Article: KC 6, MIN 4: Coming Down is the Hardest Thing

[Tom Froemming]

What a high the Twins were on. They beat up on the Yankees 10-5 Tuesday night thanks to a Joe Mauer grand slam, then bested them again Wednesday night 3-1 behind a near no-hit effort from Jake Oddorizzi in what may have been their best-played game all season.

 

Heading to Kansas City was going to be a piece of cake, right? Wrong. Let’s just say this one will not be mentioned among their better performances of the season.Snapshot (chart via FanGraphs)

Home Runs: Cave (11)

Multi-Hit Games: Cave (2-for-4, HR)

WPA of 0.1 or higher: Moya .104

WPA of -0.1 or lower: Busenitz -.437

Download attachment: WinChart913.png

The Twins went with the opener/primary picher strategy again today. Any time they roll that out I like to give an overview on how everything worked its way out from the top down.

 

Gabriel Moya was the opener. He pitched well, but was pretty inefficient. He threw two scoreless, no-hit innings and had a strikeout and a walk. The main problem was it took him 38 pitches to do so. With the expanded rosters that’s no big deal, but if the Twins were to test this during any of the other five months, that kind of an outing from a reliever would not be ideal.

 

Stephen Gonsalves followed as the primary pitcher. The good news: He pitched three no-hit innings and didn’t give up an earned run. The bad news: He walked four batters, which helped the Royals to score an unearned run thanks to a Jorge Polanco error. Gonsalves threw 69 pitches.

 

Alan Busenitz took over in the sixth. He gave up a double, then back-to-back home runs. Ouch. He threw 16 pitches, gave up three runs and failed to record an out. Matt Magill took over, but couldn’t get through the inning either.

 

Magill gave up a run on a pair of hits and a walk. He got two outs and threw 21 pitches. Andrew Vasquez took over and hit the first batter he faced, but the finally recorded the final out of the sixth. He threw 10 pitches.

 

Tally all that up and you get five pitchers combining for six innings, needing 154 pitches to do so. Not good.

 

Things settled back down from there, as John Curtiss pitched a scoreless seventh and Oliver Drake covered the eight, giving up an unearned run. An error was charged on Chris Gimenez’s throw to second base on a steal attempt, but it really should have been Polanco’s second error of the game. He whiffed on the catch, the ball just sailed right on by him.

 

The Twins held a 2-0 lead early thanks to a Jake Cave two-run homer in the second inning. They added two more runs in the eighth on an Eddie Rosario RBI single and a sacrifice fly by Robbie Grossman. That pulled them to within a run of KC, but the Royals added that insurance run in the bottom of the eighth and took care of business in the ninth.

 

Next Three Games

Fri at KC, 7:15 pm CT: Jose Berrios vs. Jorge Lopez

Sat at KC, 6:15 pm CT: Chase De Jong vs. Ian Kennedy

Sun at KC, 1:15 pm CT: Kyle Gibson vs. Jakob Junis

 

Last Three Games

MIN 3, NYY 1: Odorizzi Carries No-No Into 8th Inning

MIN 10, NYY 5: Joe Mauer Grand Slam Highlights Big Night for Bats

NYY 7, MIN 2: It Was Close, Until It Wasn’t

 

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[dougd]

Polanco needs to play outfield in winter league ball. 

[caninatl04]

There was exactly one player in the lineup from the opening day line up:  Kepler in RF.  One out of eight.

 

(OK, 1 1/2 if one includes Rosario as a DH).

 

It brings to mind the line from the movie Major League:

 

"Who are these guys?"

[Vanimal46]

Busenitz is pitching himself out of the Twins' plans next year.

[MN_ExPat]

At this rate... I'd have to fully agree with that.   Sigh.

[MN_ExPat]

 

Busenitz is pitching himself out of the Twins' plans next year.

It's almost tragically comical in a sense.   It seems like we see this so often with players throughout the league.   A guy has good or even great "stuff", but he just can't fully harness it.   I really hope that he can, and I'll continue to pull for him to do so, but... like you said, he just isn't getting it done right now.

