Article: Where Are The Twins Getting It Wrong?

[rdehring]

 

Why is the 40-man roster a disaster?  Lets begin by looking at how several players who are on it have performed.  Gonsalves, not getting it done.  Ditto, Stewart.  Slegers, always a AAAA player.  Romero, probably a good one who is going thru his first year troubles.  Little, one they brought in who is a long shot.  Gordon, sure failed when promoted to AAA.  Wade, although not on the 40-man, ditto Gordon.  Busenitz, great at AAA, but last night was an example of what happens when they bring him up.  Duffey, don't know what the problem is but he ain't the pitcher he was his rookie season.

 

That's 9, or more than 20% of the 40-man.  Those of you contemplating some changes this winter had better hope you are right.  Unfortunately, there isn't a magic wand that is gonna fix it next year....well there is, its called Buxton and Sano.  Just don't know if that wand is gonna get turned on.

 

 

[Vanimal46]

Yes, but is that the responsibility of the CEO or the department head?

It's the responsibility of Derek Falvey, Chief Baseball Officer IMO.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

A strong lower level minor league system may simply indicate that the major league team has consistently been drafting high, due to poor won lost records annually. 

[Doomtints]

The front office might figure things out. They need more time.

 

- They chose to do nothing their first offseason. I can buy it that they were working on figuring things out internally (though I'm not sure doing both was impossible).

- Last year's trade deadline flip flop was laughable.

- They did a good job picking up people in the offseason, but they were not perfect. Morrison was nonsense, and the franchise mistreated Vargas one last time which finally broke him. I'm sure they love shouting "I told you so" from the rooftops after Vargas finally performed like they always wanted him to this year in the minors.

- They did a good job selling off people when the season was hopeless, though they won't be able to replace Pressly nor Escobar.

- They jacked up the bullpen because they weren't patient enough.

- Good leaders communicate. With everyone. If a worker doesn't know where he stands, he's not going to be happy and he's not going to perform well for you.

- Most of us have seen enough of Molitor. He doesn't do poorly enough to get fired (although 103 losses in between two >.500 seasons with mostly the same players ... hmmm), but mediocrity is his middle name.

 

What it boils down to is this team needs to 1) be more patient, 2) communicate better, 3) look at data just a little bit harder before making a move, 4) install their own manager.

Edited September 11, 2018 by Doomtints

[Channing1964]

wow is all I can say. I would love to know the average age of the posters to this thread. The Minnesota Twins I grew up with and the most recent successful teams(pre 2011) never resembled this mess AT ALL. Some of you would try to argue with me and say we couldn't beat the Red Sox, or the Yankees or the Astros this year anyway. These people support tanking a season with 60+ games to go. I assure you that those that concur with that decision are not season ticket holders. That being said, I remember 1987, everyone picked us to be swept out of the playoffs by the mighty Motor City Kittys. Our Twins had the 4th best record in the AMERICAN LEAGUE!! I would give my fortune to see you eat the crow if that would have happened last year. As a baseball fan you have to realize it takes a fair amount of good luck to win a title. If you dont believe me ask 1990's Brave Fan. All I ever wanted is for the Twins to be in it in September, and if they are, I know anything can happen. The Twin's Way taught me that. I wish i knew where that was now. Id rather make the playoffs and lose 10 years in a row than put up with this abomination even one more time. We didn't ask for this.

When Andy McPhail was hired he inherited an interim manager and he himself was not even prepared to be offered the position of General Manager of the Minnesota Twins. At that time a decision was made to bring Ralph Houk in as a sort of overseer or consultant to both Andy and the rookie field manager, a guy named Tom Kelly. Do any of you remember him? I wonder if he is available to help us fix this mess. Before none of us even care anymore.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

And most strikingly, they left Byron Buxton off the September roster, in a move transparently motivated by service time preservation.

 

LET!

IT!

GO!

ALREADY!

 

Buxton hitting below.200 for another month and risking injury, as he always does, through September would mean nothing for the team's future.

