Article: A Refreshing Shift in Twins Territory

[The Wise One]

Because this should be the team’s goal?

In 2019 or ever?

IMO, if the best they can do is “probably” be above .500 and have a shot, I’d rather sell Rosario, Gibson and Odorizzi and go full rebuild.

I’ve said this before, but IMO the only way this core of players contends for a title is if Sano and Buxton are 5-6 bWAR players and they either acquire or develop a legitimate ace starting pitcher.

. Selling Gibson or Odorizzi nets you nothing. If you are trading outfielders with 3 years of control why bother calling it a rebuild call it being a farm system for other teams With all the talentMiami traded away no top 20 prospects came back.

[yarnivek1972]

. Selling Gibson or Odorizzi nets you nothing. If you are trading outfielders with 3 years of control why bother calling it a rebuild call it being a farm system for other teams With all the talentMiami traded away no top 20 prospects came back.

The Twins received a guy who likely will be their primary first baseman in 2019 for 2 months of Lance Lynn. I’d think a full season of Gibson and Odorizzi would net them quite a bit more.

 

If next year is another lost season, which was the assumption used to justify the moves, that would leave Rosario with two remaining years of control and the Twins still without an ace.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think by "covered" Ted is suggesting that for the first time in a long while we don't have the same kinds of desperate needs to sign a starter. There's a legitimate possibility that the twins could cover their starting pitching through internal assets, which is something that would have been ridiculous to state as recently as a year ago.

 

I'm sure the Twins will explore adding another starter, and almost certainly one that would fit closer to the top than the bottom. But part of the point here is we don't have a team that absolutely needs to sign a back of the rotation guy just to be able to fill out the staff. That's a good thing and a real improvement.

 

I'm not in the "we need an ace or it's all a bust!" mode that some Twins fans seem to be in. I'd be happy to add a guy who falls into the category of "better than Kyle Gibson" if we can't sign one of the upper-upper-echelon guys; there has to be a realization that there are very few of those and betting the house on landing one isn't much of a strategy.

I'm not against adding a starter, but I think they will have to do it using the surplus of talent at AAA. We have way too many with the options clock ticking, at which point they will be worth a lot less. I'm not sure those guys on their own though will get the type of starter that we want though. 

[ewen21]

 Chasing down "an ace" is a fool's errand for almost every team most years for myriad reasons unless you are a contender looking for that additional piece to put you over the top.  Getting "an ace" adds no assurances:

1.  Pitchers are very much year to year.  The likelihood of injury and a guy having down years is very high.

2.  Most pitchers considered to be "an ace" are getting on the other side of the hill (if they aren't there already)

3. We are not by any strech contenders so this is not a one player fix.

4. We had an ace in Johan Santana and that didn't exactly get us far in the playoffs.  The problem was we could not hit in those series.  Go back and look it up if you don't believe me.

 

I am tired of all this "gotta get an ace" junk.  All those who screamed about Darvish, how did that one work out?

While I think Ted is overly optimistic, I don't see pitching as a big problem next year.  2019 is a big BIG year for the development of some young arms.  Then again, if Buxton, Sano and Kepler are dogs again we can forget about 2019.  All three of them need to play very well for us to have any shot

[The Wise One]

The Twins received a guy who likely will be their primary first baseman in 2019 for 2 months of Lance Lynn. I’d think a full season of Gibson and Odorizzi would net them quite a bit more.

If next year is another lost season, which was the assumption used to justify the moves, that would leave Rosario with two remaining years of control and the Twins still without an ace.

You can think pitchers with career metrics around a half a run worse Lynn’s would bring more in trade but you would be wrong as you forgot about the cash and the Yankee need to move on some prospects Rosario netting an ace pitcher is a long shot.

[The Wise One]

I'm not against adding a starter, but I think they will have to do it using the surplus of talent at AAA. We have way too many with the options clock ticking, at which point they will be worth a lot less. I'm not sure those guys on their own though will get the type of starter that we want though.

 

. Surplus of talent at AAA. Buxton, Reed and Anderson will net what kind of starter? If it is not Including Buxton the rest of what was not called up might get you another Kohl Stewart

[bird]

 

In general, every team should be trying to improve every area over the winter. Standing still is how you get passed.

 

In the case of the Twins, I don't agree the Twins "have the bump covered." None of Stewart/Gonsalves/Littell should be counted on for a single productive MLB inning. Same for Pineda. They'll all likely get a chance to prove themselves, because a team doesn't just use 5 starters, but they should all be fallback options, not primary ones. I hope the Twins are looking to add, at the TOP of the rotation, at least one starter. 

 

Concur. The FO presented this season to us with the exact same problem as before: no front-line starter to anchor the rotation, but instead a handful of guys who MIGHT give you some #2 type performance and might not. And no reliever that could be safely viewed as a high-leverage shut-down guy.

 

This FO knows numbers, and they played the numbers game. Let's hope they count the right thing this winter by counting how much room there is in the budget and how much mediocre "depth" they have that should not be counted on. Don't count on "pleasant surprises", Mr. Falvey. Jake Cave and Mr. Magill don't move the needle at all.

[KirbyDome89]

That's a lot of love for Pineda and Odorizzi. 

