and we bring up these young pitchers to finish the season. I expect us to sign of couple one to two year free agents for not to much money to fill in our needs around the infield. Castro our catcher struggles to come back with few times on DL and then at trading deadline we also trade him. We will also be looking for few more DFA to be picked up to fill in during the season. This will be year we hear that were back to rebuild this club for the long term with expectation of next wave prospects to be coming in next couple of years with likes Royce Lewis, Gordon, Krilloff and few of pitching names will be the new saviors for the Twins. I think the optimistic view of the Twins is were just fooling ourselves look at this team we had on the field not many of these players would even crack line up the teams that are in playoffs. Molitor should have been considered manager of year again with team he had and circumstances he had to get 76 win season instead he gets fired. The future for this team is basically at A level in minor leagues and history tell us not many of these players make it. Also the level of money we have to spend is not as high as everyone thinks I willing to bet its closer to 30 million at best. Ownership and business side of the Twins will want to keep payroll more in the 70 to 80 million range not the 110 million range everyone is talking about. The clock is now ticking on this front office because they were given team with talent to win but failure to add talent and continue to develop that talent has put this window in jeopardy and may be vanishing because there belief they had to totally rebuild the whole organization. I may be all wrong but I think this Front office is all theory but no experience on how to put together baseball team and may have missed their chances to win because of this. This next year will determine a lot of this and surely the year after but we fans will have endure this experience.

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Despite the frustrating and disappointing 2018 season, I am actually optimistic about 2019. And in a big way! And no, I'm not wearing rise colored glasses! There were just SO MANY things that didn't work in 2018, despite some good efforts to augment the roster, that some level of normality should set in.

 

A healthy Buxton, hopefully a bit frustrated and pissed off, will work well with his new manager and hitting coach to just accept an even keeled approach at the plate and just work on contact and let his talent take over.

 

A seemingly dedicated Sano will continue to get in better shape and return to his former offensive self, but avoid nagging injuries that keep him out of the lineup and allow him to be the ever day solid/good defensive 3B he can be.

 

Kepler will balance his splits and let his over all ability to shine.

 

Polanco will play a full season, which ever position, and continue to show his bat.

 

Garver will continue to develop, while working with Castro, and emerge as the primary catcher.

 

Berrios and Gibson will continue. Berrios getting even better, and Gibson continuing to be solid. Romero is a potential stud. I expect Pineda and Odorizzi to be solid. There is some young depth as well. Don't let a few rough introduction appearances to cloud potential!

 

The FO made the moves they did last season, a bunch if 1 year deals, for a reason. They were hoping for the best by building on the surprising 2017 season, without handcuffing themselves. Deals this season, at least any major moves, will be for 2-3 year offers. The exception could be a veteran bat to bridge before a couple prospects arrive.

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If they had won just 3 more games they would have been at 500. Considering all that went wrong and that list is shockingly long, that's not bad. I think we'll find out what the future might look like for Sano and Buxton next year. Kepler too. One look at Sano in the spring will tell. They may not all pan out but 2 out of 3? Bats n bullpen this off-season. They've mentioned trades as well as longer free agent acquisitions. I'm excited for this long off-season. In my worst case scenario they are at least competitive with this core while the talent from below trickles in to maybe spark something. Sounds better than annual 100 L's!☺

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In all seriousness, I think the Twins should consider trading either Kepler or Rosario, depending on the return. Wade and Cave could hold down a corner until Kiriloff is ready to come up and the new piece could help us in areas where we are weaker than OF depth.

 

I haven't followed the Rays nearly enough this year to know but they have 4 MIers on their roster that put up some nice seasons with the bat in varying number of at-bats (Wendell 118 OPS+, Adames 109, Robertson 122, Lowe 112). I'm not sure if those four are even all still with the Rays, for that matter. But the Rays were interested in Kepler last year and might find a spot for him. But even if it's not the Rays, moving OF depth for IF help seems to make sense, unless the Twins are ready to go with a Gordon/Polanco MI out of the gate.