 

 

[Channing1964]

I dont owe them 5 years of my baseball fan life to get on the job training. If they are junior executive whiz kids then why arent they still working for the Rangers and Indians? I didnt see Texas blow up their team and trade Odor, Andrus, Beltre, Mazzara, Gallo, ir even DeShields. Remember them? They are the same guys that waxed our Twins 18-4 last weekend.

[beckmt]

 

The organization doesn't care about the players? 

 

The organization under the new regime looked at what happened last year and, in the off-season, rewarded the team by going out and spending money on free agent acquisitions, which, from I read, was greeted with enthusiasm by the clubhouse.

 

Something the FO has been loathe to do in the past.

 

Yet, the players brought in by Ryan didn't respond and step up.

 

Also, key players, players that were brought in by the previous FO, have struggled at the MLB level.

 

Sorry, this whole, "the organization doesn't care about the players" crap is another way to avoid the obvious: The players on the field aren't getting the job done.

The minute any orgainization becomes all business (or what have you done for me lately) and you are just a number, many people (players or workers) try, but do not care to be in that situation.  I am one of that type, my managers made all the difference in the world.  If they did not respect my work, it was better for both of us if I moved on.  

[ThejacKmp]

I'm not sure it's fair to compare the Twins to the Athletics and the Rays based on this year. Over the last three years, the A's averaged 70 wins and the Rays 76. Things happened to pop for the Rays and A's this year and they happened to pop for the Twins last year. Especially in a year where the Twins had so many issues with injuries and effectiveness that Oakland seems like it's gotten it easy (and they haven't).

 

We need a broader perspective than this year. And that pertains to a lot of the grousing about the Twins. We get it, this year went poorly. But overall this organization has an excellent farm system featuring some exciting players approaching or in the high minors, a solid MLB core, and payroll flexibility to augment weak areas.

 

This glass is 3/4 full people.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't see how anyone can say things are worse that all those 90 loss seasons.

Don't look now, but 2018 might be another 90 loss season (currently on pace for 88).

[ThejacKmp]

 

The problem is the Twins haven’t acted like a rebuilding team. As evidenced by signing guys like Lance Lynn and trading for Odorizzi. Those are moves of a team trying to contend. And further, let’s talk about the continued playing time for Petit, Field, Belisle, Forsythe. If this organizationis trying to rebuild, they are not doing so in a way that any other team has done.

 

The Lynn and Odorizzi contracts aren't anathema to a rebuilding effort - they really blocked no one, especially with Santana being injured and the young starters being predictably up and down. Those were short term moves to keep the team competitive.

 

And I don't think it's a rebuild and I'd be surprised if you could find the FO saying it is. This has been a retool and rightfully so. The Twins have the pieces to be competitive - it just didn't work out this year. They should be working for short term veteran moves that give the team a chance now while preserving resources for an upswing in the next few years.

[Doomtints]

 

I dont owe them 5 years of my baseball fan life to get on the job training. If they are junior executive whiz kids then why arent they still working for the Rangers and Indians? I didnt see Texas blow up their team and trade Odor, Andrus, Beltre, Mazzara, Gallo, ir even DeShields. Remember them? They are the same guys that waxed our Twins 18-4 last weekend.

 

True. The entire history of the Texas Rangers ball club can be summed up thusly: They are great when Nolan Ryan is running things ... and they're not so great when he isn't.

 

As for the Indians, they haven't lost a step, so it doesn't seem like the Twins nabbed anyone essential from them.

 

 

[beckmt]

 

I dont owe them 5 years of my baseball fan life to get on the job training. If they are junior executive whiz kids then why arent they still working for the Rangers and Indians? I didnt see Texas blow up their team and trade Odor, Andrus, Beltre, Mazzara, Gallo, ir even DeShields. Remember them? They are the same guys that waxed our Twins 18-4 last weekend.

 

Yes, the guy that runs them is Jon Daniels, and the reason for their position is that their pitching staff is worse than a dumpster fire, it is a full grown forest fire.  That will take far longer to fix, than the Twins patching holes into what is a fair pitching staff.  