[stringer bell]

As noted in the Minor League section, Busenitz was very good in Rochester this year. He has been poor with the big club. Last year, he was pretty good with the Twins.

[rdehring]

Everyone wanted to see all these young pitchers.  Well, we got em.  Maybe one of the reasons the front office wasn't pushing all these guys up is that they had a feeling they either aren't all that good or ready for the big show.

 

All those walks last night was worse than being in a dentist chair waiting for him to pull a tooth. 

 

Maybe the real pitching talent in the organization is further away, Class AA and lower.

[USAFChief]

Add Polanco to the list of Twins players for whom 2018 has been a year to forget. 

[mikelink45]

I have written in a blog about SS that Polanco is a bad fielder, last night was another example. 12 errors in 61 games and it would be at least one more if they got the call right on his miss of Gimenez throw to second. He also had no hustle and cannot claim to be tired since he missed half the season.  

 

Nice bat, 2B is open Logan Forsythe is reducing his average after a nice quick start with the club and Polanco should slide over here.  SS is too valuable for him to be our starter.

 

Busenitz is really disappointing, the opener idea is a farce, Gonsalves has disappointed.  Magill is not the answer. 

 

Play Astudillo to entertain the fans. 

 

Jake Cave is the one who is really standing out right now.  He continues to hustle and that is fun to watch.  Is Buxton watching?  

[Cap'n Piranha]

I don’t understand having an opener go more than one inning. If the theory behind the opener is to have him pitch to batters 1-3 (or 4) in the first inning, allowing the primary to begin his day with 4 or 5, and thus start his third time through the order with batter 4 or 5, getting two innings from an opener defeats this purpose. Since most pitchers have whips over 1, statistically speaking, if the opener goes two innings, the primary will start with batters 9,1, and 2, therefore negating most of the supposed benefit of the opener.

[rileyroy]

How long do we continue with Kepler in right field? Maybe a platoon of Kepler and Buxton next year, with Rosario and Cave starting the other outfield positions?

I agree that they should be playing Polanco at second to see if that is a viable option. Lewis and Gordon are probably a year away from being our middle infielders (or longer to save service time!)

[jtkoupal]

In retrospect, maybe there is a reason why Alan Busenitz was stashed away in AAA while guys like Belisle were getting innings! I'm a little bit joking, of course, but really, Buze has had a tough year with the Twins. 

 

You really notice how AAA success doesn't always correlate with MLB success. A lot of guys light up AAA. Many of them don't stick at the MLB level. When guys don't get the call when we think they should, it very likely means that they aren't as convinced it can translate to the bigs like we do. 

 

Based on his AAA numbers this year, I figured he would be in a good spot for a bullpen spot in 2019. That looks to be in doubt, as there will almost definitely be bullpen additions in the offseason, and probably several of them.

[jtkoupal]

Another thing,

 

It's amazing to me how walk-prone the entire staff has been, really.

Gonsalves: 17 BB in 15.1 Innings!!!!

Stewart: 15 BB in 24.2 Innings

Berrios (Post-ASG): 22 BB in 46.1 IP

Gibson (Post-ASG): 27 BB in 61 IP

Odorizzi: 64 BB in 155 IP

 

They all look fine compared to Gonsalves, but this walk rate, especially lately, is high for all of them. Some of it is simply September fatigue. Some is that you have some young pitchers getting their feet wet. All that said, the starters/primarys have not been good at limiting walks. 

 

Some bullpen notes:

Busenitz: 13 BB in 23.1 IP

Moya: 12 BB in 30.2 IP

Magill: 20 BB in 51.2 IP

 

Some work to be done there too

[stringer bell]

Aren’t the high walks the expected downside for getting away from pitch-to-contact and having a staff full of “strikethrowers”?

 

Another thing is that “putaway pitch”. Without it, long counts and eventually walks. Certainly, this is the case for Gonsalves. Some of the others have had the same phenomenon, probably Odorizzi more than anyone else.

[Tom Froemming]

 

I don’t understand having an opener go more than one inning. If the theory behind the opener is to have him pitch to batters 1-3 (or 4) in the first inning, allowing the primary to begin his day with 4 or 5, and thus start his third time through the order with batter 4 or 5, getting two innings from an opener defeats this purpose. Since most pitchers have whips over 1, statistically speaking, if the opener goes two innings, the primary will start with batters 9,1, and 2, therefore negating most of the supposed benefit of the opener.