 

Pineda hasn't started 20 games in a season since 15', he's coming off TJ, and he's already been injured during his rehab. I hope the Twins aren't relying on him as a significant contributor. 

 

Odorizzi has turned in a few good starts in his last 5 or 6 games but he's been largely the same pitcher all season. He doesn't throw enough strikes, he struggles to get through five innings, and he can't face a lineup three times through. If he's your fifth starter you live with it. 

 

Gibson has been a solid middle of the rotation arm this season, Berrios is a lock, and Romero shows promise but beyond that things are hardly settled. The goal shouldn't be to bank on the best possible outcome. This unit is far from ok.  

[Thrylos]

 

Agreed. The Twins have a #2 in Berrios, a #3 in Gibson and a #4/5 in Odorizzi/  At best, Pineda is the second #4/#5. We need a top of the rotation guy, can live with a #2 if Berrios steps up one more level. I think he can and he will. We need a Patrick Corbin, Dalls Kuechel, Nathan Evoldi type free agent. or a trade for someone like Degrom, Syndegaard or maybe even Jose Ureas of the Marlins. Free agency is the only really available route - we don't have the assets to get one of htose guys unless we're willing ot trade guys like Romero plus a Lewis or Kirilof. Not happening. 

 

So what's the plan?  I'm guessing it's the hope that Berrios drops his ERA/FIP another half a run to be the ace, Gibson is the 2, Pineda, the 3, and Odorizzi plus one of the young guys really step up as the 4 and 5. Not a great plan.  Go Get Patrick Corbin. 

 

I agree with the assessment of the Twins' talent (other than Berrios might be a #3 because of this home/away and 1st half/2nd half splits).   However they need more than that.

 

They need a pitching staff that will match up with Boston or Houston and give them a chance to win on each game.

That is not just one pitcher away.

[Doctor Wu]

I thought the Pineda signing was a savvy one. I'm a patient guy. But I'm also disappointed that he got injured again and couldn't pitch a few games, even out of the bullpen, for the Twins this year. As for next year, can we honestly expect him to contribute? That would be wonderful, but at this point I'm not counting my chickens.

[bird]

 

No one's got a monopoly on clear-eyed recognition of reality.

 

 

It may not be a monopoly, but I don't have much competition either. 

[terrydactyls]

It still amuses (and irritates) me that so many commentators simplistically say "just go out and sign an Ace." Free agency is a two-sided negotiation, not a trip to Walmart to pik up somthing you need. If I were an Ace, I would look very closely at the mediocre outfield defense (especially without Buxton) and the potentially terrible infield defense (especially if Mauer retires) of the 2019 Twins, and decide the money isn't worth the severe damage to my career statistically. If a possible contender with a solid defense offered me a package similar to a Twins' offer, but a couple million a year less ($12 instead of $15), I would take it. At that level of financial security (and including the tax implications), the chance at a world series title would take me elsewhere. So what can be done to change this? Try to sign the best defensive shortstop you can and move Polanco to 2B. Try to get a decision from Mauer as quickly as possible so you can figure out the 1B, 3B, and DH situation and hopefully factor defense into the decision. Now you can at least approach the top tier free agent pitchers and show them that they will have a great infield defense behind. Oh yeah, and lie through your teeth that a cure for Buxton's hitting problems has been discovered by the Mayo Clinic and he will be back in center field for 160 games for the next ten years. Then maybe I'll sign with the Twins.

[caninatl04]

"Any arm brought in should be at the quality of Gibson and Odorizzi or better."

You mean like Lance Lynn?

Yes! At the time, it was a good move. As it turned out, we got some prospects.

[Major League Ready]

 

I'm optimistic about these guys, but if they all do well the Twins are still missing a bona fide ace.

 

If the Twins want to win a playoff game against the Yankees, Red Sox, or Astros, they will need an ace, and I consider the "win one playoff game" bar to be very low. Any other move, in absence of a move that acquires an ace, is pointless.

 

If you look at how ALL of the teams outside the top 10 in revenue acquired an "Ace" it was almost exclusively a trade when the player was still a prospect or developed them internally. (see Cleveland) I posted the last 20 years of FAs a year or two ago in this site. The only semi-reasonable comparison is Scherzer and the Nats incremental revenue over the Twins covers his salary. Some like to use Grienke as an example but they had just signed a $1.5 BILLION TV contract so unless the Twins triple their TV revenue it's hardly a reasonable comparison. If somehow they got it done, great but it's not a reasonable to expect it I simply don't agree that signing a "2" is pointless. This team would be considerably better adding a legit #2.

 

The only other way to get an ace would be to pay a kings randsom to a rebuilding team. It would expect it would take something like Kirilloff plus Romero or Graterol + Gonsalves or Stewart + Wade or Blankenhorn. To go all-in given the state of team would be absolute incompetence.

 

I am all for adding legit #2 through free agency. If they could get this done plus a couple BP arms through FA or trade it would be a good off-season. We also need a good middle infielder and the FA options are not good but Iglesias is a decent FA add or perhaps they can get a decent middle infielder by trading depth without giving up Kirilloff / Lewis or Romero / Lewis. A #2 + two good BP arms and a middle infielder would have me a great off-season and we would be positioned to have a realistic chance of winning the division.