Max Kepler: Trade or Keep?

[Winston Smith]

 

Heh, don't trade young guys that are down, they have no value. Don't trade young guys that are good, they are part of the future. don't trade minor leaguers for veterans, because then you can't sustain competitiveness. Don't sign SPs to long term deals, too risky.....Don't sign position players to long term deals, because they won't be good at the end......

 

How do people expect to get a good team here?

Keep bringing back the same guys that haven't been getting the job done makes the most sense.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Keep bringing back the same guys that haven't been getting the job done makes the most sense.

 

That does seem to be the plan I'm reading the most right now. I hope the FO does not agree.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

He's still got 4 years of team control, but he should be arbitration eligible this winter as a super 2. Plouffe got close to $20 mil total through 4 years of arbitration.

Peanuts.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

If your outgo exceeds your income,

 

Then your upkeep will be your downfall.  

[ChrisKnutson]

Doesn't matter. PTBNL is all he is worth. Keep or demote to minor leagues is all you have for options with him. You guys want to trade people, you have to bring something of value if you want anything worthwhile back. Otherwise, it is just a exercise in futility.

Look, what you’re saying makes sense and all, but there’s no denying that Cave’s “sneaky power” in a 4th OF role is worth more than just a PTBNL. Realistically, Cave’s value equates to a prospect located at bottom-half of an organization’s top 30.

[Physics Guy]

Keep him.  He's stil relatively young and I feel like he can still OPS north of .800.  I don't think he would garner much in trades, but has significant value defensively for a team that can't rely on Buxton yet.  In another thread I suggested bringing AJ Pollock.  If they did that it would offer more flexibility and allow Kepler to get some work at 1B and relegate Cave to AAA.

[DocBauer]

Unless he's part of a package to bring in a prime player, like a top of the rotation SP, you absolutely keep him!

 

I know the "he's young" argument sounds a bit hollow these days after a disappointing season. But it's still true in regard to Kepler and some of the rest of the nucleus of this team.

 

Kepler is a very good RF and solid CF. He practically skipped AAA and even when signed out of Germany was probably a year behind a US prospect of the same age. (Repeating myself I know). But for his first 2 years he hit RH well but not LH. This year he suddenly hit LH but not RH. There is every reason to believe, IMO, that 2019 could be the season his splits level out and he takes the next jump.

 

Hunter was rushed and took time. Gomez was rushed and took time. Hicks was rushed and took time. Why on earth would we want to part with a player of Kepler's potential at this point? (Unless, again, part of a big package deal).

[DocBauer]

Side note: I do wonder, when Rooker and Khirriloff arrive who might make the best RF, 1B, DH options. Could see a rotation of some sort between them.

[Physics Guy]

 

Side note: I do wonder, when Rooker and Khirriloff arrive who might make the best RF, 1B, DH options. Could see a rotation of some sort between them.

Not much question from what I can tell:

Kepler RF, Kirilloff 1B, Rooker DH

[Rosterman]

You gotta keep him at least another season to see if you can improve his value.

[Lonestar]

 

There are people on this list that produce just as much if not more WAR than Kepler this season.

Corner OF is not a premium defensive position and lots of players are capable of playing the position on a given day. It's one of the few spots on the field where you can sacrifice defensive ability for a really good bat.

Who on that list is going to put up more than Kepler's 2.5 WAR (or whatever measure of value you choose) this year? Can they play CF?

 

How many WAR do you think Kepler will put up next year? Or the next 4 years?

 

How many years will they require? What will their performance look like throughout that term?

 

How much more are they going to cost than Max's Super 2 salary?  What do you think Max's salary will be next year?

 

As is, the Twins have about $54M in salary cap space next year. Paying more for Kepler's position will eat into that. How are you going to afford a front-line starter candidate, a shutdown reliever or 2 or 3, a 2B/SS, a 1B and/or 3B (whatever Sano doesn't play).

 

Who are you going to trade for? What's their expected WAR or other value?