Yes we have underperformed and the staff ERA is going higher as we give tryouts to pitching for next year, but we are in far better shape than Texas. 

[Vanimal46]

And most strikingly, they left Byron Buxton off the September roster, in a move transparently motivated by service time preservation.

 

LET!

IT!

GO!

ALREADY!

 

Buxton hitting below.200 for another month and risking injury, as he always does, through September would mean nothing for the team's future.

1. You don't know Buxton was going to hit below .200. Historically, September is the best statistical hitting month over his career.

 

2. This story isn't going away because nothing has been resolved yet.

 

3. Buxton getting called up wouldn't do anything for the short term future of this team, agreed. However, the FO chose to piss off one of their foundational players for the organization's short term benefit.

 

Imagine you at your own job. Working through injury, being a team player. You're 13 days away from getting a raise and other benefits. Instead your boss says we don't need you anymore this year. No one would take that well.

[Platoon]

When you look at Rochester, who would you want on the 40 right now. No one is in danger of being lost, as it can be recalibrated this winter. As to Dozier not being offered an extension or a new contract? Maybe that simply tells us, and BD exactly what it sounds like. Add to that the view that he couldn't wait to get outa here, and it is what it is. As far as for EE, he is just as attainable this winter in this situation,as he was this summer. Pay him, he comes back, don't he doesn't.

[Doomtints]

 

Buxton hitting below.200 for another month and risking injury, as he always does, through September would mean nothing for the team's future.

 

We all understand this viewpoint but many of us disagree. Buxton gets better by playing baseball, preferably with the Twins, not by sitting at home playing with his XBox while the Twins play on without him.
 

The Twins could have used this time to work on Buxton's skills AND work on fostering the relationship. Even sitting on the bench is better than sitting at home.

[TheLeviathan]

 

1. You don't know Buxton was going to hit below .200. Historically, September is the best statistical hitting month over his career.

2. This story isn't going away because nothing has been resolved yet.

3. Buxton getting called up wouldn't do anything for the short term future of this team, agreed. However, the FO chose to piss off one of their foundational players for the organization's short term benefit.

Imagine you at your own job. Working through injury, being a team player. You're 13 days away from getting a raise and other benefits. Instead your boss says we don't need you anymore this year. No one would take that well.

 

Buxton was not about a short term benefit.  There is room to criticize the FO, but their reasoning was the exact opposite of that.  

 

Buxton has largely been bad at his job, you should keep that in mind in your analogy too.  

[nicksaviking]

I think there are two main issues, one old school, one new school. As far as analytics go, I don't think this team is practicing what they preach. I just can't see any possible scenario where an in-depth dive supports giving players with no upside like Matt Belisle, Robbie Grossman, Johnny Field, Jake Odorizzi and so many of these other replacement level players so many looks. Maybe that weighs into Nick's last point, things are still coalescing, or maybe it speaks to the second to last point that there's a disconnect.

 

My other main issue is the absolute lack of energy and enthusiasm. I know it sounds like a cheap shot and it is in no way measurable, but I'm putting that on Molitor. I don't believe the stereotypical stoic and emotionless Minnesota demeanor is appropriate for managing a baseball team in this centruy I wouldn't be excited about coming to work if my boss looks like he just put his dog down every day.  

[ThejacKmp]

 

Per USAF Chief

"I can tell you one place where they're getting it wrong: take a look at the current 40 man roster, two years into their tenure.

Arguably worse than at any point in my lifetime. And none of what young talent they do have has been signed to a long term contract. Not one single player."

 

 

Bingo, bingo, and bingo! The Twins are in worse shape than at any time including 2016 and that includes the Manager. Molitor seems to be daring the FO to fire him with the lineups and batting orders he has been sending out there. "What are you going to do, fire me?" Only good news is that there should be absolutely no false hope for 2019 and absolutely no marketing slogan that can sugar coat the obvious. Proof in the pudding will be the Baltimore Orioles who crashed and burned this year. I predict they will out perform the Twins next year.