Great line of thinking here. I embrace tinkering with new ideas, but the opener (at least the way the Twins have tried it so far) isn't really doing it for me. Your point above is another strike against it.

 

I definitely see the value in trying to avoid overexposure of your starter/primary pitcher, but this doesn't seem to be the way to accomplish that goal.

[AceWrigley]

I wonder if Greg Maddux could make a come back. Had pretty average stuff. Didn't throw that hard, but owned the edges of the plate. He'd throw it to either the inside edge or outside edge with great command, with just enough late movement in or out to keep the hitters guessing. And he seemed to be able to keep one step ahead of whatever the hitter's plan was. Very fun to watch him carve up a game.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

As noted in the Minor League section, Busenitz was very good in Rochester this year. He has been poor with the big club. Last year, he was pretty good with the Twins.

Pretty good results last year, but not peripherals. Busenitz had a 19% K rate in MLB last year. The Twins didn't bring back any reliever with a lower mark in 2017.

 

Similarly, I wonder how good his Rochester performance was this year, in context. 28.7% K rate looks good, but it was below that of Anderson, Harper, and Eades at the same level.

 

Good reliever performances like this don't seem to be predictive of much, if anything.

[nicksaviking]

 

Aren’t the high walks the expected downside for getting away from pitch-to-contact and having a staff full of “strikethrowers”?

Another thing is that “putaway pitch”. Without it, long counts and eventually walks. Certainly, this is the case for Gonsalves. Some of the others have had the same phenomenon, probably Odorizzi more than anyone else.

 

I think the good strikeout pitchers have stuff that can miss bats while staying in the zone. The pretender strikeout pitchers constantly try to get guys to chase. 

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

How long do we continue with Kepler in right field? 

5 years.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

 

Another thing,

 

It's amazing to me how walk-prone the entire staff has been, really.

 

 

 

Where's Rick Anderson when we need him?

[Channing1964]

Gosh I hope we can contend for something in 2019 besides a high draft pick. I just dont see it ....

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Where's Rick Anderson when we need him?

He's in Detroit! Gardy's pitching coach again:

 

http://m.tigers.mlb.com/roster/coaches/

 

Steve Liddle and Joe Vavra on that staff too...

[jtkoupal]

 

Great line of thinking here. I embrace tinkering with new ideas, but the opener (at least the way the Twins have tried it so far) isn't really doing it for me. Your point above is another strike against it.

 

I definitely see the value in trying to avoid overexposure of your starter/primary pitcher, but this doesn't seem to be the way to accomplish that goal.

I believe that the expectation of bringing the primary in to face the 7-8-9 is relatively unrealistic. The likelihood of the the opener going 6-up 6-down is pretty low. With the best hitters now stacked atop the lineup in most cases, it makes more sense to let the opener pitch the first inning and then bring the primary to start against the 4th or 5th batter.

[yarnivek1972]

How long do we continue with Kepler in right field?

As long as he continues to post a 2.7 bWAR. Kepler is not one of the problems with this team. People need to stop thinking he is.

[jtkoupal]

 

I don’t understand having an opener go more than one inning. If the theory behind the opener is to have him pitch to batters 1-3 (or 4) in the first inning, allowing the primary to begin his day with 4 or 5, and thus start his third time through the order with batter 4 or 5, getting two innings from an opener defeats this purpose. Since most pitchers have whips over 1, statistically speaking, if the opener goes two innings, the primary will start with batters 9,1, and 2, therefore negating most of the supposed benefit of the opener.

I have felt this way since day 1. I believe the Twins should continue to use the opener. However, they have to understand that the probability of retiring the top 6 hitters in any given lineup without giving up a walk or hit is very low. Realistically, one of the first three will get on base, so you bring the primary in to face the 5th batter. In most lineups, the #5 slot is where it starts to gradually ease up. However, if they are doing it a certain way, I'm sure they have good reason. Our opinions are meaningless.