 

[Tomj14]

 

Him and Garver and a medium SP for JT.....who says no? I think that's not enough for JT.....throw in one of the lottery ticket types? Still probably not enough.....

 

Kiriloff, Wade, Rooker, Baddoo, random FA.....all are options next year or the year after......

 

I doubt his value is HIGH right now, but if you can package him for a legit SS or C that is around for 3+ years, I do that. Lewis or that SS can always move to OF or 3B.......or even 2B......

I don't think that is enough, but the Twins have about 20 future all stars in the minors (that's what I hear on this site) so adding a couple of the amazing prospects that we got this year to that offer should be enough for JT.

[DocBauer]

Not much question from what I can tell:

Kepler RF, Kirilloff 1B, Rooker DH

I agree with this, with each still able to provide flexibility to play daily at the other spots as well. Increases roster flexibility. My father, a good baseball man and lifelong Twins observer and fan, has speculated Kepler at 1B might become an even better hitter as a primary 1B, being closer, an an observer, to viewing the pitch by pitch action. Just an interesting thought.

[Danchat]

I've been in a state of disappointment for about 15 or so months with Kepler, but I can't see what we'd get for him if traded. He's a great defender and can hold his own in CF (which is desperately needed with Buxton's inability to hit/be healthy), takes plenty of walks, but he just doesn't get many hits. Too many soft fly balls. He's one of the more underwhelming 2 WAR players, but he still has the chance to get better. I'm not sure if he'll be on the team in 2020 but I'd give him one more shot in 2019.

[Twins33]

Keep. I am admittedly gun shy on trading any of the OF guys. Why? Because of what happened when the Twins tried to turn over CF to Hicks and then to Buxton. They were not prepared

 

Kirilloff is obviously not ready. Cave and Wade are fourth outfielders. I'd trade Kepler if they're replacing him with a guy who has been a proven above average MLB player for at least the last three years. And I wouldn't care if that player was a FA or coming here in a trade.

 

I'm for improving the team as long as the plan is not "hand over a starting position to Cave/Wade" especially when we have no idea how Buxton will do next year. That just leads to disaster.

[mngopherguy]

I start thinking about possibly trading him after next year when we have an idea of how the guys on the farm handle AA/AAA.  They are too far away right now for me to move anyone for them.

[mngopherguy]

 

2. I'm not sure Kepler's WAR value translates to 1B. As we see with Mauer, you can be one of the best defensive 1B in all of baseball, but if you're a .730 OPS player you're average or below average in the MLB.

 

 

When putting together a line up, I could careless what defensive position the guys are playing.  All that matters is they fit into the line up.  

[less cowbell more neau]

 

Keep, unless the Twins are morphing into a perpetual rebuilding motion machine, in which case it doesn't matter.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Keep him. His defensive value helps the team more than Rosario's does in some ways.

[alarp33]

 

Heh, don't trade young guys that are down, they have no value. Don't trade young guys that are good, they are part of the future. don't trade minor leaguers for veterans, because then you can't sustain competitiveness. Don't sign SPs to long term deals, too risky.....Don't sign position players to long term deals, because they won't be good at the end......

 

How do people expect to get a good team here?

 

Obviously you're generalizing quite a bit here.  All of those statements could be true at certain points, but it doesn't mean they are all always true. It depends on the Major League team and assets on the roster, its not as simple as making a blanket statement like that. 

 

Not trading young guys with talent who are down with no value, that should always be the case, whether its on a 100 win team or 65 win team

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd say it depends on the offer, but in reality, he stays.

 

Problem one is that there's no apparent replacement. AK is at least a year away. This might be a conversation next offseason if AK puts up similar numbers in AA/AAA or if both Buxton and Cave break out in a big way next year. I think the odds of Buxton and Cave breaking out aren't as low as some around here think, but I certainly wouldn't bet my job on that if I were the FO. 