 

There is so much in this that is  reflexively negative.

 

1.) The 40 man roster is bad now because the Twins sold at the deadline. It’s supposed to be bad after that. You try random guys, you bring in mid-season free agents. Judge the Twins 40 man by the beginning of the year (talented!) or the beginning of next year (TBD but talented and augmented!)

 

2.) Worst in your lifetime? Are you two years old? Because the Twins teams of the early 2010s were undeniably worse, top to bottom. The 2016 team lost 103 games with Robbie Grossman as their second best hitter. The starting pitchers had a 5.39 ERA. If you think this year’s team is worse, you’re suffering from delusions. Unless you have some actual evidence to back up the absurd claims?

 

3.) I think people overestimate the ability to sign long-term contracts for young players. Yes Evan Longoria signed a deal but that doesn’t happen every day. Most of the Twins better young players have already signed decent contracts when they were drafted/signed. They have a nest egg and have every incentive to wait for free agency. There’s also value in waiting – this year’s Buxton season would be way more disappointing if you were paying him $8-10 million. Same with Sano. I’m for signing long-term deals with guys but I’m not naïve enough to think it’s easy to do or to blindly criticize a process about which I have no information.

 

4.) Do you really think that the front office isn’t involved in lineup construction? Molitor makes the decisions but I’m positive that they are weighing in and having a dialogue. You’re trying to create a fire where there is none. Stop it.

 

5.) I predict that you will never have to answer for the absurdity of that Orioles prediction. I’m going to try to remember it for next year but will almost certainly forget. I wish I could bet large sums of money with you on this (and am willing to). The Twins are a team that was in the playoffs last year, had a down year but still a lot of great pieces, and have a top 5-10 farm system with top-end talent to augment the current core. The Orioles are a historically bad team that sold off its top-end talent, has terrible contracts to veterans, and has a bottom ten system that lacks any high-end talent. They will almost certainly be a bottom-feeding team next year.

 

6.) You think the Twins have no hope for 2019? Are you crazy? I’m not saying they’re going to be favorites but let’s take the negativity down a notch or nine. The Twins have a good core of young pitching, solid upside pieces at six different positions (RF, LF, CF, 3B, SS, C), the payroll to address areas of concern (pitching, DH, 2B, maybe 1B), and are still in a terrible division (KC will be worse, Detroit is bottoming out, Chicago is still a few years away). There is every reason to have hope for next year, even before offseason moves. C’mon.

 

You’re being negative just to be negative. This isn’t Sportscenter, we don’t need hot takes. We need reasoned discussion. Work in some figures or evidence or analysis to support your rantings. Otherwise it’s really hard to take you seriously.

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

 

1. You don't know Buxton was going to hit below .200. Historically, September is the best statistical hitting month over his career.

2. This story isn't going away because nothing has been resolved yet.

3. Buxton getting called up wouldn't do anything for the short term future of this team, agreed. However, the FO chose to piss off one of their foundational players for the organization's short term benefit.

Imagine you at your own job. Working through injury, being a team player. You're 13 days away from getting a raise and other benefits. Instead your boss says we don't need you anymore this year. No one would take that well.

 

I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere that the FO chose not to call up Buxton without conferring with him. Am I missing something? Everyone in there Buxton-ness is assuming the player has been wronged significantly. So much so that I've seen articles on TD promoting/advising Buxton's agents to file a grievance with the Players Association. Based solely on speculation?

 

When this website starts favoring (continuously over 2+ weeks) a player, an under-performing one at that, to a point of calling for the team to be hurt for some perceived and unconfirmed wrong, then I as a reader start getting frustrated and confused.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wouldn't be excited about coming to work if my boss looks like he just put his dog down every day.

Although perhaps related to your other point, this roster is full of Old Yellers.