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Right now the key is how well Buxton and Sano perform next season. With Cave we have a reasonable plan B for Buxton. We need to get the checkbook out to find a Plan B for Sano. One of the distressing things about Sano is he appears to be injury prone. It's too early to David Ortiz him, but we can no longer count on the 30-40 bombs and 90-100 RBI'S many of us predicted. 

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The shopping list is surprisingly short:

One middle infielder

Two relievers

 

It is strange to talk about an off season where both starting pitcher and catcher are both fairly well set.

 

By the way, how competent is Rosario at third? This would allow Cave to be a third rather than fourth OFer.

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In all seriousness, I think the Twins should consider trading either Kepler or Rosario, depending on the return. Wade and Cave could hold down a corner until Kiriloff is ready to come up and the new piece could help us in areas where we are weaker than OF depth.

 

I haven't followed the Rays nearly enough this year to know but they have 4 MIers on their roster that put up some nice seasons with the bat in varying number of at-bats (Wendell 118 OPS+, Adames 109, Robertson 122, Lowe 112). I'm not sure if those four are even all still with the Rays, for that matter. But the Rays were interested in Kepler last year and might find a spot for him. But even if it's not the Rays, moving OF depth for IF help seems to make sense, unless the Twins are ready to go with a Gordon/Polanco MI out of the gate.

 

Trade Rosario??

I am going to have to strongly disagree with this kind of thinking. Always playing for the future sucks. "Our prospects will take over!!" Or, "let's play some 5th outfielder fodder and try to pass them off as major league corner outfielders? Don't like it.

 

Here you have an above average outfielder that is a hell of a hitter, he's young. plays with fire every game and you want to move him? Kiriloff, if you haven't noticed is in A ball. Might he make it and be better than Rosario? Yes, he might, but chances are he WON'T. 

 

Kepler? Why move him for what will probably amount to a bench player type? Because that is all he is worth on the open market. I'm sick of getting smoked in every trade we make. 

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Next to the bullpen, our infield should be our biggest concern. For starters, we have no other 3rd base options beyond Sano, so we should probably sign/aquire an alternative option just in case. And depending on whether or not Sano actually moves to 1st next year, Tyler Austin could be our starting 1st baseman, which is something I don’t feel comfortable about. Same goes for the middle infield, as we need a stopgap at either 2nd or SS, depending on FO’s confidence in Polanco’s glove.

 

Obviously, signing FA is most conventional way of shoring up a roster, but with the unpredictability of this young team we shouldn’t ‘just’ throw money at the problem, we should be out on the trade market monitoring players that teams are looking to “dump” in favor of younger players or a FA like Machado.

 

Free Agents:

Jose Iglesias

Freddy Galvis

Josh Harrison

Jordy Mercer

 

Trade Options:

Justin Smoak

Aledmys Diaz

Maikel Franco

Dee Gordon

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The Twins don't have to trade anybody to get better if they don't want to. They have $69,000,000 coming off the books this year, more than half of the 2018 payroll. They have a huge wad of cash to spend if they just simply want to spend the same as last year.

 

The team doesn't have many needs so they can get three or four beefy players with that $69M and stop dinking around on the margins.

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The Twins don't have to trade anybody to get better if they don't want to. They have $69,000,000 coming off the books this year, more than half of the 2018 payroll. They have a huge wad of cash to spend if they just simply want to spend the same as last year.

 

The team doesn't have many needs so they can get three or four beefy players with that $69M and stop dinking around on the margins.

I'm on board with this. Spend the same as last year and bring in some lumber. If they're worried about a roster of one year mercenaries then carefully pick one prime addition for a longer 2-3 year deal.

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Trade Rosario??

...

 

Kepler? Why move him for what will probably amount to a bench player type? Because that is all he is worth on the open market. I'm sick of getting smoked in every trade we make. 

We could trade Kepler or Rosario because that's a position of depth for us and, frankly, the Pohlad's aren't gong to pay to keep the nucleus around. Kepler will be 26 next year, Rosario 27 and both are entering their arbitration years.