 

Problem two is that while he's improving, it's been slow and steady. I think Kepler can still be very good. I agree with others that his return isn't worth playing him another season. He's going to get pushed if he doesn't improve. He has talent/age to be a 4-5 WAR guy though, and I think it would be wise to be patient with him. I think Kepler is closer to breaking out at the plate than Buxton. 

 

Bottom line, I think you'd have to blow me away. If Jeter wanted Kepler for Realmutto straight up, I'd do that. Florida wont, nor will anyone else.  I'm just pointing out that I don't think Kepler will get enough to make me trade him. We've hitched our wagon there. I think he's here another year, and I think at that point, this is something to be seriously valuated. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

The FO needs to find

 

A front of the rotation pitcher

 

1-2 bullpen arms

 

First base (or move Sano and find 3rd)

 

Second Base (or move Polanco and find SS)

 

Catcher (I love Astudillo as a 3rd catcher utility guy, Garver could be the guy, or first base.... Castro and knee injuries leaves me concerned)

 

Probably a corner OF with Kepler as CF and Cave as 4th OF.

 

That’s 25% of the Active roster already.

 

Trades should be prospects to acquire big leaguers or close to big leaguers. Unless you really get blown away on a big leaguer like Kepler/Buxton/Rosario/Polanco/Sano where you could transform the franchise

[Tomj14]

 

Problem two is that while he's improving, it's been slow and steady. I think Kepler can still be very good. I agree with others that his return isn't worth playing him another season. He's going to get pushed if he doesn't improve. He has talent/age to be a 4-5 WAR guy though, and I think it would be wise to be patient with him. I think Kepler is closer to breaking out at the plate than Buxton. 

 

Right now there are 35 hitters in the majors at or over 4 WAR (ESPN) maybe 5 more that could get there. and 20 over 5.

Does everybody think that Kepler can be a top 40 major league hitter?

JT is sitting at 4.5 which is 23rd in baseball and 1.5 higher than the next catcher.

If anybody thinks that Kepler alone is getting him they are crazy, he is a good start, but the Twins would have to get up a couple other top prospects as well. Which I am all for.

 

[Shaitan]

 

With Kiriloff on the way, is Kepler worth keeping? Would the Twins be better off trading him for help at other positions of need?

 

Kiriloff has 0 AA at bats. Nothing to see here.

 

 

[clone52]

 

Him and Garver and a medium SP for JT.....who says no? I think that's not enough for JT.....throw in one of the lottery ticket types? Still probably not enough.....

 

Kiriloff, Wade, Rooker, Baddoo, random FA.....all are options next year or the year after......

 

I doubt his value is HIGH right now, but if you can package him for a legit SS or C that is around for 3+ years, I do that. Lewis or that SS can always move to OF or 3B.......or even 2B......

 

Marlins are not going to take average major leaguers for JT.  Unless it starts with Royce or Kiriloff, it ain't going to happen.

[Vanimal46]

When putting together a line up, I could careless what defensive position the guys are playing. All that matters is they fit into the line up.

I strongly disagree with this. Players playing out of position is going to affect their value in a negative way.

[Vanimal46]

And if I didn't make it clear before, I would use Kepler in a package deal (preferably with Gordon) to acquire a premium position player, whether that's C, SP, CF, or SS.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Marlins are not going to take average major leaguers for JT.  Unless it starts with Royce or Kiriloff, it ain't going to happen.

 

I agree, that's more than 90% likely true. Alas.

[USAFChief]

Yes. Definately.

[twinfan]

I thought Kepler was hitting lefties better this season yet his BA is in the low 200s and his HR rate is in the teens. I hope he gets better next year but don't hold out much hope- at least not with us. Target Field is not good for him. Plus we do not have anyone really ready to take over. I like Cave out there and Buxton should return so Kepler becomes a player vs righties at least. Nobody likes Grossman here though he at least is around 250. I'd keep him and hope he can still improve. After all, Kirby didn't hit much power in his first couple of years.