[Linus]

I think the characterization that they inherited a mess is inaccurate. The farm system was highly ranked and had quickly supplied Buxton Sano Kepler Polanco and Berrios. There are plausible excuses to give the new FO but this isn’t one of them

Edited September 11, 2018 by Linus

[ThejacKmp]

 

The minute any orgainization becomes all business (or what have you done for me lately) and you are just a number, many people (players or workers) try, but do not care to be in that situation.  I am one of that type, my managers made all the difference in the world.  If they did not respect my work, it was better for both of us if I moved on.  

 

Did you say the same things last year when the Twins were on their way to the playoffs? Were you complaining about them being numbers?

 

I love how 90% of the board has swallowed "The Front Office Sees Players As Numbers" hook line and sinker with no evidence. Like we never even validated that claim. Being analytical is not the same thing as being inhuman. I'm pretty sure that Flavine are just as human as TR, who also made hard decisions like trading AJ and Dougie when the time was right.

 

A hint: when you sound like a gasbag retired player complaining about how these kids don't know how to play like you did in the old days, it's perhaps time to dial it back a notch.

 

[Vanimal46]

Buxton was not about a short term benefit. There is room to criticize the FO, but their reasoning was the exact opposite of that.

 

Buxton has largely been bad at his job, you should keep that in mind in your analogy too.

Instead of operating in good faith and working with him on an extension over the remaining 3 years he's under control, they elected 4 years of control and torpedoed their chance at extension talks any time soon.

 

The early season slump is on Buxton. The remaining 40 some ABs out of 90 total this year are him playing with a broken toe and obviously hindering his ability to play. It's a lost season.

 

P.S. I would love to be largely bad at my job and win a Platinum Gold Glove award along with receiving MVP votes.

[USAFChief]

 

There is so much in this that is ridiculous and reflexively negative.

 

1.) The 40 man roster is bad now because the Twins sold at the deadline. It’s supposed to be bad after that. You try random guys, you bring in mid-season free agents. Judge the Twins 40 man by the beginning of the year (talented!) or the beginning of next year (TBD but talented and augmented!)

 

2.) Worst in your lifetime? Are you two years old? Because the Twins teams of the early 2010s were undeniably worse, top to bottom. The 2016 team lost 103 games with Robbie Grossman as their second best hitter. The starting pitchers had a 5.39 ERA. If you think this year’s team is worse, you’re suffering from delusions. Unless you have some actual evidence to back up the absurd claims?

 

3.) I think people overestimate the ability to sign long-term contracts for young players. Yes Evan Longoria signed a deal but that doesn’t happen every day. Most of the Twins better young players have already signed decent contracts when they were drafted/signed. They have a nest egg and have every incentive to wait for free agency. There’s also value in waiting – this year’s Buxton season would be way more disappointing if you were paying him $8-10 million. Same with Sano. I’m for signing long-term deals with guys but I’m not naïve enough to think it’s easy to do or to blindly criticize a process about which I have no information.

 

4.) Do you really think that the front office isn’t involved in lineup construction? Molitor makes the decisions but I’m positive that they are weighing in and having a dialogue. You’re trying to create a fire where there is none. Stop it.

 

5.) I predict that you will never have to answer for the absurdity of that Orioles prediction. I’m going to try to remember it for next year but will almost certainly forget. I wish I could bet large sums of money with you on this (and am willing to). The Twins are a team that was in the playoffs last year, had a down year but still a lot of great pieces, and have a top 5-10 farm system with top-end talent to augment the current core. The Orioles are a historically bad team that sold off its top-end talent, has terrible contracts to veterans, and has a bottom ten system that lacks any high-end talent. They will almost certainly be a bottom-feeding team next year.

 

6.) You think the Twins have no hope for 2019? Are you crazy? I’m not saying they’re going to be favorites but let’s take the negativity down a notch or nine. The Twins have a good core of young pitching, solid upside pieces at six different positions (RF, LF, CF, 3B, SS, C), the payroll to address areas of concern (pitching, DH, 2B, maybe 1B), and are still in a terrible division (KC will be worse, Detroit is bottoming out, Chicago is still a few years away). There is every reason to have hope for next year, even before offseason moves. C’mon.