 

Notice I also said, "depending on the return" for them. I didn't suggest giving Rosario away. I like him a lot and am also willing to let him try third base. He's probably our strongest trade chip - his bat has been good for a couple years now and the defensive metrics decided to like him this year, most likely b/c Buxton wasn't in center rather than any actual change to his game.

 

I'm also ok if the Twins don't move those two. But they should at least see what the market is for them.

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The comment about "one look at Sano in spring" was spot on. A Sano at an actual 260 is a different player, whether at first or third. As will be a healthy Buxton in the OF. The team needs a defensive SS so it can move Polanco to second. You cannot win consistently with the middle IF defense they put out there last year. Without kicking Molitor when he is down, anyone interested in the long term health of the team would have stuck Polanco at second base for the last month, to see if he could play the postion better than he does SS. There is an old baseball axiom, if you can hit they will find you a place to play. The guy who came up with that likely never envisioned it would be SS. The Twins don't need as much as some think, they need the players they have to play to their potential. Assuming that Mauer leaves they need a third baseman, a SS, and a backup plan at catcher. Castro is coming off knee surgery, and Garver is simply another player who is playing a defensive position because he can hit. Baseball has changed a lot, but no matter how hard it tries, if you can't catch a baseball when you are in the middle of the diamond, you are not going to win.

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2019 success or failure can not hinge on Sano and Buxton.  We all want Miguel Sano to be the next Miguel Cabrera but he could just be another Oswaldo Arcia or Yosmani Tomas.  Byron Buxton may only be as good as Keon Broxton.  Both Sano and Buxton should start the season in Rochester and should be told they will need to force their way to the MLB 25 man roster by becoming more disciplined at the plate.  Take more walks and less Ks.  Hit to all fields....

 

2019 needs to be about improved pitching and defense.  In 2018, the Twins were 21st in team pitching and 20th in defense.  Polanco is not the answer at SS.  Lewis and Gordon are not ready yet.  #1 move is to acquire FA SS Jose Iglesias and move Polanco to 2nd.  Make Adrianza the regular 3rd baseman because he had the best advanced fielding stats of any 3rd baseman in all of baseball in 2018. This infield has the gloves needed to excel when utilizing the shifts that are now common.  1B is a platoon position with Tyler Austin and FA acquisition #2 Matt Adams.  Castro/Garver/Astudillo all make the 25 man roster.  Astudillo can play 3rd or LF on occasion to get another RH bat in the lineup against LHP.

 

Rosario/Cave/Kepler can patrol the OF on a regular basis.  Keep Grossman as the 4th OF and use him primarily against LHP(see splits).  Might also give Tyler Austin some additional fielding practice at the corner OF spots to see if he can improve enough to be useful.  Keeps hit bat in the lineup against LHP should Sano push his way back and take time at 1B.

 

Berrios/Gibson/Odorizzi are a nice start to a rotation.  Not sure what we will get from Pineda.  Several AAA guys are close to stepping up.  FA add #3 is Charlie Morton who still has game at age 35 and will likely not break the bank or get anything long term.

 

Adding a bonafide closer is FA move #4.  Jeurys Familia would make a nice anchor to a bullpen that will include Rogers and May as 7th/8th inning guys.  The AAA starter that shows he is most ready in spring training gets a spot in the pen as long reliever/spot starter(Pineda may not be ready to go 5+).  Reed will be back(contract) and probably not good.  Other spots are open for the taking with many in-house candidates(mostly mediocre).  Add a couple battle tested situational vets.

 

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Trade for:

 

SP Zack Wheeler & OF/DH Jay Bruce  (Gonsalves, Kepler, Gordon, ?)

 

Sign:

SP Patrick Corbin (4/80)

 

IF Eduardo Escobar or Asdrúbal Cabrera (3/18 or 2/10)

 

CL Craig Kimbrel (3/45)
LHSU Zach Britton (2/20)

 

Net ~ + $70M or so.

 

C Castro/Carver

1B Austin

2B Escobar

SS Polanco

3B Sano

LF Rosario

CF Buxton

RF Bruce

 

UT Astubillo
OF Cave

UT ???

(DH rotating)

 

SP Wheeler

SP Corbin

SP Berrios

SP Gibson

SP Pineda/Odorrizi

 

CL Kimbrel 
LHSU Britton 

RHSU May

LHRP Rogers

2RP 2 of Drake/Hildenberger/Magill/Mejia/De Jong/?

mop up Odorizzi/Pineda

 

Bada book. Bada boom

Edited by Thrylos
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2019 success or failure can not hinge on Sano and Buxton.  We all want Miguel Sano to be the next Miguel Cabrera but he could just be another Oswaldo Arcia or Yosmani Tomas.  Byron Buxton may only be as good as Keon Broxton.  Both Sano and Buxton should start the season in Rochester and should be told they will need to force their way to the MLB 25 man roster by becoming more disciplined at the plate.  Take more walks and less Ks.  Hit to all fields....

 

2019 needs to be about improved pitching and defense.  In 2018, the Twins were 21st in team pitching and 20th in defense.  Polanco is not the answer at SS.  Lewis and Gordon are not ready yet.  #1 move is to acquire FA SS Jose Iglesias and move Polanco to 2nd.  Make Adrianza the regular 3rd baseman because he had the best advanced fielding stats of any 3rd baseman in all of baseball in 2018. This infield has the gloves needed to excel when utilizing the shifts that are now common.  1B is a platoon position with Tyler Austin and FA acquisition #2 Matt Adams.  Castro/Garver/Astudillo all make the 25 man roster.  Astudillo can play 3rd or LF on occasion to get another RH bat in the lineup against LHP.

 

Rosario/Cave/Kepler can patrol the OF on a regular basis.  Keep Grossman as the 4th OF and use him primarily against LHP(see splits).  Might also give Tyler Austin some additional fielding practice at the corner OF spots to see if he can improve enough to be useful.  Keeps hit bat in the lineup against LHP should Sano push his way back and take time at 1B.

 

Berrios/Gibson/Odorizzi are a nice start to a rotation.  Not sure what we will get from Pineda.  Several AAA guys are close to stepping up.  FA add #3 is Charlie Morton who still has game at age 35 and will likely not break the bank or get anything long term.

 

Adding a bonafide closer is FA move #4.  Jeurys Familia would make a nice anchor to a bullpen that will include Rogers and May as 7th/8th inning guys.  The AAA starter that shows he is most ready in spring training gets a spot in the pen as long reliever/spot starter(Pineda may not be ready to go 5+).  Reed will be back(contract) and probably not good.  Other spots are open for the taking with many in-house candidates(mostly mediocre).  Add a couple battle tested situational vets.

 

Good post

 

Well thought and I am inches from agreeing. Of course those inches mean slight adjustments.  :)

 

Almost agree with you on Buxton and Sano. Make them earn their way back I am in total agreement. I wouldn't have a big problem with them starting in Rochester but I would probably give them a spot on the 25 man. Either way I'm OK as long as they are not named opening day starters as the team attempts to build around them. 

 

If you are going to name Adrianaza the 3B based on defense... I'd pencil him in at SS instead and then focus on a 3B with some Pop. That will limit you to one light hitter on that side of the diamond. 

 

Grossman... I don't hate him like others on this website. I think he contributes but I would truly rather see the Twins go get a OF with Defense and Pop and move on from Grossman. 

 

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Riverbrian

 

I know Adrianza at 3b is unconventional. Traditionally you want more power and will accept a defender with less range at that position. I believe the new defensive trend toward shifting makes a 3b with SS range a much more valuable asset than ever. Adrianza will hit .250-.260 and steal a few bases. If he can take a few more walks his OBP will make him an offensive neutral player. His glove plays better than Escobar at third. I am not ready to spend for power at third just yet as I have not completely given up on Sano yet.

 

I am not a big Robbie Grossman fan but I keep him for now because his .325 avg. as a RH hitter and his OBP are valuable. Grossman shows the younger hitters the value of staying patient and making the pitcher work. If Buxton figures it out at AAA, I have an easier time DFAing Grossman than any other Outfielder.