 

You’re being negative just to be negative. This isn’t Sportscenter, we don’t need hot takes. We need reasoned discussion. Work in some figures or evidence or analysis to support your rantings. Otherwise it’s really hard to take you seriously.

You realize you're responding to two separate quotes, from two separate posters here, right?

 

As for the portion I wrote: the 40 man roster in 2016 looked a great deal better than it does today. In 2016, Sano/Buxton/Kepler/Rosario/Berrios et al were in the big leagues, 2 years younger, and still looked like a solid corps on the verge of emerging. There were good, major league quality pieces on the 40 man such as Dozier, Escobar, Nunez. Mauer was two years younger.  

 

The 40 man in 2016 was a great deal better than today.

 

If there's a comparison, it'd be to the 1980's, not 2016, in terms of 40 man rosters largely bereft of plausible upside.

 

And yes...I'm older than 2.

 

 

[Doomtints]

 

Worst in your lifetime? Are you two years old? Because the Twins teams of the early 2010s were undeniably worse, top to bottom. The 2016 team lost 103 games with Robbie Grossman as their second best hitter. The starting pitchers had a 5.39 ERA. If you think this year’s team is worse, you’re suffering from delusions. Unless you have some actual evidence to back up the absurd claims?

 

Exactly. The first couple of years of Ryan's second tenure allowed us to coin the phrase "AAAA players." No outfield, no pitching. I get depressed just thinking about it and this was over five years ago.

 

And heck, the first few years of Ryan's first tenure weren't any better. He took two teams that needed some work and gutted them completely without addressing the issues that actually needed working on.

[Doomtints]

 

 

I haven't seen it confirmed anywhere that the FO chose not to call up Buxton without conferring with him. Am I missing something?

 

This is literally what every article on the issue has stated, and the front office said so too....

[Blake]

 

It's the responsibility of Derek Falvey, Chief Baseball Officer IMO.

Fair enough.

[ThejacKmp]

 

I dont owe them 5 years of my baseball fan life to get on the job training. If they are junior executive whiz kids then why arent they still working for the Rangers and Indians? I didnt see Texas blow up their team and trade Odor, Andrus, Beltre, Mazzara, Gallo, ir even DeShields. Remember them? They are the same guys that waxed our Twins 18-4 last weekend.

 

1.) I mean, you do realize that the Rangers and Indians already had GMs right? That the way you become a GM is you come up under someone good and then other teams that don't have good GMs hire the assistants of good GMs to see if they can replicate that good work. You get that right? That's how the system works. If they were still working for the Rangers and Indians it would be because they weren't any good and no one else wanted them.

 

2.) The Rangers are a bad team because they kept trying to be middle-of-the-pack. And the Indians have a long history of trading away players to rebuild/retool.

 

3.) Yes, we should totally judge front offices by one game. That's the only fair way. Though I think you're not going far enough. We should judge them on one inning. Or maybe one batter? How about one pitch?

 

Here's another hint. If you're using phrases like "whiz kids" pejoratively, you're probably not making a reasoned argument.

[Doomtints]

 

 

Instead of operating in good faith and working with him on an extension over the remaining 3 years he's under control, they elected 4 years of control and torpedoed their chance at extension talks any time soon.

The early season slump is on Buxton. The remaining 40 some ABs out of 90 total this year are him playing with a broken toe and obviously hindering his ability to play. It's a lost season.

P.S. I would love to be largely bad at my job and win a Platinum Gold Glove award along with receiving MVP votes.

 

Exactly. He lead the team last year in WAR ... and he hit like crap most of that year too.

 

Buxton is valuable even when he isn't hitting, the MOST VALUABLE PLAYER ON THE TEAM.

 

Yes, this is a bizarre concept as it's something no one has ever seen before in baseball. Nonetheless, it's true.

If he's healthy, let the kid play. His hitting will only get better if he's playing baseball.

 

For a front office that is supposedly data-driven, they sure seem oblivious to a lot of data.

Edited September 11, 2018 by Doomtints