 

I think this team hits 160-180 hrs. More power at 1b, less at 3b and about the same everywhere else. Probably scores a few more runs by striking out less and putting more balls in play. Better pitching and defense wins 5-10 more games in 2019. Probably not enough to make the playoffs. Much better if Sano and Buxton figure it out but I’m not holding my breath.

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Adrianza is the back up infielder. Any role greater than that is a failure by the front office.  Escobar back as the super utility guy and Adrianza as your disaster backup in AAA is even better. With Grossman he is 29. Long ago he should have developed himself as a serviceable outfielder. . A .750 OPS is not a bad bat, but not as a bat first player.  If he could hit like 2016 he would be an unusual but decent DH/emergency OF. Does the club offers him arbitration ? Doing that would mean they do not think they can find better or thinking about Kepler as a trade chip.

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Admittedly did not read every word of every post but I did not see one word about getting the right MANAGER. That is item number one. If they hire another "players manager", they could sign Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax and it won't make any difference . The idea of the Twins getting either Harper or Machado is comedians' material and another long term contract with either could be another disaster. I hope the Yankees blow about $100mil (minimum) on Harper because I truly believe his best years are already behind him. Twins need to focus on starting pitching and hope that young talent can finally come through. The free agent position player route will not work.

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You don't trade guys like Eddie, you try to find other guys like him..

 

 

EE.... answer the phone

 

This is how Twins position players ranked by OPS for the 2nd half off the season (After 6/30)

 

Grossman ----- .852
Garver --------- .823
Cave ----------- .815
Polanco -------- .773
Kepler --------- .756
Mauer --------- .729
Forsythe ------ .648
Rosario  ------- .642

 

Rosario's plate disciple is not existent at times and teams adjusted how they pitch to him. I had a man crush on this guy ever since I watched him in the Arizona Fall Championship but I am tired of watching his horrible ABs. Will he develop the discipline necessary to be a top player? I don't know and I am not sure we would get a big return for him because Al teams have learned how to nullify him. 

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We could trade Kepler or Rosario because that's a position of depth for us 

 

What depth is that of what you speak? Buxton? Kepler? Cave? So far none of them are better than average or below average outfield pieces. Rosario is the best hitter in this lineup and plays a good outfield. The outfielders you are counting as depth are either in the minors, or play at best at a replacement level. Aim higher for once, seriously. It would be one thing if Kiriloff was up here and producing, but the guy hasn't played about A ball. There is as good a chance he flops, than he is a major league starter capable of playing as good or better than Rosario.

 

Trading Rosario only happens for me if you get an ace pitcher back. That is it, he is untouchable in my eyes. Rosario + Gordon or something for Degrom? Maybe then, but that's about it. You know that won't happen. I would see the offer for him being some kind of BS prospect and a middling type ballplayer. Not worth it. Go for high end talent or go home.

 

Kepler, I just don't see him bringing back enough to make it worth trading him. He is worth more to us than anyone else. 

Edited by Battle ur tail off
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This is how Twins position players ranked by OPS for the 2nd half off the season (After 6/30)

 

Grossman ----- .852
Garver --------- .823
Cave ----------- .815
Polanco -------- .773
Kepler --------- .756
Mauer --------- .729
Forsythe ------ .648
Rosario  ------- .642

 

Rosario's plate disciple is not existent at times and teams adjusted how they pitch to him. I had a man crush on this guy ever since I watched him in the Arizona Fall Championship but I am tired of watching his horrible ABs. Will he develop the discipline necessary to be a top player? I don't know and I am not sure we would get a big return for him because Al teams have learned how to nullify him. 

 

False, you are cherry picking to make him look bad. Look at his career numbers. Then realize he's got a cannon for an arm and plays his ass off every game. He's slugged around .500 the last few seasons. The guy has serious pop in his bat. 

 

I will give you the plate discipline, but here you have a corner outfielder with pop, plays pretty good defense and is in his prime. 

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